Relief for Miliband as Labour wins by-election
Labour holds onto Feltham and Heston seat -- but was the 8.5 per cent swing from the Tories enough?
By Samira Shackle Published 16 December 2011 10:37
Ed Miliband will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning, with the news that Labour has held on to the west London seat of Feltham and Heston in a by-election. Candidate Seema Malhotra increased Labour's majority from 4,658 to 6,203, a swing of 8.56 per cent from the Tories.
The seat was Labour's to lose after the death of Alan Keen, who won the seat from the Tories in 1992, meant that a speedy by-election was called, with time only for a short campaign.
The victory should - at least temporarily - shore up Miliband's leadership. Labour says that the results are a verdict on the failure of the coalition government to tackle unemployment and stabilise the economy.
However, it is likely that naysayers within the party will say that the swing should have been greater, as Labour's poll lead remains static and narrow. Predictably, the other parties have already downplayed the success. Alok Sharma, Conservative MP for Reading West, said that if Labour was doing well, it would have got a swing of 15-18 per cent. Sour grapes, perhaps, but it is certainly true that a loss would have been dire for Labour given the current economic situation.
Labour are not the only ones who averted disaster: Nick Clegg will also be relieved that his party did not lose out to Ukip. It had been speculated, based on the polls, that Nigel Farage's party could overtake the Liberal Democrats. But the Lib Dems just about managed to see off this threat, finishing in third place (after the Tories), with 6 per cent of the vote -- just 88 votes ahead of Ukip. The party avoided embarrassment this time, but the tiny gap portends the electoral wipe-out the Lib Dems could face in the next general election.
It's also worth noting the low turnout. At just 28.8 per cent (23,298 votes), this was the worst turnout in a by-election for 11 years.
Finally, the headline figures in full: Labour received 12,639 votes (54 per cent), followed by the Tories on 6,436 (28 per cent), the Lib Dems on 1,364 (6 per cent), and Ukip on 1,276 (5 per cent).
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82 comments
While Labour held onto one of its safe seats, with the votes of 14% of those eligible to vote in the by-election last week.
The latest opinion poll, on Sky news this morning (Sunday) put's the Tories six points ahead of Labour...
Maybe instead of a new speech writer for Ed Milliband, what Labour needs is a new leader... someone who can speak for the ordinary voter...
Come Luddite, you really need to get out of the prediction business, are you like Bozo555, and forget what you write.
You explicitly wrote that " Working Folk " would never vote for Miliband.
Miliband is now 5 for 5 in by elections, please remember that.
I am correct Luddite, if the country was behind the Government, they would have voted for Cameron, it is simple as that.
Lets remember Luddite, the Tories last held in the 1992, and actually increased their vote by 5.2% in 2010.
They are the facts Luddite, please remember that too.
Debt reduction, what debt reduction has this government achieved?
Fox Hunter, are you disputing that Miliband didn't have a state education?
I take it his education doesn't count because Daddy didn't write a cheque to the school?
Cameron played a blinder when he copied Miliband, and wanted the ECB to sort out the Eurozone Crisis. Weeks before Cameron wanted the IMF to get involved and was told by the Americans to go whistle.
A lot of businesses fail due to the state of the economy, also UK Manufacturing, has stopped marching, remember that old gag.
Oct 11 output fell by 0.7%, and it is also shedding jobs, due to falling domestic demand.
Do you understand the terms
" Shedding" and " Falling "
Be interested in your excuse Fox Hunter, don't let me hound you, tally ho.
@Matt
Foxy, are you a 20th Century Fox? Some of your views are 19th Century.
Did you have a spoilt up bringing - a better than satisfactory school, new clothes, toys at christmas, nice holidays?
Unlike me -- my Labour Party designed and implemented flagship comprehensive got 2 satifactories and 3 unsatisfactories in its Ofstead. Only one kid in its history got to Cambridge. I use to earn money on paper rounds, set up chores for neighbours, saved every penny since I was 8. Bought my first house at 23, rented it out, set up my first business in a bed room in spare time. Tell me foxy, what have you done with your spoilt bringing? Or do you just expect as a birth right kindly municipal milk to feed your every need?
