The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Cameron's Europe bounce continues

New poll shows that Cameron's EU stance has significantly improved his leadership ratings.

By George Eaton Published 15 December 2011 10:16

David Cameron's run of good fortune shows no sign of ending. Today's YouGov poll confirms the Tories' two-point lead over Labour and reveals that Cameron's stance on the EU has significantly improved perceptions of his leadership. The percentage of people who agree that he "sticks to what he believes in" has risen by 13 points to 39 per cent, the number who view as "decisive" by nine points to 29 per cent, and the number who view him as "strong" by five points to 24 per cent. Since such metrics are often the best long-term predictor of the result of the next election, this is a worrying development for Labour and Ed Miliband. As I've noted before, while Labour led the Tories under Neil Kinnock, Kinnock was never rated above John Major as a potential prime minister.

Few voters know or understand what Cameron has done but, in politics, perception is everything. A series of front pages comparing him to Churchill and hailing his "bulldog spirt" were always likely to improve his ratings at the expense of Miliband's. A week ago, it was Cameron's leadership under pressure but, as yesterday's PMQs demonstrated, the roles have now reversed. Yesterday's defeat was all the more damaging for Miliband since it was the final PMQs of the year. He won't get a chance to avenge that loss and raise Labour MPs' morale until 11 January.

Fortunately for Miliband, today's Feltham by-election should be a shoo-in for Labour (the only poll conducted put Labour 22 points ahead of the Tories) but it will take more than that to reassure the gnawing doubts many have about his leadership.

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Tags: David Cameron

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25 comments

Thu, 2011-12-15 13:44 — Steven (not verified)

Time will tell. Lets see what happens but I do think people will start thinking differently if many more jobs are lost and job prospects for the unemployed become dire and a rise in crime that Clark has predicted.
I find it churlish that Cameron has been compared to Churchill when Cameron is nothing of the sort and this is where Labour should be clever to expose Cameron’s flaws but at the moment they are failing. Maybe it’s the leadership of :about or not.

Fri, 2011-12-16 00:36 — Tom Bola

According tomorrow's newspapers france is asking for the UK AAA credit rate to be downngraded. This is telling me that France is shaking in their boots and have to try dirty tricks.

Don't Prime Minister david Cameron's move look greater and greater!!!

Thu, 2011-12-15 13:47 — Steven (not verified)

* Maybe it’s about the Labour leadership or not* ^^

Fri, 2011-12-16 01:54 — Lady J (not verified)

Any leader who like my friend Luddite and ignorant Indu, shows a hatred for foreigners, based their policies on ignorance and fearmongering and supported by a media that lacks credibility will always poll higher.

What you guys do not realise unfortunately is that Cameron is not a Conservative; but like Blair who was really a Tory, he Camron is a Liberal Democrat. Cameron saw the new treaty as an opportunity to shut the Euroscaptics backbenchers for a short time, while he really gets on with on with the Liberal policies he really wants to pursue.

I am sure he has already had a one to one with Nick to reassure him. He Cameron, the Chemelion, the wolf in sheeps clothing will tell each person and each group exacxtly just what they want to hear.

Camron is not courageous enough to veto a treaty. It was not a treaty, it was a plan. The treaty will be voted on next year. There was no disscussion of his plan. He arrived at the meeting very late to avoid a discussion on his plan. He produce his plan at 2am just before the meeting concluded and was told there was no time to discuss the plan.
No courage, No discussion. Pure spin. But then again Tories and truths are not exactly compatable.

The Conservatives are going to have a big shock. Trust Dave to your peril.

Sleep Tight Luddite. Lots of love.

Thu, 2011-12-15 14:58 — Fraziel1

The large majority of people supported what he did whereas labour and the lid dems arrogantly dismiss public opinion. Not surprising he had a bounce really. I don't vote tory and can't help thinking he showed good strong leadership standing up to those corrupt greedy self serving arseholes in europe.

Thu, 2011-12-15 15:29 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

We are the UK and are NOT told what to do by anyone.

Ed Milibandwagon has self destructed on Europe by critising the British veto. People see Ed and think he is a weak opportunist who is greedy for power and would say anything to get it. He who would be first in the queue to sell British interest to appease the French and make himself look good.

EM - stop thinking about your greedy political skin and show some courage by putting you country first for a change.

Thu, 2011-12-15 15:07 — Adam (not verified)

"Few voters know or understand what Cameron has done but, in politics, perception is everything."

C'mon George, eat some crow. This is what you wrote one month ago, praising Cameron for dropping Europe as an issue (http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/10/cameron-today-bac...):

"Polling by Ipsos-MORI shows that less than half a per cent of voters believe that Europe is the most important issue facing Britain today. When asked to select "other important issues" this figure rises to just 3 per cent. For this reason, Cameron was right to tell his party in 2006 that it had to stop "banging on about Europe". Voters might have shared William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith's euroscepticism but they didn't share their fixation with the subject. They were more interested in hearing how the Tories would improve the NHS than how they would repatriate employment powers from Brussels. True, 70 per cent of voters want a referendum on EU membership, but then the polls invariably show majority support for a referendum on any subject. A long debate over EU membership would have seemed eccentric at a time when there are 2.57m people unemployed and the economy is flat-lining."

