Greece heads to the polls

A hair's-breadth victory for the right is predicted, but time will tell.

The Greek polls have opened, and will stay open until around 4pm British time, with the first exit polls being released around 6:30. Although opinion polling isn't allowed in the country in the two weeks leading up to the election, various organisations have been conducting their own private polls, many of which reportedly point to the conservative New Democrats winning by a hair's breadth.

There are still a number of undecideds in the Greek electorate, however, and analysis has been devoted to trying to determine what is likely to swing them. Some jokingly suggest that the results of Saturday's football match against Russia (which Greece won in a surprise 1-0 result) may lead to the Greeks feeling more emboldened to elect a candidate who will stand up to Europe; others that it may make them feel better about the whole situation and just want to play along.

Something which may have a real effect on the polls was suggested by Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal: taxes. Owing to the backwards nature of the Greek tax system (which still involves paying much of the bills in person with cash), the caretaker government hasn't levied any taxes in the run-up to the election. But they are widely expected to be raised in the next couple of days, which means many Greeks are heading to their accountants:

Okay, so in the past several days people have begun preparing their post-election taxes, and they've been hit with sticker shock. The new austerity reforms have seen some major increases in tax bills for the average Greek... sometimes to the tune of 300-400 per cent, according to one person familiar with the intricacies of it all.

This has got people particularly angry, and it could be this trend which causes people at the last second to turn away from [the leader of the New Democrats, Antonis] Samaras with disgust, and vote for [the leader of the SYRIZA, Alexis] Tsipras.

Many in the European establishment see the election of Tsipras as the worst case scenario for Greece, fearing that it will lead him and Angela Merkel to enter into a game of chicken which will result in Greece being ejected from the euro. But the Financial Times is reporting that one even worse outcome may be about to occur; a hung parliament:

Private opinion polls showed that none of the parties would win a parliamentary majority. The centre-right New Democracy party had a three-point lead over the radical left Syriza coalition, but neither party would capture even 30 per cent of the vote, according to two private polls seen by the FT. . .

A delay in forming a coalition, or in the worst case, a recourse to a third election if negotiations fail, could cause Greek public finances to collapse. Officials at the finance ministry said last week that unless a delayed €1bn tranche of EU-IMF funding is paid, funds to pay pensions and public sector wages would be exhausted by July 20.

The World Bank's outgoing head, Rober Zoellick, has told the Observer that Europe is one step away from a "Lehmans moment", but much of his criticism was focused on the deleterious effects of uncertainty in Europe on developing nations. That uncertainty will either be cleared up, or magnified greatly, by events today.

Polling slips for the two main parties, SYRIZA and New Democracy, in a polling station in Athens. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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The problems with ending encryption to fight terrorism

Forcing tech firms to create a "backdoor" to access messages would be a gift to cyber-hackers.

The UK has endured its worst terrorist atrocity since 7 July 2005 and the threat level has been raised to "critical" for the first time in a decade. Though election campaigning has been suspended, the debate over potential new powers has already begun.

Today's Sun reports that the Conservatives will seek to force technology companies to hand over encrypted messages to the police and security services. The new Technical Capability Notices were proposed by Amber Rudd following the Westminster terrorist attack and a month-long consultation closed last week. A Tory minister told the Sun: "We will do this as soon as we can after the election, as long as we get back in. The level of threat clearly proves there is no more time to waste now. The social media companies have been laughing in our faces for too long."

Put that way, the plan sounds reasonable (orders would be approved by the home secretary and a senior judge). But there are irrefutable problems. Encryption means tech firms such as WhatsApp and Apple can't simply "hand over" suspect messages - they can't access them at all. The technology is designed precisely so that conversations are genuinely private (unless a suspect's device is obtained or hacked into). Were companies to create an encryption "backdoor", as the government proposes, they would also create new opportunities for criminals and cyberhackers (as in the case of the recent NHS attack).

Ian Levy, the technical director of the National Cyber Security, told the New Statesman's Will Dunn earlier this year: "Nobody in this organisation or our parent organisation will ever ask for a 'back door' in a large-scale encryption system, because it's dumb."

But there is a more profound problem: once created, a technology cannot be uninvented. Should large tech firms end encryption, terrorists will merely turn to other, lesser-known platforms. The only means of barring UK citizens from using the service would be a Chinese-style "great firewall", cutting Britain off from the rest of the internet. In 2015, before entering the cabinet, Brexit Secretary David Davis warned of ending encryption: "Such a move would have had devastating consequences for all financial transactions and online commerce, not to mention the security of all personal data. Its consequences for the City do not bear thinking about."

Labour's manifesto pledged to "provide our security agencies with the resources and the powers they need to protect our country and keep us all safe." But added: "We will also ensure that such powers do not weaken our individual rights or civil liberties". The Liberal Democrats have vowed to "oppose Conservative attempts to undermine encryption."

But with a large Conservative majority inevitable, according to polls, ministers will be confident of winning parliamentary support for the plan. Only a rebellion led by Davis-esque liberals is likely to stop them.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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