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The myth of "unaffordable" public sector pensions

Forcing workers to pay more is a political choice, not an economic necessity.

The biggest strike for a generation has begun, with around 30 unions, including, for the first time in its history, the National Association of Head Teachers, and two million public sector workers walking out in protest at the government's reforms to public sector pensions. According to the Department for Education, around 58 per cent of England's 21,700 state schools will be closed, with a further 13 per cent partially shut.

With most polls showing a small majority against the strike and others showing support evenly split between the strikers and the government, the battle for public opinion has only just begun. Indeed, the most notable poll finding of recent days (courtesy of TNS-BMRB) is that just 4 per cent of private sector workers claim to know a lot about why the strike is happening. Despite the increasingly sharp rhetoric from both sides, the truth is that today's "day of action" may change little.

But there's no doubt that Osborne's new, tougher austerity programme has upped the stakes. As I reported yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that no fewer than 710,000 public sector jobs will be cut by 2017, 310,000 more than previously forecast. In addition, Osborne's plan to cap pay rises at 1 per cent means that some workers will have suffer an average 16 per cent pay cut over the next five years. If public sector workers can't go on strike in these circumstances, when can they?

For now, here are two myths that deserve to be rebutted again. The first is that public sector pensions, in their current form, are "unaffordable". David Cameron, for instance, has frequently claimed that the system is "broke". But as the graph below from the government-commissioned Hutton Report shows, public sector pension payments peaked at 1.9 per cent of GDP in 2010-11 and will gradually fall over the next fifty years to 1.4 per cent in 2059-60. The government's plan to ask employees to work longer and pay more is a political choice, not an economic necessity.

A

As the Public Accounts Committee observed: "Officials appeared to define affordability on the basis of public perception rather than judgement on the cost in relation to either GDP or total public spending." In other words, the public have been misled and ministers are determined to keep misleading them.

The second is that inadequate pension provision in the private sector is a reason to reduce pension provision in the public sector. The Daily Mail et al repeatedly point out that two-thirds of private sector employees do not have a company pension, compared to just 12 per cent of public sector workers. But this is an argument for improving provision in the private sector, not for driving it down in the public sector. Ministers must not fire the starting gun on a race to the bottom. Indeed, many pensionless private sector workers depend on their partner's public sector pension to ensure a basic standard of living in old age.

We can debate the merits of industrial action as a form of protest. But with public sector workers facing a triple crunch - higher contributions, a tougher inflation index and lower benefits - it's hardly surprising that they feel compelled to defend their rights. Even before any of the Hutton reforms are introduced, George Osborne's decision to uprate benefits in line with CPI, rather than the RPI, has already reduced the value of some pensions by 15 per cent.

Strip away the government's rhetoric ("unaffordable", "untenable") and the truth is that ministers are forcing workers to take another pay cut, forcing them to pick up the tab for a crisis that they did not cause. The public might be on the side of ministers, for now at least, but the facts are on the side of the unions.

57 comments

James1990's picture

I work for £6.83 an hour. I have to work every weekend and the company recently stoppped paying time and a half for Sundays. There is no company pension plan. You people need to live in the real world.

James1990's picture

I work for £6.83 an hour. I have to work every weekend and the company recently stoppped paying time and a half for Sundays. There is no company pension plan. You people need to live in the real world.

Mr Danger's picture

"Remember, we have a Tory government which is only interested in destroying all but the life available to the wealthy."

If you have no argument at all, just resort to class hatred.

Tim Mann's picture

I've just retired as a teacher after 40 years in the classroom. I'm 62 and knackered. My half decent pension is the only perk I've ever had, unlike my private sector friends who've always had more money than me and had more holidays, etc. not to mention firms' cars.
Even my millionaire brother-in-law sneers at my "generous" pension.
Now my younger colleagues will have to work till their late sixties to get a worse pension, having taken a whopping pay cut for extra pension contributions; a 2 year pay freeze, and a 2 year 1% pay cap.
I think we public sector workers may just have a teeny bit of a point!

