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The latest Eurosceptic move is Cameron-friendly

100 Tory MPs have today called on the PM to do something he would almost certainly do anyway. Their

More than a hundred Conservative MPs have written to the Prime Minister - via the Daily Telegraph - demanding he resist the transfer of certain justice and policing powers to Brussels. So, another rebellion brewing, indicating division in the Tory ranks and threatening to destabilise David Cameron? Er, no, actually.

This is no belligerent broadside from the intransigent europhobic ultras. The names on the list include the usual and predictable suspects. Bill Cash is on there, so are Edward Leigh and Bernard Jenkin. But there are also new MPs from the 2010 intake - Chris Skidmore, Charlotte Leslie, Priti Patel, Kwasi Kwarteng, Dominic Raab, Charlie Elphicke (those last two being, apparently, the organisers of the thing). These are thrusting, ambitious types, tipped for big things in the future. They are not the sort to casually blot their copy books with ill-judged campaigns that might embarrass their most vital potential patron in Downing Street. A key signatory is George Eustice, a former press spokesman for Cameron and, in a past political life, a candidate for Ukip. He represents the overlap between the new MPs' raw eurosceptic instincts and their preferences not to come across as troublemakers.

Many of the signatories would only have put their names to this missive with reassurance that no harm to their future careers would be done by it. Indeed, it is not so far-fetched to suppose that the Tory whips and Number 10 are supremely relaxed about this manoeuvre. Supportive, even.

Why? The move the letter urges is not as demanding as it might seem. In most respects, "repatriating" powers from Brussels would require a difficult negotiation, re-opening past treaties, building alliances with like-minded governments elsewhere in Europe and offering concessions to secure a deal. That much Cameron found to his cost when demanding special protection for the City in December (in a way that amounted to a repatriation of certain regulatory powers). The answer was an unequivocal and swift "no".

But what the Telegraph letter refers to is the exercise of an "opt out" - which just to confuse matters is really the selective exercise of an "opt in" - with regard to combined European Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) policy. This is a fast-growing body of European law to cover cooperation between different national jurisdictions on matters such as extradition, arrest warrants and, most controversially, asylum and immigration. The theory behind integrating policy in these areas is that migration issues and crime are plainly borderless enterprises, so EU policy should evolve to reflect that fact.

The idea of ceding authority over aspects of the British justice system to EU institutions is anathema to the Tories. It didn't much appeal to the last Labour government either and the UK negotiated the right to "opt in" to measures in this field on an ad hoc basis. Under the Lisbon Treaty, Britain continues to be able to pick and choose when it comes to participation in JHA measures but not forever.

After the 1 December 2014, the separate JHA "pillar" of EU policy will be merged with the bulk of EU practice and so decisions made in that area will be approved or rejected by a qualified majority vote in the European Council - the regular Brussels summits of EU leaders. In other words, from that moment onward, there would be no veto option. Six months before that happens, the UK has to decide whether it is in or out of the whole JHA integration process. No more pick 'n' mix.

So the deadline is June 2014. Now it so happens that integration in the JHA field is quite popular with the police. It has helped track down terrorists and serious organised criminals hiding out in other European countries. It has enabled the smashing of European paedophile rings. It is also popular with the Liberal Democrats. When challenged on his Europhilia in the 2010 election, Nick Clegg extolled the virtues of the European arrest warrant as an example of something practical and useful that the EU does.

But there are clearly problems too. British authorities complain about the cost and administrative hassle of dealing with mountains of extradition requests from other EU jurisdictions for petty offences - the Polish plumber who turns out to be wanted on a shoplifting charge in Krakow and has to be shipped there at UK expense. There is also understandable squeamishness about limiting British powers to intervene when citizens are hauled before other countries' courts.

Anyway, the pros and cons argument hardly matters because there is simply no way David Cameron could get away with signing up to the fully integrated JHA package even if he wanted to. It would probably require a vote in parliament and could easily and realistically be presented as a substantial cession of sovereignty, which, under the 2011 European Union Act would trigger a referendum.

Bear in mind also that the June 2014 deadline coincides with elections to the European parliament. The last time around, Ukip came second in the national vote.

What the signatories to the Telegraph are asking is that Cameron refuse to exercise his full JHA opt-in, thereby, at a stroke, "repatriating" a bunch of powers from Brussels. It is pretty hard to imagine him doing anything else. The Lib Dems won't like it, but a year before a general election it is just as hard to imagine them ramping up their anti-Tory rhetoric on the basis that they want to make it easier for British citizens to languish in Bulgarian jails as, no doubt, the eurosceptic press will depict their position.

This may come across as an arcane technical process, but it is definitely exercising strategic minds on both sides of the coalition. There is no particular reason why a bunch of Tory MPs should suddenly today decide to urge the Prime Minister to do something in 2014, which, in any case he probably means to do. Unless, of course, there is an appetite in the party for putting down markers, staking out policy territory, in case the Lib Dems start feeling a bit cocky about their influence over European policy. This is not a manoeuvre against Cameron, it is a shot across Nick Clegg's bow and I don't suppose Number 10 is unhappy about that at all.

14 comments

nourredine's picture

@Reginald-Fah-fah,
Captain of industry, do you trade in Europe?
This May, the election in France will see a different president, who will clash with Cameron on at least 2 points
-The financial tax
-Re negotiating the treaty

On Miliband is a marathon not a sprint, wait and see, 2015 is not yet here.

@C Baker ,
For a start nothing is put on paper yet,about the new treaty, Cameron vetoed the wind.
The euro will survive, even the IMF said it, at least for this year.
If Greece default Britain will lose the AAA.
Italy can serve her debt as it is internal, Italien are good savers.
The "eu inner circle" want a federal Europe and they are already doing it.
If it comes to the last resort they will diminish the rate of the debts.
The eurosceptics been arguing since the start of Europe and still at it, when are they recognize that is a lost battle.
Lost because neither Thatcher, Major or Cameron can pull out of Europe all together. Not even Blair or Brown.
Britain wants the trade but not the pain who goes with it, whilst the rest of Europe is paying.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

When the Euro started, I said to myself- this is going to fail but i'm going to enjoy it while it lasts. Now, the Euro is a tool than makes our lifes harder.

I trade in the UK and run my businesses from Dublin because there is so much red tape in the UK to make a successful business.

New Labour over legislated and Parliament needs to spend their time amending and abolishing bad law.

nourredine's picture

@Reginald-Fah-fah captain of industry,
From Dublin, are you using the euro by chance?or is it that eurozone rate is lower than in England for example.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

Returning to the Irish Pound would suit me very much. The Euro cost me alot of money but New Labour's laws cost me more. I guess you can say it's the best of the evils!

nourredine's picture

@captain of industry,
You are an hypocrite, you criticise Europe but uses it's currency.
Typical of tory.
When it comes to bonuses it is not me (prime minister) to take action but to the board, and don't forget to grease my back when you have served yourself.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

My Right Honourable Eurosceptic Friends,

Please let the Prime Minister make decisions in his own time. As Tories, We all know that the PM dislikes Europe.

Europe was OK in good times and now in bad times Europe must go!!!

nourredine's picture

@Reginald-Fah-fah,
So 3 millions employees and 300 000 business.
Yes you are a very good analyst.
Connard.

Fergus Pickering's picture

What ARE you talking about, Nourredine?

nourredine's picture

@Fergus Pickering,
I am talking about the euroseptics who want to come out of Europe without realizing the consequences attach to business.
Now is time to help Europe not to come out.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

My good chaps,

The UK should take an example from Switzerland!

If so, what is a few millions between friends and more room for British Companies. A win win to Reginald.

nourredine's picture

@Reginald-Fah-fah,
As i wrote early what an analyst are you?
Look were Britain is geographicaly for a start.
Review your history for second,
Were is your premier minister? trying to argue the place of Britain in Europe not in the word for third.
And i can carry on like that till the next election if you whant.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

I'm a Tory and a Captain of Industry!

My Premier Minister David Cameron is not arguing for the UK in Europe. Europe wants a place in London if it had it's way! Don't forget that important fact.

Sorry to disappointed you, our marvellous Prime Minister David Cameron will win the 2015 election. Who else have people got to vote for(!)

Be honest, you must look at Ed Miliband and think of a rude word, Clegg will cross the floor in the Commons to become a fine Tory. You know Clegg is really one of us.

C Baker's picture

I don't think the financial compact will actually ever be enforced. It's about as popular as the poll tax was in the UK. You can pass laws,(in this case they are using eu institutions) but they are irrelevant, if you can't enforce them in the countries that have signed up. Just today, we hear that Romania's leader, can't cope with getting the austerity measures through required by the imf and a eu bureaucrat may be called in to govern. How many more, before failure of the euro currency is recognised? So that's Greece and Italy, now Romania perhaps with unelected bureucrats for leaders.

The eu inner circle are living in cloud cuckoo land and it is they, not the eurosceptics that will help Dave the most. Because their new pact is crumbling, before it's begun. They love meetings and treaties and pacts- but they doh! forgot- the people!! Slight oversight there.

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