For your information, only 1 in 8 businesses survive to profitability for 10 years. People who make a living with their own business on average do it on their third attempt - its tough and there very few short cuts. The 775 businesses failing is healthy - it frees up resources for more stronger businesses. Those who pick themselves up and keep trying again with their next business will be successful.
"The working class had been attacked with VAT rises". Foxy that is complete tripe. No they didnt. Look across Europe and Denmark in particular and you will find socialist biased states with higher VAT than the UK. Its because VAT is progressive - those who consume most pay most. The state needs to supports lower income people by cutting tax - unlike Labour which got rid of the 10 pence tax and wanted to put up national insurance, the opposite of the Tories. Its shows the Tories have strong British values and Labour is immoral and mutated.
"Labour is Middle Class and Elitist". The fact you dint get it and argue against this says just how little you know about the Labour machinery, its elite, those you see and those behind the scenes who run the party. Take Ed Balls, who will be the leader of Labour at the next election. Do you know which posh school he went to? Do you know the enormous amount of money he is currently raking in from his various consultancies and appointments - he cant do the decent thing like Blair and wait to start exploiting his position for his own greedy gain. Its his greedy selfishness that steers what he does - e.g. he was responsible for fudging the interpretation of the treasury forecasts used by Labour to justify borrowing the £350Bn before 2008.
What you dont get is that Labour is not the party of the working class like it once was - it is a mutuated organisation run with the objective of propelling an small elite into power. The part has no fixed values or strategy - it lurches from one bandwagon to the next trying to win popularity.
Inbrew, still failed to find that article showing Lagarde and the credit rating agencies, criticising public sector pensions.
When do you think your going to publish it. 2013?
Conservatives love hiking VAT up, they even put it on energy bills.
Brown slashed VAT on energy, helping low income families up and down the country.
He also introduced the National Minimum wage, a policy warmly endorsed by Cameron and Osborne, they saw the light.
Don't forget, Child Poverty declined under Labour, it stood at 3.4 Million in 1998.
Labour also funded a NHS, so working folks didn't have to go on a waiting list.
Don't forget Inbrew, the makers aren't marching any more, due to a fall in domestic demand.
I see the ECB has taken Paul Krugman advice and inserted itself into eurozone crisis, I am assuming they had to act after Cameron took his bat and ball home with him.
Over to you Inbrew.
@matt
Foxy, are you having an identity crisis talking so many porkies? I mean I thought it was the little pig who built a straw house to live in.
So, you got one of the figures - £400bn in 1997 - now divide it into the debt when Labour left office and tell me the result.
£400Bn was the entire debt accumulated over the coutry's 1,000 year history after 2 recent world wars plus the reconstruction after WWII.
Labour borrowed and pissed away £350 Bn before 2008 and the backing crisis. No our kids have to pay it back. Worse is Labour's Plan B means doing it all again.
Foxy, best call the firebrigade as I think your house is burning.
Lol Luddite, that temper of yours keeps getting you into heaps of trouble.
Are you that offended, your lashing out blindly, like Audley Harrison, but without the menace.
Guttersnipe describes you to a tee Luddite, your not happy are you old bean.
I bet your work mates would crack ribs if they saw your posts, laughing their heads off at your expense, but then again you must be used to being the source of much amusement.
Are you going to have another crack at being funny Luddite, you might get lucky for once.
@matt
Foxy, is chasing your tail your favorite past time? Its just you seem to do it a lot.
VAT is a progressive tax just as VAT on energy is a green tax - those who consume more, pay more. Its balanced by offsets to payroll tax for lower paid and state benefits. Its the approach that socialist Denmark takes. Yet Labour dropped VAT, got rid of the 10p tax and wanted to raise national insurance -- I remember why, do you? It was because the Labour elite considered the lowest income people did not represent a significant voting inflence -- they were a forgotten cast by Labour.
Labour have no strategy, have lost their values and focus on short term tactics to win votes and power.
You have never disagreed with this.
BTW great news that the deficit is falling signficiantly.
Freeman; your great leader didn't have a fantastic start in life. I suppose not everyone has a dad who wrote a book saying he didn't believe in the Parliamentary road to socialism, but I suppose you can always keep pretending you haven’t voted for a lemon. Every time Ed opens his mouth he put his foot in it. Criminals rioted and Milliband made excusers for them, the French had a tantrum and Milliband backed them. `It’s entirely the banks fault’? No its not!! Its Labour fault because you’re Ed Balls/Brown didn’t regulate the banks, and squandered billions well before the credit crunch came along. But I suppose you and 1% and keep pretending one day Labour will return to inflict more misery on hard-working people.
