Osborne hoisted with his own petard
With Britain's credit rating on negative outlook, the Chancellor's reputation is on the line.
By George Eaton Published 14 February 2012 9:56
So much for George Osborne's claim that the UK is a "safe haven". Moody's decision to place Britain's AAA credit rating on "negative" watch explodes the Chancellor's delusions. There is now roughly a 30 per cent chance that the UK's credit rating will be downgraded in the next 18 months. Given that Osborne chose to make our credit rating the ultimate metric of economic stability, this is, to put it mildly, politically awkward for him.
Just ten weeks ago, in his autumn statement, while announcing that the UK would borrow £158bn more than forecast a year ago, Osborne boasted that "we are the only major western country which has had its credit rating improve" (i.e. come off negative outlook). He said:
Last April, the absence of a credible deficit plan meant our country's credit rating was on negative outlook and our market interest rates were higher than Italy's.
By his own logic, therefore, his deficit plan is no longer credible. When Britain was first put on negative outlook by Standard & Poor's (S&P) in May 2009, Osborne declared:
It's now clear that Britain's economic reputation is on the line at the next general election, another reason for bringing the date forward and having that election now ... For the first time since these ratings began in 1978, the outlook for British debt has been downgraded from stable to negative.
And when the UK was taken off negative watch by S&P in October 2010, he boasted of "a big vote of confidence in the UK, and a vote of confidence in the coalition government's economic policies".
The Chancellor has been hoisted with his own petard.
The economic consequences of a downgrade need not be disastrous. France and the US have seen little rise in their borrowing costs since losing their AAA ratings. Indeed, France has just held its most successful bond auction for some time. But politically speaking, this could not be more uncomfortable for Osborne.
Yet if Moody's decision is awkward for the coalition, it offers scant comfort for Labour. Although the agency echoes Ed Balls's concerns about the lack of growth in the UK economy (it refers to "the materially weaker growth prospects over the next few years"), it does not accuse Osborne of going "too far, too fast". Indeed, it praises the government's "commitment to restoring a sustainable debt position". If anything, its complaint is that the Chancellor has been too timid.
As for the fiscal stimulus demanded by Labour, Moody's is clear that, in its view, this is not an option. Under the sub-head "What could move the rating down?", it cites "reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation, including discretionary fiscal loosening". In other words, were Labour in power, the UK would almost certainly have already lost its AAA rating.
But then why we should listen to Moody's, the agency that gave AIG an AAA rating just a month before it collapsed? The answer is simple: we shouldn't. But this doesn't alter the fact that Osborne did. For political purposes, he used Britain's credit rating as a stick to beat Labour with. He can hardly complain if others now use this move against him. The hunter has become the hunted.
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49 comments
SIR M
'The guy who sits on his money after creating the wonder drug doesn't make money out of that money. He simply sits on it, and it does no good.'
Exactly, that was your example!
No Awake, of course not. Can you PLEASE stop reading things into what other people say.
The problem with usary is that it doesn't reward work, innovation, technology, invention, or entrepreneurship. It simply rewards having money with more money. Concordantly, it punishes those without money by forcing them to give some of the money they have to those with money. In effect it is inverted socialism for the rich.
A very simple example:
I am a chemist and I have invented a fantastic new painkiller, better than asprin, no side effects. I need a lot of money to get this into production and take it to market. Luckily, I already have lots of money so I can do this myself and reap the benefits of my actions.
Now I am the same chemist, with the same drug, but I have no money to start out with. I need to go to someone to get this money, and that means a bank. This bank then writes the money I need into existence. In doing this for me, I have to sign over my house, posessions, and whatever else as collateral. If my drug fails they get all that, if it succeeds they effectively part own it. They have done nothing to actually create the product or help me with production, yet are taking a significant portion of earnings, which means less money for me to reinvest in new drugs and less money for my workers to buy products. Due to me needing collateral they've not even assumed any risk.
The entire financial "economy" is simply a tax on the actual part of the economy that matters Awake. It is corporate socialism, but it benefits nobody but the stakeholders and owners of those corporations.
oh dear, it's very simple.
1. The UK would not be in this mess were it not for the dysentery of spending under labour in an attempt to shore up its popularity and keep unemployment down.
