Hans Blix: How do we stop Iran getting the bomb?
A preview of our exclusive essay by the former chief UN weapons inspector.
By Samira Shackle Published 15 February 2012 16:51
In this week's New Statesman cover story, the former chief UN weapons inspector and ex-head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Hans Blix offers a diplomatic alternative to military action against Iran - and warns that any such attack by the west would be illegal and catastrophic:
If Iran were to be bombed, it would be another action in disregard of the UN Charter. There would be no authorisation by the Security Council. Iran has not attacked anybody and despite Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's wild, populist declarations that Israel should be wiped off the map there is no imminent Iranian threat that could be invoked to justify pre-emptive action.
Blix says he does not believe that the Iranian regime is trying to build or acquire nuclear weapons:
It is possible - but is denied by Iran and not evident to me - that there is a determination to make a nuclear weapon.
The former director of the IAEA points out that the much-discussed report on Iran released by the UN's nuclear watchdog in November 2011 "did not . . . conclude that Iran was making a weapon or had taken a decision to make one". And he issues a stark warning on Iran to the agency's current head:
In my view, the agency should not . . . draw conclusions from information where the supplier is not ready also to show evidence. Both Mohamed ElBaradei and I were careful on this point and I hope the present director general of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, follows that line. The agency should not risk its own credibility by relying on data that it cannot verify fully.
Blix says "bombing Iranian nuclear installations may be a path to disaster rather than to a solution" and condemns the "outrageous, gangster-style" killing of Iranian scientists. He writes:
Iranian leaders are not going to sit quietly and twiddle their thumbs . . . A war in the Gulf and skyrocketing of oil and gas prices are not exactly what a financially troubled world needs right now. Furthermore, not all relevant installations in Iran would be destroyed. Some may not be known. The capacity and know-how to produce more centrifuges will survive and after armed attacks the Iranian government, which many now hate, may get broad support in a nation feeling humiliated by the attack. If there was not already a decision to go for a nuclear weapon it would then be taken.
The former chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq calls for the establishment of a "nuclear-weapon-free zone" in the Middle East as a solution to the impasse over Iran:
To many, the idea of an agreement between the parties in the Middle East - including Israel and Iran - to renounce not only the possession, acquisition or development of weapons of mass destruction, but also the means of their production, might seem very remote. It does not seem far-fetched to me.
It would, to be sure, call for many difficult arrangements, including verification going beyond IAEA safeguards, as well as outside security guarantees and assurances of supply of nuclear fuel for civilian reactors. It would require that Israel give up its nuclear weapons, stocks of fissile material and capability to produce enriched uranium or plutonium. It would require Iran to do away with its enrichment plants and a number of other installations. All states in the zone would agree between themselves not to acquire or develop capabilities for the enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium.
And he explains why this arrangement would appeal to all sides.
To subscribe to the New Statesman or purchase this issue, click here
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists




















79 comments
@Sir M
i use the copy/paste function more and more to spare my keyboard.
am finding that old replies to Julia, coleridge and other shallow-enders are most apt when 'debating' with sven...
@coleridge
"Israel has every right to defend itself against the islamofascist threat posed by Iran."
and pray tell how Iran will carry out this threat? Israel is a nuclear power, and has many nuclear allies. Iran has neither. fact.
"If Iran states quite openly that it it intends to annihilate it"
ditto. how the hell can Iran achieve what you believe is the sole purpose of this Iranian regime when Israel has nukes but Iran does not?
why are you so impressed and terrified by the rhetoric of a few nutters? this current 'crisis' is like a walk in the park compared to the Cold War. how on earth did you manage to cope with that era, or are you too young to remember it?
@JJ
"When I talk about Jews I tak about the Jews in Israel"
since 25% of Israelis are not Jewish, one has to wonder what your agenda is when you appear to insist this purely about Judaism vs Islam, and that this is all about the Holocaust.
care to explain?
The lack of self-awareness by some of the fanatics posting here is an exercise in defining irony.
Bomb, maim, and kill for peace.
