The summit where everyone lost
European leaders are claiming victory, but nothing has been resolved. And Britain is in the worst of
By Benjamin Fox Published 11 December 2011 18:11
What a mess. Although leaders sought, with tedious predictability, to portray themselves as victors, last week's summit in Brussels was one where everybody lost. David Cameron used a veto which did not block anything, and instead relegated Britain to semi-detached EU status. Angela Merkel won a treaty that may never be ratified and with terms that most countries will not be able to keep to. And although the European Central Bank has been handed control over the two EU bail-out funds, and the IMF given an extra €200bn, there is still no "big bazooka' to calm the financial markets. The euro crisis has not been resolved.
British eurosceptics took to the airwaves to celebrate David Cameron's surprising move to veto plans for a very modest - and very conservative - treaty revision. The problem is that a veto implies the ability to stop something, whereas treaty change is going to happen anyway.
But what has Cameron won? The safeguards for the City that he talked about? Nope, even though President Van Rompuy had worked on texts with Cameron's officials before the summit started. It was when Cameron demanded that the UK should be exempted from financial regulation that the problems started. This was always going to be an impossible demand, but Cameron and his officials knew this and had prepared protocols and declarations that, without being guarantees, would have been enough to take back to London. Although Sarkozy initially refused this, Cameron should have been able to win out eventually. Unfortunately, Cameron, already regarded as a diplomatic lightweight by most leaders, over-played his hand, threatened a veto and Sarkozy called his bluff.
It is hard to understand why he chose, as Lord Kerr put it, to "pick up the ball and walk off the pitch before the game started". This was, remember, just a summit. A new treaty was not decided here, only the principals. It would have been quite natural for Cameron to take the deal to the House of Commons in order to establish a clear and detailed mandate for further negotiation.
Cameron has actually done his party and the moderate eurosceptics in his party no good. Although dramatically wielding the veto guaranteed 24 hours of positive coverage from eurosceptics, the reality is that Britain has been left with the worst of all worlds. He didn't win any safeguards - in fact, the City will almost certainly pay a large price as the UK was already struggling to find allies on financial regulation in the Council of Ministers and will now find it even harder -and an unnecessary and politically dangerous, treaty will go through anyway with Britain locked out of the room. Only the Conservatives who actually want Britain to leave the EU should be happy.
Indeed, an "in/out" referendum on our EU membership is now almost inevitable. Conservatives will soon grow frustrated at paying higher costs for fewer of the benefits of membership. If Cameron remains committed to EU membership, this will push more Tories into the arms of Ukip and the BNP.
Friday's BBC Newsnight programme, which treated us to Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott and Bernard Jenkin tearing lumps out of each other, highlighted the new tension that will divide the coalition. Yet amidst Oakeshott's anger and Jenkin's gloating came one revealing admission: Jenkin did not, he said, want Britain to leave the EU. Instead, he saw the summit as the first step towards re-negotiating our terms of membership and repatriating some powers. Jenkin's remarks are representative of most Tory MPs. But he is either disingenuous or stunningly naïve. Any goodwill towards the Conservatives has now evaporated - even though right-wing parties are in power in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. There is only one option facing Britain in the future: stay in or sod off.
There is nothing here for Europhiles to rejoice over either. As the only country not to take the summit deal back to their national parliament, the UK has been firmly established as a semi-detached member of the EU. Having worked hard to win allies and influence following the enmity caused by the Iraq war, Labour and Lib Dem MEPs will now have to cope with the suspicion and anger of their European sister-parties. The notion that Britain is intrinsically anti-European, disruptive and a "wrecker" will be hard to shift. They will also have to cope with a national debate on EU policy that will, even more than before, be divided along in/out lines.