2. The AAA credit rating would already be a fading memory if the UK had followed Ed Balls' reccomendations.
3. Moody's statement highlighted that deviating from the existing plan would be a significant factor in any future downgrade decision.
attacking the RA's for their idiocy over subprime is just a pathetic attempt to distract from the three core issues above. The current path is the only one that has a chance (no, not a certainty) of getting us out of this mess without either a greece style collapse or collossal inflation (not hyperinflation).
Socialists, you have no one to blame but yourselves. And I have a sneaky feeling that in the cold dead hours, you know it.
Daniel Taghoff
Is it possible that inflation comes about by increase in demand for finite amounts of raw materials due to rising population?
Yes, the system is skewed towards the rich, and focus on growth is all part of the confidence trick of stealing wealth via inflation by PRINTING money- that adds to inflation also.
Nothing to do with interest rates or pricing risk WHATSOEVER. U can't create inflation by charging interest anymore than u can push a brick with a piece of string- However, if inflation is high, then it's reflected in rates to protect capital.
Well I guess it's all relative, what would you rather have, George Osborne, still AAA and a 50/50 chance of keeping it.
Or the Ed Balls/Danny "I don't do solutions" Blanchflower approach, keep head in sand, ignore the problem, spend like fury, so what if we end up with a BBB rating and interest rates sky rocket, we can always go to the IMF.
Yep, think Labour have a cracking policy here and should stick with it.
I didn't say that it would allocate resources better than the private sector. That isn't the function of the financial system. The function is to allow others to gain enough resources to function.
If the financial services were owned by the state, with profit not being the primary function of those services, the absurd disparity between what has been written into existence by banks and what actually exists in real wealth was insane. This is a problem which STILL hasn't been grappled with because it is a bomb waiting to go off.
If the state lent at 0% then it doesn't matter how the resources are allocated, what matters is that they were allocated at all. Money sitting in the digitized wallets of financial organizations is money which is not being used to stimulate the economy or create jobs.
Usary is an inherently vile system. It can't be defended on any level, ethically or economically. Eventually the bubble bursts, and the many poor have to pay for the greed of a rich few. We've done it before, how many times more must we endure it before it is dealt with?
sir M
'If the state lent at 0% then it doesn't matter how the resources are allocated'
What rubbish... it's precisely this lack of respect for resources that leads to greed. Can't u even see that basic relationship?
You really talk such nonsense at times.
Yes awake the money is doing no good but that's not the point. The money supply hasn't altered. Goods are not any more expensive. People haven't got to produce and consequently consume more merely to keep the system going.
You are seeing this as a left-wing/right-wing or state vs private sector polemical issue when it has nothing to do with that. The point is having a system which is sustainable. This isn't possible if it is possible to simply make money out of money. Therefore all banking and financial systems need to be state controlled.
Sir Michael
I asked a question as to why u stated financial services being owned by the state would prevent the problems we've seen recently.
Your example is so full of holes it can only mean that u have no experience of finance in any way shape or form, or are a structured credit salesman living on his own private island.
What would you reward entrepreneurship with? Money. TRhat means someone has got some in the first place.
Sir Michael, if you are trying to say that honesty in the finacial environment needs to return for balence to be restored, i'd say you're nearly there-it needs to return to media, politics, law etc... and please don't think that honesty in deciding how resources are allocated would be more honest and fair if the assets were state controlled. Heard of Gordon Brown?
sir M
'Money sitting in the digitized wallets of financial organizations is money which is not being used to stimulate the economy or create jobs. '
your words earlier. Then,
'yes awake the money is doing no good but that's not the point'
Every 5 lines u change your mind!! We're discussing economies and jobs, like u say- now it's not the point?!?!?!?!?!!?!?
THEN, u talk about money supply not changing and goods not inflating in price, which I introduced the post before!!!!!!! Remember debt increasing, tha's money supply friend...
polemic!! u think this a polemic??
How can it be? You end with a SECOND U-turn on banking and financial systems!!! I mean u END on it
hahaHSHHSHHAHAHAHAAH
Oh for god sake.
Because the digitized money isn't money that has been arbitrarily created from other money. You are cherry picking sentences and answering arguments which were never made.
If you really want to understand the point then please pay attention to what is actually said, as opposed to creating some fantasy which could be loosely assembled from picking out a few sentences out of context then assembling them out of order.
