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Salmond should change the question

Scottish First Minister criticised for "loaded" question on independence.

Our poll on Scottish independence, showing that the gap between the Yes and No camps has narrowed to just a point, has caused quite a stir north of the border, providing the Herald with its front page splash today (see below).

The full question we asked voters was "Do you support Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?" But Alex Salmond's version - "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" - is already the subject of furious debate. Though commendably simple, it is has been rightly criticised as a leading question.

Alistair Darling, who has become something of an unofficial spokesman for Unionism, said:

The question is loaded. He is inviting people to endorse the separation of a successful independent nation. He is not asking if you want to remain part of the United Kingdom, which I would prefer.

It is asking for trouble and if he tries to push through unfair wording someone will go to court. It's typical of Salmond who wants to call the shots on the rules, the conduct, the wording and ultimately what the result means.

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Robert Cialdini, an American psychologist with no stake in the race, told the Today programme:

I think it's loaded and biased because it sends people down a particular cognitive chute designed to locate agreements rather than disagreements. It's called a one-sided question or a loaded question... [pollsters] for a long time have warned us against those sorts of questions.

There's a very simple fix to de-biasing those sorts of questions. Instead of saying how much do you agree with this policy or option the survey takers simply have to say how much do you agree or disagree... That produces an even handed and unbiased approach.

So far, Salmond, who has conceded that the UK Electoral Commission should run the referendum, has said that the commission will have "a role in assessing the questions" but has refused to say whether it would have a veto over the final wording.

One can't fault his Machiavellianism but if the referendum is to be credible, it is hard to see how Salmond can avoid amending the question.

18 comments

Hal's picture

The question is so vague as to be meaningless. Since Scotland is to a large degree independent, it could at one extreme be taken to mean an endorsement of the status quo. On the other extreme it could mean leaving both the UK and the EU.

So I think the Westminster government's position should be that a yes vote for Salmond's question would not lead to any negotiations about separation from the UK.

Unionists could campaign for a yes vote arguing that it means the status quo whereas a no vote would mean ending the Scottish parliament.

pickwick's picture

Are we supposed to not notice that Alistair Darling's preferred question would be equally "leading", but in the other direction?

All Cialdini seems to be saying is it'd be better if they asked "Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country", which I'm pretty sure isn't what Darling et al are saying.

Smacks of desperation, but then the entire unionist "campaign" does...

Lox's picture

You are clutching at straws, George. How stupid do you think the Scottish electorate are? Here's a question you might like:

"Do you think that Scotland should risk eternal penury by rejecting the largesse of their betters in Westminster?"

Tell me-what exactly is your problem with Scottish self-determination? Have you ever looked at any other nation's debate on political independence from a larger neighbour with the same perspective? Somehow I doubt it. So I can only guess that your disapproval of Scottish nationalism reflects a fear of the effect on the likelihood of Labour government for England in future, or else that you have some irrational attachment to a completely redundant concept of Britishness.

Patrick Hadley's picture

While the precise wording of a question is very important when conducting opinion polls, does it really matter for a referendum?

Over the years before the vote the campaigns will make the choice very clear, IN or OUT, YES or NO, INDEPENDENCE or UNION. Voters will make their mind up based on the way the question is framed by the debate, and the actual words on the ballot will not make any difference. I doubt if many people will change their minds just because of the words on the ballot paper.

Dizzy dummy (no, not me, the Tories)'s picture

When I first read the question I actually thought it wasn't strong (or as they call it "leading") enough.

Rather than *should* Scotland seek independence, I'd use "Do you *want* Scotland to become independent?".

This gives a voice to those Scots who want an independent Scotland despite thinking that perhaps it shouldn't happen. That might be a minority (in fact I'd bet money on it) but doesn't a referendum seek people's wishes rather than their undemanding opinions?

I don't think it matters that it's a leading question. The professor gives examples of polls that have shown bias. Well, naturally, careful use of language can steer people in one direction or another if they are possess limited knowledge or understanding of a topic, or if they have no pre-decided opinion either way. Such influence would happen to some people when they are polled out of the blue but to think that a 2014 referendum is going to be a surprise, or that people won't have been exposed to a lot of information prior to polling day, and that they won't have at least some idea of where they stand, is rather naive in my view.

I'm not neutral like the professor. I'm British and I don't want Scotland to initiate a break-up of our union. However, despite that bias of my own, I have no problem with the strong form of the question that I put above. That's because I don't think the benefits match the disadvantages for Scotland and I believe that enough Scots will see that to outweigh the "leading question" effect, if any.

David's picture

George, yet another instance of crass stupidity posing as journalism. The question was posed as part of a consultation exercise and it is to be subjected to cognitive testing before a final wording is decided and put to the Scottish people in 2014. I have yet to read a credible, unbiased article on this matter written by your hand. And quite frankly, cherry picking a couple of quotes that support your view and resorting to insulting language is really, really shoddy.

@Keith Steele: Do you seriously think additional interference by Westminster in the referendum would do anything other than increase support for independence? It would be highly irregular (and unwise in the extreme) for the leader of an already discredited coalition with no mandate in Scotland to meddle in the affairs of a majority Scottish government. Besides, Cameron has other problems to deal with concerning the state he and his cronies are dragging the UK into thanks to their incompetence. The electorate in Scotland are not fools, which is why even Labour are at risk of becoming irrelevant in Scotland - an unthinkable thought not to long ago. They arrogantly assumed the people would be sick of the SNP after one term as a minority as administration and then were comprehensively rejected at the ballot box. If the SNP are thought to be 'rigging' the referendum, the people will reject it. However, Unionist claims that this is happening smack of desperation. If "it's a fix" is the best they can come up with, Unionists should concede defeat now.

kenelm's picture

There is nothing wrong with the question. Those pretending it is biased, or worrying about a "cognitive chute", really should get a life.

@Hal really takes the biscuit, though. Yes means no, indeed! What a joker. The Scottish people are not fools.

Christian Wright's picture

I wonder what part of "You lost the election!", these LABOUR LUVVIES don't get. Eaton appears to be a particularly mendacious hack.

Stuart Eels's picture

We certainly live in exciting times, I see nothing wrong with the question but then I agree with the entire break-up of this warmongering Union.

I have a feeling that politically, that its going to be fun over the next few years.

Fergus Pickering's picture

The question is indeed improper. Such questions can lead to swings of eight or nine per cent in the preferred direction. I think the Scots should do what they want, however foolish, but with a question like that it might not BE what they want. And I think the English shouldn't give an inch on anything about money. And, in the short term independence would give us Tory power, which would, in my Tory opinion, be an excellent thing.

MarkR's picture

The question is perfectly adequate for anyone who has half a brain. Maybe that is the Unionists' problem.

RabtheCairnTerrier's picture

The "loaded question" is just so musch guff - no one in Scotland who hasn't been in a catatonic state for several years is in any doubt that an independent Scotland means a break with the rest of the UK. Are we all supposed to be both thick and ignorant? No, don't bother with that last bit - I can just imagine the response.

Bill Fraser's picture

Speaking as someone who will be among those voting in 2014, there is nothing wrong with the proposed independence question on the ballot paper...

However, I would prefer the choice to be between... independence and devo-max... rather than the dumb "no" option.

If it is to be a rigged vote... a choice between "no" and independence... then without question I will vote for the latter option, irrespective of the outcome.

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