Who are Standard and Poor's and why should we care?
The credit ratings agency has warned it could downgrade all 15 eurozone countries. Why does this matter?
By Samira Shackle Published 06 December 2011 10:36
The credit ratings agency has warned it could downgrade all 15 eurozone countries. Why does this matter?
If you thought that there wasn't enough pressure on eurozone leaders to resolve the debt crisis, you were wrong. In a surprise move, the credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) has put most of the zone on "credit watch". This means that six countries with top AAA ratings - including Germany and France - now face a 50 per cent chance of seeing their ratings downgraded.
This could pose serious difficulties for Europe. Its rescue fund (the European Financial Stability Facility) relies on France and Germany's AAA status to keep its own top rating. Downgrading these countries could aggravate the debt crisis further by making it more expensive to bail out troubled eurozone countries. The lower the credit rating, the more interest attached to loans in order to attract investors.
We're clear that S&P wields huge power, then; but who exactly are they, and how do these agencies operate?
One of the big three credit ratings agencies (along with Moody's and Fitch), S&P is a US based financial services company that rates a company or country's financial stability. The checks they run on firms, nations or financial products are comparable to the checks a bank runs on you before granting you a credit card.
There is a long history behind them. Poor's started life as a journal in 1860, moved into the ratings business in 1916, and merged with the Standard Agency in 1941. It followed in the footsteps of Moody's, which rated American railroad companies around the turn of the century.
Markets continue to rely on these agencies as the only truly "independent" marker of creditworthiness. Despite this, however, they collect fees from the very companies that they rate, creating a conflict of interest in a system that was clearly shown to be flawed during the 2008 crash. In the New Statesman last year, former financier Alex Preston explained how these agencies operate:
Credit rating agencies opine on the creditworthiness of companies, countries and the complex asset-backed securities whose unravelling kick-started the credit crunch. They score each particular entity using a spectacularly arcane "model" that spits out a rating like an exam grade - anywhere from D (for dunce) to AAA (massive swot). The UK and US governments are rated AAA. So were the vast majority of sub-prime securitisations created during the boom years. Ratings aren't optional - if you want to issue a bond or loan, you need to get a rating. And if the agencies don't like what they see, they hit you with a low (or "junk") rating, meaning that you have to pay an awful lot more to raise money from investors.
In the aftermath of the financial crash, it appeared that ratings agencies were finally coming under serious scrutiny from the regulators, but this has not been realised. Despite the role of these firms in the crash -- they gave mortgage-backed securities the safest ratings possible, fuelling enthusiasm for these risky investments -- they continue to hold an enormous influence over the markets and, indeed, countries' fiscal policy. An announcement such as today's will have a powerful global ripple effect.
A brief look at the last six months demonstrates this. S&P's decision to downgrade the US at the start of August caused turmoil in the financial markets, while in October, a false statement that it had downgraded France caused French bond yields to surge. The French government was so angry that it threatened to ban rating agencies from commenting on France again.
There are moves underway in Europe to regulate the credit ratings agencies more tightly, reducing the power of these big three firms; but for the time being, the markets -- and some of the world's biggest economies -- remain at their mercy.
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75 comments
@ Ian
You truly believe that the private sector performs tasks carried out in the state sector always more effectively???
You can't actually believe that... A most recent example for me. A very close friend was suffering depression. She has seen her GP 4 times, who prescribes anti depressats. mmm Why do they do that- expensive drugs that engender dependency. They eventually accepted there were suicidal thoughts and scheduled a meeting with a psych... 6 weeks later!!
4 meeting at gp with associated paperwork, what's that cost. I reckon with attendant paperwork, 2 blood tests (that I cannot understand why they perform them remotely from doctor then send, the processing alone must be £100 on he blood test), its a grand all day.
And to get put on antidepressants. And have a gp tap their waych in one meeting saying there was a next patient.. er whilst this one was feeling suicidal, a mother of 3.
I took this person to see a private doctor, initial consultaion and test revealed a lack of a certain hormone which the doctor suspected, the change in said person is almost miraculous if u believe in such things. Cost 120£ for the meeting, 40£ for the hormone...
yes public is ALWAYS cheaper... or is that just a dream.
Everywhere there are council jokes about how rubbish the council are at performing even basic tasks, but that's all annecdotal... it's simple though, there is a size above which institutions become inefficient- just a fact why deny it?
@ mike cobley
'There is no place for private sector/market mechanisms in the provision of public services'
really?
er what then are pharmaceutical companies doing sending out eye candy female salespeople selling drugs under patent to the doctora at their hospitals and surgeries?
I thought `Siemens made operating equipment and Phillips made MRI scanners, must be a mistake. The list is endless.
