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The right tries to blame youth unemployment on immigration -- again

MigrationWatch has been allowed to get away with irresponsible scaremongering for too long.

Eighteen months ago, MigrationWatch published a report which attempted to show a relationship between immigration and youth unemployment in different parts of the UK. The methodology was comprehensively demolished here by my IPPR colleague Sarah Mulley -- but not before the report had generated the desired round of headlines such as "Migrants rob young Britons of jobs".

Today, as the nation worries about a "lost generation" with over a million young people unemployed, and an increasing proportion out of work for more than a year, MigrationWatch are at it again, with another report: Youth unemployment and immigration: more than a coincidence.

The report takes two dates -- 2004, when Eastern Europeans started coming to the UK in large numbers after the expansion of the European Union, and 2011. It notes that over this period in the UK, the number of Eastern European workers rose by around 600,000, while the number of unemployed young people rose by around 450,000. The head of MigrationWatch, Andrew Green, then comments that:

Correlation is not causation but when the two statistics are placed side by side most objective people would consider it a very remarkable coincidence if there was no link at all between them.

And while the report rambles on for another six pages, that's really about it. MigrationWatch have clearly learned the lesson of their last attempt: the more detail there is in their report, the easier it is for people who actually understand statistics or economics to show them up. Why bother, if simply asserting that the two numbers are suspiciously similar is enough to have the desired effect?

To anyone who is actually interested in how immigration affects our labour market, there is a good deal of high quality research on the subject: a useful review of the literature can be found here. In summary, while some studies have found some impact on wages, particularly towards the bottom of the wage distribution, hardly any studies have found any significant impact on overall unemployment. (Coincidentally, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research is publishing another report today, in the first major study to look at National Insurance Number data to examine the same issue.)

I don't wish to duplicate this body of research, nor get too deep into the detail of economic modelling; so I will confine myself to highlighting three points, which demonstrate the total inadequacy of MigrationWatch's report.

First, the choice of dates. MigrationWatch's chosen start-date is 2004. That is understandable, in the sense that it is when large scale Eastern European migration to the UK began. But it hides the fact that youth unemployment clearly started rising before that, around 2002 (see here). If immigration caused unemployment, you would expect to see immigration starting to rise first, followed by youth unemployment. In fact, it is the other way round. (Some readers might be tempted to reply that other kinds of immigration were rising before 2004. But while this is true, it can't help MigrationWatch, because those other kinds of immigration started rising in the late 1990s, after which point youth unemployment continued to fall for five years.)

Second, the fact that MigrationWatch focus on the change in the two variables across the whole period. This makes the numbers look at least vaguely similar. But what happens if you look in slightly more detail within the chosen period? If MigrationWatch's hypothesis was right, you would expect to see the steepest increase(s) in youth unemployment at the same time as, or shortly after, the big increase(s) in immigration. But here too, the picture is the opposite: the big increase in youth unemployment came in 2008 and 2009, during the recession caused by the financial crisis (that being a clue to what might really be going on), which was precisely the time when net immigration from Eastern Europe fell close to zero (see fig 2.2 here. To be fair to MigrationWatch, this is plainly visible in the graph on p.2 of their report, though it isn't mentioned in the report or in the press notice sent to the media.)

Third, the lack of any attempt to test the correlation across different parts of the UK, or across different countries. Of course, as I have already pointed out, when in a previous report MigrationWatch did try to show that the correlation held across different parts of the UK, it was an embarrassing failure. What about other countries? It looks unlikely that there is any correlation here: the countries in the 'old' EU which have seen the steepest rises in youth unemployment since 2004, including Spain and Greece, have not had very high levels of migration from Eastern Europe; while Germany, which has had relatively high migration from Poland (despite maintaining transitional controls for the longest possible period), has relatively low youth unemployment.

Given the contents of the report, its title -- More than a coincidence? -- is almost funny. But in the end, yet another media intervention, designed to generate a round of headlines (in the Express, Telegraph, and Sun, and on the BBC) blaming historically high youth unemployment on foreigners, isn't funny at all. It is irresponsible and pernicious, as well as a distraction from the serious debate over practical measures to alleviate youth unemployment -- including IPPR's proposal of a job guarantee for those out of work for more than a year.

