Scotland's credit rating becomes an issue

Credit rating agencies warn that an independent Scotland may not inherit the UK's AAA rating.

The report in today's FT that an independent Scotland would likely not inherit the UK's AAA credit rating will be seized on by opponents of secession as further evidence that, in their view, independence would be economically damaging. One unnamed agency told the paper that it could expect to receive an investment grade rating some notches below triple A. As the FT's Martin Wolf noted in a recent column:

A newly independent small country with sizeable fiscal deficits, high public debt and reliance on a declining resource for 12 per cent of its fiscal revenue, could not enjoy a triple A rating.

In an act reminiscent of his pre-election tactics, George Osborne has already warned, with little evidence, that the threat of independence is damaging investment and that Scotland could be forced to join the euro (even without a formal opt-out, Sweden still hasn't joined after 17 years of membership).

Will Osborne now make play of the uncertainty over Scotland's credit rating? He may be wary of doing so, not least because there's an increasing chance that the UK could lose its own AAA rating. Others will rightly note that France and the US have seen little increase in their borrowing costs since their credit ratings were downgraded.

This hasn't stopped both Labour and the Conservatives going on the attack today. Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont said it was "extraordinary that the SNP have not even approached the credit agencies for a draft opinion."

Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Gavin Brown said: "Ratings agencies are taken extremely seriously by investors all over the world and this warning is therefore deeply concerning: three of the top agencies agree that a separate Scotland would not be guaranteed a triple-A rating."

It's worth bearing in mind, however, that such scare tactics may only work to Salmond's advantage. Those who oppose Scottish independence need to remember that making the positive case for the Union, as Ed Miliband did in his recent speech, is as important.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Jeremy Corbyn to tell Labour: "Prepare for a 2017 general election"

The newly re-elected Labour leader will urge the party to unite.

Jeremy Corbyn is expected to warn Labour to prepare for a general election in 2017 at conference on Wednesday.

The newly re-elected Labour leader will say: "Whatever the Prime Minister says about snap elections, there is every chance that Theresa May will cut and run for an early election. 

“So I put our party on notice today. Labour is preparing for a general election in 2017, we expect all our members to support that effort, and we will be ready whenever it comes."

Urging the party to rebuild trust, he is to declare: "Every one of us knows that we will only get there if we accept the decision of the members, end trench warfare and work together to take on the Tories."

He will also set out ten Labour policy pledges, which include full employment, public ownership of services and a national education service.

On immigration, he is expected to say: "A Labour government will not offer false promises. We will not sow division or fan the flames of fear. 

"We will instead tackle the real issues of immigration – and make the real changes that are needed."

This includes reinstating the migrant impact fund, and tackling the exploitation of migrant workers.