We must kill, because we are not dangerous.
They have bizarre laws and customs, believing ridiculous things and punishing people arbitrarily for things beyond their control. We must enlighten them with our ideas that poor people are just being lazy and the best way to deal with poverty is to starve it, so that it "encourages" people to not be so poor.
We must completely ignore studies in political science which state that our own actions are what is fueling the Islamic jihad and rely on our own beliefs, because beliefs are bad.
We must foster regime change, because unelected politicians taking arbitrary harsh actions while their citizens riot in the streets and cause civil disorder is bad. But we must arrest our students, cut the benefits of rioters, and give them artifically long sentences too.
We must order such nations to not censor dissenting opinion, but we must also welcome tabloid yobbos into our corridors of power, shut down places like Press TV, and hold inquiries into the behaviour of the BBC when it runs stories about weapons of mass destruction.
We must prevent any of these nations from gaining any weapons, we must also insure that Israel (who have ignored many UN mandates) are armed to the teeth.
Pot, meet kettle.
Don't the appeasers of Islamic fundamentalism appreciate the naïveté of their position? Ahmadenejad and Khamenei have repeatedly stated that their objective is the annihilation of israel. Do the appeasers seriously believe that the israelis are just going to sit back and allow this to happen?
The free world has a choice. Stop Iran's drive for nuclear technology by non-military means or watch the Israeli Air Force, it's arsenal of Gabriel Missiles and it's commandos take out Islamist Iran's capability to produce WMD.
@Julia
"Oh do me a favour, "he doesn't believe", "they deny it", "its not evident to me", what a load of supposition and very weak presentation."
supposition based on the nov 2011 IAEA report, and US Defence Secretary Panetta was on record just last month stating categorically that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. So Blix is not making stuff up, you are though.
you've been told these facts on other threads, yet here you are again posting your screeching hysteria and demand we ignore the experts.
as ever you only manage to portray yourself as unfit to participate in reasoned debate. you are clearly utterly unhinged.
@Coleridge
"Don't the appeasers of Islamic fundamentalism appreciate the naïveté of their position?"
so according to you, anyone who dares request we deal with facts rather than fiction is automatically an "appeaser" of Islamic Fundamentalism?
how very infantile. unless that is not what you meant to imply of course...
"Ahmadenejad and Khamenei have repeatedly stated that their objective is the annihilation of israel."
since they don't have any nukes, and have no way of carrying out their aspiration, how do you believe they will annihilate Israel then?
or did such a direct and basic question never enter your mind?
If the Israelis feel so threatened by the Iranians then they should shed their own blood attacking Iran and face the consequences. In reality they are reluctant to do because the last attack on Iran resulted in a war that lasted 8 years and cost over a million casualties. Far better to drag in the dumb Goyim to help with the dirty work but this will require Zionist agitators of a higher caliber than the dross on this site to push us into another catastrophic war.
@Parkour
your questions answered in reverse order;
i don't view the Iranian administration in a favourable light at all. i think they are a vile theistic totalitarian regime.
no i do not feel comfortable with the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons.
and there is no apparent hypocricy, only rank hypocricy when we allow Israel to have nukes, but not be signed to any treaties (i.e. NPT), and refuse monitoring by the rest of the International Community. where is the IAEA report on Israeli nukes?
and of course Iran would like to have nukes. i would think any nation, living in a nuclear world, that did not aspire to have these weapons as certifiably insane. you would not i take it?
but none of this means Iran should be allowed to get them. rather, we need to get all our ducks in a row when trying to dissuade them from going down that route. the facts are right now that Iran does not have them, nor do they have the capability. so why allow the hysterical to dominate debate?
Scary people you lot, very scary.
Sorry to nitpick, but the title should read, "How do we stop Iran FROM getting the bomb", should it not?
Jackass you are beside yourself. Go back to Islamabad, stone some of your incredibly ugly women to death and when you have calmed down come back to the UK.
"Oh do me a favour, "he doesn't believe", "they deny it", "its not evident to me", what a load of supposition and very weak presentation."