Britain clearly has a youth unemployment problem: one which started before the financial crisis, but has since risen to critical levels. But its causes are too complex to be reduced to blaming immigration, just as the effects of immigration on the labour market are too complex to be reduce to the endlessly repeated headlines about "foreigners taking all the new jobs". New migrants compete for jobs with existing residents, but they also fill gaps, make our labour market more flexible, and bring energy and creativity, all of which promote growth -- meaning more jobs to go around. The net effect of all of this on the overall economy is hard to assess, but most economists agree it is positive. The net effect on different groups within the economy is even harder to assess. Again, for most, it will be positive -- though not for all. But this needs careful research, and honest presentation, not the kind of scaremongering which the media has let MigrationWatch get away with for too long.

Matt Cavanagh is an Associate Director at IPPR. Follow him on Twitter @matt_cav_

35 comments

ISC's picture

The unemployed construction workers I deal with as part of my work are quite convinced that immigration hasn't helped their job prospects.

Rob's picture

Matt, are you seriously trying to say that you and your colleague, Sarah, have made the most exciting discovery in recent economic history - namely that the increased supply of migrants has had no effect on wages. Incredible. You should get a Nobel prize. Either that or your talking crap...

Tesco Shelf Stacker's picture

@Fraziel1 -I think that if you speak to normal people about their views on issues like immigration outside of the incompetent politics of westminster and their loyal journalists - you will soon discover that most of the general public do have their heads screwed on and can generally have a good dose of common sense - certainly more than the permanent political class that leads them. However, the political classes (Tory/Labour/LibDem - take your pick) have a very restrictive perspective of life - they have never experienced the real world and most have been parachuted into politics from an isolated privilege life far removed from normal everyday lives of 99% of the people out there. The political class must then rely on organisations like this to provide statistics and research for them on issues such as immigration. Predictably, most of the research done is just politically biased tosh and unfortunately this cr@p dressed as 'research' influences government policy which then leads to ill-informed and disastrous decision making (ie mass uncontrolled immigration). I seriously think that if we want to see common sense again in british politics then the electorate must wake up to this exclusive and unrepresentative type of politics and begin throwing out the entire political class. Until that day arrives we should expect more out-of-touch politicans making cr@p decisions based on research thats based on bollox!

EatYourGreens's picture

I despair at the demonisation of immigrants, and the casual xenophobia of those who condemn them for 'stealing our jobs/houses/whatever'.

But what do you say to someone who asks 'okay, if "those people" had not come over here, would there not be more jobs/houses available for British workers?'

I love diversity and having lots of different types of people around, but then I'm not competing for work or housing against "low-wage immigrants".

EatYourGreens's picture

The left (of which I am a part) has a serious problem with immigration and the working classes. This is because the political class has become completely divorced from normal people - they are all Oxbridge economics / politics graduates.

The same could be said on minimum wage, benefits, pensions, children's services, care for the elderly. The political left proposes solutions so close to those put forward by the right that millions of people feel alienated from the whole process and disenfranchised.

Now the only people who vote in large numbers are those who fought for democracy more than half a century ago. And they are just voting for the choice between losing half their winter fuel allowance, or losing it all!

It's hard to see a way out for us really, the system entrenches itself. There are good people in politics but they are few and far between.

EatYourGreens's picture

Capitalist and Proud - okay so assuming we take your point on immigration, do you concede that some elements of capitalism can be harmful to society unless regulated?

If we are going to make progress, we need to work together, probably outside of the political process.

BigC's picture

@weyland

Absolute Cr@p. They get a refund if they're due one (i.e paid too much tax)...the same as YOU would! They don't automatically get it all back.

Mr Danger's picture

The minimum wage caused high youth unemployment.

