The Staggers

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The real reason the Lib Dems are languishing in the polls

Is there a pantomime in the land that didn't feature a "Nick Clegg breaking a promise" joke this Chr

By Richard Morris Published 03 January 2012 17:22

There is a great (though sadly, totally erroneous) quote attributed to Catherine the Great, which says:

You can be a murderous tyrant and the world will remember you fondly, but f*ck one horse and you will be a horse f*cker for all eternity.

It strikes me that there's a lesson in there for us Lib Dems.

There's an increasing tendency within the party to accept that our languishing in the polls is a natural price for being in government, especially during the worst economic maelstrom for 80 years. In such circumstances you do all sorts of unpopular things you'd rather not do -- and no-one likes the person administering the nasty medicine.

To adopt such an attitude ignores the fact that the other party in government is riding high in the polls regardless of the treatment they're doling out, while the Prime Minster remains the only national party leader with positive approval ratings.

So how come David Cameron gets to play the role of beloved tyrant, while Nick Clegg...?

It is because the nasty medicine is not at the forefront of people's minds when they think of the Liberal Democrats. It is lack of trust. Betrayal. An inability to keep a promise. It is still tuition fees.

Most people in the party are pretty bored talking about this now -- which is fine. But the country isn't. Is there a pantomime in the land that didn't feature a "Nick Clegg breaking a promise" joke this Christmas? I suspect not.

We can write a long list of positive, liberal achievements in government -- the pupil premium, lifting nearly a million low paid workers out of income tax, restoring the pensions to earnings link. Next year there'll be a load more -- like the Green Investment Bank.

But no-one will really be listening or giving us any credit. Because we still haven't put the original sin to rights yet. We could stand on a street corner throwing out £50 notes to strangers, and everyone would look at us quizzically before holding them up to the light to see if they're fake.

Of course, we must still carry on delivering on our manifesto and championing liberal causes in government. But we shouldn't expect the polls to change one iota when we do -- just as they didn't change last year. Because we'll get no credit for anything unless we resolve the tuition fees debacle.

Nick needs to say sorry. And sort it. Because until then, everyone has us marked down as horse f*ckers.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference

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Tags: Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg

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39 comments

Tue, 2012-01-03 17:40 — Des Demona (not verified)

What a refreshingly honest article! You're still horse fuckers though

Tue, 2012-01-03 17:43 — mike cobley (not verified)

Dear God, Richard, how can you be so obtuse? It doesnt matter what LD policies are put into practice, because we are colluding with the Tories in inflicting a range of ghastly Tory policies on the poor, the unemployed, the sick and the disabled. Thousands and thousands of jobs just flushed away, with a slew of awful and thoroughly predictable consequences for them and their families. Modern Tories look, sound and act like sociopaths, and the Libdems are allowing them to spread their cruelty around. This is why, Richard.

Tue, 2012-01-03 17:55 — Arturo Bandini (not verified)

Actually, comments 1 and 2 are BOTH correct.

Tue, 2012-01-03 18:13 — Barny

@ Andrew - *yawns* - you miss the point in a lengthy way. Forget LP members or even voters - it's the general public that you need to persuade and create a trusting relationship with, as the article clearly states...

Tue, 2012-01-03 18:30 — mark (not verified)

@Andrew: yes, but we need to find a way of summing that up in ten words!

Tue, 2012-01-03 18:37 — Duncan Stott (not verified)

While the new University funding system is fairer, that's not the point. Practically all Lib Dem MPs signed pledges saying they'd vote against raising them, but only 21 out of 57 kept their word. Voters are entirely justified in feeling betrayed.

The time for an apology was in the days during the vote. Over a year later and the public simply will be cynical about why Clegg is coming out with this now. I also doubt whether the public would accept an apology, although I accept that shouldn't necessarily mean not making it anyway.

In terms of why LD poll ratings are so low, the party's voting intention numbers had already done most of their sinking by the announcement of the new fees policy. Fees weren't the cause of the decline. They may however be a primary cause of the lack of recovery.

As Andrew points out, for voters to move to Labour as punishment for Lib Dem betrayal over fees is a travesty of justice.

Tue, 2012-01-03 20:29 — David (not verified)

I think even the writer misses the point. I am someone who voted Liberal Democrat for the last time in 2010 (never again, I might add). Most people don't give a damn about tuition fees; they care about the fact that the Lib Dems saddled us with what is effectively a Tory majority government. Clegg was hypnotised by the prospect of power and acted in his own self interest, not the national interest.

As for the 'liberal measures' which have been introduced in terms of taxation etc., these have been all but neutralised by the hike in VAT, the squeeze on wages, higher inflation.

