The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

The Lib Dems' poll woes continue

Why weak poll ratings will strengthen Clegg's hand ahead of the Budget.

By George Eaton Published 19 February 2012 12:00

Nick Clegg may have enjoyed a more favourable press recently but the Sunday polls make grim reading for the Lib Dem leader. A ComRes poll puts Clegg's party on 10 per cent, while the latest YouGov poll has them on just seven per cent (their joint lowest rating since the general election), with Ukip snapping at their heels on six per cent. If repeated on a uniform swing at the election, the YouGov figues would reduce the Lib Dems to a rump of nine seats. The much-touted "differentiation strategy" has yet to bear fruit.

Ahead of the Budget, however, low poll ratings are something of a blessing for Clegg. The weaker the Lib Dems' poll ratings, the stronger his negotiating hand. As James Forsyth reports in today's Mail on Sunday, the Tories are fearful that the Lib Dems could exit the coalition as early as the start of 2014 (a possibility increased by poor poll ratings) and are determined to keep them on board. In this case, that means giving Clegg at least some of what he wants in the Budget.

The Lib Dem leader is still pushing for an accelerated increase in the personal allowance (with the added support of Ed Balls) funded by a £16bn package of tax rises on the wealthy. On Monday night, David Laws, the Tories' favourite Lib Dem (and the only Lib Dem backbencher not to have rebelled in this parliament), will return to the fray, giving a major interview to Newsnight and supporting Clegg's demands, including the introduction of a "mansion tax" on properties worth more than £2m.

At present, it seems likely that Osborne will offer an accelerated increase in the personal allowance, which is due to rise from £7,475 to £8,105 this April, without making the full leap to £10,000. This will be funded by clamping down on tax avoidance (Osborne could introduce a "general anti-avoidance rule", a law that would require corporations to receive clearance from HM Revenue and Customs on their tax plans before implementing them) and by closing various loopholes, rather than a mansion tax. The Lib Dems have yet to convince their coalition partners of the merits of taxing wealth more heavily and income more lightly.

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Tags: Liberal Democrats Politics News Polls Guide

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24 comments

Sun, 2012-02-19 20:05 — Tacitus (not verified)

Some of you may find this worth reading....

http://eoin-clarke.blogspot.com/2012/02/full-story-of-camerons-visit-to-...

Makes you wonder what is really going on.

Sun, 2012-02-19 22:38 — Graeme (not verified)

Marco, the oracle.

It is might more likely that an economy driven into recession, and millions suffering poverty, are NOT going to vote Tory again. It is not just the LibDems lies. The whole government is based on lies, stupidity and cruelty.

USA gives a good example of a progressive government - growth up, and unemployment down.

Has Obsorne got a degree in ecomonics? Er, no.

Mon, 2012-02-20 00:46 — Seth Armstrong-Teeth (not verified)

The Lib Dems are still infinitely more preferable to the policy-bankrupt and weak Labour under Ed.

Mon, 2012-02-20 08:37 — Mizar (not verified)

@Seth, you might be Clegg's mother.

Mon, 2012-02-20 12:31 — Mark Pack (not verified)

In case anyone is wondering, the comment from "Mark Pack" isn't actually from me :)

Sun, 2012-03-04 00:56 — red mary (not verified)

Stuff this will be funded by clamping down on tax avoidance (Osbourne could introduce a general anti avoidance rule)given that George Osbourne has avoided £1.6M in tax and the Tory party are funded by tax avoiders (ie Lord Ashcroft) what are the chances of him doing that do you think? I would say Zero

Wed, 2012-02-29 00:33 — AlFee

Graeme.

Correct. He got a 2:1 in Modern History.
His only 'real' jobs were refolding towels at Selfridges, and then uploading the names of the dead onto an NHS computer.
From there it was Tory Central and Chancellor.
Wonder if he claims for hair dye as a 'necessary expense' ?
I see Clegg's gone from auburn to chestnut again. The man just can't make his mind up about which colour he's going to use to deceive us with next.

Sun, 2012-02-19 12:26 — Tacitus (not verified)

I'd have thought the exact opposite. Poor poll ratings for the LibDems would make them more likely to hang on to the end.

Given the current state of the polls they'd be annihilated if they caused an election now. much better to hang on in the hope things improve.

Sun, 2012-02-19 12:41 — Mizar (not verified)

Things are not going to improve.

Sun, 2012-02-19 12:51 — damianneum

Agreed. But there is a third way. The Lib Dems pull out of the coalition in 2014/15, while the Tories limp on as a minority government. This would allow the Lib Dems to attempt to differentiate themselves in advance of the election.

Sun, 2012-02-19 13:14 — Mizar (not verified)

If they do pull out, and presumably vote against the government, the voters will be left wondering why these fibbers voted through some of the most appalling attacks on the poor and vulnerable?

I think think it is a lose-lose situation for them. If they stick it out, they are toast. But if they do pull out, it makes them look even more duplicitous, and hence, er, toast.