He was right about Iraq though wasnt he, so lets not dismiss it out of hand just yet.
Jackass what an incredibly stupid position you take. The point here is to prevent the islamofascist Iran regime from getting the bomb. You may not be concerned about this prospect in Islamabad. The free non-Moslem democracies take a different view.
its worrying to see that as time goes by, the loony left dont seem to shed any of their naivety - in fact its frightening.
The politics of nuclear weapons are confusing. Back in the 60s, 70s, and 80s we were told we needed them to keep us all safe. If owning nukes amounts to safety then we really should be giving Iran a few more to even things up.
Perhaps someone could explain my difficulty in understanding all of this.
The other argument is that some people shouldn't be allowed to have them. Iran is disqualified because it has a government the people didn't actually vote for, it fiddles elections, and it lies about weapons of mass destruction. And apparently people like that shouldn't be able to have access to dangerous weapons.
People are bringing up Israel a lot here, and indeed the two nations are very different. Iran has only ever said it would destroy a country, Israel didn't beat about the bush and just went right ahead and did it. Also Iran is sometimes boastful about its nuclear tests, while Israel concealed its nuclear weapons program, going so far as to jail the person who revealed their nuclear capability for 17 years. This is a much more wholesome method of aquiring weapons of mass destruction that we should feel safe with.
Yes coleridge, because the non-Muslim democracies are influenced by tabloid hysteria and not by fact.
Since when did the notion that we listen to experts become an "incredibly stupid position"?
@Coleridge
so there's absolutely no chance you will post anything other than insults?
gosh, who's a clever boy then?
@sean
care to explain what you've spotted that is so naive, and, frightening? and of course what you'd do instead?
There is a concise explanation of why so many active Zionists prefer to live on a distance from their professed fatherland: http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/17/the-suicide-state/
People like Melanie Phillips like Western freedoms but want to feel special. In the absence of real talent they find salvation in ethnocentricity. Einstein was free of this ridiculous sense; Wittgenstein was not interested in Jewish chosiness, but many Melanie Phillips cannot survive without the cherished notion of racial superiority. It is true that Iran is more alien for Europeans than Israel thanks to Jewish Diaspora’ deep connections to European culture (even if today Israelis practice their culture with an invented language). However, it was not Middle East that invaded Western world in search of natural resources but vice versa. What is wrong with protecting the native families and the culture that is thousands of years in continuity? Why should the US and UK sacrifice their men and women in uniform (and the financial resources) for the sake of religious fundamentalists in Israel? Both countries have their good and bad. The demonization of the whole population by the Zionist crowd rings some very painful memories.
Maria you are the highly intelligent being that recently posted your view that it was Bolshevik Jews who invented the gas chambers!
Interesting how islamists, nutters and neo-nazis are all vehement in their belief that Iran should not be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons..
By the same token I take it that you oppose the UK upgrading Trident or even possessing the bomb! But islamofascist Iran? Why not?
@ Julia: bombing key sites, is by the act itself a declaration of war, what else could you call it, gentle persuasion, are you trying to be ironic? You make me laugh.
You and your kind know nothing of the mechanism of war. Sit in your armchair and spectate - marvel at the spectacle of it all.
You'll have that luxury, the forces on both sides won't have the same privilege.
@Gregory
"Interesting how islamists, nutters and neo-nazis are all vehement in their belief that Iran should not be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons.."
if you are referring to anyone on this thread would you be so kind and supply the post that states this? for the life of me i kind find any such a thing here, but you can? then where is it..?
Jankass, you are hysterically funny, please don't stop posting, we are all having a good laugh at you. LOL.
The question might be how do we stop anybody from making massively harmful weapon.According to Cory Doctorow anybody could make a bio-weapon with a laptop and a 3D printer. http:
//iai.tv/video/technology-and-anarchy
Er Zeeshan I don't think the Iranian people did vote for the ISPs fascist regime in power. If you remember in 2009 Ahmadenejad stole the election and then violently suppressed the 'Green Revolution' that followed by butchering his own civilians much like his fellow dictator Assad is doing in syria today.
capt-price – I didn’t realise your were a military man, don’t tell me you were in the cooking battalion at the battle of scrabble egg? I would sanction the bombing of key sites if evidence of bomb making is found. The US has openly said it would stop Iran developing a bomb (if it were revealed) so the question is why aren’t the Iranian’s being transparent and suffering these crippling sanctions - if they had nothing to hide?