Not that the left care. The policy was well meant, and that's the important thing.

westhillman's picture

Matt Cavanagh writes: "the fact that MigrationWatch focus on the change in the two variables across the whole period. This makes the numbers look at least vaguely similar. But what happens if you look in slightly more detail within the chosen period? If MigrationWatch's hypothesis was right, you would expect to see the steepest increase(s) in youth unemployment at the same time as, or shortly after, the big increase(s) in immigration."

These are the facts:

1. A8 migration only began after May 2004
2. In the three year period before this - 2002 to 2004 - youth unemployment increased by 15,000
3. Between 2004 and 2006 there was net long term immigration from the A8 of 156,000 - most of these were disproportionately young, motivated, prepared to work for low wages etc.
4. In the same period youth unemployment jumped by a whopping 96,000 - over six times the rate of increase before A8 migration started.

The conclusionm is obvious: Matt Cavanagh's rebuttal of the Migrationwatch work doesn't have a leg to stand on.

New statesman's picture

If the unemployment is caused by EU nationals coming into the UK from Poland etc etc ( which it can do nothing about)can anyone explain why the Coalition Govt has aimed its responses at NON EU nationals? Isn't that discrimination and racism aimed at just NON EU national. A Brit.

p j wall's picture

@David
Yes or No, Was Nationalism and Ethnicity used as a Pre text for the Horrific actions that followed in those countries?, What seems Illogical to most Humans (which i presume we all are), are the actions we are capable of towards each other if given the means and so called justification?, Obviously, nothing like that would ever happen in this country!, and everyone who questions immigration aren`t "Racist" but, there are Cranks!, who`d have no problem with those Horrific actions!!, the only difference is we as a country would never allow these Cranks to have positions of power?.
If this country never had one "Foreigner" in it, the Daily Heil, Express, and The Scum, would still find someone to Hate, Blame, and Persecute!, 'in print', for all the problems in this country?, We`re all still entitled to have an opinion!, that`s mine.

mcquade's picture

So pAter and Kzevin think a couple of anecdotes amount to tanglible empicirical evidence. Big D'OH!

Secondly Peter believes immigration "must have had an impact", as if it is some kind of immutable physical law proven centuries ago by scientists far more intelligent than himself. Well if it is 'a fact", Peter, where's you hard evidence? Since you don't have any, you may be better advised to heed the words of Mark Twain: "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt."

C Baker's picture

What are the figures? I don't believe immigration causes youth unemployment especially. However, I've seen many of what i would call the lower paid, minimum wage jobs, that i did in my yoof, such as cafe and bar work, shop work etc taken up by immigrants. I have no statistics. Just that whereas the joke used to be you were served by some spotty teenager in Mcdonalds, now it seems many have foreign acccents and it seems are recent immigrants.

When i've been unemployed and looked to agency work, it is now very competitive, due to a ready made, excellent immigrant work force. My sister employs some brilliant polish staff in her restaurant business. They were simply best for the job. Is that turning away British born youths? I don't know. Obviously immigrants are tax payers and consumers themselves in the economy. However, i do feel that there is far more choice to employers with some very able and skilled workers coming from the eu, prepared to work for the minimum wage.

This cuts out the need of expense for training and apprentiships for employers.

I'm not sure this is the same with higher paid jobs. But we certainly employ much needed foreign trained nurses in the nhs. We used to have nursing training in the uk.

So, i think the uk youth are being failed by being bypassed by employers because they are not given enough skills and training perhaps.

Chir0n's picture

While it's true that statistics can be used to prove whatever you want when quoted without some context, saying that common sense is the way to the truth isn't necessarily the answer either - who's common sense are we talking about and how good is their handle on the bigger picture?

The statistics showing that the big increases in youth unemployment happened at a time when immigration from Eastern Europe was extremely low is a fact. Now, how do you spin that statistic to tell a lie? Well, you do what MigrationWatch did by not providing accurate context.

Also, it is no coincidence that the big increases in youth unemployment occurred in the wake of the financial crises - simply a fact, not a lie.

We now have a global economy in which capital moves freely across borders and expecting labour to do any differently is unrealistic and to trying to stop it is hypocritical.

