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What lies behind the Tories' poll bounce?

The Tories surge past Labour in the polls after Cameron's rejection of a new EU treaty.

Suddenly, after remaining static for months, the polls are moving again. The latest Reuters/Ipsos-MORI survey, carried out after the EU summit, puts the Tories in the lead for the first time this year, with support for Cameron's party rising seven points to 41 per cent and support for Labour falling two points to 39 per cent. Similarly, the latest daily YouGov poll has the Tories two points ahead of Labour, the first time they've led with that pollster since December 2010. Labour's lead, which has stood at five to six points for the last month, has evaporated.

Of course, correlation does not equal causation, but it certainly seems as if Cameron's EU stance has benefited his party. This may seem surprising, since, as polling by Ipsos-MORI regularly shows, only four per cent of voters regard Europe as one of the most "important issues" facing the country. And yet it can still shift polls. There are at least two plausible reasons why. Firstly, for a minority of voters, Europe clearly is very important. The rise in support for the Tories has coincided with a revealing fall in support for Ukip. For a period, with ratings as high as seven per cent, Nigel Farage's party was snapping at the Lib Dems' heels but the latest YouGov poll has them on just three per cent. Britain's eurosceptics are returning to the Conservative fold.

Secondly, as UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells points out, Cameron's bulldoggery (and the favourable headlines it garnered) may have changed perceptions of the PM himself and his leadership. He notes: "[I]f it makes people think David Cameron is a stronger leader who stands up for the country it may improve perceptions of him across the board." Cameron's personal approval ratings remain higher than Miliband's, a fact Tory strategists have continually drawn comfort from. As I've noted before, leadership ratings are often a better long-term indicator of the next election result than voting intentions. Labour party frequently led the Tories under Neil Kinnock, for instance, but Kinnock was never rated above John Major as a potential prime minister.

It remains to be seen whether the Tory surge hardens into a permanent advantage. But the fragility of Labour's lead has been exposed for all to see. Miliband's party will still likely walk to victory in tomorrow's Feltham by-election but an unusually strong Conservative showing would raise further questions for Labour.

33 comments

matthew fox's picture

Luddite, you can't stop the music, no one can stop the music.

I know my boyfriend is gay Luddite, he has slept with you, and passed you around.

How does that saying go Luddite, two company, three's a........

ACMJ's picture

The Tory "bounce back" in the opinion polls doesn't seem to have caught on much with the Feltham and Heston voters, with Labour getting 54% of the turn out vote and the CONS getting a "massive Bounce back" of , 28% of the vote .
Either someone forgot to tell the voters that the opinion polls have Dave " the boy " Cameron surging ahead in the polls leaving poor Labour behind , or the polls are made out of Tory voters (mostly from the south of England ), still living in the fantasy land a new Era of Thatcherism which will last another 18 years, and can survive without the Lib-Dem support.
It is however possible that the polls are made up mostly of ex pats who have very little idea about the mood of the majority of the people in the UK .
It could be possibly a bit of both , as most of the polls are influenced by the Tory media .

Livers's picture

The question really should not be why have the Tories surged but rather why is the Labour vote so fragile?

I think the answer is Ed Miliband.

I'm really, really sorry, but he is not winning the hearts and minds of C2 and higher.

But then, where are the charismatic, intelligent and good-looking Leaders the nation craves?

Graeme Hancocks's picture

Given the almost hysterical reaction of the right wing press - mirrored in one or two comments here - this was pretty inevitable. "Right wing troll" is pretty accurate to describe the almost psychotic views of Europe that have been whipped up.

Chamberlain's popularity surged after he came back from Munich declaring "peace in our time". That didnt last. "Defending Britian's interests" (that is the cities interests and the tory party's interests, which are not the same thing)is meaningless, as in reality he did nothing of the sort. I think, will be shown in the months and years ahead. Deepening serious economic woes will have a sobering effect in the longer term - people will have real things to worry about, not the bogeyman of Europe.

Fertra's picture

"correlation does not equal causation"

Hey, Georgie is learning. I guess he did read those critiques of "The Spirit Level" after all...

stevem1's picture

Its hardly a surge. The whole point of Camerons' walk out was to take attention away from the state of the country. Classic PR. Manufacturing consent. When you look at the responses it's obvious that individuals don't know what happened or how it will affect the UK. In fact it has changed nothing. There will be no withdrawal from Europe,not even a referendum. If there was the slightest chance of either the markets would take fright. The so called new treaty is not in place and may never be. The whole thing has to be thrashed out in detail. There is a long way to go and it looks as though 2012 is going to make 2011 seem like a pleasant reverie.

matthew fox's picture

Luddite couldn't organise a bread fight in a Bakery Fox Hunter.

When the Tories deliver the goods, apart from mass unemployment?

I wish he actually backed up his rants with facts, instead of whining like Paul Staines.

If you don't stand up to ignorance, it only spreads Fox Hunter.