Not that I have anything to justify to you or that I seek your approval you jumped little man, you don’t know my kind, you don’t know me. I would guess that you haven’t had several members of your immediate family that have been murdered by fascists? That allows me a much deeper understanding of loss and to look at threats with a greater sense of reality. Further I have friends and family in the firing line if this all kicks off so I am not making flippant comments, and hey guess what I have also served in an Army...so please don’t speak to soon when you get on your self-righteous pedestal telling me who I am and what I stand for.
@julia
do israel have nuclear weapons? has anybody inspected them? has israel ever declared war on anybody? has iran?
To answer this, let's try another approach.
Imagine for a moment that the U.K. developed a new type of nuclear techonology that's perceived to be "a threat" by the U.S. Obama and Hillary try privately to convince Cameron to stop development, and he refuses. Then, they go public and talk escalates into possible UN sanctions. Cameron, Clegg, Hague and others respond with various soundbites (we are a sovereign nation, we have the right to defend ourselves in an uncertain world, and so on).
Now, if you're British, how do feel if Obama's trying to tell you what to do?
Do you:
(a) agree with Cameron that you're a sovereign state and have the right to protect yourself?
(b) tell Obama to sod off and deal with his own problems?
(c) give into his demands and only continue development if everything is approved by the White House first?
Even if you agree that Ahmadenejad is a crackpot, that doesn't change the fact that Iran is a sovereign nation. If Cameron really believes that Iran is a threat (diplomatic code for "terrorist state"), why not say right. Starting from today, we're withdrawing our embassy in Tehran and are no longer a signatory to any agreeements that would limit our ability in any way to attack Iran.
The reasons this won't happen? Money and power. If there's potential profit for U.K. firms in Iran, we're there. If we can manipulate intl. law to ensure our "national security interests"(profit and power) are protected, we'll do it. Everybody else does it. So why shouldn't we?
This pre-war hype and actual fighting are a gold mine for everyone concerned:
the MSM "expert pundits"
the defense industries
the arms dealers, lobbyists and others
lawmakers who have defense industry investments.
Instead of even more pre-war hype, why not do the opposite? Today in the Strait of Hormuz, absolutely nothing whatsoever happened. How many views would that You Tube clip get?
For god sakes sven king. Even more idiots coming out of the woodwork aren't there?
Ok class. Can someone please point out what happened last time we ignored Hans Blix concerning weapons of mass destruction and Middle Eastern nations whos name starts with "Ira"?
Scientists have a method of measuring intelligence among animals in a lab. It is the number of repetitions of a task it takes the animal before it understands it is doing the wrong thing. We have been fucking up the Middle East for DECADES now, and all we are getting back is bodies (and cheap oil).
Some of you need to actually get the idea that stomping around in that corner of the world isn't a great idea before some scientist decides to dissect your brain to find out what's wrong with it.
"you don’t know my kind, you don’t know me."
but some of us have your number Julia;
1) you're a bigot.
2) you are totally ignorant of the history & politics of the region.
3) you refuse to analyse and review your position when presented with conflicting evidence. especially when your data is put into context.
4) you resort to insult when cornered.
that about sums you and your kind up?
"Jackass what an incredibly stupid position you take."
and what a rude little man you remain Trolldirge...
i see that Sir M has already highlighted the main problem of your position. no doubt you'll just ignore this salient point?
Take a notice that the most rabid pro-war posts here belong to the special kind of Zionists—those that love their ‘historical fatherland” from a safe distance. This ethnocentric belligerent kind prefers to live in the multiethnic lands of the UK and the US. Just imagine that “Julia Harris” and “Coleridge” and other Melanie Phillips become grouped with the broad range of Semitic people as aliens by the “proper” Englishmen. The Zionists’ squealing and whining would be deafening. Yet they are quite happy to be on a same page with the Avigdor Lieberman, a former Soviet with a checkered past and open racist advocating “loyalty oath” for all non-Jews in Israel.