Inbrew, Brown slashed VAT on gas and electricity bills from an eye watering 17.5% to 5%.
You will find the ONS revised upwards by £1.7 billion borrowing from previous months.
Are you getting desperate, due to the bleak economic news, private sector jobs being shed?
Why don't the Logica job losses count Inbrew.
@matt
Foxy, did you get your paws on a nice chicken for Christmas?
Labour borrowed £350Bn before 2008 and the banking crisis. The money was not invested and our children now have to repay it and pay the accruing interest. The money is gone and was spent propelling the Labour elite into power. They grew the state sector far bigger than the economy could support and left the UK with the worlds biggest structural deficit. At the same time they destroyed private sector jobs by running down UK Industry at its fastest rate since the 1970s (faster than in a recession) - the so called 'no more boom and bust' Labour economic miracle.
Brown slashed VAT for popularity not economic reasons to try to cling to power. He cut the 10p tax which had a major impact on lower paid people far exceeding cutting VAT on fuel -- clever political manipulation.
Denmark has higher VAT than the UK - the example of a model economy supported by David Blanchflower but generally not by Tories. He avoids talking about Denmark VAT because it would conflict with Balls who is pushing a cut of VAT to win votes. Balls wants to shift the tax burden from consumption to employers NI but miscalculated politically as he thought it could be done without people noticing.
We dont know child poverty accruately in the UK - the population of the UK is not know accurately. We gave away control of our borders in the hope he French would be our friends and not be mean to us - unknown millions of immigrants entered the country under Labour which has expanded the economy out side of state monitoring and tax collection.
The decline in domestic demand has helped to balance of payments resulting in a stimulus to the UK economy (according to Mervyn King). Under Labour, domestic demand grew causing imports to grow due to unsustainable personal and government borrowing. Labour's bubble has burst and they have been found out.
BTW, what do you think of Cameron's poll boost following him standing up for Britiain with the veto? Do you think Milibandwagon would have signed anything to have a story to spin? The polls show people think so.
"Debt reduction, what debt reduction has this government achieved"? So Matthew where do you think we should cut more? Look here 1% most are just happy Labour's no longer fucking-up their lives.
The balance of payments lol haha hee
The UK’s current account deficit was £15.2 billion in the third quarter of 2011, the highest on record.
The trade deficit widened to £9.9 billion in the third quarter of 2011, up from £7.2 billion the previous quarter.
Inbrew, why are you that stupid, you fail to research before writing.
Just explain your rationale again, i love a good laugh.
What relief, they where nailed to win the by-election, he is five for five.
Luddite talked about " Working Folks " not turning out for Miliband, looks like he needs to get out of the prediction game.
A churlish Tory MP, really, another example of losing badly, bad winners sore losers.
If the country was doing well, the Tories would have taken this seat, it is a simple as that.
An excellent result - credit is due to the candidate and her team. Increasing the majority in spite of a dire turnout is a significant achievement.
The swing to Labour also sets us up nicely for next year's mayoral election and the return of Ken to City Hall.
@matt
Foxy, have you been at the windfall again, afterall it is Christmas? But watch those fermenting ones as they stew your perception.
Err, which beating am I taking? All European countries siginging up to the treaty which Cameron veto'd are shredding Plan B. We are the only major EU economy where Brussels will not legally control fiscal policy - left wing borrow and spend. And we will have access to the decision making of the the treaty members. A canny win from Britian.
Yet Miliband tried to create a bandwagon by making an inept play on national television that he would have signed the treaty without the British opt outs. Firstly, its irrational because Labour is nothing without borrow and spend. Secondly, the opinion polls show it damaged his reputation as people perceive him as a weak sign anything/ given anything away ineffectual leader. He has shown he would give way to pressure from the French when he thinks his personal popularity might be hurt rather than putting the national interest first. The opposite of Cameron. Milibandwagons short term opportunism rather than sticking to a clear strategy and values mean people think he is anchorless.
