Gang crime: another approach

Charities like Aasha Gang Mediation provide the things that working parents and the state can't.

A short walk east from the gleaming glass of the RBS building by Liverpool Street station, through Brick Lane, through the low rise red brick and concrete blocks of flats that make up the Spitalfields Estate, there's a big Victorian building, which looks like an old school. Outside, there's a small football pitch, and there are kids of all ages and races playing on it, with a crowd gathered round, screaming encouragement.

Next to this old building is a newer one. At the top floor of this, three Bengali men are talking to a room full of local youths, housing professionals, youth workers and others. Harun Miah is a short, stocky man in his 30s. Next to him is Abu Mumin, a slightly taller, bald man with a beard, and beside him Udjal Kamrujzaman. None of them look like criminals. But they have a fascinating story to tell.

Abu moved to England aged seven, and as an 80s child remembers a tough childhood - bricks through the window, kids riding through his estate on bikes looking for Pakis to bash. His friend would stuff copies of the Yellow Pages in his shirt when he walked down Brick Lane. His gang was originally formed to combat racists, but as the years went by it started to get involved in other things - drug dealing, battles with other gangs. One of the gangs with whom there was a particularly vicious rivalry was Harun's: "I wanted to track him down and do him some serious damage."

The Bengali gangs of Tower Hamlets became increasingly territorial and violent. One night in 1997 it all came to a head. Udjal describes the aftermath of a brutal clash between the main five gangs: "All of the tendons in my hand were cut with a meat cleaver. My friend's ear and fingers were hanging off. I wasn't sure if I was going to live. In hospital my mother and sister were crying over me, but I was already plotting my revenge. Harun came to me and offered a new perspective: it was time to forgive. The community set up a meeting between the different gangs. I didn't want to go: I was crying because all I wanted was revenge. But I sat down, and we talked, and we forgave each other."

Following a meeting in the East London Mosque, the young gang members turned into youth workers. At first they were based in a Portakabin; then they squatted in the Victorian building next to the one in which they're talking. Aasha Gang Mediation, as the group was now called (Aasha means hope in Bengali) began to work with gang-involved youths - mediating in disputes, holding excursions and doing outreach work. Now it does much the same work and much more, in far more opulent surroundings, thanks to a council grant. It's half term, and Aasha's facilities keep the local kids out of trouble. Besides the football tournament, on the ground floor the kids are playing Playstation 3, on the floor above that pool and table football, and on the floor above that there's even a boxing tournament taking place.

This is what voluntary sector groups do up and down the country: they provide the things that working parents and the state can't. It's not really the kind of work that can be quantified - you can walk around Aasha's building and see it in action, but how do you know how many stabbings or shootings they've stopped?

This is one reason why, year after year, charities like Aasha find themselves struggling for money. About a third of their funding comes from the council, but for the rest they have to apply to others like Comic Relief or the National Lottery. The Gherkin and the shimmering lights of the Square Mile loom over Aasha's centre, but very little funding comes from private equity - at the last count, they'd managed £10,000 for the "Canary Wharf room". The group's building, which keeps hundreds of kids busy every week - and will for years - cost slightly less than Operation Trident's gang initiative. I was recently talking to a senior civil servant who said to me: "I'm amazed the banks aren't getting involved in funding projects in Tower Hamlets. There's so much poverty there, it's right on their doorstep and if ever there was an institution that needed the positive publicity it would bring, it's them."

The problem with the kind of funding a charity like Aasha gets is sustainability. At most, a voluntary body gets money for a project for one or two years. Let's say you want to employ a gang member, because he's got a good insight into the culture you're trying to subvert. How easy is it to employ someone like that on a six-month contract? What future employment prospects does he have once that's ended?

There's another problem with how the funding is granted - more often than not it involves the filling out of huge, abstruse forms, rather than monitoring in person. But a quick walk around Aasha's base reveals that the work they do isn't easy to express in terms of concrete aims - one day it's stopping a fight breaking out, the next it's talking a kid through his employment prospects.

Aasha's work will never generate the headlines that a police operation will. But in the long run, early intervention isn't just the best way to banish gangs for good: it's the only way.

Alan White's work has appeared in the Observer, the Times, Private Eye, The National & TLS. He lives in London and tweets as @aljwhite. As John Heale, he is the author of One Blood: Inside Britain's Gang Culture, republished this year.

Alan White's work has appeared in the Observer, Times, Private Eye, The National and the TLS. As John Heale, he is the author of One Blood: Inside Britain's Gang Culture.

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What to look out for in the 2016 local and devolved elections

Your guide throughout Thursday night and into Friday. 

22:00: Close of polls. My advice is to use this time to stock up on vital supplies, like energy drinks, dips and fast food. And also to open the New Statesman’s all-singing all-dancing liveblog, which I will kick off from 10pm.