Respect intl. law for a start.
@tom
"This pre-war hype and actual fighting are a gold mine for everyone concerned:
the MSM "expert pundits"
the defense industries
the arms dealers, lobbyists and others
lawmakers who have defense industry investments. "
absolutely spot on mate
JJ - "When I talk about Jews I tak about the Jews in Israel, the survivors and the descendants of the victims and survivors of the Holocaust" - quite a strange description then since many Israelis are not Jews and fewer still are "survivors and the descendants of the victims and survivors of the (Jewish)Holocaust".
Operation Barbarossa was the Axis invasion of the Soviet Union which some now claim was a preemptive strike, a claim Israel often makes to justify its aggression. Only a rabid Zionist could see a reference to the Jewish Holocaust in this. That I use the name of a Cherusci Chieftain who fought the Roman Empire as my ID leads you to wonder what my "agenda" is indicates that you have obviously strayed into tin-foil hat territory.
I have not condemned "mad mullahs in Iran" as I don't do requests to please Zionist nutters but I hold them in no higher regard than I do the mad Rabbis and fascists in Israel. My main concern is that no more British soldiers die in a war in the poxy sandpit that is the Middle East for the benefit of others.
BTW....the Wehrmacht usually referred to Partisans as bandits rather than "terrorists' during WW2. The fact is that some of them were bandits/terrorists and were/are wanted for war crimes in Poland and the Baltic States.
has anyone actually used an atomic bomb?
answers on a postcard please
@ Jackass,
1) Its a good job I and others don't take anything you say seriously, I know your really in love with me as you get so upset if I don't respond to your posts.
2) Ditto about taking anything seriously, I have presented so much fact but the facts don't mean anything to you, you just cast your own view.
3) No conflicting anything my simple minded friend.
4) I result to insults when I am being insulted and I am happy to insult those that are criminally stupid i.e there stupidity is dangerous to us all.
I have argued my position and made more valid and reasoned points backed up with evidence than any of you. Please don't try and tell me I don't know what I am talking about.
Jackass, as I have said before, your an idiot with delusions of grandeur, your little insights are not really that insightful and your cutting remarks don't really cut it, poor 1/10, try harder.
"Jankass"
fine be like that sven...
thanks for proving me right about you; you have nothing on-topic to contribute.
so why not just piss off rather than show off what an ignorant dick you are?
@Sir M
"Ok class. Can someone please point out what happened last time we ignored Hans Blix concerning weapons of mass destruction and Middle Eastern nations whos name starts with "Ira"?"
i'll answer that on behalf of Julia, sven, and coleridge;
everything worked out really well for us, and we have been reaping the benefits ever since. by ignoring Blix, ignoring UN requirements, treating all Islamic nations as primitive murderous scum, and occupying as much territory as possible in addition to financially propping up corrupt nations, we have finally brought a lasting peace not only to the entire region, but to the globe. for ever and ever amen. see a Muslim - kill kill kill, before they eat all our babies.
there. that's about the extent of their reality, no? do they pass...?
Listening to experts is apparently now "criminally stupid".
Talking about "delusions of grandeur" in a blog where your basic premise is "this man is a fool! What can the former head of the Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency possibly know about nuclear weapons? I am the real expert!"
Your lack of self awareness is truly incredible. I think that one day there is going to be a fancy name for your illness.
@Julia: Do me a favour you churlish woman! Your opening gambit let's you down and underscores my previous post!
However, have it your way, there's no middle ground with you it would seem.
You have no fuckin idea do ya!!!
@ Maria, not sure what you’re getting at, it doesn't seem to make sense. I am quite happy living in the UK, unlike many Muslims who would like to see Sharia implemented here. You no doubt are a horrible left wing nut case or a Islamist, or both and so we know your wicked agenda.
