Assad's private emails show a leader in denial

On the anniversary of the Syrian uprising, private emails of Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma are p

On the first anniversary of the Syrian uprising, which has so far claimed the lives of 8,000 people, the Guardian has obtained a raft of emails from private accounts belonging to President Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma.

As Assad refused to stand down and the death toll grew from his brutal repression of protesters, the emails show the first family continuing to live in luxury. Emails show Asma Assad spending thousands of dollars ordering expensive goods on the internet -- including £10,000 on tables, chandeliers, and candlesticks from Paris -- while Assad uses a third party with a US email address to sidestep US sanctions against him and buy music and apps from Apple's iTunes.

The emails, accessed by anti-regime activists after someone believed to be in the president's inner circle passed them the usernames and passwords, give an insight into Assad's mindset and his coterie of advisers.

He appears to remain light-hearted, despite the bloodshed. If there was any doubt that promises of reform were not genuinely meant, it can be put to rest. In one email, he describes these reforms as "rubbish laws of parties, elections, media". Later, he emails an aide with a YouTube clip re-enacting the siege of Homs using toys and biscuits.

There is also reference to advice from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Both countries are suspected by international bodies of providing on the ground assistance to the regime, but have insisted their support is only moral.

Elsewhere, Asma's regular correspondence with Mayassa al-Thani, the Qatar emir's daughter, chills after Thani suggests that Assad should step down and offers the couple exile in Doha.

However, although the couple appear to be living in denial, continuing their comfortable lifestyle, there are points where the strain shows. On 28 December, Asma Assad is said to have emailed her husband to say: "If we are strong together, we will overcome this together ... I love you."

The Guardian has said that it cannot verify the emails beyond all doubt, but their checks indicate that they are not forgeries. You can read a selection of the emails here.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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Scotland's huge deficit is an obstacle to independence

The country's borrowing level (9.5 per cent) is now double that of the UK. 

Ever since Brexit, and indeed before it, the possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum has loomed. But today's public spending figures are one reason why the SNP will proceed with caution. They show that Scotland's deficit has risen to £14.8bn (9.5 per cent of GDP) even when a geographic share of North Sea revenue is included. That is more than double the UK's borrowing level, which last year fell from 5 per cent of GDP to 4 per cent. 

The "oil bonus" that nationalists once boasted of has become almost non-existent. North Sea revenue last year fell from £1.8bn to a mere £60m. Total public sector revenue was £400 per person lower than for the UK, while expenditure was £1,200 higher.  

Nicola Sturgeon pre-empted the figures by warning of the cost to the Scottish economy of Brexit (which her government estimated at between £1.7bn and £11.2.bn a year by 2030). But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose considerable austerity. 

Nor would EU membership provide a panacea. Scotland would likely be forced to wait years to join owing to the scepticism of Spain and others facing their own secessionist movements. At present, two-thirds of the country's exports go to the UK, compared to just 15 per cent to other EU states.

The SNP will only demand a second referendum when it is convinced it can win. At present, that is far from certain. Though support for independence rose following the Brexit vote, a recent YouGov survey last month gave the No side a four-point lead (45-40). Until the nationalists enjoy sustained poll leads (as they have never done before), the SNP will avoid rejoining battle. Today's figures are a considerable obstacle to doing so. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.