So the only beatings there are, are the one Milibandwagon has been getting in popularity polls and from the party for his leadership performance.
BTW why did Milibandwagon not make his play on the veto BEFORE the treaty summit - he could have set out his clear criteria of what he would have done faced with the same circumstances as Cameron. Instead, he waited until after the event before criticising just like a back seat driver.
@matt
Foxy, do you generally look no further than the end of your nose?
The government is borrowing to fund the unsustainable state sector but it is leaking out of the economy through imports. Labour's Plan B is to borrow more money, grow the state and have more imports.
Labour decimated UK industry - it declined under the last government's borrowing driven boom at a faster rate than since the 1970. We are left with a depleted industry facing a external economic slowdown.
The solution is to cut the deficit, improve the competiveness of people, allow the currency to devalue, support the funding of sucessful smaller businesses, cut red tape, shift the tax burden onto domestic consumption away from supply. i.e. what the coalition are doing and the opposite of what the last government did and Labour want to do. Over the long term it will fix the mess left by Labour.
Labours Plan B is about willing popular votes to propel Balls to power. Its not about the UK national interest. But you care more about your dear Labour winning power than the national interest.
Now now Luddite, don't go over to the darkside you simpleton.
Have you got around to reading mark twain#s quotes, that way you wont look as stupid when you try to use the words he has written.
Farewell Tom Luddite.
Foxy, you did not give your view on the polls showing strong support for Cameron using the veto and the negative impression people have of Milibandwagon lacking the same courage of conviction.
Which subject, the balance of payments fiasco, the Cameron IMF/ECB?
Take your pick you silly sausage?
When Luddite talks about hard working people, does he forgets that taxes have been raised on them by Osborne, who as an encore frozen their working tax credits.
I wonder if Luddite is talking about those women who have had to give up work due to the government cutting the childcare working tax credit.
Ed Miliband's dad served in the Royal Navy for 3 years in WW2 and drove a bus, the same sort of bus used to drive Luddite terrible arguments.
Luddite has inflicted more misery on humanity, then Gaddafi, Bin Laden, Hussein combined.
I bet Ed Miliband can quote Mark Twain, word for word, unlike Luddite.
Well done to Ed. Great result but more work to be done...
Relief for the Tories...
Red 'stupid boy' Ed must think himself and Liebore to be invincible !... four Liebore by-election wins in four Liebore seats !
Don't you understand the terms " Record " Inastew?
I see the facts don't go along with your narrative, is that why your floundering.
The makers aren't marching, they are too busy shedding sweet sweet private sector jobs.
Better luck next time Inastew.
It may be a low turnout but 23,000 votes is 23 times bigger than most opinion polls. An 8% swing to Labour and the papers still try to paint it as a bad result for Mili. What would they have said if the swing had been to the Tories?
We're not even 2 years into this government's reign. Another 2 years and things can only get worse for the Tories.
Perhaps Cameron will contrive to lose Gibraltar and then get it back. He'll need to do something like that to get reelected.
Ed Miliband's dad ... drove a bus.
No doubt one which is open at the back to jump on. Its where EM learned to jump on bandwagons.
@matt
Foxy, have you stocked up with enough straw to keep you going through the winter?
Foxy, have you been listening to the script of your friends again?
Logica have significant government contracts that have been deferred or cut. The redundancies are largely high paid consultants and mangers who were state funded - i.e. its a deficit reduction.
The headline is that the deficit is being reduced. Its a fact.
Why didnt Brown give support for lower paid people (like the 10p tax and state fuel benefits) instead of cutting VAT? Was it something to do with trying to pls and win votes from the middle and most wealthy who consume a lot more energy than the least well off? Perhaps he could not careless about the least well off because he assessed their votes dont make a difference to the outcome of elections?
I'm criticising Brown for cutting VAT on domestic fuel as it was synical move against the least well off.
Steve - more likely he will lose the Falklands... and he has a snowballs chance in hell of getting them back. I seriously doubt that the French will lend us any aircraft carriers.
One in the eye for the tory press and the repellant trolls who inhabit NS blogs - you know who they are. And good result for Labour. Well done!
Straw, the ones you use to drink Inbrew, why am I have a party?
Logica, are you telling me private companies are taking money from the State Fairy?
