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Why Cameron's Scotland plan has rattled the SNP

The PM has called Salmond's bluff by demanding an independence referendum sooner rather than later.

Ever since the Scottish National Party's remarkable victory last May, Westminster has been in a state of shock, unsure how to proceed. But now, finally, David Cameron, determined not be remembered as the man who lost the Union, has resolved on a course of action. He will allow the SNP to stage its own binding referendum on independence on the condition that it is held in the next 18 months (any referendum after this date will be advisory, as it would always would have been) and that it offers a straight yes/no question on Scottish secession.

Cameron's move upsets Salmond's plans in several respects. The First Minister has long intended to hold a referendum in the second half of the Scottish parliament, perhaps in 2014 on the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when he believes that discontent with the Tory-led government will be at its height. In addition, he planned for the ballot paper to feature two questions, one on independence and one on full fiscal autonomy or "devolution max". Aware that there may not be a majority for the former, the SNP leader is eyeing the consolation prize of "devo max", a stepping stone to full independence. But Cameron is determined to deny Salmond these two advantages. To add authority to his stance, he will publish a consultation paper later this week revealing legal advice that the referendum will only be binding if both parliaments agree to its timing and wording.

There is, of course, a risk that all this could backfire. Cameron's intervention could be seen as an attempt by the Tories - not a popular breed in Scotland - to hijack a referendum that the SNP has an electoral mandate to hold. It was an argument made at length by Nicola Sturgeon, Salmond's deputy, on the Today programme this morning. But, as she conceded, there is a potential contradiction in the SNP's stance. It maintains both that Cameron has no right to dictate the terms of the referendum and that his move will backfire. But if Cameron's move will backfire why is the Scottish government so opposed to it? The answer, as Sturgeon will not say, is that the SNP is not convinced there will be a majority for independence in the next 18 months (or ever) and, consequently, is determined to reserve the option of devolution max. Yes, some Scottish voters will resent Cameron's intervention but others will ask, "why doesn't Salmond want an early referendum? What's the big feartie afraid of?"

Set against this must be the disorganisation of the pro-Union side (who will lead the No campaign?) but Cameron has called Salmond's bluff and the initiative, for the first time in months, is with him.

54 comments

Freeman2's picture

I know it may sound odd, but don't you think it's for the Scots to decide what happens about Scotland and when?

Arturo Bandini's picture

Our national social-conscience is incompatible with that of Tory England, and we have long recognised the democratic deficit that leads to Scotland getting the government that England votes for.

The game's up.

Hugo Chav's picture

Im not convinced this bannockburn date is true. And Cameron has not taken the initiative, as the the proposed referendum will still go ahead in 2014.

Silver Shred's picture

Complete tosh. No one is rattled. There is no contradiction in what Nicola Sturgeon said. It is perfectly possible to consistently hold that Cameron - who leads a minority government - has no right to interfere with the overwhelming democratic mandate held by the only majority government in the UK, and to believe that this will backfire - but still to assert that this is wrong because it is bad for democracy. It's called espousing a principle - something Labour (and Tory)-supporting media find difficult to comprehend because it's such a novel conceptfor them

C Baker's picture

An extremely clever move from Cameron. He can't fail. It brings the agenda of Scottish independence to the fore. Those that want independence will start demanding for it even more. This will bring the Scottish/EU relationship in to question too.

Cameron does not want independence, but he could gain a bigger majority in Westminster, if the Scotts leave. If they don't he still gets what he wants; the union. The headache is all Salmon's. Also, it will divide Labour as they will have to let their stance be known. The whole conversation is a genius move on his part.

Some Scotts will be angry over Cameron telling what they can and can't do. This will have no political harm for Cameron what so ever, as they are not his voters and never would be. Labour could be the biggest losers here.

It's like putting a bet on your favourite football team to lose. If they lose, you win the bet, but if they win, you are still happy.