@Hugh Markey.
Totally agree, that scruntiny needs to be from a seperate entity.
Credit rating agencies had a use years ago, now they are entities who seem to be driving political policy.
What has most of the comments on here got to do with Standard and Poor? Nothing! You should all go away and set up your own blog.
In reality, they don't matter. Most business news pundits just laugh at them. This leads to the next question. If they're such rubbish, then why do people pay them millions every year?
(track record) Let's not go there 1%. I may after start talking about your previous economically discredited Labour government's appalling track record!!
Awake, maybe my sarcasm did not come across in my answer, I do not believe that either side has the monopoly on excellence or waste... I merely state that the idea of pure ,not operating profits lies in the private sector, so on a level playing field equal wages etc, public sector should be the cheaper option.
Rating agencies? one of the most bizarre creations of the financial services industries.
There you have three US companies scaring the shit out of most governments.
I am not sure whether the Chinese government gives a stuff.
Who are these companies accountable to? Their shareholders no doubt but no one else.
Since they stuffed up before the GFC and during it, why does anyone take any notice of it.
Most people or consultants if they stuff up big time they get the sack. What about rating agencies, they are consultants.
Who pays for their services??
Surely they weren't paid for their bad advice as discovered during the GFC.
Where is reason and logic in all of this.
IMO their power is beyond reason.
How do you like those apples Eurozone(!)
You went there Luddite, and looked stupid yet again, your feet must be seriously deformed, if your not shooting them, there in your horrible mouth.
Your thoughts are appalling and worthless Luddite, like the CDO's, please remember that.
You do talk Luddite, but have nothing to say.
S&P and all other ratings agencies just give an opinion. It's been proved that this opinion is sometimes disastrously wrong. For some reason their pontifications on the state of nations is given great weight. Given that they have proved so disastrously wrong in the not so recent past I don't know why anyone gives a fig about what they have to say.
To all the private good, public bad arguments the IMF completed a study that showed that in most cases austerity measures meant that for every £1 saved by cuts about £0.70 was lost from GDP.
When you remove demand in a recession the private sector contracts. We don't have a problem with supply of goods. What we have is a lack of demand to buy those goods which leads to a lack of growth and to preserve profits companies shed jobs. That's why there are now more people unemployed than there were before the cuts started.
Living in a country with a firmly regulated financial services industry,
The outfall from the current crisis is not causing panic so far.
Perhaps our govt debt is not of US or European proportions.
I wished I could say that of private sector debt.
What a lot of people in Europe and the US find hard to accept is that the decades of living of credit have come to an end.
Living within one's means is the key to overcoming it.
It involves pain and no one wants to experience or endure it.
What is happening is the recession we had to have, in order to knock some sense into people businesses and governments. The ways of the last three decades have been the wrong ones and the chicken have come home to roost.
A sick person usually takes the medicine subscribed by the doctor with the expectation to recover.
In most countries affected by the living beyond their means sickness the people and governments do not want to take the medicine. They hope for a white knight or a miracle.
In the real world those two don't exist.
So accept that only hard work and being industrious will get you out of the hole plus complemented by living within your means.
Looking for an example, take your ideological glasses off and look at China.
Yes they do not have Western democracy and you can't criticize the government.
Do remember if you haven't got a job you can't eat freedom.
Being able to tell the govt that the are a bunch of useless cretins doesn't pay the electricity bill or the rent.
Living under Chinese conditions may not be your answer but a lowering of expectations will be a start. Then telling the govt to care for the 99% rather than just the 1% is the next step and don't take no for an answer.
Many people don't grasp that a people owned corporation (the people are the shareholders)can work as efficiently as a private shareholder company.
All that is required is competent management, an independent board and run on commercial lines with the aim to be profitable. The dividends are paid to the people shareholders. All the people need is for their government to organise the setting up of the corporation (s) and exercising oversight on behalf of the people.
Don't overlook that dividends are taxable and thus the people pass on a share to the govt for the cost of governance.
This isn't communism. communism failed because it did not involve the people. The one party rulers considered the people as enemies, to be used and poorly rewarded. An approach doomed from the beginning.
A one party rule over time becomes fossilised and thus is unable to adapt to changing circumstances.
Power for power's sake is a recipe for disaster over time. Just look at
periods of life of repressive rulers, dictatorships if you like.
Rulers come and go but the people are there until the end of the world, of course there is an ongoing renewal of generations.
For rulers you can also substitute empires. None of them are indefinite.
We really need to question the 'independence' of these companies. I don't believe they really can be. The process in which they operate must be made more transparent. Who is paying them for the work they carry out, and what if any influence do they exert?