But that turned out to be the wrong interpretation of that polling data, didn't it? People care immensely, whether the polling reflects that or not. Even if they don't think of it as their biggest issue when asked by pollsters (of course people will answer "the economy" or "immigration" or "crime", things that may affect them directly and negatively every day), people see the issue of Europe as the issue of Britain as a nation - Will we continue to be sovereign, stable, democratic? Will we continue to spend pounds? Will we be Britain?

It isn't fair for you to cover up your mis-reading of the issue by claiming that this poll bounce is about irresponsible voters incorrectly thinking Cameron is more leader-like because the Sun has described him as Churchillian. You don't need to change your stance on the EU, but you should admit that you were wrong in this instance.

Thu, 2011-12-15 15:42 — nourredine (not verified)

I am wandering if the majority of the nation is aware of the advanteges and the disadventages for in/out of the E.U.
Before asking for a referendum, we need to know the truth.

Thu, 2011-12-15 15:48 — Neville Peters (not verified)

Unfortunately, this just goes to show how shallow and uninformed the majority of the electorate are. How many really understand the motives, details and implications of Cameron's moves in Europe? Very few, obviously.

The UK appears to be full of people grinning themselves to death, to paraphrase the great PD Heaton.

Thu, 2011-12-15 18:32 — Graeme (not verified)

Let's stop going on about this poll which means nothing.

Europe is nowhere in voting intentions unless you vote Ukip.

Comparisons with previous leaders is also irrelevant.

It is the economy!!! Who cares how charismatic the Labour leader is ... people will throw out the toxic party because they and their families are under attack.

Thu, 2011-12-15 19:12 — Chintoo

We should not bash Miliband. Ed Miliband is still learning how to do as a good leader.

Miliband needs to get his five points plan across to Labour's supporter.

If not, why would someone support a party with no plans?

Thu, 2011-12-15 19:42 — matthew fox (not verified)

They bashed Brown, they are now bashing Miliband, and Conservatives keep wondering why the recovery died.

I think the 2.64 million people who are out of work, face a bleak 2012, and have no hope under this government.

Thu, 2011-12-15 20:44 — Luddite (not verified)

Rising unemployment? We still have thousands entering the country and finding employment!! Can someone please tell me what Labour's credible alternative is to responsible government that doesn't involve spending billions we no longer have!!!

Thu, 2011-12-15 21:19 — matthew fox (not verified)

Don't you understand the term " Rising Unemployment" Luddite?

We are spending billions funding an ever increasing welfare bill.

Luddite needs to understand, rising unemployment means less Tax revenue and more government spending, more government, more burdens in the future.

There is no creditibilty in Plan A, plan A that promised 2 million new jobs by 2015, does Luddite remember Cameron's pledge at the Dispatch Box in 2010?

Someone come explain to Luddite, but he wouldn't understand, there would be a lack of swearing.

Sun, 2011-12-18 00:47 — Fraziel1

@Luddite, tens of thousands should not be allowed to come to these shores in the first place. All that happens is they claim millions in benefits and drive down wages.

Thu, 2011-12-15 10:26 — Colin (not verified)

Ed Miliband - he's shit, and you know he is.

Thu, 2011-12-15 22:07 — Luddite (not verified)

Hello 1% Wrong again!! didn't Mark Twain once say. There are lies, damned lies and statistics. So 1% answers this. Why can tens of thousands come to these shores and find employment? Matthew don't look to others to come to your aid, be a big boy and answer that question!!

Thu, 2011-12-15 10:35 — Stu (not verified)

Keep up the good work Ed, the Tories love you.

But the crucial point to this article is whether Cameron can carry on with this game and play it wisely. First of all he needs to show the public that he is still taking the hard stance, protecting the British interest and he must also use his influence to show them that we're no push-overs.

Thu, 2011-12-15 10:54 — Steve (not verified)

"Few voters know or understand what Cameron has done" How very true. You'd think it'd drop with the rising unemployment.

Thu, 2011-12-15 11:55 — nourredine (not verified)

I still think it is too early to judge.
I refer you to this interesting artical
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2011/12/britain-and-eu-1.

Thu, 2011-12-15 12:51 — thinkov

The rest of europe will bringing this twat to his knees very soon

Thu, 2011-12-15 23:20 — Neil (not verified)

A straw poll in my office showed overwhelming support for Cameron but also complete ignorance regarding his motives, the Euro crisis, the moral bankruptcy of finance and the neo-liberal views of all mainstream politicians.

Our media has a lot to answer for. The 99% are being actively mobilised in support of policies that will ultimately harm them most for the benefit of the already filthy rich.

Thu, 2011-12-15 23:31 — matthew fox (not verified)

Wrong again Luddite. Mark Twain attributed the quote to Benjamin Disraeli.

The origin of the quote is not from Twain, and to be honest, those in know ( That doesn't include you ) find it hard to confirm Disraeli actually made those words.

" There are three types of Lies, damned lies and Statistics "

If your going to quote, please get that right, you simpleton.

Luddite, the phrase, " One hand tied behind my back " springs to mind "

Better lucky next time Luddite, another phrase that springs to mind.

Thu, 2011-12-15 13:11 — Acamar (not verified)

As we all know, oppositions don't win, but governments lose. As the economy, stupid, falls apart before our eyes, there is no chance that these chancers will be reelected.