Fraziel1's picture

Well said Adam. Grace, you are kidding yourself on. This government should be deeply unpopular and yet it is ahead in the polls? If there was a snap election i think they would open up a wider gap and possibly get an overall majority, certainly a majority with the ulster unionists.Even as a public sector worker part of me hopes they do it as labour and the liberals are so out of touch with the feelings of most ordinary folk.

Luddite's picture

"What lies behind the Tories' poll bounce"? A credible alternative from Labour perhaps? Merry Christmas 1%. I see you've found a new friend!!

Luddite's picture

ACMJ are you for real; what mood in the country? most are reluctantly prepared to endure this coalition, but thankfully most in England haven't forgotten just how useless Labour was in government. How Labour allowed mass-uncontrolled immigration of cheap-Labour. Labour's foreign wars. Labour's love affair with Islamofascism. Labour hatred of the English working class, but i suppose we can all pretend Labour was a stonking brilliant enlighten Socialist alternative to the nasty, evil, uncaring and Nazi Tories.

Lou's picture

It could also be that those polled have no clue about what Cameron actually achieved re Europe. It's surprising how many people think he's repatriated rights back to the UK when he has done no such thing. I spent yesterday asking people what they thought, on the whole everyone thought the veto was great til you ask what the veto had achieved and then the overwhelming response I got was - repatriation of rights to the UK from Europe.

Luddite's picture

What did Cameron's achieve!! Lou Cameron defended British national interests, against Labour's continual appeasement. Why is French nationalism acceptable but Britain's self-interest is not? The French are desperate to say at the top table along with the economic powerhouse of Germany if that means destroying 500.000 British jobs in the financial services all well and good. France still thinks itself important it’s under sized president and his party may be desperate to claw back the patriot vote from Marine Le Pen at next year’s elections but to engineer racist anti-English sentiment to do so is very nasty and transparent. Coming from a French administration that so nonchalantly and arrogantly rides roughshod over EU regulations when it suits them. Sarkozy can munch all the garlic he likes but it will never cover the stench of French hypocrisy, it’s the hypocrisy that I find the most difficult to swallow The reality is that for years the UK has followed all EU directives to the letter and France and Germany just apply those in their own national interests. How on earth has EDF for example, owned by the French government been able to spend the last 15 years buying up other national electrical distribution companies and applying for contracts such as the UKs nuclear program, whilst they have been subsidised up to the hilt completely against all European legislation Britain is the 2nd largest contributor to the EU budget and most of the other EU countries are net beneficiaries. There leaders need to learn some manners and gratitude or are they looking for the likes of Sarkozy to be their savior - I don't think so. I know these up-sets many on the political-left, but all other Europeans leaders really do need to take a long intake of breath and listen to what the British are saying before swallowing French foreign policy.

C Baker's picture

One thing that intrigued me today. I was talking to some german relatives and a greek friend. They have lived in the uk for over 15 years(some a lot longer) and agree with Cameron's stance on europe. It struck me that they may be referred to as little englanders. Yet, they are people that make up the uk, whilst being born outside. So to a certain extent, we are seeing a geographical interest, rather than a nationalistic one as such. Protecting the rights of the place where you reside and the rules which are applied. Also, a polish lady i used to work with does not want to see the Zloty go in Poland, as she likes the exchange rate from the uk. So the opinions of these european voices in the uk counts.

Back to labour. I think that many of the working classes, feel let down by Labour and that many of them may be far more nationalistic in spirit, than lib dem or tory voters, that hop across the channel to second homes etc.

It may seem ironic that Gerry Adams agrees with cameron about europe. Could we have a sinn fein and tory coalition?! Peace at last.

So the european question is calling forth some very interesting questions about democracy and identity. Now whilst economic hardship, may well raise it head more, i still think the european question will actually now be the biggest decider at the polls in future and won't go away. Esecially as the eu is constantly asking for more money and more powers.

Cameron has higlighted what the eu can and can't do and the voters are becoming more informed about europe.

Mombasa69's picture

Nevermind what the spinless comments say, the Tory lead is down to a tougher stance on the pathetic EU, and about bloody time, f**k you Germany and France!

Fraziel1's picture

I think they have gained popularity for a very simple reason. He actually appeared to listen to the public.Something the arrogant elitist and snobbish liberal left would never do. Not to mention Ed Miliband is unelectable and utterly useless. I don't vote Tory and used to be a labour voter but I was pleased at what Cameron did and I won't vote labour with Miliband in charge.

Fergus Pickering's picture

Sorry, Gracie. What is Labour's approach to sorting out the defict? Borrowing lots of money, is that the one? Tell me, who lends us the money? We issue Government bonds perhaps. And who buys thesebonds? At what rate of interest? 7%? Less? Who from again? Boring technical stuff?

Mizar's picture

The electors are being attacked in almost every way by this goverment. Living standards driven down, poverty looming or made worse for millions, escalating personal debt. Time to vote Tory ... er, no.

PikeyMikey's picture

Ed Miliband's reluctance to say what action he would have taken last week hasn't help him or the party.

mike cobley's picture

Comes down a woeful chasm in reporting the substance of the eurozone treaty update proposals, and what they mean. Almost all the media are to blame, having reduced complex positions to an American-style personality face-off. When you have dumbed-down news, you get dumbed-down voter opinions.