@ Capt price , I’m not asking for war, I’m asking that people pay real attention to Iran and keep up the pressure so as to prevent them from producing a bomb. If war is inevitability then the tactical bombing of key nuclear sites in Iran opposed to the Nuking of Tel-Aviv or anywhere else would be my preference.
Just because people don’t want to see Iran have a bomb doesn’t mean to say we are all war mongers, just that we are concerned about. Idiots Like Jackfuk and Sir Madfuk are too stupid to realise this. They just keep try to making excuses for Iran and call anyone who is concerned by them Bigots or Warmongers etc etc.
We covered most of this on theMehdi Hassan Ian Dale thread whereby I demolished and dismantled Jackwanks mild attempt at making a solid argument. Read it all there, I cant be arsed going over it again with the same fools.
"Jackfuk and Sir Madfuk"
"Jackwanks"
and in a hail of insults Julia takes the ball...glad to see i caused you so much upset, couldn't have happened to a nicer bigot.
Stop the islamic government of iran sucking wine gums.
Then they will readily admit that they have the nucleur capacity of a person on too much gaviscon.
They will then face reality, an aspect their religion does not allow.
This will then result in a period of total rationality.
They have no nuclear capacity and they have a religion that is based on total bananas. Both are false.
Both keep the people down.
If the iranian government couldn't blame the infidel for its problems, they would be an oil rich state with nuclear weapons. Luckily, they can blame the west for their lack of humanity on the wests lack of religion. This results in the west having oil rich nations with nuclear weapons.
Long live the success of the west, based on the islamic repression through religion of its peoples on blaming the west. a win win situation for the west.
The secular rich west thrives on the supression of people by religion. It makes sense for us.
Julia, Hans Blix is one of the worlds foremost experts on WMD. This was the man who told us there wasn't anything significant in Iraq. His words were ignored, and the consequences were an increase in terrorism, the loss of thousands of civilian lives and military lives alike, a decade long occupation, and a bankrupt world economy.
Put partizanship aside for a minute. Is it worth ignoring him a second time?
And if we are going to ignore experts why bothing having them at all? Why not just invade, bomb, and attack everyone who *might* have something we don't like?
Let's hope that the regime's ‘very great nuclear achievement’ blows up in its face.
Save us all a lot of trouble.
We're have to use the same methods we used to prevent Israel getting the bomb, won't we?
Shouldn't we discuss Israel's 300 nuclear warheads?
War with Iran is a truly fearsome prospect.
Its likely consequences would include attacks on US air bases from thousands of Iranian missiles, the unleashing of terrorist attacks within the US and Europe, the rocketing of Israeli towns from the tens of thousands of missiles trained on Israel from Lebanon, the closing of the Straits of Hormuz thus paralysing western oil supplies, and doubtless other horrors.
But however fearsome this prospect, that of a nuclear-armed Iran is worse. The consequences are simply insupportable.
A regime which has seen itself at war with the west ever since it came to power in 1979, and which has been involved in arguably every major terrorist atrocity against it, will be equipped with nuclear weapons to bring the west to its knees. Working as it does through puppet rogue regimes and terror organisations, it could perpetrate acts of nuclear terrorism – or threaten to do so.
It could mount its long-threatened attempt to wipe Israel off the map, thus provoking a nuclear response to prevent a second genocide of the Jews. Last but by no means least, it will spark a nuclear arms race throughout the region, thus ensuring that nuclear weapons come under the control of some of the most unstable and belligerent regimes on earth. To all these threats and more, the west will be paralysed by Iran’s nuclear capacity, just as it is currently paralysed over North Korea.
This is a nightmare to which the west seems to have woken up only very recently, with the hands on Iran’s nuclear clock fast approaching midnight. Now it has sprung into action. The EU has imposed tough sanctions, including a freeze on the assets of the Iranian central bank within the EU, hitting Iranian oil exports for the first time. With the rial falling on the stock market, Iran threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. The US responded by sailing two aircraft carriers through the Straits. Iran did not close them. The US said Iran had blinked first. Iran said the same of the US.