If Eurozone nations do get downgraded and at this time it is still a big IF then this will be a massive vindication of the UK governments fiscal policy and the final nail in the coffin of the Euro.
Nowhere in this piece do you mention why ratings agencies exist in the first place.
They exist because investors (pension funds and insurance companies) need to have a relatively accurate assessment of a company's or country's credit worthiness and they lack the ability to research this themselves.
In a world without credit ratings agencies companies would find it much more difficult and expensive to raise money (because investors wouldn't have the confidence to invest) and that would result in lower growth, lower tax revenues and a lower standard of living for the rest of us.
However, they certainly screwed up over mortgage-backed securities. Which were a relatively new product and more complicated than thought (plus prone to fraud from mortgage providers).
They are much better on the bread and butter stuff. Which, as you say, they have been doing since 1860.
The UK and coalition are on track to be the only major economy to have a AAA.
Does Labour still think it would be worthwhile downgrading the UK credit rating so that they could go on a borrowing and voter treat spending binge to secure power for the Labour elite?
swatantra nandanwar
06 December 2011 at 09:45
"Who is paying them for the work they carry out"
Try reading the article.
Clearly some of you have forgotten that as recently as last week there was concern that the UK's AAA rating would be lost. I hardly think that is a reason for smugness, especially given how much more the Tories are having to borrow in order to pay for their unemployment schemes (remember, they are making cuts that they don't actually seem to understand - laying people off and preventing them paying tax means borrowing has to increase to have them on the dole) and the cuts will have to continue for three more years. The UK won't be AAA-rated for long.
David:
"laying people off and preventing them paying tax means borrowing has to increase to have them on the dole."
Maths clearly not your strong suit.
Laying off a public sector working earning £30,000 saves the government £23,000 a year (30k after tax).
Pretty sure the dole isn't £23,000 pa.
"In addition to the banks, they got £1 trillon from the tax payers and they will never reembourse us back that's why we are having these austerities plans."
Utterly, utterly false, but I can see why you'd want to believe that.
@Shinsei67
Oh yes, those millions of public sector workers on 30 grand a year. It seems reality isn't your strong point.
The average full time public sector worker is on £28,802.
Does anyone know how much does S&P charge a company to give them a rating? What are their fees? Do countries pay S&P for their rating as well? How much?
Perhaps we should change the old adage to:
"whoever you vote for, Standard & Poors get in!" or
"whoever you vote for, the bond market gets in!"
That's certainly how it feels at the moment.
@matt
Foxy, you must be gald of the hunting ban.
I was reading your random posts and trying to figure your point. Its to make it easier to keep score of you own goals.
Is your point S&P messed up on CDO 5 years ago. Err, are you talking about bad lending practices by UK regulated banks under Labour?
@Mr Danger
Mean, Median or mode? I suspect mean. The heavy weighting of those in the upper realms of the pay scale would have an effect on the outcome of the 'average', making it appear far higher than it really is for most workers. In reality, you will be hard pushed to find a lot of public sector workers on anything close to that. Also, where did you get that figure from?
"whoever you vote for, the bond market gets in!"
Don't borrow from the bond markets then.
Singapore and Hong Kong don't. Australia will shortly have no government debt.
Mr Danger:
As you don't provide a reference for your figure, we dont know what it includes: is this the whole of the UK? Are the armed forces included? Is RBS included (as it is in Scotland)? How skewed is the number by Chief Execs' 150k+ salaries?
One also needs to take into account more than just a figure; no bonuses, no 'perks', slow movement 'up the ladder', no company cars, no overtime etc.
I guess most public sector workers get a generous pension (oh wait...)
Moody's, Fitch and S&P are all now regulated, under the EU Credit Rating Agency Regulation.
S&P, another incompetent bunch of shysters. They gave AAA ratings to Freddie Mac, Fanny Mae, Lehmans, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc.
It seems the more incompetent and corrupt the more likely S&P will give you a triple A.
The debate about the average public sector salary is beside the point.
The issue was that it costs less money to have someone unemployed than it does to employ them in the public sector.
So sacking people does save money.
It has costs in poorer public services but on a purely financial basis it does cut the deficit.
Re Saving Money with Public Sector Cuts.
The MOD have spent billions on procurement over the past decade and failed to procure a single piece of equipment worth having. All those billions were spent in the American private sector, not ours. It doesn't matter how many civil servants there are on £18,000 or £100,000 a year, they are all a waste of space and the whole lot should be sacked and those billions spent elsewhere.
Why are they not one of the corrupt ratings agencies that rated junk sub prime instruments as triple A and significantly contributed to the financial collapse... They also rated government boards of barely solvent nations AAA, which has had a rather bad side effect.... still they made money. They should be in the dock along with their co conspirators.