REPAY's picture

It has been generally accepted in all parties that public sector pensions are not affordable...the maths above betray the economic illiteracy or the partisan lying of the author. Delta minus see me! 30% of all new money for the NHS went straight into the pension which is unfunded...Think about the cost of 1 in 5 people working in the public sector being born by everyine else. Save this twaddle for the Mirror...Fantasy economics as peddled for the last 13 years...

matthew fox's picture

Luddite, come on you silly old chap.

Cameron showered the bankers with bonuses, and Osborne has borrowed hundreds of billions, and nothing to show for it but every increase unemployment.

Just reminding what you are justifying again Luddite, I don't think you know.

Peter's picture

council worker, stay in your pension, and please don't advise others into making stupid decision.

Andy Roach.'s picture

B Small. If you cannot put across your opinion without the insults why bother? Public sector employees support themselves and families just like you. They travel in the same manner, shop in the same places, face the same hardships. Go down your street if you dare. See how many people are employed by the state. We do not live somewhere the sun never sets and fridge is always full. Make you points be all means but with the facts. If you choose to attack me with personal comments then I should assume you want EVERYONE to suffer?

Ian5's picture

Dear Retired Tim, 62? hey, must have been paying in quite a bit to retire early... or can teachers get their state pension earlier than mere mortals.
I'm 55 was knackered in 2006 in a very manual low paid job, insurance payouts don't compensate for loss of pension and anyway my condition could be age related so got 18 months basic wage...seen my projected pension drop from £5,400 to £800 want to swap?.

Oh we on benefits still pay rent and community charge, no winter fuel entitlements , no reduced rates.

Cannot feel sorry for you, should have stayed to 65.

dh's picture

If there has been 3 years of pay freeze ( local government ) followed by 2 years capped at 1 % in times of high inflation, doesn't this mean that the actual salary has dropped by 1/4.
If the problem is that the pension is final salary and the salary has dropped by 1/4 doesn't this mean that the pension for anyone due to get one in the near future has also dropped by 1/4 so why the work longer and the pay more ?

Vorian's picture

"doesn't this mean that the pension for anyone due to get one in the near future has also dropped by 1/4"

Per the interim report (that the chart above is misquoted from), Hutton takes the pay freeze into account, along with the change to CPI. Because the money to pay for it is taken straight from tax revenue, the worrying measure is pensions cost as a proportion of GDP - and that's even worse now, because the GDP growth projections Hutton used have been lowered since the report was published.

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/hutton_pensionsinterim_071010.pdf

Luddite's picture

I know i'm preaching to the malcontents on this site, and political retards such a Matthew fox. but here goes. I fear.
The political-left will talk about how the nasty Tories only want to make the rich richer, whilst making the poor poorer.
We will hear them scream "ITS ALL THE BANKERS FAULT"!
What we won't hear from these malcontents is that it was Labour who borrowed and kept borrowing even at a time of shrinking tax recites. They won't talk to us about how the Labour Party encouraged a generation to stay on State Benefits to keep claiming and claim again without paying a single penny into the collective pot. We wont hear from them how they demoralised a whole generation of young people with mass-immigration of low cost Labour. They won't tell us how we have one of the worst illiteracy rates in the Western World. The Labour party, led by that utter uninspiring Ed Milliband, have yet to say how they would have tackled debt had they remained in power. In fact, they have only jumped on the political band wagon and opposed everything the Coalition have done. Meanwhile, former Labour Ministers, Jacqui Smith, Jack Straw and others, have in fact now "come out" so to speak and admitted that Labour did not do enough when in power.
Whilst the cuts are hard and are having effects on all WORKING families, we should have faith that at the end of this government, debt will be down and benefit dependency will be down also, and here's hoping Labour learns for it's past mistakes, but i very much doubt that.