I will try to explain this to you.
One.
More.
Time.
Imagine we have a country. In this country there are 10 people who were all shipwrecked. They use sea shells as currency to regulate their own division of labor. One is a fisherman, another gathers coconuts, another finds water. Now one decides he will regulate the sea shells and keep them safe. For this he charges a small amount to the others. But there are only 1000 sea shells on the island. He starts out with 10, then 20, the 40, then 80, then 160...
...after a year he has all the islands sea shells, and because they can't find more on the island. What happens? They system breaks. In order to sustain this system they have to keep on finding more and more shells.
But what happens when more and more shells are being thrown into this small economy? The price of coconuts, the price of water, and the price of fish all start rise because the value of a shell is now less. The person holding the shells now is ludicrously wealthy, yet has don't practically none of the work. Those who have worked their assess off collecting water, coconuts, and fish have to go and collect even more and consume even more because they need more shells to compensate for the higher prices.
Now PLEASE don't come back with a response that you will always get more shells because sea creatures breed or something similiarly pointlessly tangental.
If a AAA rating means anything at all - which I strongly doubt - then the UK will be losing its shortly.
This useless "how long is a piece of string" credit-worthiness test were it applied properly would look at the UK economy as a wizened shitake mushroom which is unlikely to be rehydrated anytime soon. What bigger impediment to credit-worthiness is there than economy that's on the skids?
We are in a cycle at the moment where unemployment begets an increase in expenditure, a decrease in income and a rise in the deficit, the corollary of which, is more of all three.
The UK government needs to get investing in some serious infrastructure projects PDQ before the industrial and economic decline of this country becomes terminal. What this government understands about the importance of investment, the economy and industry is summed up in its totally inadequate support for industrial investment, regional development, its dim-witted treatment of Bombardier (i.e. it can't see past the open tender to the strategic importance of industry to the wider economy and national well-being) and its rejoicing in piffling successes like supplying a few bits of steel for the new Forth Bridge when the lion's share of the contract has gone to the Spanish and Chinese.
This is Thatcher Mark II. Don't be surprised if we're all working in B&Q, Morrisons, McDonalds etc. after this latest instalment. It never occurs to these dumbarses that an impoverished people don't buy much, don't borrow much and don't spend much. Welcome to Poundland!
You don't actually understand economics at all do you awake?
If a system has an element of usary the system in question HAS to keep expanding to account for the money taken out to finance that usary.
Given that it has to expand (this is called growth) each year it has to produce more, consume more, and service more.
What happens when they money taken exceeds the amount that is produced in the economy? The expansion stops and the system shrinks.
This is boom and bust. And it is unsustainable. The bailouts were, in essense, pushing the problem to the future. There are countless victims of this, while very few benefit from it. It is crude, cruel, and grossly unfair.
sir m
YOU WROTE
''If the state lent at 0% then it doesn't matter how the resources are allocated''
PLEASE EXPLAIN- I've never heard of this, and now your saying that it's me whose economiucally illiterate??
Seriously, ask ANYONE if they think that lending at 0% means it dosen't matter how the resources are allocated. I'm keen to see why they are even linked!!
Are you even aware of how childish that sounds?
And you still maintain that banking isn't about allocating resources?
"1. The UK would not be in this mess were it not for the dysentery of spending under labour in an attempt to shore up its popularity and keep unemployment down."
Absolutely true. This isn't socialist however. If labour would have followed socialist policies and taxed the rich more aggressively then we wouldn't have such a bad deficit. All of this has been the result of labour trying to have its cake and eat it.
"Socialists, you have no one to blame but yourselves. And I have a sneaky feeling that in the cold dead hours, you know it."
As I said, New Labour aren't socialists. I think socialism would actually lead us out of this situation quite nicely. A blanket ban on usary and reforming the banking industry so that any financial services are entirely state owned and not for profit would both prevent the kind of things that created this problem, and provide valuble revenue to the treasury which would enable tax reduction on citizens of low to moderate means.
Judging by the sort of money some banks make this may even allow cuts in some business taxes, and let those who make a profit by providing valuble services or manufacturing goods to have greater rewards. The real problem we have right now is that too many people are making too much money off simply having money to start with. This is having a toxic effect across all of society.
and ure last example... really shocking, its so naive.
The economy grows to satisfy the consequences of usary?? er, commodities, raw material, technological and manufacturing processes spring to mind!
The boom and bust is precisely because resources were misallocated- subprime, Brown's vote buying, red tape... oscillations in economic outputcan be moderated, certainly, but you (and Brown) who clearly know zero mathematics believe that governing laws of nature can be overcome.
The ego of it.
P.S.
And u still refuse to justify your original claim that
'reforming the banking industry so that any financial services are entirely state owned and not for profit would both prevent the kind of things that created this problem'
Why is it that public sector would allocate resources better???
Sir M
I am currently incapable of replying to this post. However, rest assured, you may have won reply of the year at NS.
By the way,it was amusing to note that you kicked off with a U-turn this time,as opposed to ending with one in the second last post.
'after a year he has all the islands sea shells, and because they can't find more on the island. What happens? They system breaks. In order to sustain this system they have to keep on finding more and more shells'
have they got sea shells or not?
Anyone's guess really, i don't think you know.
'Those who have worked their assess off collecting water, coconuts, and fish have to go and collect even more'
Have you just introduced cocnuts, fish and water as a substitute for sea shells?? Or are they collecting more sea shells? cos u start by saying there's only a thosand, and end saying there's no growth in sea shells allowed, even though you've been arguing the last 3 days this leads to growth...
Sea creatures breeding? Is that like an open vs closed economy argument? Ah yes, that's tangential lol lol lol...
Sir M
this is amusing now. I see that u have built an economic framework based on what a pothead lecturer spouted 35 years ago, and it's hard for you to face up to the 'Gestalt switch' required for u to make any real sense of what you are clearly interested in.Try and go with your instincts a bit more.. look at your last example, it's a joke, it's your memory of an idea thats benty.
They aren't linked, that's why it doesn't matter how resources are allocated. If money is lent by the state as a part of citizenship, as opposed to private corporations for a profit, then it doesn't matter does it? You are waffling on about complete nonsense.
The only thing that would be different is the interest rate (set at a little above zero to cover risk) and what happens to any profit which is yielded by this system (spent on infrastructure for the population and not put into profit).
"P.S.
And u still refuse to justify your original claim that
'reforming the banking industry so that any financial services are entirely state owned and not for profit would both prevent the kind of things that created this problem'
Why is it that public sector would allocate resources better???"
I did justify it but you simply don't understand it. The financial system created the problem because they were persuing profits, not running a service. Subprime and bad debts would not have been a focus for them, only real things of real economic value would be invested in if anti-usary laws were in place.
Do you actually know what "usary" means?
Hoist WITH his own petard.
Everybody accepts that George Osborne is a Triple A. It's a given.
OK, so some credit rating agency has thrown a moody. However, this is merely a warning to George - the fear being that the Chancer is devious enough to steal Labour's solution and claim it for his own.
Gnomes of Zurich
That's weird.
I saw the announcement. Moody's said the action was based on the UK's "susceptibility to the growing financial and macroeconomic risks emanating from the euro area crisis". In other words, the eurozone is dragging us down- and strangely, for the past 6 months blanchflower, i've been beating THAT drum whilst u didn't even notice (yes, i know we are a long way from you).
Then as you yourself point out, blanchflower, they praise his economic policies to date whilst making the point that Labour's are wrong.
What did you think on the Japanese numbers? One of the worlds biggest import/exporters? or is that just too much like hard work...
With top flight analysis like this, no wonder the left is leading the way, and luckily peoples pockets don't matter in elections, it's the shoutiness of the rant wot swings it.
Clown...
Awake! is obviously still half Asleep! given that he's managed to misread "Eaton" as "Blanchflower".
You didn't mention any holes at all. In fact you made an absolutely bizarre assertion...
What would I reward entrepreneurship with? Money, as I said. Money. That is what I said. Will you go back and read it again.
I said, business which make things or provide real services should make money, because they earn it.
Businesses which simply move money around, and keep some of it, should NOT make money. Such services should be absolutely state controlled as allowing them to make money results in a problem of eternal inflation; an ever expanding economy on a world with finite resources.
Watch money as debt.
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544
credit agencies need dicrediting
economies need credit at 0%
Awake
You are just like George Osborne : Dont know what you are talking about.