The treaty proposals also demonstrated how toothless the European left currently is. Conservatives are now in power in Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain, and the terms of reference have been dictated by Merkel and, to a lesser extent, Sarkozy. The result is, as Owen Jones remarked, a treaty that locks in austerity for the eurozone. In particular, establishing a 0.5 per cent ceiling for structural deficits is a rule that few countries will be able to adhere to and will make it impossible for countries to pursue expansionary policies in the short or medium term. Europe's economies desperately need to achieve better budgetary discipline, but this is more of a strait-jacket than a life-jacket.
However, it is interesting that both François Hollande, the Socialist candidate for the French Presidency, and Peer Steinbruck, the leader of the German SPD, have both attacked the proposals. Merkel remains a highly embattled Chancellor while Hollande, twenty points ahead of Sarkozy in the polls, is likely to be President within months. If the Merkozy duopoly stays committed to a full treaty change, then ratification will be very bumpy and uncertain.
But while the euro crisis remains unresolved, a new crisis has been created concerning Britain's status in the EU. Cameron has achieved the unique feat of leading his party inexorably towards another disastrous split over Europe while driving a decisive wedge between him and his Lib Dem coalition partners. More importantly, he has ensured that a summit about the future of the euro will instead be remembered as the time when Britain willingly isolated itself for no reward and moved dangerously close to Europe's exit door.
Benjamin Fox is political adviser to the Socialist and Democrat group in the European Parliament
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28 comments
Junk Status Europe to be have lost everything. Prime Minister David Cameron did a marvellous move and we will keep our AAA status.
@Dnaiele
Until we hear what happened last week behind those closed doors, I don't think you can say Cameron is 'out of his depth'! I doubt Ed would have faired any better and those who do think that are deluded. We're talking about a bullying and arse kissing countries who are being uncompromising.
I wouldn't sign anything or go into any deal until I know that the other side is willing, or show any signs of compromising... this isn't a one way street!
"If Cameron remains committed to EU membership, this will push more Tories into the arms of Ukip and the BNP."
Correction: more Tories into UKIP and more Labourites into the BNP. The BNP has no appeal to Tories. They are a national socialist party.
Tories don't like the BNP because they are scum and the Tories dislike them more than foxes!
The Euro summit in Brussels has indeed been a calmity for Britain. The day before the summit, there was a news item on TV which related to the PM Question Time. A Tory back-bencher stood up and urged David Cameron to show some Bulldog Spirit at the conference in Brussels the very next day.
But what exactly is this “Bulldog Spirit”? Perhaps it’s distilled dog’s piss. If so, I can readily imagine going into an off-license and saying : “I’d like a bottle of 15 year old Bulldog Spirit please”. The sales assistant might well reply: “ Sorry sir, we’re clean out of the 15 year old. Would you like the Canine Reserve edition instead?”.
Or perhaps “Bulldog Spirit” isn’t quite that up-market. Maybe it is slang for a cocktail of Cider and Brasso, much favoured by winos around these parts. In fact, come to think of it, I read in the local paper that a wino was arrested in the local park for being drunk and disorderly. When he was brought before the local magistrates he was very contrite, claiming that “Bulldog Spirit” had got the better of him. But when he threatened to veto the court proceedings, the magistrates gave him a stern rebuke, with the result that he looked extremely foolish. Well, if that’s what Bulldog Spirit does to a man, then I want none of it.
And so it came to pass that last Thursday, David Cameron, imbued with the spirit of the British Bulldog went to plead his case in Brussels. But the bulldog did not bark. In fact, the best that it could do was to issue forth a rather timid MEE-EOW and Cameron went away empty handed.
But none of this surprises me in the least. Cameron is a good deal more fond of Claret than he is Bulldog Spirit, so he must have known that this was Mission Impossible. He was basically asked to defend the false patriots of the Square Mile, who claim to represent the national interest, when in fact it is plain to the common man that they are only interested in stuffing their greedy coffers with yet more cash. This put Cameron in an untenable position because it is now crystal clear that the economy is completely out of kilter. As Vince Cable famously put it: “We need more real engineering and less financial engineering”. This implies a rather different agenda than that which was peddled by the Eurosceptics in the run-up to the Brussels summit last week. So my advice to David Cameron is that he should stick to the Claret and leave the Bulldog Spirit well alone, otherwise he will find himself punished in the court of public opinion for his resolute folly.