Maths man's picture

The number of young lecturers who are telling me they are dropping out of the TPS means that the taxpayer will have to pick up more of the pension payouts. The TPS is non funded so what I pay in today goes straight to the treasury and is paid out to a retired teachet. The scheme was set up that way, but in the Greater Manchester LGPS this is a funded scheme, with assets of more than £5b than is paid out, it could go on paying out for the next 20 years without another contribution. So the extra contributions will just be sent to the treasury as the employer contribution is cut, to the tune of £900m a year and these are majority low pay workers. In my own case I worked in the private sector for many years before moving into teaching, well this is the first time I have had to contribute to my pension. My old employer an international bank paid my pension contributions about 15% of my salary, which means I will get a bigger pension from the private sector than the public sector which I pay into. Can I thank the taxpayer who through their bank charges over the years small saving rates, high loan credit card rates that have given me a nice pension.

Ogden's picture

Its pretty bloody simple maths, 23 million people pay the wages of 6 million people, and those 23 million are still paying those 6 million long after they've retired.

The public sector was bloatified under Nu Labour under the most shameless act of cash and Jobs for votes in British history.

And now that the good times of plenty have well and truly gone. The Unions and public sector workers are just acting like lazy spoilt adolescents, throwing a tantrum when broke mum and dad nicely ask for a small token in return for paying for their every needs hand and foot...

The sooner reality bites the public sector in the arse the better.....

Year 6 teacher's picture

I marched today as I am a 32 year old teacher who has been teaching for eleven years. It fills me with fear to think that I may have work for another 35 years in an ever changing, ever more demanding job. Having had two parent teachers who are both now retired, one due to ms and the other to care for him, I know what this job does, don't get me wrong I love it. I saw someone carrying a placard today- children want to learn about dinosaurs not be taught by them, how true and I know my capabilities as an older teacher will not be the same as younger teachers

Les's picture

I hear on the grapevine that public sector pension funds are empty because governments of every colour over the years raided them to keep taxation down. These same governments guaranteed the pensions that these funds were supposed to provide.
Now it is nemesis. The funds are empty and the cost is too great (they say).
Public Sector employees have had their contributions taken (stolen?) and now they are told that the pension they paisd for is unaffordable.
Strike? I would, but it will not do any good because every government (labour and conservative) got us into this mess and in the end who pays for it? Us! Every time!

skiptonman's picture

coming from tories with rich parents and trust funds ... it`s a bit a rich !! ... pardon the pun

David Faull's picture

Public sector pensions even at the level of the gov't final offer, are not an affordable priority of demand on the public purse.
Private pensions schemes have almost universally been cut and switched to a fund basis as employees have been faced with the choice of accepting the change or having the business go bust and losing their jobs. That is where striking, appropriate in the private sector, becomes blackmail in the public sector where the workers, unions, and incidentally management, know the firm cannot go bust and the service is essential.
The taxpayer is being asked to pay for the public sector to get much better pensions than they get and a job security of which they can only dream.
The priority should be to put the saving to OAPs a real contribution to fairer pensions for all

Luddite's picture

David
30 November 2011 at 13:30.
"The rest of us should not be made to pay for the crimes of the banks"

It was not only the banks. The previous and now economically discredited Labour government that maxed-out the nations credit card, and at a time of unprecedented boom never put away for a rainy day, and let's never forget it was a Labour government that helped destroy many previously well funded private pension schemes, but let's not put facts before a well crafted and heart-felt rant.

Brenda's picture

It is the wars that aren't affordable. Funny how neither your pols nor ours mention THAT. Get rid of these right-wing politians who pretend to be liberal or labor. Get some who care about the public sector and the people.

terence patrick hewett1's picture

Technology has rendered 40% of the public sector surplus to requirements. They can easily be absorbed by the private sector once they have been cured of their attitude problem.

St nicolas's picture

Pension fund what pension fund? their contributions are taken and used by local authorities as they wish for the benefit of ALL,the pension contributions should be invested for future pensions but are not.

Vorian's picture

@Brenda: false comparison. Defence is also facing large cuts, and rightly so. But a level of defence spend is unavoidable - unlike, eg, the mass of recently-created "city wardens", who could be sacked without losing any useful service.

ed's picture

pensions are "affordable" because they currently take up 1.9% of GDP and this is being reduced to 1.4%... so, what? that means 1.9% was affordable all along?

ok, so currently i'm spending about 40% of my income on rent. in the future i'd like to reduce that to 25%. but, wait, i'm already spending 40%, so... that's fine! it's affordable!

how is this even an argument...? you get PAID for this?