23:00: First to declare will be borough councils in Sunderland and Tunbridge Wells.  Sunderland is a Labour stronghold while Tunbridge is a Conservative fortress and both elect in “thirds” – electing a third of their councillors every year, a break every four years, as councillors are elected once every four years.

So even if the Conservatives win all 25 seats in Sunderland or Labour storm Tunbridge, it won’t matter in terms of who runs services there. You may ask “Hey, isn’t this a really stupid way of running elections, designed to produce gridlock and political failure?” The answer to this question is “Yes!”

Though frankly if we see Labour gains in Tunbridge – they have three councillors there in total – David Cameron is going to have to start updating his LinkedIn pretty damn quick, but keep an eye out for how Ukip do in Sunderland.

23:30: Look out for Rugby, which also elects in thirds. The Conservatives took back control of this council in 2007 after years of it being hung. On a good night for Labour, they could knock it back into no overall control, and it’s places like this they need to be posting good results in if they want to get back into power in 2020. (Winning Rugby on a uniform swing would mean Labour was in power with a majority of eight.)

Less interesting is Tameside, another Labour stronghold, though watch out not only for how Ukip do but whether the Conservatives can come through the middle in any of the seats here. Overall, though, the non-Labour parties haven’t gone above double figures here since the 2010 election, so anything other than hegemony is a troubling sign for Labour.

00:00: Remember Nuneaton, commonly known as the site of Ed Miliband’s Waterloo? (It was defeat here in 2015 that made it clear that not only were Labour not on course for victory, but that defeat was going to be worse than many predicted.) Well, half of the council seats there are up for grabs in the council of Nuneaton and Bedworth. Nuneaton and Bedworth elect in halves – where, spoiler alert, they elect half their councillors every two years. Although Nuneaton has a Conservative MP it is solidly Labour at a local level and anything other than a Labour hold here would be very worrying.

Keep an eye out for the Labour strongholds of Wolverhampton and Sefton, both of which elect in thirds. There really should be nothing to see there, but if things are going badly, you might see Ukip making some gains.

Southend-on-Sea is a lot of fun – this true-blue seaside town is run by a Labour coalition with a group of independent parties, after a long period of rule by the Conservatives. Can Labour and its ragtag coalition keep control? Demographic change is very slowly moving Southend towards Labour, so keep an eye out for some progress here.

00:30: Another Labour council in Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, which likewise elects in thirds. The Liberal Democrats – remember them? – ran Newcastle from 2004 to 2011, so although a change of power is unlikely, if there is indeed a serious revival in Liberal Democrat fortunes since exiting the coalition, they should look to make some gains here.

01:00: Results will start to come through from the Welsh Assembly, with the rock-solid seat of Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. If Labour can’t win here, they can’t win anywhere, but watch out for how well Ukip can do here. Ukip’s rise in Wales is the “biggest polling movement you’ve never heard of”, in the words of Cardiff University’ Roger Scully, and if they get a strong second expect that to signal big, big gains in the List system. (Wales uses the additional member system, a combination of first past the past and an area list, similar to the list method for the European Parliament.)

In England, results will come in from Ipswich and the Wirral, which both elect in thirds. Ipswich is Labour-run with two Conservative MPs, while Wirral is Labour-run with two Labour MPs. The seats of Ipswich, Wirral West and Wirral South are all key marginals – so both parties will be hoping for good performances here.

01:30: Provided that nothing unexpected has happened, there should be two routine Labour victories in the safe seats of Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough and Ogmore, by-elections which are being held on the same day. I wouldn’t rule out a good second for Ukip in Ogmore but other than that, nothing that interesting to see here.  

More interesting will be the councils of Bury and Swindon, both marginals. Bury is currently Labour-controlled while Swindon has been Conservative-run since 2003. Labour should win both if they are on a winning trajectory, although the fact it is on the thirds model means that a winning performance on the night might not be enough to take control in Swindon.

02:00: Is that a unicorn? No, it’s a Liberal Democrat run council! Eastleigh is one of just nine left in the country. The council elects in thirds and having been a one-party state in 2010, the effects of coalition mean that Eastleigh now sends a Tory to Westminster and has six Conservative councillors out of 44. Knocking out the two Tories who are up will have Tim Farron pouring champagne over himself, while the Conservatives will hope that they can continue their revival.

Scotpocalypse! The first results should come in from Scotland, with Cunninghame South, East Kilbride, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Rutherglen, Uddington and Bellshil all due to declare. With the exception of Rutherglen and Uddington and Bellshil, the SNP won all of those seats in 2011, but expect those two Labour seats to turn a pleasant shade of yellow.

There should be better news for Labour in Blaenau Gwent in Wales, which is also due to declare.