The fact the deficit is coming down due to higher VAT revenues says it all Inbrew, Conservatives love raising taxes.
Brown actually introduced Working Tax credits Inbrew, helping the working poor.
I remember John Redwood feeling Income Support as taxpayer vehicle to support badly paid workers, he preferred to let businesses to pay people poorly.
That is correct Inbrew, the Right Wing want government to pay money to people who work because they feel the private don't too.
I suppose people who have their tax credits frozen feel so support by Cameron and Clegg, I mean being £200 worse off in an incentive.
Brown supported the low paid by introducing the National Minimum wage, a policy voted against on mass by the Conservative party.
With 4 million people suffering fuel poverty, 20% VAT on energy bills is about the most stupid idea you have come up with, and that is saying something.
So you criticising Brown for subjecting the least well off to lower bills, yes you just wrote then Inbrew.
A commednable result.
Robert Taggart, grow up.
@Lady J
Given Seema was recommended by Hattie I assume she has good ventrilo skills (can speak out of both sides of mouth at same time).
We should not forget the very low turn out in a Labour seat and no evidence of a backlash against the government. It proves there is strong contentment for the coalition which is what I am hearing from insiders.
1% Labour's much championed National minimum wage was a disaster for the low-paid. If you give an employer a legal minimum requirement many unscrupulous employer’s will simply pay that amount, many companies sacked whole work-forces only to re-employ them back at the legal minimum requirement. Millions of low- paid and semi-skilled workers found this to their cost, and when you add Labour’s disastrous open-door immigration policy wages of the un-skilled and semi-skilled fell, but we can always keep pretending everything was rosy in Labour’s wonderful socialist utopia. By the way 1% many are suffering fuel poverty because of Labour's enforced green tax, which the Tories and their Liberals friends are still pursuing, scrap these taxes and bills will fall.
This is a 'shoo-in'. Ed just needs to keep sucker punching the PM and draw him out into the limelight of public opinion.
The Cain and Able syndrome will be used as a universal nostrum by the Tories and the Media ad infinitum.
Talking about relationships - how about matricide?
Kenny(Killer Whale) Clarke and Frankie 'The Finger' Maude showed Mrs Thatcher the door and made her cry. These same boors are now in Cameron's government.
What hard-necks. And Cameron fits the bill - hypocrite!
Politically Correct
Who cancelled your bender Luddite, did the police escort you back to the cage?
No Luddite, the minimum wage hasn't been a disaster for the low paid. If it is was, Cameron wouldn't have changed the Tory line and supported it.
In 2005 Cameron described the NMW as a success story, and you as a tragic accident, that blights the whole of hunamity.
In 2008 Osborne, described the NMW as fair.
Are you having a laugh Luddite, Fuel Poverty a fault of Labour, and I take it you have evidence to back this up Luddite?
Look up evidence in the dictionary, it comes before Falsehoods, Fantasy, Lies and after Balderdash.
Remind me the last time you did a in-depth research of the UK Energy market.
I hope Mrs Luddite is well, and thank her for the nice Christmas text.
I remember the lies told when they abolished the Wages Councils, mi
@matt
Foxy, was readig Aesop and wondered if your skulk had ever spun a story to someone, saying whatever was necessary to flatter them, in order to steal their meal?
Before 2008 and the banking crisis, people ahd not forgotten Labour borrowed and spent £350Bn but did not invest it. They created the enormous structural deficit. Labour held on to power through spin which is one reason people do not trust the party.
1% Labour were useless in government the first few year's weren't that bad, but the rest, mass-immigration, foreign wars, dysfunctional government departments not fit for purpose. Labour's tax raid on the working poor. Labour politicians didn't help anyone, but themselves how many ended-up in prison? How much money did Labour squander on eduction only to see standards fall? You really do need to take-off them rose-tinted spectacles and take-in a long controlled in-take of breath and calm down. Marry Christmas.
Luddite writes, 'Freeman; your great leader didn't have a fantastic start in life.'
Don't run away with the idea that anyone who disagrees with the tripe you write is automatically a Miliband or Labour supporter. Some of us are still socialists, a concept banned by Labour many years ago.
The second most important by-election last night was not far away in Coombe Vale, Kingston.
