The Lib Dems' family feud on welfare

Party activists are seething about the welfare reform bill.

An awful lot of the Lib Dem grassroots spent last week feeling the pain of the betrayed spouse. And it's nothing to do with Chris Huhne

Two weeks ago it was all chocolates and flowers from those on high with the promise of the raising of tax thresholds, and all the arguments and flirtations with other party's policies seemed like another life. We wandered around starry eyed...

...until last Wednesday, when we walked into the smack of firm government, as our MPs - with some very notable exceptions - undid all the good work of so many members of the House of Lords on the Welfare Reform Bill. And it's left a lot of members of the party feeling bruised, bloodied and ignored.

They're not taking it lying down. And it's not just the usual suspects - right across the party, folk are asking our Parliamentarians just what were you thinking?

And what's really riled the troops this time - over and above the fact that they fundamentally disagree with lots of the Bill - is that, particularly where Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) is concerned, it flies in the face of party policy. A policy agreed not in some far distant conference in the long years of opposition, but last September, in Birmingham. And when they get answers - and it's to their credit that our MP's do front up - they don't like them much.

In other parties, policy is generally decided by a small elite. For example, in the Tories, it's pretty much one man, one vote, that man currently being called David. There are plenty in Labour who wish they could say exactly the same.

In the Lib Dems, it's meant to be different. In all those long years of opposition, the final decision on policy has rested with the members through conference. Which apparently worked fine then, but less well now we're in government - because our MPs appear to find themselves conflicted.

Should they represent the views of the party, their own opinion , or the will of the people -like it or not, the welfare reforms are hugely popular with the electorate at large. And to be fair, it's a conundrum Lib Dem backbenchers struggle with over and over again. Every single backbencher in the parliamentary party has rebelled against the government at least once since May 2010, bar one (step forward David Laws).

Nevertheless, there are a lot of disgruntled Lib Dem activists sitting at home right now seething about the WRB. And questioning the way we agree - and execute - policy as a party. There's going to be a right old barney about it, and we'll do well to keep much of it behind closed doors. But I hope we do.

Letting family feuds spiral into the public domain seldom ends well for anyone involved, does it....

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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