As for the eurohaters, ya gotta laugh - guess where 40% of our exports go to, pinheads? Thats right, Europe!

David's picture

The problem with trying to interpret trends from opinion polls is that the same sample of people are not polled every time, so each individual poll is assumed to be representative of the population as a whole. Be very careful about making assumptions in terms of 'Eurosceptics turning Tory' or whatever. Opinion polls are only based on an infinitesimal percentage of the electorate and must be treated with caution.

I do understand, however, that they give hacks something about which to write screeds of nonsense.

matthew fox's picture

What a complete waste of webspace, the rantings of Luddite.

Please Luddite, get over Trafalgar, Waterloo and Agincourt.

I remember the Right attacking France over Iraq, calling them Surrender Monkeys.

Luddite manages to upset every sane rational person under the sun. If he isn't swearing at Prof Blanchflower, our resident genius goes spouting off about his life, and what he can and can't do with his money.

I wish Luddite took time to understand jobs in the UK financial services are being shed as we speak, on top of Retail, Manufacturing and the wider Service Sector.

Luddite's motto " Ignorance is Bliss "

Neville Peters's picture

It's nothing but a brief bounce. As soon as the next bit of bad economic news hits it will be back to a Labour lead of four or six points. The fact remains that a hung parliament will be the most likely outcome of any general election within the next four years at least. And when that election happens - and the outcome of it - depends on when and if the Lib Dems discover their balls.

Annoyed Labour Supporter's picture

It's very confusing to see labour supporters (I am also one) trying to work out week after week how they are not ahead of such a horrible government.

It is confusing because it is obvious apart from the fact everyone has their heads in the sand. Ed Milliband is useless. The worst political party leader EVER. And we also have to face it the debt culture of labour was such a disaster. It annoys me when fellow supporters try and say that is old news (which the Tories are using to disguise their failings). It is not old news - it is very real and very present.

I walker's picture

"Veni, vidi, veto", but unfortunately for Cameron he didn't conquer anything. He went, he saw, they ignored him.

Luddite's picture

You can't keep borrowing your way out of debt and neither can you keep spending your way out of trouble.

Hello 1% Trafalgar, Waterloo and Agincourt. It's a good-job the likes of you weren't there Matthew Fox you'd-of-shit-yourself.

matthew fox's picture

Luddite, I keep telling you, being in the Brownies doesn't count as service in the armed forces.

I appreciate you like wearing military uniforms, but thats more to do with you being in various Village People tribute bands.

They want you, they want you, they want to as a new recruit Luddite.

Adam's picture

Translation: You know those dozens of blogs and articles the New Statesman published saying that Europe wasn't important to voters? We were totally wrong.

In retrospect, there were some clues. For example, did you know that there is a single-issue party based solely around removing the UK from the EU? And they have been polling at 7-8%?

I suppose sometimes these things are just staring you in the face, but you refuse to see them because you so badly want to live in a post-nationalist, post-ethnic, universalist world that you would give up anything - including national sovereignty, basic democratic principles and economic stability - to get there.

Gracie's picture

This is a one issue poll lead of 2 points, it is hardly "surging past labour" and I suspect on today's news about a 17 year high "surge" in unemployment, the polls are very likely to reverse "surge". One issue poll leads like the temporary one that happened during the fuel demonstrations are rarely permanent.

The Tories should make the most of this, people are in a festive mood in the run up to Christmas, let's see what happens after Christmas when reality strikes, bills start falling on the mat and the record hike in utility bills fall with them. More unemployment and an almost certain double dip recession caused by the Tories insane austerity measures.

If you are interested in poll results you may want to read the one that reports that most people think that Labour's approach to sorting out the deficit is the best way forward.

Luddite's picture

Matthew: What's your obsession with the village people are you gay? Or is that just your boyfriend. Look here 1% let's never forget which totally economically discredited government put our armed forces in harm’s way.

thinkov's picture

fuck off luddite

Stuart Eels's picture

You've hit on the head there Adam and the amazing thing is that when you try and point it out to them they call you a right wing troll!

It seems that the ruling elite in both Westminster and Europe just won't listen to the people. The world is telling Europe to sort out the Euro now and there they are arranging a meeting about another treaty, you couldn't make it up.

maxinemf's picture

I think the polls reflect the fact that the voters trust neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats. Couple this with the near hysteria of the right wing press, pumped out day after day with slavish notions that Cameron is the new Thatcher, other parties do not stand a chance. Poor EM, he is in a lose, lose situation. Instead of going for the big policy ideas, the LP should concentrate on developing the right opposition responses to the idiotic policies which this government is determined to push through. Winning the argument on a case by case basis is the best way to go. Is it not rather ironic that the LD's were preapred to abstain en masse on the Euro Question, but to push through the student fees rises without so much a wimper. Cameron need not fear because when push comes to shove, Brits are not true revolutionaries and prefer armchair pontification to mass protests on the street. The phrase that people get the government they deserve is entirely apt.

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