George Osborne was and always will be economically illiterate.
Looks like David Cameron's best mate George Osborne should have kept to what he knows best : Towel folding in a department store was it not :)
This country has fallen victim to educated idiots that just sound good and fool people with their endless spin but the truth will unravel in due caurse.
On negative outlook because of the eurozone crisis and they say the fiscal consolidation is necessary.
You lefties are really getting desperate now - if Ed Balls took over tomorrow it certainly wouldn't be negative outlook it would be kiss goodbye to AAA and high borrowing costs here we come.
But hey who cares headline GDP would be about 0.3% higher. The new economic maxim kick the can down the road Blanchflower style.
sir m
'They (rates and resouces)aren't linked, that's why it doesn't matter how resources are allocated'
er...
so why did u say
''If the state lent at 0% then it doesn't matter how the resources are allocated'
cos last time i checked , 'if' is a hypothetical conditional, so its linked alright.
Then to cap it all, u change what u say FUNDAMENTALLY i.e recognising the rate should be more than 0%, to take into account risk... which, erm, is applying a judgement, pricing the risk, allocating resources, banking in other words...
Charlata.
U know why u can't explain
'Why is it that public sector would allocate resources better'
Cos its bullshit to even think there is a difference between a puclic or private sector worker, think about it
Oh my god it's pathetic.
The reason it doesn't matter is because resources are still allocated by the private or public sector depending on the industry that utilizes them.
The ONLY differences are;
1. The state is responsible for lending funds to business which it reasonably believes can cover them later.
2. Any profits from this action are circulated back into the real economy as either welfare payments or tax cuts. There is to be no profiteering from simply having money.
HOW businesses use money to build cars, repair lawnmowers, construct buildings, mine raw minerals, or produce steel is completely unchanged.
Usary. Making money from money. That's ALL I am talking about here. Now you can disagree with the point, but going on about points I didn't in fact make is getting tiresome.
"But then why we should listen to Moody's, the agency that gave Lehman Brothers a AAA rating just a month before it collapsed?"
This is the claim that Ed Balls made this morning. It's incorrect.
Moody's rated Lehman A1 from 2003 to June 2008. The accusation is also nearly irrelevant - like Enron, part of the reason why it collapsed was that it could not sustain investment grade credit ratings.
( ==== http://www.vogue7.us/ ==== )
@ the Corinthian
quite right, it's confusing, Blanch wrote this the other day
'George Osborne has been hoisted by his own petard.'
and Eation
'Osborne hoisted with his own petard'
it's the wealth of ideas from the left that impresses so much currently...
@ Anton Jury
clearly the debating society wasn't for you. crystal meths hasn't either be assusred.
'The reason it doesn't matter is because resources are still allocated by the private or public sector depending on the industry that utilizes them.'
I dont understan this sentance.
U originally said it would be better if public sector did the allocating, then that banking wasn't actually allocating resources, U-turned on that in the end, then said there should be more than 0% interest(another U turn), it goes on... and u still maintain that it dosen't matter how resources are allocated;
'The reason it doesn't matter (that resources aren't allocated properly is because resources are still allocated by the private or public sector depending on the industry that utilizes them' Now we get another u turn from u because u concede that some allocation from private is allowed...
Your mind is like a grasshopper. U REALLY need to try meditation, i mean that with sincere love...
Again, for you... making money from money IN ITSELF is not evil... it's the people who hold it who commit the crimes. The reason ancient texts bang on about it is because 'the flrsh is weak'. However, an evolved being acts morally always.
Awake! Tis you Clarkson.
"France and the US have seen little rise in their borrowing costs since losing their AAA ratings."
It is the other way around. The intrest rates are not caused by the rating, but the rating is caused by the intrest rates, which are caused by talk in the news media, who are the prime mover.
To be clear: the news media determine the intrest rates and the intrest rates determine the ratings. That's all.
I always assumed junkstatus would be the best thing for Osborne. Labour would never have a chance then.
How dare Eaton and Blanchflower both use an English idiom given to us by Shakespeare.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petard#.22Hoist_with_his_own_petard.22
Osborne - like his European counterparts - is clueless. Having started off worrying that we were in danger of being like Greece, he is doing his level best to make this a reality.