People do not trust the Lib Dems because we have been given what we did not vote for: Cameron with a majority. Clegg is a spineless fool who did not understand what he was getting himslf, his party and the UK into.

Tue, 2012-01-03 21:07 — Sam (not verified)

I think we as a party are to blame, not just Clegg and the leadership. Even though Clegg should have realised that a hung parliament was a likely outcome in the months leading up to the election and it would be very likely that tuition fees would have to rise and not signed the pledge, we as a party put them in a position where we an unworkable policy that was the main attraction to our party for a pretty large amount of our voters. He should have bit the bullet and not signed the pledge even it had costed us some votes but as I have said, we're a democratic party who voted for this bad policy that put them in a difficult position.

We have to remember that the liberal thing to do is to make things accessible - not free.

I agree that it's probably too late for Nick Clegg to apologise unless he can reach out to the country and persuade them it's sincere.

The next election is going to be very difficult for us and we're going to have to rebuild our vote. If we can get 15-18% at the next election then that would be a relative success as things stand and a place where we could still build our party into a potential party of government.

Tue, 2012-01-03 21:32 — mike cobley (not verified)

Doesnt matter which of the further education funding variants on offer you look at, as it only amounts to rearranging the deckchairs on the student loan Titanic. Only reinstating university funding as it was before, and returning to the student funding model prior to Thatcher, will create the necessary access to university-level education based on merit, ie a genuine level playing field. All else is merely pandering to the privilege agenda of the elites.

Tue, 2012-01-03 21:34 — upnorthkid (not verified)

Finally. The penny drops. You didn't mention the utterly corrosive impact your party's actions have had on our political culture though. Post Iraq, post expenses inquiry, post our view of politicians being at an all time low, you manage to make us feel worse about them. Well done Mr Clegg. The most cynical and damaging politician in my lifetime. And I lived through Thatcher.

Tue, 2012-01-03 21:38 — upnorthkid (not verified)

Oh and @ Andrew Emmerson.

It's not Labour 'lies' you need to overcome. It's the utter contempt of a generation of students and their parents. If tuition fees were such a fantastic idea there would presumably be countless photos like this one http://www.leftfootforward.org/images/2010/10/Nick-Clegg-tuition-fees-pl... pledging to support them come what way. Beneath contempt.

Tue, 2012-01-03 21:55 — Dickie1

"We can write a long list of positive, liberal achievements in government..."

"But no-one will really be listening or giving us any credit. Because we still haven't put the original sin to rights yet."

A rare moment of clarity. But you won't win votes just for knowing it. You had your chance and blew it. Adios.

Wed, 2012-01-04 00:25 — Dave B (not verified)

I think the juvenile behaviour of LD MPs/Ministers is the LDs biggest problem.

Wed, 2012-01-04 00:36 — David (not verified)

Sam, there is no way you'll get anywhere near 15% unless the Tory vote melts down at the next election.

Thu, 2012-01-05 16:25 — Fraziel1

You have no principles. You chop and change and all to get your hands on power. I see lib dem MP's like Sarah Teather and Jo Swinson on question time both avidly supporting the tories and policies that just a year ago they were fighting as hard as they could to oppose. It's one thing to be in a coalition with the tories but do your mp's have to be so downright enthusiastic about it?

You are hypocrites and liars and you can never ever be trusted. 1% in the polls in Scotland. I look forward to your annihilation and hopefully the end of your party at the next election. You sold your souls and everyone knows there is a reckoning at some point if you do that.

Wed, 2012-01-04 01:26 — Dave B (not verified)

@David
ICM have the LDs polling @ 14% now.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention

Wed, 2012-01-04 03:39 — Iain (not verified)

Labour claimed it had an ethical foreign policy, and then invaded Iraq in an illegal war resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians. They assured us it was to get rid of weapons of mass destruction that never existed.

Who lied?

Labour claimed it would never introduce tuition fees, and then did.

Who lied?

Labour claimed it would protect pensioners, and then offered them a measley 75p pension increase.

Who lied?

Labour claimed its priority was Education, Education, Education and then spent millions privatising our school buildings.

Who lied?

Labour said it would protect our NHS and then privatised the out of hours GP service.

Who lied?

Which party's MP's have been imprisoned for fiddling expenses? Which party proposed to remove the cap on tuition fees all together? Which party sold our hospitals to private investors under dodgy PFI schemes? Oh yes, the Labour Party.

Wed, 2012-01-04 08:24 — nourredine (not verified)

For a long time the LD party was seen as sitting on the fence, when Njck Clegg took the plunge with the tuition fees he tried to show that his party changed and he is ready to govern.
The public tried reluctantly to give him the benefit of the doubt, the LD finally signed with the tories and unfortunately went against their only pledge which should made them different to other parties instead it was seen as a betrayal for the youth.
They should have resisted the tory but went with them in a watered policy which made the LD look bad,feeling of signing with the nasty party (just look at Danny Alexander on PMQ).
the public will not forget until the next election to teach the LD a lesson of how to treat people.
I feel the LD thought for themselves and not for the country, this is how the public at large sees it.
Today there are little differences between the major parties, They all lied to gain to govern.
People are fed up of the same rhetoric.
Politic need to change.

Wed, 2012-01-04 10:31 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Lib dems make me laugh. The Labour are dishonest. Does that make what the LDs did okay? Nope
Apparent from the most obvious lie in recent political history they've thrown their lot in with the bunch of right wing nutcases that is the Tory party these days.
Outrageous attacks on the sick , disabled , NHS and a number of other groups have ensued. Before they are sold as 'tough choices' their not tough if you don't give a toss.
It's far tougher for those on the recieving end. Everybody knew the Tories were social darwinists now we know the LDs are as well.

Wed, 2012-01-04 11:28 — Sam (not verified)

@ The Voice of Reason - Nick Clegg was always open about being an economic liberal. Also, higher education is far from being a free market system. If you can't pay off your loan then you don't have to pay it off and the government will pay it off for you. Hardly a free market.

Wed, 2012-01-04 11:35 — Dave C (not verified)

"Nick needs to say sorry. And sort it. Because until then, everyone has us marked down as horse f*ckers."

I can't see that an apology from Clegg & co would make any difference.
To pick up the horrible analogy, a bestialist who said sorry would still be derided as a bestialist.

Jonathan Price writes, "Much as I like and admire Nick Clegg, I think the only solution is a new leader. The only question is when is the best time."

There are at least two other questions.

Who? Chris Huhne (who struck me as a better potential leader than Clegg) is under a cloud until the penalty points prosecution is resolved (and only then if in his favour).

Other potential leaders are difficult to spot. Vince Cable seems reluctant and is 'too old' by today's harsh standards.

The second question is what would a new leader say?
If Clegg were to be replaced by another coalition cheerleader, such as Danny Alexander or Ed Davey, then the public's perception that the Lib Dems were merely Tory poodles would continue.

Simon Hughes as leader might distance himself from the Tories but would still be tied in to supporting them until May 2015.

Wed, 2012-01-04 11:35 — Kippers

Stop the NHS "reforms" in their tracks. They make no sense, they were in no manifesto, they have nothing to do with managing the economy. So stop supporting them and walk out of the coalition if the Conservatives try to push them through.

Wed, 2012-01-04 11:56 — Livers (not verified)

I voted LD in the last election as down my way its always a two-horse race between LD/Tory.

I won't bother voting now.

Because whoever I vote for the Tories will get in

For me, and I suspect for a lot of people, a vote for the LD is essentially a vote for the Tories.

Wed, 2012-01-04 14:53 — Andyb (not verified)

The Lib Dems were always in a losing position the moment the election results were made official. If they joined the Tories to form a government, they would be criticised for being in bed with the devil and ditching all those high and mighty principles of theirs. If instead they had refused to join a coalition and had forced a re-election, they would also have been demonised for not listening to the people and for being selfish and undemocratic.

They are in a position where they simply can't win. While no doubt those clowns in the labour party (the same incompetent lot we had last time) will win the next election.

Wed, 2012-01-04 16:29 — David (not verified)

@Andyb: The government of the country was not contingent upon the Lib Dems forming a coalition. They would have got on better if they allowed a minority Tory government to be in power. This model worked successfully in Scotland between 2007-10, when the SNP were a minority administration and several of the opposition parties' policies were accepted and implemented because the SNP had to build a concensus. Had the Lib Dems not been so desperate for power and sat back and thought about it, there would be a Tory government, but one which was forced to seek concensus rather than the current one which acts with impunity. The cuts may not have been as severe, nor might they have been so disastrously front-loaded and the economy might actually be growing. But now we have the opposite: a Tory-Lib Dem coalition which behaves like a Tory majority, and is incompetently destroying the foundations of the country - particularly the English NHS and state school system (which, let's face it, has been a bit of a disaster area for a considerable length of time).

@Dave B: you cannot extrapolate the result in one opinion poll (and the margin of error means that an accurate level of support may not even be as high as 14%) to that of a general election three years hence. I will be stunned if the Lib Dems get anywhere near that level of support once the country delivers its verdict. The south of England will go Tory, no doubt wiping the Lib Dems out in the West Country; and the north will go Labour, wiping them out up there too. They might retain their seats in the north of Scotland, assuming the UK still exists, but there will be many Lib Dem deposits lost at the next election. Had they not joined this disastrous coalition, their support would likely be higher.