Labour +7.0%
Liberal Democrat -9.8%
Conservative +0.1%
Green Party +1.2%
CPA +0.2%
UKIP +1.2%
Bad news for the Liberal Democrats who hoped to win the two seats.
Inbrew, you forget, Ed Miliband was ahead of the story when it came to Phone Hacking/Eurozone ECB.
The expression " A dollar and a day late " springs to mind with Cameron.
I see you have no answer to my argument Luddite, your brillant at getting things wrong at you Luddite, it is a gift.
I dont you will be bring up the national minimum wage again lol.
Jonathan Aitken, Jeffery Archer, Lord Taylor, the list is endless.
I can't Marry Christmas Luddite, in the same way you can't give up swearing.
Don't forget to give my regards to Mrs Luddite, what a wonderful human being.
Robert "stupid boy" Taggart needs to remember that, since this is a seat the Conservatives need to win to get an overall majority, an increased Labour majority is a real blow to Cameron, especially after a populist onslaught in the media over the EU.
"you forget, Ed Miliband was ahead of the story when it came to Phone Hacking/Eurozone ECB"
Wrong. Miliband knew about phone hacking as an issue long before we heard he thought it was an issue to be looked at. It was not Miliband that got the bandwagon rolling, he just jumped on it after the event.
Whats Miliband's view on using the veto? Funny how he tried to opportunitically exploit it but made a disasterous play on it AFTER it was used.
Its such a pity because Labour use to stand for something. Now its just a reactionary party focussed on propelling the elite to power. The party has lost its values and does not have a strategy other than borrow and spend.
Discuss ...
(your answer is but the Tories... )
Come on Inbrew, credit were credit due, your a great storyteller.
UK Manufacturing shedding jobs, Unemployment at a 17 year high.
Mrs T and Major taxed borrowed and spent, like there was no tomorrow.
Please tell me where the £350 Billion North Sea Oil revenue and the £50 Billion of state sales went Inbrew, that will make for a gripping yarn, you nutcase.
A good result. If labour had lost that would have probably been the beginning of the end for Ed.
@matt
Foxy, did you get a cook book for Christmas? So you can ogle the pictures and dream of chicken stew.
A record is a 2 dimensional disc with the same old tune that wears thin. In your case its a 1970's record which is scratched and stuck. You need to get your friends to give you a new one.
So why is Milibandwagon polling so badly?
Inastew, your sounding more bitter then usual, can't you take a beating with more grace?
@Peter
Yes you are correct. On what you say about wages and on Foxy talking drible.
The minimum wage means hundreds of thousands of British people are excluded from the job market because cheap Poles, paid cash in hand no tax, back fill the jobs. It increases the surplus of British people on the labor market which brings down rates of jobs above the minimum wage.
But the fundamental problem is not the minimum wage but the high level of tax burden on low paid people. The solution is
- keep national insurance low (Labour want to put it up which makes legitimate workers more expensive to employ)
- keep PAYE low so that they can have the same net pay at lower cost to the employer (Gordon scrapped the 10p tax taking jobs away from British people. He gave the tax to the bankers. Its because he calculated that was best to propel him to power)
- raise the personal allowance to take people out of the tax system altogether (Labour have fought against the coalition's plans for this)
The state needs to redistribute wealth from rich to poor. It can follow Denmarks example of higher VAT to penalise imports/ bias in favor of exporters with compensating state support for the poorest. The money raised can be used for business taxes like lower corporation tax to encourage inward investment.
Matthew fox reply too what? Your incoherent comment that's at best difficult to decipher at worst a nonsensical jumble of words. I'm sorry. I don't do gibberish!!
Freeman; don’t give me that crap; it’s always the same old tired argument when Socialism fails. It wasn't a Socialist government, or it wasn't Socialist enough. Your now totally economically discredited Socialist government squandered billions on building your Socialist utopia. Destroying the life opportunities of millions of our young people, with your left-wing believe in open borders your trendy left-wing ideas on education that drove-down standards across all subjects, and come-on” Ed Milliband isn't a Marxist”? Freeman; your now totally economically discredited previous Socialist government couldn't of being more Socialist. In practice, socialism didn't work. Socialism could never have worked because it is based on false premises about human psychology and economies, and a dangerous ignorance of human society. Just take a look at North Korea. Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
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