The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Why the Scottish referendum is win-win for the Tories

Labour would lose 41 seats if Scotland went independent. The Tories would lose one.

By George Eaton Published 09 January 2012 16:03

No one should doubt David Cameron's commitment to the Union but there's at least one reason why Scottish independence wouldn't be an entirely negative outcome for the Tories. The break-up of the Union and the removal of Scottish MPs for Westminster would dramatically reduce the chances of Labour returning to government. It's well known that Ed Miliband has more Scottish MPs than Cameron but what's less well known is just how many more. Labour won 41 seats at the last election (no change from 2005) but the Conservatives won just one (see graph). Indeed, the Tories haven't exceeded that figure since 1997. There are now more giant pandas in Scotland than Conservative MPs.

As a result, the commitment of some Tories to the Union has waned. In 2006, Michael Portillo told Andrew Neil: "From the point of political advantage, the Conservatives have a better chance of being in government if Scotland is not part of the affair. You are continuing to assume the Union is sacrosanct. That is not an assumption I make any more." A 2009 ConservativeHome poll of 144 party candidates found that 46 per cent would not be "uncomfortable about Scotland becoming independent". To many Tories, an independent England - economically liberal, fiscally conservative, Eurosceptic, Atlanticist - is an attractive prospect.

On his live blog, the Guardian's Andrew Sparrow reports on speculation at Westminster that George Osborne, who is chair of the ministerial group on Scotland, is "not the union's greatest fan." It's not hard to see why Osborne, who is also the Tories' chief election strategist, might be tempted by the prospect of an independent Scotland but, to date, there is no evidence that he's anything other than an Unionist. However, you only need to look at the graph above to see why some in the Conservative Party are not.

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Tags: Scottish independence SNP

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21 comments

Thu, 2012-01-12 12:13 — Bill Fraser (not verified)

Why is this such a big issue for Cameron and coalition… it was not in the run up to Christmas, so why is it such a big issue now?

Like no doubt most other Scots who voted for the SNP in the last parliamentary election (Edinburgh), I had little interest in the SNP’s long-term goal of holding a referendum; they were simply the better party to govern (Scotland).

I can only conclude Cameron is using the issue of an independence referendum, as he will use the Jubilee and Olympics, to distract the electorate south of the border from his agenda of drastic welfare cuts and means testing the sick and the disabled...

An no doubt are Tories are also hoping the issue of the referendum, the jubilee and the Olympics’ will whip up a ‘patriotic’ feeling they as a Party can capitalize on...

I will say though, if Cameron, Milliband and clegg, force through Westminster a fixed ‘yes or no’ referendum at a date of their choosing... I will have no hesitation irrespective of the outcome in voting ‘yes’ ... even though I no opinion on the issue of a referendum.

As I have never in the last 30 years voted Tory or liberal, I certainly will not vote for them in fixed Tory referendum...

Tue, 2012-01-10 07:12 — frances smith (not verified)

finally osborne's evil plot has been uncovered. he wants scottish independence as soon as possible, so that after this incompetent coalition is finally recognised as such, the tories can at least lose less badly than they otherwise might of, in 2015.

Mon, 2012-01-09 16:08 — ROB (not verified)

A strange interpretation given that the Tories are ostensibly supposed to be the Unionists. Nu£abour are too of course. The Tory dimension will drive more and more Scots into the arms of the SNP from abhorrence if nothing else. The UK is finished. Good luck in the Tory England (it always was) once Scotland is free.

Mon, 2012-01-09 16:20 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Good. The Labour party are now what the Tories were 15-20 years ago with Tories further to the right.

Tue, 2012-01-10 09:58 — super huey (not verified)

@Gerry
Why doesn't it concern the English?, afterall powers are not devolved yet and last time I heard Cameron is the PM of the UK so he has the right to butt in or at least have a say. When Salmond and his party say it's a Scotland only issue all i see is arrogance.

By the way... the giant panda's would do a better job than the Tories by actually bringing in revenues for Scotland.

Mon, 2012-01-09 16:59 — madasbalooons (not verified)

The Tories will be loving this, they are famed for their gerrymandering.

Mon, 2012-01-09 17:24 — John1111111111222222227

ROB: you obviously didn't read the article, which acknowledges that this is a departure from the Conservative position of old. I know that most Scottish nationalists love to think they're 'breaking free' from an England, desperate to keep them under the thumb, but thats just not the case, most English people very much want rid of you. Good luck independent....I'm sure you'll be needing it, that is if the messianic north sea oil doesn't solve all your many,many,many problems.

Tue, 2012-01-10 12:10 — Robert Taggart

Sounds like a win win for England !

Mon, 2012-01-09 17:35 — Gerry (not verified)

John: Why are you being such a hostile knob?

Again we see angry English people behaving like spurned lovers whenever Scottish independence comes up.

Time to grow up and realise it's not about you.

Tue, 2012-01-10 12:41 — tally

Osborne once remarked that the west lothian question would come in useful one day and that while Prescott was the minister for English regions,He, Osborne was the minister for England"really".

Tue, 2012-01-10 14:26 — Home Rule for England

Full independence for Scotland is up to Scotland. Devo max is a different issue as it would alter the relationship between England and Scotland. We English should be consulted.

Mon, 2012-01-09 18:31 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Gerry

You are not seeing the same as me, I'm an Englisman and like plenty of English on here, I'm not angry, and I don't behave like a spurned lover whenever Scottish Independence comes up. I think YOU need to calm down.

I very much support Scottish Independence as this would at last give the English something they have long been denied A PARLIAMENT for ENGLAND and political equality with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. It's not all about you either.

Mon, 2012-01-09 18:54 — Fergus Pickering (not verified)

The Scots are so girlie. They stamp their high heels, stick their noses in the air and they're away. I hope.

Mon, 2012-01-09 19:21 — Mike Stanley (not verified)

As an Englishman I would prefer to retain the union and I accept that this may mean a convoluted constitutional settlement which leaves such anomalies exemplified by the West Lothian issue. If, however TheScottish people wish for independence then that is their peogative.

But do not think the break up of the UK is a matter only for Scotland. It concerns us all and will leave many problems for Scotland and the rump UK. England will wish to look after its interests and it is naive of Scots if they think it is only their show.

Tue, 2012-01-10 16:54 — Marbles McMoon (not verified)

The idea that an independent Scotland would make any significant difference to the outcome of UK elections is a complete myth:

http://wingsland.podgamer.com/?p=13513

Tue, 2012-01-10 17:45 — Obelisk (not verified)

It's worth reading the relevant section in Norman Davies's recent book 'Vanished Kingdoms'. The reconfiguration of small countries such as ours is almost an historical certainty; Davies posits the interesting idea of Northern Ireland joining an independent Scotland (within the EU) with perhaps an evential 'New Britain' featuring all the nations - except England.

As a Londoner who studied in Aberdeen I firmly believe in independence to force the English to wake up from our, by turns, post imperial/ruritanian delusions. Those on the left who wish to cling onto an unwilling Scotland just to engineer their politcal survival are pandering to a grubby 19th century mentality last suffered by Serbia. We are, hopefully, better than that.

Mon, 2012-01-09 21:27 — Gerry (not verified)

Eelsy, I agree that a Parliament for England would be great, but that's not the topic; a referendum for Scotland really IS all about us.

I also didn't say ALL English people, but columns all over even left-wing papers and magazines get quickly filled with comments from ranting and raving English people who act like we're shovelling sh1t over the border :o

I live in South Yorkshire, by the way!

Mon, 2012-01-09 22:02 — PhilM (not verified)

I doubt if a Tory hegemony in England/Wales would last long, maybe a decade. The electorate want choice and I expect dissident libdems would hook up with labour to counter Tory dominance. A "former united kingdom" would also disillusion the traditional right. Would Wales break off next? The north south divide within England could then become yet more problematic.

Mon, 2012-01-09 22:36 — Fraziel1

@john, yes many English want rid of us because you swallow the utter nonsense and lies that is written in large quantities by odious English tabloid journalists. The REAL figures show that more money goes to London than Scotland per head, and more goes to Northern ireland too. Don't hear much bitching about them though.

As for Scots being Girlie Fergus, it would amuse me to hear you say that to a group of working class Glaswegians for whom being girlie is not a trait with which they are usually associated. I wonder how long it would take for you to lose a few body parts,lol.