Relief for Miliband as Labour wins by-election

Labour holds onto Feltham and Heston seat -- but was the 8.5 per cent swing from the Tories enough?

Ed Miliband will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning, with the news that Labour has held on to the west London seat of Feltham and Heston in a by-election. Candidate Seema Malhotra increased Labour's majority from 4,658 to 6,203, a swing of 8.56 per cent from the Tories.

The seat was Labour's to lose after the death of Alan Keen, who won the seat from the Tories in 1992, meant that a speedy by-election was called, with time only for a short campaign.

The victory should - at least temporarily - shore up Miliband's leadership. Labour says that the results are a verdict on the failure of the coalition government to tackle unemployment and stabilise the economy.

However, it is likely that naysayers within the party will say that the swing should have been greater, as Labour's poll lead remains static and narrow. Predictably, the other parties have already downplayed the success. Alok Sharma, Conservative MP for Reading West, said that if Labour was doing well, it would have got a swing of 15-18 per cent. Sour grapes, perhaps, but it is certainly true that a loss would have been dire for Labour given the current economic situation.

Labour are not the only ones who averted disaster: Nick Clegg will also be relieved that his party did not lose out to Ukip. It had been speculated, based on the polls, that Nigel Farage's party could overtake the Liberal Democrats. But the Lib Dems just about managed to see off this threat, finishing in third place (after the Tories), with 6 per cent of the vote -- just 88 votes ahead of Ukip. The party avoided embarrassment this time, but the tiny gap portends the electoral wipe-out the Lib Dems could face in the next general election.

It's also worth noting the low turnout. At just 28.8 per cent (23,298 votes), this was the worst turnout in a by-election for 11 years.

Finally, the headline figures in full: Labour received 12,639 votes (54 per cent), followed by the Tories on 6,436 (28 per cent), the Lib Dems on 1,364 (6 per cent), and Ukip on 1,276 (5 per cent).

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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The Fire Brigades Union reaffiliates to Labour - what does it mean?

Any union rejoining Labour will be welcomed by most in the party - but the impact on the party's internal politics will be smaller than you think.

The Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has voted to reaffiliate to the Labour party, in what is seen as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn. What does it mean for Labour’s internal politics?

Firstly, technically, the FBU has never affliated before as they are notionally part of the civil service - however, following the firefighters' strike in 2004, they decisively broke with Labour.

The main impact will be felt on the floor of Labour party conference. Although the FBU’s membership – at around 38,000 – is too small to have a material effect on the outcome of votes themselves, it will change the tenor of the motions put before party conference.

The FBU’s leadership is not only to the left of most unions in the Trades Union Congress (TUC), it is more inclined to bring motions relating to foreign affairs than other unions with similar politics (it is more internationalist in focus than, say, the PCS, another union that may affiliate due to Corbyn’s leadership). Motions on Israel/Palestine, the nuclear deterrent, and other issues, will find more support from FBU delegates than it has from other affiliated trade unions.

In terms of the balance of power between the affiliated unions themselves, the FBU’s re-entry into Labour politics is unlikely to be much of a gamechanger. Trade union positions, elected by trade union delegates at conference, are unlikely to be moved leftwards by the reaffiliation of the FBU. Unite, the GMB, Unison and Usdaw are all large enough to all-but-guarantee themselves a seat around the NEC. Community, a small centrist union, has already lost its place on the NEC in favour of the bakers’ union, which is more aligned to Tom Watson than Jeremy Corbyn.

Matt Wrack, the FBU’s General Secretary, will be a genuine ally to Corbyn and John McDonnell. Len McCluskey and Dave Prentis were both bounced into endorsing Corbyn by their executives and did so less than wholeheartedly. Tim Roache, the newly-elected General Secretary of the GMB, has publicly supported Corbyn but is seen as a more moderate voice at the TUC. Only Dave Ward of the Communication Workers’ Union, who lent staff and resources to both Corbyn’s campaign team and to the parliamentary staff of Corbyn and McDonnell, is truly on side.

The impact of reaffiliation may be felt more keenly in local parties. The FBU’s membership looks small in real terms compared Unite and Unison have memberships of over a million, while the GMB and Usdaw are around the half-a-million mark, but is much more impressive when you consider that there are just 48,000 firefighters in Britain. This may make them more likely to participate in internal elections than other affiliated trade unionists, just 60,000 of whom voted in the Labour leadership election in 2015. However, it is worth noting that it is statistically unlikely most firefighters are Corbynites - those that are will mostly have already joined themselves. The affiliation, while a morale boost for many in the Labour party, is unlikely to prove as significant to the direction of the party as the outcome of Unison’s general secretary election or the struggle for power at the top of Unite in 2018. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.