Shinsei67's picture

"Public sector pension payments peaked at 1.9 per cent of GDP in 2010-11 and will gradually fall over the next fifty years to 1.4 per cent in 2059-60."

But in 2010/11 the government was running a deficit of £155bn. So the government was spending £155 bn more on public services than it was receiving in tax revenue.

Thus, on a long term view, government spending is unaffordable under the current tax regime.

So pensions at 1.9% of GDP are unaffordable. As is education spending, health spending and all other government spending.

To make them affordable needs either a) cuts and/or b) tax rises.

Simon's picture

The graph in Hutton assumes public sector pension reform, not business as usual.

Either you haven't read the Hutton report, or you didn't understand it, or you are lying about it.

The graph also starts at 1.4% in 2000, which we might assume was long term affordable, and rapidly rises to 1.9%, which might well be unaffordable.

John Ruddy's picture

Simon,
The graph in Hutton doesnt assume all the current coalition's proposals are implemented - many of them werent even announced when he did his report!

It does take into account the changes made to the pension schemes in 2007, though, which were done to make them more affordable.

Steve Temple's picture

Ed, it's simple really, the government claims public sector pensions are becoming less affordable, due to people living longer (how inconvenient) etc, whereas the figure George sites shows they are becoming more affordable.

Vorian's picture

Unions are striking against the changes that the graph above assumes. Are you leaving this fact out on purpose, George, or are you ignorant of it?

Shinsei67's picture

The OBR has just downgraded its long term trend rate of growth for the UK economy.

So the GDP figures used by Hutton as the denominator of the Pensions/GDP graph will be too high.

697mkzgmxhgh's picture

When are you 'cerebral' number crunchers, going to mention the simple reality.

PENSIONS ARE PAID FOR BY INVESTED CAPITAL, INVESTED IN ''WEALTH-CREATING'' BUSINESS'S.

BROWN WITH THE AVID HELP OF WALL STREET, ALLOWED THE ''BANKER/FINANCIERS' TO STEAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, AND PUT THEM INTO THE 'OVER-SEAS' TAX-HAVEN'S

There is NO MONEY to generate the income needed for pensions'

THE GREEDY AND AVARICIOUS PUBLIC UNIONS, ARE DEMANDING 'TAXPAYERS' CASH, WITH MENACE,

They pay just a notional amount from their 'tax-paid wages, into their pension funds, AND THAT IS ALL

You would if you paid tax, have to SAVE £250,000 AFTER-TAX CASH, AND INVEST IT, TO GET THE SAME PENSION THAT THE

LOCAL-AUTHORITY EMPLOYEES AND THEIR GOLD-HANDSHAKES WALK AWAY WITH.

How many of YOU, private tax-payers, have saved £250,000 and invested it.

HANDS UP, LETS SEE WHO YOU ARE.

CIVIL-SERVANTS, HERE'S A NEWS-FLASH,

THE COUNTRY CAN NO LONGER AFFORD THE CASH AND PROMISES, YOUR UNIONS EXTORTED OUT OF THE 13 YEARS OF BLAIR/BROWN SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT

go and get a job in the PRIVATE-SECTOR, I'M SURE YOUR ''SKILLS'' will be useful there

mcquade's picture

"ok, so currently i'm spending about 40% of my income on rent. in the future i'd like to reduce that to 25%. but, wait, i'm already spending 40%, so... that's fine! it's affordable!

how is this even an argument...? you get PAID for this?"

And you have time to waste to write this economically illiterate crap?

mcquade's picture

"The graph in Hutton assumes public sector pension reform, not business as usual."

No it doesn't! It's an assessment of the situation as it currently stands. Another ignoramus with time to waste.