Education and training in this country are a joke when you consider we're a developed nation and herein lies a big part of the problem. Also, if we had a minimum wage that actually reflected the minimum required to live on, it would be harder to price British workers out of the market by offering wages that only immigrants used to much lower standards of living find attractive.

p j wall's picture

I watched a really interesting, but scary, documentary on Nat Geographic last week!, it was called "'Apocalypse' The Rise Of Hitler", anyone who watched it would of seen the Orchestrated campaign, and Propaganda against certain groups!, Goebells blamed all the ills of the country on these groups!, constantly, until the ignorant masses believed what they were told!!, The rest is History?. Even as recently as the 90s, in a modern Yugoslavia!, We saw what Nationalistic Idiots could get people to believe!, and more horrifically!, what people were prepared to do, all in the name of Nationalism??, I believe some idiots on the Far Right would blame Cancer on immigration, if they thought they could get away with it!!, Of course every country has to have a Limit on immigration, and this includes our Emigrants!, But, to blame Everything on immigration, is very lazy, and ignorant!!, and as we`ve seen in the past, it can be very Dangerous??.

Capitalist and Proud's picture

Looks like the daft left that write the articles for this site have ever been on a building site in the south east. You guys are a serious joke. These guys talk about the so called working class. Total losers the lot of yers.

Capitalist and Proud's picture

BigC..

It easy to go back and return as someone new.. So easy you actually don';t return you just come over with several IDs. Been done for years. The Irish did it back in the 40/50s. Sadly English guys cannot do it. The left have enslaved the working class.

Peter's picture

The desperate rapidity of the refutation shows how damaging the connection is. No amount of studies by Mulley or Blanchflower are going to undermine the basic accuracy of Migrationwatch's point. As an observation: I live in Lambeth, an area of high youth unemployment. The pavement is being repaved around where I live. Lambeth council is paying a contractor who is largely employing eastern European workers. A relative of mixed race - apprenticed in Devon - works on a hotel renovation contract in central London where he is the only non-Eastern European in a work force of 30. I expect most people - who have some connection to reality on the ground - could duplicate these stories from personal experience. The fact is a combination of rotten education and large scale eastern European migration must have had a significant impact on the employment prospects of British young people. If all the IPPR can do is stick its fingers in its ears and scream "na, na, na ..." the the uneducated youth of Britain is doomed.

Fergus Pickering's picture

What, may I ask, is responsible scaremongering. Presumably Michael Meacher's 1000 rambling words on how dreadful it will be for us outside the benevolent EU.

Robert Taggart's picture

Oneself would blame unemployment on employers - they be far too fussy about those they employ... they should be grateful anyone wants to work for them !
Also one would blame the benefits culture... this has now become such a 'job' to claim, counter claim, appeal, re-claim, re-counter claim, re-appeal... after all that one deserves payment - me knows you know !

Fraziel1's picture

We need some immigration, of course we do but the 250000 per year net immigration figure is alarming for anyone who does not want their wages driven down, as we now know has happened due to immigration levels as well as making it harder for British people to get jobs in an already harsh jobs market.

It is also a concern if you object to people coming here from the other side of the world to claim asylum when they could have gone to any one of a number of countries far nearer to home rather than the UK. They don't though and it is obvious why. Benefits and the NHS which adds hundreds of millions to an already atronomical benefits and NHS bill. Not to mention that many immigrants never work and put anything back into the country.

lastly, the effect on peoples communities. Anyone fancy a visit to Govanhill in Glasgow ( to name but one area)to see how immigratiom has blighted and devastated the community? I personally know 3 people who have had to move house due to their lives being made a round the clock misery by immigrants who refused to make any effort to respect the culture of the communities they have joined. I have experienced it myself and it was stressful,depressing and at times frightening.

We need to cap immigration, have far stricter entry rules and reject all asylum applications from people who could have claimed asylum in countries far closer to home.

Some might say its right wing, i just see it as putting your own countrys people first and plain old common sense.

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