Strange then, that last Friday I saw a Tory back-bencher on the TV news, boasting triumphantly that David Cameron was full of Bulldog Spirit and that the veto had been wielded in the national interest. Sadly, I can only observe that politicians who are punch-drunk with power seldom make good choices for the well-being of the nation.
How would trade be impacted if the UK actually left the EU? Although I'm not a supporter of this, I wonder whether trade would be significantly impacted at all, as Europe would still remain within our immediate vicinity, and major trade barriers don't really exist anymore either (as Indian and Chinese trade with Europe demonstrates).
Am I wrong?
Mike S
Roland Nelles writing in Spiegel Online "Europe has woken up today rubbing its eyes in disbelief; The European Union as we know it is in the process of disintegrating. The biggest post war project of a continent united in peace failed last night n Brussels, in these times of adversity, Europe is splitting up."
Guidio Westerwelle, the German Foreign Minister admitted the deal was substandard and the reluctance of Britain and OTHERS to play along needn't hinder the other EU states making progess.
Peer Steinbruck of the SDP said Merkel's dithering has left Europe with a choice between "bad solutions." and the Brussels deal was not fit for purpose."
Daniele
Yes sadly Cameron is out of his depth but I'm quite surprised at the feeble attempts by Merkel and her poodle to do anything, anything to re-assure the markets about this feeble euro that was founded on lies.
I wonder what Gordon Brown would have done, I would guess the same.
@M. Wenzl
Trade is trade, business is business at the end of the day... if a market isn't available or too hard to trade in well what do you do?... go and do business elsewhere... afterall good business is where you find it.
The German coup d’état is perfect: not tanks, not weapons & no casualties except for the fact that 26 nations are signing a blank check for "not knowing what is ahead” and greatly jeopardizing their national sovereignty for supranationalism! Small countries will have to submit to the “EU monster” but what’s going to happen to France? As a French citizen I am ashamed at Mr. Sarkosy’s behavior towards Mr. Cameron, but what can you expect from a blind leader such as Mr. Sarkosy adroitly being stage-managed by “Madame Non” Angela Merkel adeptly manipulating everybody and covering up “with France” in order to make the “German made financial medicine” easier to digest! German Supranationalism is marching on and Germany will achieve its geopolitical goal of controlling all the member states of the union with “German order and discipline”! It is not “noblesse oblige” but Euro obliges us! German are reappearing under the cover of the EU smokescreen! 60 years ago we intended Germany to be tamed and disciplined within a revitalized Europe and already 1951 saw the birth of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC)! “Germany and France were the drivers behind the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the precursor to the European Union. The ECSC was the first supranational organisation, established in April 1951 by six European states. It created a common market for coal and steel which it regulated. This set a vital precedent for the steady erosion of national sovereignty, a process that continues today: http://bit.ly/sixQqs , Congratulation to Britain & Mr. Cameron for saying no to Germany! Bravo and I wish the others would not be blind to the fact that they have already sold their national sovereignty to the EU i.e. Germany.
@Stuart Eels
Brown would've signed up! but your point is taken... whoever was in that meeting, be it Cameron, Ed or Clegg would have found themselves in an impossible position. No matter that the outcome would have been the end result would probably be the same, and that is the meltdown and end of the Eurozone.
M. Wenzl:"How would trade be impacted if the UK actually left the EU?"
The honest answer is that nobody knows for sure. It is one of those Rumsfeldian "unknown unknowns".
However, I think that it would depend on three things:
(1) what kind of trading terms the UK could negotiate with the EU after leaving
(2) what happens to the value of the Pound on exit from the EU ( if it declined, our exports would be cheaper but the cost of imports would rise)
(3) the cost of doing business in Europe would likely increase, as we would not enjoy the same privileges in terms of movement of people, resources, etc.