02:30: Councils, councils, everywhere. Basildon, Birmingham, Coventry , Lincoln, Stockport, Walsall are the ones to watch. We’ll have an idea who is having a good night after they declare.

The yellowcoats are coming, the yellowcoats are coming! Watch out for the result from the constituencies of Orkney and Shetland, both solidly Liberal Democrat. If the SNP take both, expect a clean sweep of every constituency in Holyrood, with the other parties exiled to the lists. Less exciting will be Perthshire South & Kinross-shire, Perthshire North, and Stirling , all of which ought to go SNP.

And more news from Wales: Alyn & Deeside, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Delyn, Yyns Mon and Vale of Clywd all declare. The Vale is one of a handful of seats that Labour won in the 2011 Assembly elections but lost in 2015 to the Conservatives – Labour has to hold onto and ideally do better in those seats this time – look out for Gower, Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan later on in the night, too.

03:00: It all kicks off around here. (If you wanted, you could probably get away with going to bed at 8 and setting your alarm for three.)

Crunch time in Wales, with Aberavon, Aberconwy, Arfon, Brecon & Radnorshire, Clywd South, Clwyd West, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Gower, Montgomeryshire, Neath, Swansea East, Swansea West, Wrexham, Caerphilly, Islwyn, Newport East, Newport West, Ceredigion and Monmouth all due to the declare. By 4am we should have a clear idea of who’ll be running Wales. (Spoiler alert: it will be Labour, with the question being whether they will be able to govern alone or will have to make a deal with Plaid Cymru and/or the Liberal Democrats.)

Ones to watch: Aberconwy, a three-way marginal between Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid, currently Tory-held. And Gower.

Meanwhile, in England, Bolton, Crawley, Dudley, Exeter, Great Yarmouth, Harlow, Hastings, Plymouth, Southampton, Stevenage and Thurrock are the councils to watch as a whole bunch come in. Bolton, Southampton and Plymouth are Labour-run and home to seats that were Labour in 2010 but went to the Tories in 2015 – Labour should hold on comfortably if they are to have  shot at winning back those constituencies in 2020. Harlow, Hastings, Crawley and Stevenage are Labour-run but Conservative since 2010 at the latest, and are places where Labour should consolidate power.

Can Tim Farron win on his own doorstep? A third of seats in South Lakeland, which includes his own seat of Westmoreland and Lunedale, are up for grabs. Even amidst general Liberal Democrat woe in 2015, his party actually gained two seats in Farron’s own seat and lost just two across South Lakeland. Expect a good night here.

And in Scotland, Angus North & Mearns, Angus South, Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley, Clydebank & Milgavie, Cunninghame North, Dumbarton, Dumfriesshire, Dunddee City  East, Dundee City West, Galloway & Dumfries West, Greenock & Inverclyde, Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, Strathkelvin & Bearsden will all declare.

03:30: Declarations from Edinburgh and Glasgow. It was Edinburgh that gave Labour its one MP in Scotland in 2015, but Edinburgh Southern, which holds the bulk of the wards in Ian Murray’s Edinburgh South seat, is already an SNP seat, while Edinburgh Central, which holds the remainder, is also already a fetching shade of yellow. But Edinburgh is still, despite having a near clean-sweep for the SNP at Westminster, one of the swingiest, most marginal-heavy cities in the United Kingdom, so something exciting could happen. (The word “could” is working very hard here.) Expect the SNP to win every seat in Glasgow, unless something untoward is happening.

In England, Redditch and Trafford are worth watching. Redditch was Labour until 2010 and Labour runs the council there – but they were defeated there in 2015 so it’s a must-win seat if Labour is to stay in the game for 2020. Trafford is an island of blue in a seat of red – it includes the safe Labour seats of Kate Green and Mike Kane, but also Graham Brady’s Tory stronghold – where victory would put Labour in a strong position at this stage of the parliament.

04:00: It never rains but it pours. Results to look out for are Cambridge, Carlisle, Colchester, Derby, Peterborough, Portsmouth and Slough. In Cambridge, if there is a Liberal Democrat revival, it will be here. Everywhere else is a straight Labour-Conservative battle.

And it’s decision time in Scotland, as Aberdeen Central, Aberdeen Donside, Aberdeen South & Kincardine North, Argyll & Bute, Clackmannanshire & Dunblane, Cowdenbeath, Dunfermline, East Lothian, Fife Mid & Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy and Moray all declare. But the newsworthy results will be in the list results from Glasgow and South Scotland, which should be announced. We’ll begin to know what the SNP’s opposition will look like at this point.

04:30: If you’re wondering “when’s best for a power nap?”, here’s not a bad shout. We should have a good idea of who’s had a good night, whether Labour is on an upward trajectory, if Cameron is in real difficulties, and who’ll be calling the shots in Cardiff and Holyrood by now. You can safely shut your eyes until 8am.

