Strong US growth undermines Osborne's boast

The Chancellor can no longer boast that the UK grew faster than the US in 2011.

Until recently, one of George Osborne's favourite boasts was that the UK economy had grown more in 2011 than the US. He consistently cited this fact as evidence that austerity, not stimulus, is the way to grow the economy. Here he is writing in the Telegraph in August:

The US economy has grown more slowly than the UK economy so far this year, despite fiscal stimulus in the former and fiscal consolidation in the latter, showing that the problem is not too much fiscal responsibility.

Well, the final results are in and it's not looking good for Osborne. While the UK economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011, figures out today show that the US economy grew by 0.7 per cent. Over the year, the UK grew by just 0.8 per cent, while the US grew by 1.7 per cent (see graph), suggesting that the problem may well be too much fiscal responsibility. Worse, in the 15 months since the Spending Review, the US has grown by 2.2 per cent, while the UK has grown by just 0.3 per cent.

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The $787bn US stimulus should have been much bigger (see Ryan Lizza's piece in this week's New Yorker for the full story of how Obama's advisers rejected the possibility of a larger stimulus) but it has undoubtedly helped the country to avoid the recession that now confronts the UK.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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To stop Jeremy Corbyn, I am giving my second preference to Andy Burnham

The big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Voting is now underway in the Labour leadership election. There can be no doubt that Jeremy Corbyn is the frontrunner, but the race isn't over yet.

I know from conversations across the country that many voters still haven't made up their mind.

Some are drawn to Jeremy's promises of a new Jerusalem and endless spending, but worried that these endless promises, with no credibility, will only serve to lose us the next general election.

Others are certain that a Jeremy victory is really a win for Cameron and Osborne, but don't know who is the best alternative to vote for.

I am supporting Liz Kendall and will give her my first preference. But polling data is brutally clear: the big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Andy can win. He can draw together support from across the party, motivated by his history of loyalty to the Labour movement, his passionate appeal for unity in fighting the Tories, and the findings of every poll of the general public in this campaign that he is best placed candidate to win the next general election.

Yvette, in contrast, would lose to Jeremy Corbyn and lose heavily. Evidence from data collected by all the campaigns – except (apparently) Yvette's own – shows this. All publicly available polling shows the same. If Andy drops out of the race, a large part of the broad coalition he attracts will vote for Jeremy. If Yvette is knocked out, her support firmly swings behind Andy.

We will all have our views about the different candidates, but the real choice for our country is between a Labour government and the ongoing rightwing agenda of the Tories.

I am in politics to make a real difference to the lives of my constituents. We are all in the Labour movement to get behind the beliefs that unite all in our party.

In the crucial choice we are making right now, I have no doubt that a vote for Jeremy would be the wrong choice – throwing away the next election, and with it hope for the next decade.

A vote for Yvette gets the same result – her defeat by Jeremy, and Jeremy's defeat to Cameron and Osborne.

In the crucial choice between Yvette and Andy, Andy will get my second preference so we can have the best hope of keeping the fight for our party alive, and the best hope for the future of our country too.

Tom Blenkinsop is the Labour MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland