How to read the Tory poll lead
Cameron's party on top in this morning's Sunday Telegraph/ICM survey.
By Jon Bernstein Published 04 December 2011 11:01
A seemingly remarkable opinion poll in today's Sunday Telegraph that shows a Tory lead over Labour of two points -- after a week of economic gloom -- prompts Political Betting to ask:
Is it so bad that voters want to stick with nurse?
Whichever way you look at the ICM numbers -- Conservatives 38 per cent (+2), Labour 36 per cent (-2), Lib Dems 14 per cent (no change), Others 12 per cent -- they do not make happy reading for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party.
Yet, as always, outliers such as these should be treated with caution. After all, a weekly YouGov poll, published by the Sunday Times, shows an eight point lead for Labour -- Conservatives 35 per cent, Labour 43 per cent, Lib Dems 9 per cent, Others 13 per cent.
So what's going on? Over at UK Polling Report, Anthony Wells notes:
Whenever a poll shows an unusual result I offer the same caveat - sure, it could be the start of some new trend, but more often than not it turns out to be a blip caused by normal sample error. Pollsters' different methodologies have impacts upon their topline figures, and ICM tends to show some of the most positive figures for the Conservatives
Equally, YouGov tends to record some of the highest numbers for Labour. So until other polls show what ICM shows today, it's more realistic to conclude that Miliband's party still enjoys a small lead.
But before we dismiss today's numbers and move on, it's worth making a couple of points -- and neither reflects particularly well on Labour.
The first is that Labour's poll lead (if that is what it continues to be) has hardly shifted from where it was last December. Indeed its percentage share -- and that of the Conservatives -- has declined slightly. That decline is explained by the rise of the "Others" -- where once the Liberal Democrats as the "third party" would pick up the protest vote, it is now going elsewhere.
Labour is failing to pick up the protest vote because it is still blamed, at least in part, for the economic situation. It must hope that, as the parliamentary session progresses, the blame shifts from red to blue.
The second thing to acknowledge is that the unions made a tactical error last week -- an error not of intention but of timing -- and that may be reflected in the ICM numbers. As one shadow cabinet minister described it to my colleague Rafael Behr, the decision to strike less than 24 hours after George Osborne's Autumn statement was "a source of frustration". Privately, the language was doubtless far stronger. As Rafael notes in this week's Politics Column:
Miliband would gladly have let the news of [George] Osborne's economic woes reverberate through the week. Instead, the focus shifted to an issue that risks discomfort for the Labour leader, given his party's financial reliance on trade unions.
It was not to be and David Cameron and Osborne escaped from a potentially tricky week unscathed.
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36 comments
Incredible. Labour should be streets ahead. Perhaps this is the final nail in the coffin and Ed should graciously step down and let Darling takeover as interim leader until Sept 2012, and the Olympics are ou of the way.
Ed Miliband should have supported the public sector strike. He is avoiding being labelled 'Red Ed' by the Condems! He must show more back bone.
How on God's beautiful earth are Lib Dems on 14%?
You can't knock polls if you don't like the result, but it seems out of line with the average.
With over 50% support for the public sector workers, Not Red Ed should have supported the strike. He would not have gained support from potential Tory voters but he might have begun to waken the millions of disillusioned working class voters who have deserted Labour for a no vote or worse a vote for the parties of the far right.
Marvellous polls!!!
We are faced by onslaught after onslaught: massive national debt, huge waisted borrowing before 2008, enormous structural deficit, UK Industry run down by the last government, Euro collapsing, crackpot opposition who want to borrow vast amounts in a giveaway of voter treats to win power.
People feel Blitzed and seek strength, depth and stability.
@Matt
Foxy, no need to ask where you put your paw print (against the one with the nicest picture).
"How on God's beautiful earth are Lib Dems on 14%?"
Sounds like the coalition are strong, stable and have depth when the Libdems and Tories are combined.
It mustn't be forgotten that ICM counts 50% of the Don't Knows as positive support for a party on the basis of what the person voted at the last election. Statistically speaking this is misleading as it does not provide an accurate reflection of the percentage of floating voters.
Labour is not my Party, but having seen my own saddled with a leader who was never in a million years going to become Prime Minister of this country, Iain Duncan Smith, I can tell you with full authority that Ed Miliband fits into this category very comfortably indeed.
For Kenneth Clarke read David Miliband. Very silly.
I think that the fact that Labour is seen as complicit in the increased wealth gap is another factor that holds them back - possibly as much as whether or not they 'can be trusted with the economy'
Hi guys,
Remember New Labour offers more than poll ratings. New Labour was about Education, Education and Education.
These 'sons of Brown' have no idea and I such to all believers in New Labour should back David Miliband.
I must point out to New Labour Believers that New Labour will be offering wisdom and knowledge in our New Labour Ministry.
London Calling - you cant be more wrong!
UK voters support for the right/centre-right (Cons and Lib Dems) has been consistent since the coalition - according to this poll 52% of them back the coalition parties, I may not like these facts, but facts they are nonetheless...
There is literally no chance of Miliband's Labour ever winning an election...the majority of the public back the Lib Dem/Cons coalition, back the austerity plans, and do not back the public sector strikes. This poll could not be clearer.
Its Miliband. He is utterly useless and has to go. No miliband and labour would have a comfortable lead. And Gerry, the public most certainly do not back the austerity pland or the latest budget.Lots of evidence that many of them agree with public sector workers too and are cottoning on to the blatant lies told by the government about pensions. The poll could not be clearer? How come i, and many others, think differently from you? Its about miliband being weak and ineffectual. No Miliband and labour would be way ahead.Not that I necessarily think that would be a good thing but anything at all is preferable to that scumbag osbourne.
A good rule of thumb is to always take the poll you least want to believe as the "truth", the worst case scenario. As EdM and EdB trail behind Cameron and Osbourne in terms of how their economic skills are perceived, this poll is probably quite accurate.
With EdM at the helm, Labour doesn't have a hope. I cringe when Cameron floors him at PMQs. The Labour party MPs and members didn't vote for Ed, he shouldn't have this job.
I wish this wasn't the case, as he's letting the coalition get away with it all.
It's genuinely amusing how many right wing loonies there are so desperate to react to any article on the NS. They sound like a child desperately seeking the approval of the 'in crowd'.
PhillM
Think I must be watching a different PMQs to you. Cameron almost always comes across very poorly to me, and while you may question Ed Miliband's tactics, he appears to me a far more sincere person. For a politician that is some achievement.
I am afraid that although Ed seems to be a genuinely decent man he is not really a leader. I believe that within 2 years Yvette Cooper will be the leader and people will warm to her especially the women who have been turned off by Coalition machismo politics.
You just can't face the facts when the shit hits the fan the public trust the tories to do the right thing however painful. This is a soft lead just like labour have had, but the fact they're pretty much neck and neck should tell you everything. The public at large are not stupid.
"You just can't face the facts when the shit hits the fan the public trust the tories to do the right thing however painful."
Yea right, because they are doing such a good job of not borrowing and helping the economy grow, and making sure the banking system is safe (well maybe after 2019).
Get real
The Labour party needs to understand Britain has changed.
In reply to whatever - the fact we have interest rates below Germany is an amazing achievement, the deficit is coming down - slower than we'd like but things are improving. The banks are in a healthier state and the private sector has some slack. All we need is for the Eurozone to sort itself out, inflation to fall and confidence will return.
The public spending cuts are absolutely necessary, the left are living in delusion and that's why I say at times of strife people turn to the right as is the case right throughout Europe. Recent example Spain.
It's no coincidence - the tough medicine being enacted would be tougher for left leaning administrations and that's why they always leave a bad legacy because they can't say 'no.' History is a great guide here and modern history shows that people don't like tough medicine but they understand the need for it.
Do you think a tory Gov enjoys putting members of the armed forces on the dole? No of course not, but it's necessary. In 2015 the tories will win, just get used to it.
Vote UKIP !!!!
Strong, Stable and Depth, three words never used to describe you Inbrew.
Dangerous game, to form an opinion on one poll, but then again, your not that particulary bright.
People posting here just want to peddle their own line. Little point in reading the poll, and even less point in reading the comments.
Peter writes, 'The Labour party needs to understand Britain has changed.'
Sorry Peter, you've come to the wrong place - this isn't the Most Meaningless Political Statement of 2011 Competition.
Wow!!, surprise!, shock!, Right wing toiletPapers along with their sheepish Anti Miliband Blairites manufacture a meaningless poll giving the impression that even under the total incompetence of Flashman and Gideon, the Nazty party are still popular?, and Yawn, Yawn, the Labour under Miliband weak routine getting spewed out again!!, 2015, the only poll that counts?, not some cosmetic one made up for cause and effect!, these people seem to forget Incumbents are voted out!, and another 3 years of the Tories Vindictive cuts with the help of their Limp Dem collaborators, will assure Cleggs Yellow bellies will be Obliterated!, and the electorate will be Exhausted with the "What we inherited", and "We`re all in this together" routine coming from Multi millionaires Flashman and Gideon!, so, ask us all in 2015 what we think!, Don`t tell us what to?.
Lets wait until the cuts start to hit the 10 bob Tories and then see.
How were the polls filtered?
By which I mean...how many of those people voting for Lab or Tory would choose them if there was a half credible alternative? You know, honest politicians putting the electorate's wishes ahead of their own careers, did not persist in making bravado statements that no one believes.
I'm not a fan of polls. They tend to reflect whatever those who commissioned them want them to. But I have to say that Milliband is a nonentity. Not impressed.
My guess is that the LP is too centerist for many left-wingers and only very moderate left-wingers now support it. Ed M is a flop which don't help. Imagine if the LDs hadn't taken such a kicking? The figures for the LP would be even worse! This doesn't bode well for social democrats of whatever flava.
Like I've said before, polls are polls, nothing more. I wouldn't trust them until the last minute when they matter.
@fraziel1 - "Lots of evidence that many of them agree with public sector workers too" - do you have any links about this? I certainly didn't vote for the strikes.
@PhilM - "With EdM at the helm, Labour doesn't have a hope. I cringe when Cameron floors him at PMQs." - I think PMQ's are pretty even, Ed has his moments of nit picking some stats to head a surprise surprise show and still we don't see any firm evidence of conviction of their policies, since they haven't got any. One thing that did make me cringe was last week's PMQs where you can see Ed so clearly desperate and eager to ask the next question like a little school boy in his posh uni.
@tuttifrutti - "Ed Miliband's tactics, he appears to me a far more sincere person" - you're joking right? sincere? you must be having a laugh.
@Marco - I agree (with most of it) - the reality here is that the Tories have always stood for businesses and to the much hate from Labour they see this as wealth creation. If businesses do well, they employ people and the rest will gradually come. So you see that the rich will back the Tories and Labour just hate the rich.
Labour on the other hand has always stood for the poor. I'm not saying don't help them but the amount of money Labour handed out in benefits is shocking. It was just so easy for people to claim it and now we see an unsustainable public sector. It needs to be cut, oh but people have been so used to having it year on year that they now suffer. It's no good just borrowing money and throwing it down the drain like Labour has done. Before you say it... Labour had 10 booming years to reform it all... they failed.
@matt
Foxy, do you read to your cubs every night?
"your not that particulary bright"
And you my friend are not very literate.
BTW, I was watching yesterday decent hard working British worker making the trent engines in Derby at that diamond of UK Industry Rolls Royce. It made me geniunely sad at the pointless biggoted destruction of Ford Dagenham Fiesta production by Labour back in 1999. I thought "pls let the Labour elite not be watching this as their lack of support for UK makers induced by political biggotry will try stop Rolls Royce too".
Labour isn't out in the lead because it doesn't offer leadership. It doesn't offer the alternative vision we all need. EdM has been browbeaten into backing the same failed Bliarite (Thatcherite) policies his brother would have supported, so he has made Labour an irrelevance. Just another neoliberal party, which wouldn't be doing anything else in office, just privatising the public services, protecting the City and squeezing the poorest and most vulnerable.
A significant cause of the deficit / debt problems was the onset of the recession - (a) tax receipts plummeted and (b) lots of money was spent propping up the financial services sector. Yes, Labour did spend too much money and were completely hopeless at negotiating contracts with the private sector (PFI probably wouldn't be viewed as negatively if the relevant schools / hospitals / councils had hired decent contract lawyers to ensure the private sector company wasn't fleecing them!); but there also seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with the coalition from both the left (cutting too far, too fast; relatively little action on bankers) and right (not cutting fast enough, not abolishing the 50p tax rate, not getting us out of Europe).
As for Labour now, their cause hasn't been helped by the fact they're still undergoing their policy review, so apart from criticising the coalition seem unable / unwilling to offer any coherent policies of their own. But with the lack of a credible alternative (the Lib Dems used to be until they joined the coalition), voters are probably sticking with Labour in the hope they'll actually think of some credible policies before the next election.
another option could be that there was such widespread coverage of the good things in the autumn statement,before it, that the extra publicity increased support for the tories.
i have noticed, in the past, that when there is a big news stories about a government, that isn't negative, support seems to increase, just because of the extra publicity generated.
I have no idea why, but knowing why is not what's important here.
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