Criticise Cameron if you will, but it is Salmon and Labour that have to make all the moves and face the difficult decisions.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Nonsense article. George Eaton should ask himself who is right when he keeps finding himself in agreement with the likes of Cameron and Clegg on the issue of Scotland.
If you know anything about Scottish people you should know how they will react to pushy, arrogant little upstart (with no mandate whatsoever) telling Scots what is going to happen.
The SNP have known for a very long time that all the main parties will do anything and try every trick going to keep Scotland in line.
When you find yourself on the sameside of the argument as these lowlives you have to start asking yourself a few questions. If anyone seriously believes that Cameron gives two hoots about Scottish people they need their heads checking

Nathaniel Myers's picture

If the above comments are correct, then you have nothing to worry about, nor should Salmond. All David Cameron will be doing is speeding up the process of independence. :)

Fortunately, however, we all know that this isn't the case, and that there is not an independence majority within Scotland. I'm a lefty in favour of union, and I'm quite impressed with how the prime minister has played this.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Mike Roberts,
your prejudice towards Scotland is clear. Scotland is not subsidised. The odd person writing mildly annoying stuff about England does not mean it's okay insult a country in return. I for example am not going to return insults towards England in response to yourself.
Whilst there are big areas of England that doesn't vote Tory a lot of England does.
From what I can gather you should be happy to get rid of Scotland out of the UK if Scotland is such a drain on resources and England can have all the Labour governments it wants

JPJ2's picture

I suggest, George Eaton, that you should read what "Silver Shred" has written as this is the correct political analysis whilst your own analysis is devoid of all logic.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Oh I'm more than happy for Cameron to play it this. In fact wether he's giving decrees from London or coming up here and lording it over us from Edinburugh then great. The more vocal and bullish the better. The same goes for all Tories, Lib Dems and a number of Labour people.
Support for independence is a very close run thing just now. I believe this can only increase as the full scale of cruelty from this government becomes clear

Ellie's picture

So you think that the SNP are rattled by this?
Silly boy
Silly, silly boy

How little you understand

DWB's picture

Cameron is the fool here.
If he survives the Anti-Tory backlash of a Westminster hijacked referendum on Independence, then the SNP will simply call a subsequent 'INDEPENDENCE LITE' referendum on their terms.
2 bites at the cherry.

Alicia Murray's picture

The writer of this piece is wrong absolutely no one in Scotland is rattled by Dodgy Dave's cunning plan.

capt-price's picture

Salmond's problem is, and always has been his arrogance. He seems to think that Independence is something that appeals, in principle at least, to the majority of Scots. He's wrong and at the moment he know's it. This Bannockburn horse-shit, do me favour. Next he'll be pushing for STV to show Braveheart on the eve of the Referendum.

When the SNP lose, where will that leave Salmond?

Gregor Addison's picture

Yet again we get the notion that democracy is a gift and can be given or withheld as Westminster see fit. If it is up to the Scottish people to decide on their democratic future, then let them. I see some Labour peers have been floating the idea of having Scottish ex-pats vote - how will they work out exactly who is entitled to vote? Surely, the referendum should be held in Scotland and open to all who are resident there.

David's picture

Rather than call Salmond's bluff, Cameron has done exactly what Salmond wants him to do. He can now show that Cameron's 'respect agenda' was contemptible nonsense and that Westminster are trying to interfere in Scottish affairs. And you clearly, yet again, George, show scant understanding of Scottish politics. The SNP's referendum can only be consultative anyway, since the constitution is a reserved matter, so if they go ahead with the 2014/5 referendum then it will be as it always was going to be.

In response to Mike Roberts: Scotland is not 'subsidy hungry' since the level of revenue generated here is higher than public spending, therefore we subsidise the rest of the UK. It is Westminster which is subsidy hungry, not Scotland.

David's picture

And this is a distraction from the major issue the UK government should be focussing on: sorting out the economy.

Alexander Mitchell's picture

The thing is this is a no-win for Cameron. If he ignored the problem, the SNP will yell about his lack of interest in Scotland and when he's gotten involved he is denounced as prejudicing Scottish democracy, or the ludicrous idea of dictating to Salmond...

Fact is this, Scotland is no longer governed on many issues of importance to Scottish society (policing, education, health etc) run from Westminster. It is done in Holyrood. The SNP know this, but the fail to see that most Scots, myself included, are largely apathetic about it all. They know what counts is run by Scots, and that there are more Scots in Westminster helping to run the common affairs of the UK. It's gotten to the stage were Scots vote Labour solidly for Westminster and SNP for Holyrood. We understand the nuance of governance in the UK, as well as the Northern Irish and Welsh do. It's why the SNP (and PC in Wales) fail to win massively in UK elections. Salmond boasted about 20 SNP MPs at the last election and ended up with about 7, where as Labour, took nothing for granted, and won 50% of the vote. A year later at Holyrood, nearly the reverse. It seems the SNP have become prisoners to the Devolution settlement. Not relevant enough at UK level to win backing for Westminster, whilst Labour are approaching that position at Holyrood.

This is an interesting dynamic. I think that, as we live in a representative democracy, we need to have a referendum created by a committee of all parties in Holyrood. With MSPs appointed based on the proportion of seats their parties hold, this allows for a broadly consensual referendum to be formed and voted on. It should only be YES NO and have no Devolution Max/Status Quo in it. I agree on the need for more powers in Edinburgh, but we need't muddy the waters on the biggest issue of the day in Scotland. We need to be concise and to the point. I reckon the Scots will, perhaps narrowly, back the Union, which will make 2016 an interesting election for the SNP and Salmond's position in his party an interesting one too.

On calling bluffs the pro-Union side missed their greatest chance on this in 2008, Wendy Alexander, done the right thing by calling for the referendum to be brought forward. Had it been dealt with by 2011, then we would certainly be in an interesting place now. Scottish Labour had him then, with their pledge to allow it through Salmond would have been in an extremely difficult place, one which I think even he would have found hard. This whole 'The Unionists blocked us then...' narrative is emerging. Had we followed Alexander's lead and been bold I reckon this would be a dead issue now, and possibly too Salmond's career.

Alexander Mitchell's picture

The only practicable solution is federalism in the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland bound together in a federal system. It's the only way devolution can go in preserving the UK.

Benjamin Rae's picture

The SNP polls poorly in UK elections because the Scottish people know that they can never have enough numbers in a UK context to achieve anything meaningful at Westminster. However, on a level playing field things are rather different much to the annoyance of the Labour party.
Cameron is leader of a party almost universally despised in Scotland. Cameron attempting tie conditions and restrict options available to the Scottish people in terms of their own democratic future is offensive to any reasonable person.
The result of an independence referendum may well affect the rest of the UK to a degree but that doesn't mean he should be playing games in an attempt to make Scotland more likely to remain part of the UK. He has zero democratic mandate up here.
From a pragmatic selfish point of view I'm happy for him to tread his size 9s all over Scottish politics in the run up to the referendum but his actions are offensive

Mike Thomas's picture

Dear Mr. Salmond,

Please hold your referendum soon, please win and take Scotland and the Labour Party with you.

Leave the rest of the union to the Conservatives to govern - thank you.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Where'as the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems are good fair minded, honest people I assume. Give me a break.

jem1's picture

The argument really needs to be reversed. the English should have a vote about getting out of the union (esp with the Scottish). That should achieve the objectives both of the Scots - to finally sink on their own, - and for the English to cure a minor but irritating itch.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Jem,
perhaps you could go away spread your nasty little comments around the the Daily Mail or Express, Sun or something.
You should find plenty of like minded people there.

la potenza della speranza's picture

Cameron and genius in the same sentence?

Get off the glue!

Alexander Mitchell's picture

@Benjamin Rae, I'm sorry to burst this bubble, but the Tories have consistently been the 3rd party in Holyrood since 1999. It was Lib-Dem collapse not a Conservative one in 2011. I'm no Tory, but even I can see they do hold a certain sway with the electorate. In fact most of Salmond's big police policies were pushed through by the Tories, the number the SNP wanted to increase police by was considerably smaller than the Tory quota. He had to increase to get the Tory support.

Conservatism in rural Scotland has not been replaced or lanced, it's merely been replaced by the SNP, who do have a certain conservative air about them. They are after all a 'non-denominal' party, focused on independence above all else. If you were to sum them up they are purely centrist populists in policy. Free school meals and prescriptions distinctly of the left, but a degree of euroscepticism and fiscal prudency which is largely a Tory trait. They are an interesting party as they cover the centre so neatly. Pro-Business and Pro-Public sector. They are essentially a refined, Scottocised-New Labour imo.