But if you’re as cool as me, you’ll stay up for a swathe of Scottish seats and at...

05:00: Results from the Scottish list system will start to come through.

In England, if the Greens are going to make any sort of splash tonight it’ll be in places like Norwich, where they are already the official opposition to Labour. The signs from by-elections so far is that Corbyn’s Labour goes down a treat in cities like Norwich, so there is a real risk that Labour could do them serious damage here. Getting out with the same number of seats, or even more, would indicate that there is life for the Greens even while Corbyn is Labour’s centre-forward.

Also keep an eye on Reading, one of a number of councils that is Labour at a local level but Conservative at Westminster. Labour really mustn’t fall back in places like if they are to have a shot at power in 2020. We’ll get the last results from Wales, with Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan two to watch out for.

05:30: Results from the Lothian region will come in from Scotland. It’s these party list votes that will be responsible for the bulk, probably the entirety, of the non-SNP presence at Holyrood. 

07:00: We should have results from the list vote in Wales, where Ukip will likely do well, while the last few regions from Scotland should report in too. Votes start being counted in the mayoral races. You can grab a cheeky two and a half hour sleep about now.

09:30:  Results from the mayoral contests in Liverpool, Bristol, London, and Salford will come in. Expect fairly quick declarations from Liverpool, Salford and London, all of which look fairly likely to return Labour candidates by large majorities. Bristol is a trickier test for Labour though it is another part of the country where Labour ought to gain a boost from having Corbyn as leader.  It could be as late as 17:00 if the contests are close.

11:00: The excitement begins anew, as Cannock Chase – Labour at a local level, Conservative at Westminster declares.

11:30: Kirklees, which contains the marginal seats of Wakefield, Colne Valley, and Dewsbury, declares.

12:00: Another rare Liberal Democrat local authority in the shape of Cheltenham. They elect in halves and the council was last up in 2014. The Liberal Democrats held the constituency of Cheltenham from 1992 until 2015, when the Conservatives regained a seat they had held without interruption since 1950. If the Liberal Democrats have a future, it’s in securing a big result here and using that to kick on and retake the seat in 2020.

Hyndburn (Labour nationally and locally) and Milton Keynes (Labour minority administration locally, Conservative in both Westminster seats) are the marginals to look out for. A great result for David Cameron would see them chip away at Labour’s majority in Hyndburn and take back Milton Keynes. A good result for Jeremy Corbyn would be a majority in Milton Keynes and advances in Hyndburn. Both elect in thirds.

12:30: Calderdale declares. Calderdale is made up of two marginals – Halifax, held by Labour’s Hollie Lynch, and Calder Valley, held by the Conservative Craig Whittaker. It’s currently run by a Labour minority administration. A good result for the Conservatives would be to tip the balance of power their way, a good result for Labour would be full control. The status quo would indicate that the 2020 election will look pretty much the same as the 2015 one.

13:00: Gloucester declares. Gloucester sent a Labour MP to Westminster until 2010 but is Conservative at a local and national level. Though the thirds model makes it difficult for Labour to take full control, knocking it into no overall control would indicate that Corbyn is on his way to becoming Prime Minister in 2020. Also declaring is Stroud, Conservative in Westminster but Labour locally. Defeat here would indicate Corbyn is on his way to Milibandtown in 2020.

13:30: Blackburn with Darwen. This is a weird unitary authority, combining solid Labour territory in Blackburn (though watch out for how Ukip do!) with more marginal areas in Darwen. And it elects in thirds. So, basically, if Labour do very well here, we’ll be able to tell. Otherwise, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

14:00: Pendle, currently no overall control but run by the Conservatives in coalition with the Liberal Democrats – hey sounds familiar! – has had a Tory MP since 2010. A good night here – Pendle uses the thirds model – would be good news for Labour’s chances in 2020.

15:00: Another unicorn aka Liberal Democrat-run Three Rivers, which has stayed orange despite no record of success at a Westminster level for that party since 1906. It’s up in thirds, so the Liberal Democrats are aiming for consolidation while the Tories are hoping for erosion.

Rossendale, which has sent a Conservative to Westminster since 2010 but is Labour run, has a third of its council seats up for election. An increased Labour presence on the council would indicate Labour was on course to take back the seat – a reduced one would suggest quite the reverse.

16:00: Get ready for the end of an era? Watford has been Liberal Democrat run since 2004 but their majority was slashed to just one in 2015. Get ready for a changing of the guard.

17:00: Rotherham elects in thirds and Ukip did spectacularly well last time on the back of a child sexual abuse scandal. Look out for their performance this time.

18:00: One last Labour-Conservative marginal fight in Warrington. A few late bloomers will declare over the weekend, but at this point you can go outside, get dinner or go to the pub.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.