Sun, 2012-02-19 14:05 — Social liberal (not verified)

7% 1% 10% who cares? Nick Clegg has defrauded voters by enabling the right wing economic destruction of everything that I hold dear. The NHS to be privatised. Education to be privatised. Tripling tuition fees despite an overt electoral platform not to. Now new plans to record every email & Internet contact of every UK citizen. The most disgusting right wing attack on democracy and civil liberties. The libdems and conservatives have no electoral mandate. Nick Clegg and many Libdem MPs should be in prison or prosecuted for fraud.

Wed, 2012-03-14 11:38 — Rosie (not verified)

"GeorgeE
19 February 2012 at 11:51

Do you honestly believe that the British people are that naive and that Lib Dem supporters will flood back in droves to a party that has not only shafted its supporters but has now been implicit in shafting the entire country out of its NHS?

If the Lib Dems' pulled out now, they may stand a slight chance in wooing some of its support back, but I wouldn't hold my breath. The only way open them now is to pull out of the coalition immediately, using the NHS as a main reason, get rid of Clegg and then slowly try to repair the damage. However, the Lib Dems love power too much and they are deluded enough to think that everyone will forgive them come election time. However, come election time there will be a massive campaign to show up the the Lib Dems for what they are and I really do not think they fully understand this or what is going to happen to them.

Sun, 2012-02-19 15:18 — Matt Thompson (not verified)

EU referendum. Now.

Civil liberties come hand in hand with civil responsibilities.

Sun, 2012-02-19 15:44 — Sid Cumberland (not verified)

This is just lazy thinking. You might as well poke about in a chicken's innards. About 5000 people have voted in actual elections this year:

Con 33%
Lib Dem 26%
Lab 22%

I'd be more worried if I were Ed Miliband.

Sun, 2012-02-19 15:52 — Graeme (not verified)

Thanks Sid, twaddle though.

Sun, 2012-02-19 16:33 — Marco (not verified)

Funny you brush over how shit labour are polling, for the tories to be level or leading is frankly unbeliable at this stage of the electoral cycle.

No gives a rats arse about the liberals. Looks like the general public are quite happy overall with how the Gov is doing.

Sun, 2012-02-26 10:08 — Steve (not verified)

Ha ha Ha.
Nick Cleggs journey to the Dark Side and the annihilation of the Lie Dem yellow Tories is nearly complete.

Sun, 2012-02-19 16:58 — paul barker (not verified)

Sid Cumberlands figures are correct except the numbers of votes involved, my fault for not reading my posts before I post them. In fact those figures are for 45 contests over 3 Months & involved 75,000 voters approx.

26% voted for The Libdems & 22% for Labour.
Of course real voters cant compare to the Glory that is Yougov.

Sun, 2012-02-19 16:58 — Graeme (not verified)

By the way, the LibDems are in the government.

Sun, 2012-02-19 17:31 — Stuff

"This will be funded by clamping down on tax avoidance (Osborne could introduce a "general anti-avoidance rule", a law that would require corporations to receive clearance from HM Revenue and Customs on their tax plans before implementing them) and by closing various loopholes, rather than a mansion tax."
A better solution can be found here:
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2012/02/19/why-we-need-a-genuine-gene...

Sun, 2012-02-19 18:33 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

"The Lib Dems pull out of the coalition in 2014/15"

If they did that they would damage their reputation with those who might seek them to form a coalition. So they will see it to the end.

At the next electrion the Libdems will say sorry for promises broken but will have a strong list of achievements. They are going to have a very good campaign.

Dont forget George, you have not factored in the issue of people facing a ballot paper and trying to bring themselves to put an X next to Labour when they remember what a mess the party left the country in. Chances are at the last second they will not be able to vote Labour and will give it to the Libdems instead of the Tories.

Sun, 2012-02-19 18:42 — Marco (not verified)

This obsession with seats is utterly ludicrous.

What is better 50 years of no power and 60-80 MP's or 10 years of power with most out of power with say 40-50 MP's?

The liberals have had more than their fair share in this Gov and can do things they could only dream about for decades.

Oh boo hoo they may lose a few lefty voters - who would probably have gone back to labour anyway!! The reality is they won't poll 7-8% in the election and you all know it, just like labour won't poll over 40% they will be more like 30-32% at best.

Polls are meaningless at this stage - when the election comes closer the tories will open up a commanding lead lefties will emigrate to labour and the liberals will vote liberal. It's not rocket science.

Sun, 2012-02-19 18:42 — Des Demona (not verified)

The Lib Dems will hang on as long as they can to the coalition in the hope that eventually people will forget that they renaiged on their pre-election pledge on student fees and propped up the totally undemocratic Tory attacks on the NHS, Education and Welfare. What bothers me more is Labour's ratings. An ineffectual leadership and an innefectual defence against Tory opportunism to dismantle social institutions in favour of private profit.
Some institutions are there for the good of all - not just for those who can make money out of it.