John's picture

That is out of context, that graph relates to the massive uncertainties inherent in predicting future public pensions with a variance of around 0.4% by altering only some variables we can therefore not make assumptions as to whether it can remain sustainable. We cannot accurately predict this for 50 years in the future. This journalism is particularly shoddy.

Luddite's picture

"plan to cap pay rises at 1 per cent means that some workers will have suffer an average 16 per cent pay cut over the next five years. If public sector workers can't go on strike in these circumstances, when can they"... The fundamental difference is it's other workers that pays the piper... Workers who have seen their own pensions stolen their own pay and conditions eroded. So what makes the public-sector a special-case. Or are some workers more equal than others. So far i have seen no support for these strikes on the shop-floor most fully understand Labour is in the pocket of the public-sector unions, and many are resentful it was a Labour government that stole their pensions and undermined their pay and condition with ill-conceived mass-immigration of low cost Labour..

mcquade's picture

"Unions are striking against the changes that the graph above assumes. Are you leaving this fact out on purpose"

No they're not. They actually cite the graph to prove current pension spending is affordable. Yet another ignoramus who's part of the 96% who don't know very much about the pension time. What hole are they all crawling out of today?

mcquade's picture

"That is out of context, that graph relates to the massive uncertainties inherent in predicting future public pensions with a variance of around 0.4% by altering only some variables we can therefore not make assumptions as to whether it can remain sustainable."

So why do you think its a feather graph then? Because feather graphs take in all possible variable. DOH!I can't believe the number of dimbos on here today.

John's picture

"Future costs are inherently uncertain and sensitive to assumptions on life expectancy, size of workforce, earnings growth and the implementation of some reforms. Chart 1.B demonstrates the possible impact of altering some of these assumptions. Given the current design of public sector pension schemes, the general public cannot be sure that schemes will remain sustainable in the future". Poor Lord Hutton, listen to his analysis and maybe you won't make such sweeping statements.

Shinsei67's picture

mcquade:

"They actually cite the graph to prove current pension spending is affordable."

All that graph shows is that as a percentage of GDP the cost of public sector pensions is (probably) falling from its 2010 level.

That doesn't mean that the pensions are affordable.

The pensions weren't affordable in 2010. That's one of the reasons why the government was running a £155bn deficit.

swatantra's picture

You may have noticed that the Govt is trying to create a rift between private and public workers, but it simply won't wash. Wokers whatever stay united. This divide and rule tactc by the Govt won't work.

Luddite's picture

mcquade: Other workers know all about affordable pensions, well we did until Gordon Brown stole them. Why should one worker pay more into the pension-pot of another, more than they can pay into his/her own. mcquade your a Labour party apologist what's Labour's plan going to be to end this existing appalling inequality in pension provision, and what's the justification for the continuance of the statuesque? Please don't refer to this ridiculous graph. 'projected' 2039/40 2059/60. that's not a projection in these volatile times it's bloody witchcraft

Luddite's picture

swatantra nandanwar: Workers will once again be united when this disgusting inequality in pension provision is ended not until...

Vorian's picture

mcquade "No it doesn't! "

Of course it does. It assumes uprating in line with CPI, which the unions oppose.

The report says: "Future costs are inherently uncertain and sensitive to assumptions on life expectancy,
size of workforce, earnings growth and the implementation of reforms." Not that they are "affordable".

The report is at http://cdn.hm-treasury.gov.uk/hutton_final_100311.pdf, should you wish to review it before dismissing as "dimbo" everyone that hasn't swallowed the propaganda. What it says at 1.5 and 1.6 ought to disturb you.