It has been known for some time (but rarely publicly stated) that the ratings agencies reflect not the viability of nations, companies, etc etc, but the state of mind of investors and their stance with regard to whatever nation or company etc etc. Investors are not concerned with the debt of nations, except where it impacts on the money that can be made (and how quickly it can be made). There is no sober analysis or sage appraisals going on here, just pressure, threats, and greed.
A lot of public sector jobs are connected with private firms so when jobs in public sector drop it's affect some private firms.
Shinsei67:
"It has costs in poorer public services but on a purely financial basis it does cut the deficit." But the two aren't seperate- public services save money and are a prerequisite of a strong private sector- we educate people so they can have skills, help them so they can raise children well, and provide business with the infrastructure needed etc.
nourredine: Agreed- there are scores of private companies reliant on the public sector for business. If public services are cut, the private sector also suffers greatly.
Inbrew, random in the sense they actually make sense?
Bad lending practices are what they are, are you telling me Labour should have micro managed bank lending.
Strange how Cameron and Osborne wanted less regulation not more, or didn't you get the memo too?
@Mike Cobley
You raise an interesting point. Why aren't investors interested in the debts of nations?
S&P messed up stretching back more then 5 years ago. Losses occured on CDO in 2007, and by 2008 helped the Global Financial Crisis.
I haven't got the first idea how you arrived at 5 years ago, but as usual, you seem to pluck numbers out of thin air, yet again.
Computer says 'no'.
Bunch of tossers who, given their sound recommendations for the dubious financial prcatices that fuelled the credit crunch, have about as much credibility in the real world as as a swimming pool employing Jaws as a lifeguard.
How unfortunte that the financial twonks who make decisions based on their smoke and mirror predictions don't live in the real world.
@Mr danger, the average civil servant gets under 19k a year. Des Demona, well said.
Annamint:
"Also although public sector cuts may have the illusion of saving money (In a mathmatical way)."
If you work through all the sums of the tax generated through spending and that spending boosting the economy (it's called a multiplier effect and a well-known economic tool) then it is still clear that the government saves money by sacking people.
Otherwise governments faced with fiscal deficits would just hire more people.
So unless you think the governments of Ireland, Italy, America, Spain, Germany etc etc are all stupid then you must realise that the mathematics does work as I have said.
Of course, for every teacher lost there is a net loss on the overall quality of education of the UK population. And for every NHS worker sacked. Etc
And that does have a cost.
So the question is therefore one of balance.
Hence the reason the government isn't sacking all 6 million public sector workers tomorrow in order to clear the deficit immediately but "only" 710,000 over the next four years.
Moody's I think were the blokes that downgraded the Cooperative Bank, the only Bank that didn't go cap in hand to the Govt for a bailout (apart from Barclays). So, i wouldn't trust these Credit Rating Agencies with a bargepole, although the average spculator and hedfer seems to. Something is amiss in the financial sector, when these Raters can label a Nation as A+ or C-. They wield too much power, without responsibility.
to Shinsei67
You seem to forget that not only public sector employee contribute to the tax but also the nhs worker and the teather put in the pension scheme that is sustainable and affordable.
So your mathematical equation is not complete.
Standard and Poor's rescue bid to stop Chancellor Angela Merkel achieving what Hitler failed to do.
ooops cut half off.
Total economic ,social and political domination of Europe.
to Shinsei67
I fail to see the logic in your argument.
I am a private sector worker and I am in a panic now because of Job insecurity .
My company depend entirely on public sector and the rate at which things are deteriorating I am afraid I will be in the dole sooner than later.
Most private sector job depends on public sector from supply chain to services. So you better think twice before making silly comments.
And for S&P I really wonder who these Hooligans are ? People who are always poor in their calculation and in the first place caused the mess we are all in now.
Rob, ah one little difference you fail to mention...the private sector requires a profit. Remember thats why power, water and telephone had to be sold off...as the public sector could not run a profitable business!!!!!!! Strangely the same faces stayed in place ,just got paid more. Surely its logical that Private sector companies must charge more for a service than a public sector one. oh public ones cannot be as efficient...Bulldroppings.
Nourredine, you are a nurse assistant. I'm not sure what that is, but presumably it is at the bottom of the tree. Do you hope to be a nurse and then a sister, if that's what they are called? In other words, do you hope to progress? How long have you worked for the NHS? In most jobs you start at a low wage and it gets bigger as you put in more years of service. And of course you hope to be promoted.
My daughter in the public sector and aged 27, gets £30,000 a year. Her friend, aged 27, in another part of the public sector, gets £29,000. They are neither of them teachers. Lots of teachers get more than £30,000 a year, don't they?
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