So on balance, i think it would be fair to say that trade would not get any easier for us.
Euro-sceptics would argue that we would have greater freedom to trade outside of the EU. However, this is a deluded viewpoint because the UK is a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), so we still have to abide by the rules:
http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/united_kingdom_e.htm
So leaving the EU would not give us unfettered license to trade on whatever tems we please.
No doubt if we did leave the EU, the petty eurosceptics would then turn their attention to membership of the WTO, arguing that this is tanatmount to a loss of sovereignty. I forsee them demonstrating their Bulldog Spirit by demanding repatriation of powers from the WTO, perhaps even demanding a referendum on Britain's membership of the WTO. And all this done to the background of a rowsing chorus of "Britannia Rules the Waves".
Regarding your assertion that "..major trade barriers don't really exist anymore ..", this is incorrect. If it were true then the WTO would not exist and there would be no need for marathon sessions of trade negotiations, like the so-called Doha round.
Will Sharpley, many thanks for your informative reply.
Regarding major trade barriers not existing, what I mean is that in the context of the EU trade is much freer. India and China enjoy relatively free trade insofar that they don't face any significant tariffs. Canada are currently negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU -- so ultimately, even with the rules the WTO imposes and the trade negotiations that take place, it's reasonable for a Eurosceptic to believe that the impact on our trade would be negligible.
In any event, point 3 seems absolutely crucial.
M Wenzl: One consequence of us leaving the EU (assuming we rejoined EFTA, so we could be part of the wider European Economic Area) would be a loss of sovereignty.
Norway and Switzerland, which Eurosceptics talk about a lot, both have to follow the EU's single market rules for anything they export into the single market, but don't get a say in how those rules are set.
Of course, for domestic trade rather than exports, the UK could lower safety standards or change labelling requirements to furlongs, drams and pennyweights, but since you can't then send those products to the EU without metric markings, why would anyone bother?
I suspect that the real concern of many sceptics on the right is employment law (human rights law is non-EU so we'd still be covered by that). Outside the EU, large swathes of employment and health and safety rules could be changed, naturally the vision being that this would be in the direction of less regulation rather than more.
If we went right down the "no immigrants, no trade" route and pulled out of the EEA as well (allowing us to block immigration from the EU) that's the point at which 1m Brits living and working in the EU get their residency and working rights removed, and shipped off back to England. Bye Costa del Sol, hello Costa Coffee on Widnes High Street.
As I predicted at the beginning of this ridiculous Coalition between an ideologically driven, backward looking Tory party and the opportunist Lib Dems, blood will eventually flow down Whitehall and it won't be ruthless Tory blood you can bet on that!! The Coalition is finished. They said that they are governing in the National Interest yet Cameron clearly did nothing in the National Interest last Thusday evening/Friday morning in Brussels. Dodgy Dave merely acted in his and the Tory Party's interest. Dodger and his mate Boy Georgie are behaving as if they are still at public school or at an Oxford Union debate whereas in fact they are supposed to be engaged in the serious business of running a country. What an utter joke!!They are way out of their depths. They are deluded fools. Labour should call their bluff and demand a Referendum on the EU. This will finish them off.
john henry
I rather think it's you that deluded if news reports coming out of Germany are anything to go by.
"Britain saved Europe from Germany in 1945"
I guess it was at the victory of Dunkirk when the German army kicked the British army's ass into the English Channel.
PMSL.
What reports are those Stuart?
Bruno Gerbarski
You and the French Electorate will get your chance soon enough to show Sarkosy what you think of his deal, do it before its too late.
Buckskins
Go take a walk you halfwit!
Let's be clear to all it may concern.
Britain saved Europe from Germany in 1945
Europe choose Germany over Britain 2011.
Answer to Britains problems unleash the financial records for Europes gravy train. Let's see the results to the expenses of Europes MEP's and their offices.
Then let's see Europe tremble.
For those who care about Britains interest, liberal,socialist, tory or otherwise.
Pay it forward
"Let's be clear to all it may concern."
that's almost never a good start.
"Britain saved Europe from Germany in 1945"
told you so. that is just pure fantasy.
"Europe choose Germany over Britain 2011."
Europe as a single entity does not really exist. that's why we're where we are, do keep up!
the single truism in this whole sorry state of affairs is that there is absolutely no-one on this planet who should kid themselves there can be 'winners' from this disaster. (Nation States that is, rather than financial institutions etc)
for this article to pretend that there is a bleedin' obvious course the UK should have taken is utter nonsense.
Politico: Love it! Very amusing
Seriously though, the article is right. Things are a terrible mess for Britain. Cameron has well and truly messed up. He needs to backtrack but I'm just not sure he could get away with. If he does, he's toast in his own party. If he doesn't, Britain is toast. What a dilemna.....
I think the great tragedy of this is that Nick Clegg had a chance to stop this and failed. It's too late now unless he plans on resigning. He loves his ministerial car too much.
http://representingthemambo.wordpress.com/2011/12/10/the-eu-veto-the-fal...
Benjamin concludes that Britain has 'moved dangerously close to Europe's exit door'. Good!
Outside the EU, we could start to rebuild our industries and invest in energy sources, new technology and education.
'A new treaty was not decided here, only the principals'
'Angela Merkel won a treaty that may never be ratified'
'treaty change is going to happen anyway'.
Reading the above quotes, no wonder Cameron didn't sign up to the hot air of the might be, maybe!
Why are europe and even Ireland so fed up with Britain over this?
Because they can't believe we are leaving the euro disaster zone, while they have to go ahead with it. Otherwise, why would it matter so much to them. Is it because they get more out of it with us in, then without?
Well at least the veto has woken all the euro governments up. Just read the foreign newspapers. Yesterday it was all about cameron. Today they are all pleading to have us back in on their farce. Even on german tv, old Wolfgang, saying we must come back. The irish won't wear the new treaty, but are blaming us for the veto, rather than themselves for staying! Daft.
Sarky may be signing france up to something he won't be elected in to see or be able to do! Let the circus continue. I like watching from the outside looking in.
Also, we are still a member of the euro disater zone. So nothing has changed. It's just that the others are fed up having to tell their voters the truth.
The deal won't go ahead. We will actually be stronger to negotiate if we want, having been proved right.
Mr. 'I dont have a clue', Cameron will do a U-turn but he will try not to make it look like one, propably with Europe's help.
UK will not win an 'IN OR OUT' referendum on the EU, because Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will not vote yes for it.
Labour should stop fearing a referendum and call for it. England alone does not make up the total electorate in the UK.
Lady J, England makes up 85% of the electorate. There are more people living here in Kent than there are in Wales.
Excellent news. The good ship UK has finally left port. Leaving Europe it is destined for the world.
we've never been taken seriously anyway and Labour obliged by signing away more powers which made us weaker not stronger.
Cameron showed he got balls which is more than I can say about Ed and his milliwagon.
At the end of the day this means nothing, we're still in it, the eurozone is still in meltdown. Cameron has won some voters back and we will survive like we have been doing ever since it began.
Other countries signed up to the new pact only because they have no choice! Which ever route they take they will go down so why not go down with the mass? The UK will go down for sure thanks for the massive deficit that Labour has left us.
The best analysis I've read about the situation so far!
The crowing of the Europhobes is deafening at the moment. They will go very quiet in a few months time when the disastrous consequences of Cameron's decision become apparent.
So according to you guys, all the other 26 countries are wrong and Britain is the only one to see the truth, have the bollocks,the bulldog spirit and all that crap, whatever you want to call that stupid move!
Cameron is an upper class twat who was totally out of his depth at that meeting.
Embarrassing!