Keynes was right about what to do in a slump - and despite evidence to contrary - Osborne and the saps in the European Union are driving down their economies. Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal are already dead ducks and Britain, Italy, France... are about to join 'em.
It isn't just Osborne who needs to rethink things. The ECB better start issuing bonds before it is too late. The present policy envisaged for the eurozone is totally untenable.
What is really bewildering is that Osborne prides himself on not being part of the eurozone whilst pursuing the same policies needlessly.
The issue is obfuscation over the word "resources", which was originally started because you didn't quite grasp the point I was getting across.
Here is the solution: FORGET the word "resources". Money is supplied by the state, which has the money through taxation. Resources (goods and services) are supplied by the private sector or the state depending on industry type. The issue of whether or not the state is better for health or not isn't the issue.
Making money from money is in itself destructive (evil isn't a term that has much meaning to me). Money is a means to an end, not an end in itself. It is a method to guarantee exchange of *goods and services*. When someone just takes it and absorbs it, they reduce the capacity for goods and services. So what has to happen is the money supply has to increase, which comes from the goods and services. This leads to a situation where the economy has to grow constantly.
How can a planet with finite resources support infinite growth?
I am talking reality here, and you are waffling about meditation.
We need a system where growth isn't necessary. Whether it happens or not isn't the issue, the issue is that it is necessary.
I yield to none in my scorn for the rating agencies, which passed all those subprime lenders all those years, and whose bias towards the United States is surpassed only by their bias towards the socially liberal, globally adventurist Wall Street wing of the Republican Party.
But I am neither a member nor a supporter of the Coalition: I am not a Conservative, I am not a Lib Dem, and I am not a Blairite. Unlike George Osborne (who ought to be too posh to be a Thatcherite neocon, but instead seems to be earning his Bullingdon nickname of "Oik"), or Danny Alexander and the Orange Bookies, or David Miliband and his flame-keepers, I do not have a bias towards the United States surpassed only by my bias towards the socially liberal, globally adventurist Wall Street wing of the Republican Party.
On this of all days, what a tragic thing is unrequited love. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
Awake
Crystal Meths ! Please can you educate me ?
It was only my intention to comment not debate.
This time I have asked a question then made a comment in the next paragraph. I have at no point tried to enter into a debate.
Mind you I am still interested if you would like to educate me about Crstal Meths.
sir m
the reason we have REAL growth, as i've already pointed out to you, is because of the value added of taking commodity out the ground, putting it through some manufacturing process and making something useful- it's not easy to drive around in iron ore and raw oil/plastic. That VALUE ADDING process is where REAL growth comes from.
Then, governments, in order to win votes via spending splurges (FAKE GROWTH), then use this growth as a justification to BORROW/ create debt more debt than is affordable, on the grounds that the income stream from tax revenues ad infintum , AND factoring in NEW SUPPOSED growth, means that the debt is credible i.e. it will be repayed. Growth then becomes key, and econometrics becomes overly focused on it, to the detriment of common sense e.g. remainINg structurally competitive, education,TRADE IMBALENCES, etc...
Look at economists such as Krugman. A nobel winner, overly focused on a minute area relating to global trade flows...but didn't see the looming storm. His work gathers dust...
You're arguing that goods and services increase so as to make up for the fact that money supply has had to be increased because people are hording it? And that therefore risk shoudn't be priced? seriously? Is that 'theory' based on the fact that there are poor and rich people in the world, because in your earlier example of the wonder drug, once your man gets his money, well, he might just sit on it...(it was a really poor example)
Your throwing out the babe with the bathwater.
'How can a planet with finite resources support infinite growth?'
It can't. The answer is in the very meditation you ridicule. The final stages of man's evolution will not be mental, economic, political... they will be in the spiritual domain, the understanding of the silence of the inner self and resulting contentment.
It will be hard for many English, their egos are still inflated from empire, but a few have a truly generous heart- hopefully they will carry the day!
"But then why we should listen to Moody's, the agency that gave AIG an AAA rating just a month before it collapsed?"
I see that this line has been changed (without a correction) since earlier. Bizarrely, it's still wrong. AIG was not rated Aaa in 2008 and as far as I can see, has never been rated Aaa.
oh, and just a final word, AIG never "collapsed". Indeed, it never lost its investment-grade rating from Moody's.