I reckon in an independent Scotland the Tories would do well, as there would almost certainly need to be a huge rebalancing of the state towards the private sector. Michael Fry, a small c conservative writer has argued this for years. An independent Scotland would become a more conservative Scotland. Even the Labour Party in Scotland is distinctly conservative in outlook, it is tough on crime in its announcements and gives a facade of toughness on certain social problems, which UK Labour doesn't. Scotland in my opinion is conservative in her values, but approves of solidarity in achieving these values. It's an odd mix.

I reckon if we returned to 79 seats in Scotland the Tories would have more than 1 seat. Seats like Edinburgh Pentlands, the division of the Perthshire and Aberdeen seats and some in the more affluent parts of Glasgow and the Borders would most certainly be blue.

C Baker's picture

A question to all those that oppose cameron's stance.

Do you think there should be a referendum on Scottish independence.

My answer is yes. I feel that Scottish voters have the right to this.

So what are the pro Scottish independence people actually against?

Please enlighten me.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Alexander Mitchell,
perhaps I overstated a bit in relation to the conservatives but I also think you are being bit generous on your description of the support they hold.
Most of those who don't vote Tory dislike them intensely. The get around 15% of the vote give or take in Scottish elections. That leaves around 85% of of the electorate. Now I accept that SNP retains a degree of Conservatism in some quarters but I would also say that it is now more of a Social Democratic party than Labour.
Your point about the co- between the SNP and the Tories is more about a joint dislike of Labour and for convenience rather than some meeting of ideological partners.
Now, once independence is achieved then I'm not entirely sure I'll continue my membership. I am probably among the most left wing of their members.
If someone in Scotland truly wants to take a different direction from the despicable policies being pushed through at Westminster then I don't see that they are left with any option but to go for independence. The Labour party is too shackled by how successfully the right has pushed the centre ground in England rightwards.
I'd rather deal with 15% of Tory voters in Scotland than the amount in England

Onias's picture

@Marbles
"Have you watched the news recently?"
Why, has Ireland's fortunes changed?

David Lindsay's picture

Alex Salmond's bluff has been called. No wonder he is only putting up that Sturgeon on the radio and the television.

Sturgeon is a major reason why independence would be the death of the SNP as surely as a No vote, or a failure to hold a referendum at all. How many people in the very wealthy and very right-wing SNP heartland of the North East of Scotland would continue to vote for her and for her party's many other Hard Left characters once the constitutional question had been settled to their own satisfaction?

scott's picture

All those who say Scotland will sink if independent need to ask their self deluded selves this question...
If more money moves north than south then why the attempt to hijack independence? none of you know anything other than what you read and see on the news (myself included) which is so heavily censored its a joke.

we have the right to decide our own future whether that be part of the UK or not and the debates should be regarding the economic impact rather than people slagging each other off something that neither myself or anyone else here has considerable knowledge of. There are a handful of people who do know and are keeping it to themselves in Westminster.

If England subsidized Scotland and not the other way around then it would be all over the news in a flash and that would be the end of it! its not because it probably would anger Scots if it came to light how much we were being robbed. Are we really to beleive that our English neighbours out of some love for their Scottish brothers continue to carry our financial burden through these difficult time out of genuine care for our wellbeing? facts are facts, enough said game over.

Benjamin Rae's picture

David Lindsay,
oh yes, Cameron has outfoxed Salmond. Keep dreaming. Shame he couldn't use that intelligence to further his own parties fortunes in Scotland.
If you believe Salmond is worried or at all surprised by the recent events your kidding yourself. You might be surprised to hear that the SNP have thought about and planned for manoeuvres that the likes of Cameron might try.

David Lindsay's picture

Benjamin Rae, he is furthering his own party's fortune in Scotland.

A longstanding, and historically dominant, electoral coalition in Scotland is now once again sufficiently numerous there to deliver an overall majority even under a system designed to prevent one.