rob andersen's picture

oh mcquade!!
have u read any stats? who gets 50 year predictions right. Of it's a feather graph, so it's probility weighted outcomes. Phew, thx for that...
Unbelievable. Fekkin morons with zero stats knowledge telling is that the 50 year graph 'Because feather graphs take in all possible variable'.All possible variables?? mmm, sounds like someone did stat level 1 and reckons he's the daddy now. Just like balls and the fekkin idjit brown, remeber his 30 yuear treasury prediction in 2006? Strangely he ommitted the 100 year worst ever crash... oooh no that's right, wa gonna be over in 6 months.
It's crap journalism and even since Hutton the situation has deterirated. Any loser can see the state of things in the economy, it's in freefall in europe and US and UK. Chinese cutting rates. Relief rally under way for new year then it's game over.
mcquade, it's u and ure mathematically incompetent ilk who STILL have not grasped the numbers.Your moronic insistence that we can afford this and that when teachers in countries NEXT DOOR to us are taking 20% pay cuts overnight... your childish arguments are just that- kid stamping their feet whilst the grown up world watches on, not even in disbelief anymore, the east europeans laughing as they scoop up the jobs...It's the childish belief that stats and models and theories can explain this by a group of people who never created, built, designed or managed anything- yet we still have to listen to their dumb ideas- worse, they won't be honest with their own unions so they will try and destabilise the economy further, because fundamnetally they are parasites- look up the fefinition.
They think that cos they look after u in hospital that means they can hold us hostage... well good luck with that plan of what is essentially extorsion- and fuck u to boot.
The country will get thru thus pathetic strike, heads will work out who they can dismioss in the next round of cuts cos there are doers and then there's wasters

Richard Albright1's picture

city wardens?

CrISpY DuCk's picture

So according to Cameron, Osborne and Maude it is irresponsible for 2m public sector workers to take one days industrial action but it's OK to put 3/4m public sector workers on the dole permanently. How so.

council worker's picture

There is no need for any public sector worker to worry about the new proposed increases in the cost of the pension as all you have to do is come out of the scheme. This will save you up to 6% of your wages and give you a much needed increase in your take home pay. If you have only just started paying into a scheme this is even better as when you finally retire, if you are still alive you works pension will be non existant and you will get the state pension only, then you can claim for all the extra benfits that the private sector who have not joined a scheme will get. you will not starve but you will just about exist. and don't forget to get rid of your house so when you have to go into a home everything will be paid for by the government just like the private sector people who did not join a pension scheme and wined and dined themselves on the money they saved by not being in a pension scheme .
Of greater importance is the fact that the bankers and the government will loose out on billions of pounds of investment capital which will no longer be provided every month by all the public sector workers paying into a pension scheme. So come on all you public sector workers come out of the schemes collapse the pension fund you are in and increase your take home pay now and enjoy your life now whilst you still can and don't save up for the rainy day, as the government and the investment bankers who use your pension capital to are making hay while the sun shines are using your money to provide their income to fund their pension schemes. GET OUT OF THE PENSION SCHEME NOW WHILST YOU CAN AND HAVE A GOOD AND HAPPY WORKING LIFE WITH THE EXTRA MONEY YOU SAVE. Then let us see how far the government gets with no regular monthly income.
Whilst I am on, why if we now only have to pay NI for 30 years to get a full state pension are we still paying the same amount of NI after the 30 years required, and why is it that all the people who invested in a private pension and opted out of SERPS are now going to loose the 1.4% discount and 3% employer discount for NI contributions without getting an increase in the basic state pension that was paid to people who paid SERPS.
The money is better in the private sector, and if you are in the private sector and your money is not good then you are
(1)in the wrong job,
(2)have not got the qualifications to get more money
(3)being taken for a sucker

Sam Gisoad's picture

"the government claims public sector pensions are becoming less affordable, due to people living longer (how inconvenient) etc,"

well, actually it is monumentally inconvenient if

- they are still retiring at the same age, and
- expecting the state to continue to support them till death, but
- not paying any more.

matthew fox's picture

You are preaching Luddite, your that pompous.

Mr Danger's picture

This is all such stale news.

Hutton himself slammed the unions for "fundamental dishonesty" when they presented his 1.4% number as proof that public sector pensions are affordable.

It is amazing that Eaton, or any of the other shills that have popped up here, think they can just follow the lead of the public sector unions and misrepresent what the report actually said, as if Hutton wasn't going to notice and speak out about it.

It is disgraceful to see this desperate last ditch attempt to loot the public treasury even while so many other European countries go to the wall with fiscal crises.

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