We don't have REAL growth. We have an inflated financial sector and shrinking manufacturing and a public service in crisis. Unemployment is going through the roof yet finiancial CEOs are awarding themselves enormous bonuses.
If the very premise of your claim is wrong, how can what follows it be considered worth thinking about?
The guy who sits on his money after creating the wonder drug doesn't make money out of that money. He simply sits on it, and it does no good. All the money he has made has been as a result of real world contributions to the value of peoples lives.
MOODY'S actual quotes.
'The primary driver underlying Moody's decision to change the outlook on the UK's Aaa rating to negative is the weaker macroeconomic environment, which will challenge... These challenges, reflecting the combined effect of a commodity price driven hit to real incomes, the confidence shock from the euro area and a reassessment of the lasting effects of the financial crisis on potential output'
So, erm, nothing on cuts yet. In fact on cuts they say they are necessary. Which is the REAL reason why the hardcore lefties including Blanch now dismiss the rating agencies. See that wonderful logic?
GETTIT folks!!! because the agencies made mistakes in the past and are now trying to be whiter than white, we must not listen to the army of economists, analysts, accountants and lawyers who get INDEPENDANTLY paid by those who invest in the bonds, no no no, we must listen to Blanch, anton jury and other economic illuminaries.
More.
'A combination of a rising medium-term debt trajectory and lower-than-expected trend economic growth would put into question the government's ability to retain its Aaa rating. The UK's outstanding debt places it amongst the most heavily indebted of its Aaa-rated peers...'
Outstanding debt note, outstanding, yet didn't Eaton recently write it's not a problem, the 1 trillion we have of debt?
Then moody's bang on again about the euro area.
'The second and interrelated driver of Moody's decision to change the UK's rating outlook to negative is the fact that the weaker environment is also, in part, a by-product of the ongoing crisis in the euro area.'
When was it NS started writing about Europe, or did Anton Jury or Hasan, when did these econmomists start warniung us re Europe?
Who banged on about Europe here 6 months ago- relentlessly beating that drum regarding Europe? ME!
I actually had to write NS staffers and ask if they were ever going to adress the defining issue of our generation, and slowly the articles came.
Why slowly? cos, erm, the issue of europe is fairly clearcut (they are arch clowns), so it coudn't be argued against, so in turn the thinking was that this was a gift to coalition. Why? Because , once again, the left were wrong to back Europe.
When will the left start listening to people again??
sir michael
are u serious? re read the last 6 posts, u gotta be kidding right?
And, u still havent answered why u stated financial services being owned by the state would prevent the problems we've seen recently?
Even if the state lent at 0% (wake up call it is), that dosen't mean that the resources woudn't be misallocated. as i say, heard of gordon Brown.
Just EXPLAIN why the state can allocate resources better than private sector, that's all i'm asking
@Awake
Posting to get the last word in. Because I know that will really upset you if you ever find this.
And Sir M is spot on.
Financial institutions abuse the privilege of being close to money supply and demand growth to sustain themselves. The real economy *always* suffers at their hands.
Awake!
"issue of europe is fairly clearcut (they are arch clowns)"
Thanks to the Euro the Netherlands is the seventh exporter of the world and the United Kingdom is the eleventh exporter. The U.K. staying out of the Euro meant quite a trade shift,so the Netherlands should thank you for the opt out.
The U.K. does not have the advantage of the Euro, but it will have the disadvantage.
sir michael
'so that any financial services are entirely state owned and not for profit would both prevent the kind of things that created this problem'
is taht because state sector workers are better than private sector workers, Sir Michael?
Awake, there is no way that you can have a dematerialised economy, or an "enlightened" population under the current system.
The ideas Sir Michael are laying out have been laid out in many places, Positive Money, The Ecology of Money by Richard Douthwaite, Liatier's The Future of Money and so on and so on.
Simply put creating money at interest implies more money coming back later (that is what interest is). This drives either an expansion or accelleration of the money supply.
If the flow of money (volume moving in relevant transactions multiplied by velocity) does not match the flow of goods, then you have more money chasing less goods = inflation.
So to manage inflation goods and services must expand to keep up with the return on the creation of money. This is a basic economic dynamic, to ignore it is to live in denial.