That coalition's elements are moderate Keynesianism, mild social conservatism, unideological ad hoc populism, gentility or the aspiration to it, a certain shortbread tin idea of Scottishness, visceral dislike of municipal Labour and the trade unions, and a fringe of white Protestant supremacism.

On those votes, Scotland has the Tory majority government that England has not. All that is needed to bring it home organisationally, even if only by default, is to take out its latest vehicle.

Not holding a referendum would do that. Losing a referendum would do that. And winning a referendum would do that: what would the SNP then be for? Why on earth should the above elements continue to vote for, or even with, its Far Left activists all the way up to the present Deputy Leader? They simply would not do so.

But they are the sort of people who would certainly vote for someone. Guess who?

thomcross's picture

Cameron hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah ahh ahh ahh
Sorry I cant type for laughing at the sheer folly of Eaton or is it Eton?

Marbles McMoon's picture

"The First Minister has long intended to hold a referendum in the second half of the Scottish parliament, perhaps in 2014 on the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn"

That idea is ludicrous, ill-informed drivel:

http://wingsland.podgamer.com/?p=13371

Benjamin Rae's picture

David Lindsay,
I'm not going to bother disentangling your post as it appears your disappearing up your own ar#e with so called logic. Your picking titbits of information out and trying to convince yourself that the right is heading for a meaningful revival of the right.

john henry's picture

Scotland and the Scottish MUST see that there is NO FUTURE being with an out of date, collapsing United Kingdom. It's time for Scotland to stand on its own and claim itself to be an independent nation. The English want it and so should we. It's time to caste-off the English Yoke.

David Lindsay's picture

Benjamin Rae, it is not a matter of "reviving" the Right. The Right is in power in Scotland, on the majoritarian basis that is not the case in England.

The question is, in the medium to longer term, which of the two rival right-wing parties gets to benefit from that manifest right-wing majority? The one with right-wing activists as well as right-wing leaders and right-wing voters, if it plays its cards right.

And its cards cannot really be playyaed wrong: no referendum, no more SNP; a No vote, no more SNP; a Yes vote and, soon enough, no more SNP.

No wonder the Tories want the referendum the day before yesterday. No wonder Salmond doesn't want it until after he is dead, if ever.

Marbles McMoon's picture

"Scots look at the mess an independent Ireland is in."

Have you watched the news recently?

jem1's picture

Benjamin Rae, perhaps it's because you've no sense of humour, or that the issue of playing identity politics is too nuanced for you (and others) to understand the risks unleashed by appeasing nationalism. it is simply no argument to effectively accuse everybody else of being 'lowlife' whilst you (of course) are quite happy and apparently able to 'deal' with them. Oh yes? Dream on.

Insomniac's picture

I really can't understand what the Objection is to Camerons intervention here. He's accepted that a referendum will take place, and is willing to pass legiislation in order to ensure it is legal (which it wouldn't be without uk parliament intervention). This is clear from the Scotland act establishing the Scottish parliament. Like it or not the uk parliament is still sovereign and is responsible for constitutional matters.
What's wrong with a referendum overseen by the electoral commission using the same franchise as the Scottish parliament election (from which the snp obtained their mandate), with a single yes/no question and held sooner rather than later? Surely all this makes the referrendum a much simpler process and cannot be seen as interference. It seems to me the snp have more or less got what they asked for. Rather than interfering, as prime minister this is the responsible thing to do.
I would be sad if Scotland chose to go it alone as I believe the uk is stronger together, and is very frustrating to see the unionists constantly implying that Scotland couldn't survive on its own. This attitude plays straight into the snp's hands. What we need is to put a case for the positive aspects of the union so that Scots see the benefits, rather than the negative tone we keep hearing .

E. F.'s picture

Cameron is a bloody idiot. There are plenty of people in Scotland who do not really want Scotland to become independent but would like Holyrood to have more fiscal powers. Personally I support devolution max as a compromise. Everything Cameron does to try and prevent independence just winds Scotland up and makes it more likely. He's the best argument for independence there is, and is handling this situation so incompentently I begin to wonder if he's double-bluffing after all.

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