Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Anti-capitalist? Too simple. Occupy can be the catalyst for a radical rethink (Guardian)

Capitalism has many guises, writes Ha-Joon Chang. Pigeonholing protesters will only allow those who are against reform to avoid the issue.

2. Europe must not allow Rome to burn (Financial Times)

This may turn out to be the last chance to put out the fire, says Martin Wolf.

3. Steve Jobs or Bill Gates. Europe must choose (Times) (£)

There are more risks for the EU as a 'beautiful' integrated system like Apple than as an untidy alliance like Microsoft, writes Daniel Finkelstein.

4. Assad will only go if his own tanks turn against him (Independent)

Predictions of the Syrian leader's imminent demise are hopelessly optimistic, warns Robert Fisk.

5. Ed Miliband needs to strike a blow, not a pose over industrial action (Daily Mirror)

Industrial action is a big test of Miliband's argument that the major divide in Britain is between the 99 per cent and the 1 per cent, says Kevin Maguire.

6. The markets distrust democracy. Just ask the masters of Beijing and Moscow (Guardian)

Why is the democratic world faring so much worse in this crisis than its authoritarian rivals? It's the austerity, stupid, writes Jonathan Freedland.

7. Money alone will not rescue the euro (Financial Times)

The ECB can backstop political agreement, not substitute for it, says an FT leader.

8. We should celebrate the death of PFI (Daily Telegraph)

Its toxic legacy of debt proves there is a better way to improve Britain's infrastructure, says Jesse Norman.

9. Political elite with a contempt for voters (Daily Mail)

Political leaders continue to show breathtaking disregard for the right of individual eurozone states, says a Daily Mail leader.

10. This is not the Margaret Thatcher I knew (Daily Telegraph)

It'll take more than the talents of Meryl Streep to capture the essence of this political giant, writes Norman Tebbit.

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After Article 50 is triggered, what happens next?

The UK must prepare for years, if not decades, of negotiating. 

Back in June, when Europe woke to the news of Brexit, the response was muted. “When I first emerged from my haze to go to the European Parliament there was a big sign saying ‘We will miss you’, which was sweet,” Labour MEP Seb Dance remembered at a European Commission event. “The German car industry said we don’t want any disruption of trade.”

But according to Dance – best known for holding up a “He’s Lying” sign behind Nigel Farage’s head – the mood has hardened with the passing months.

The UK is seen as demanding. The Prime Minister’s repeated refusal to guarantee EU citizens’ rights is viewed as toxic. The German car manufacturers now say the EU is more important than British trade. “I am afraid that bonhomie has evaporated,” Dance said. 

On 31 March the UK will trigger Article 50. Doing so will end our period of national soul-searching and begin the formal process of divorce. So what next?

The European Parliament will have its say

In the EU, just as in the UK, the European Parliament will not be the lead negotiator. But it is nevertheless very powerful, because MEPs can vote on the final Brexit deal, and wield, in effect, a veto.

The Parliament’s chief negotiator is Guy Verhofstadt, a committed European who has previously given Remoaners hope with a plan to offer them EU passports. Expect them to tune in en masse to watch when this idea is revived in April (it’s unlikely to succeed, but MEPs want to discuss the principle). 

After Article 50 is triggered, Dance expects MEPs to draw up a resolution setting out its red lines in the Brexit negotiations, and present this to the European Commission.

The European Commission will spearhead negotiations

Although the Parliament may provide the most drama, it is the European Commission, which manages the day-to-day business of the EU, which will lead negotiations. The EU’s chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. 

Barnier is a member of the pan-EU European People’s Party, like Jean-Claude Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He has said of the negotiations: “We are ready. Keep calm and negotiate.”

This will be a “deal” of two halves

The Brexit divorce is expected to take 16 to 18 months from March (although this is simply guesswork), which could mean Britain officially Brexits at the start of 2019.

But here’s the thing. The divorce is likely to focus on settling up bills and – hopefully – agreeing a transitional arrangement. This is because the real deal that will shape Britain’s future outside the EU is the trade deal. And there’s no deadline on that. 

As Dance put it: “The duration of that trade agreement will exceed the life of the current Parliament, and might exceed the life of the next as well.”

The trade agreement may look a bit like Ceta

The European Parliament has just approved the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) with Canada, a mammoth trade deal which has taken eight years to negotiate. 

One of the main stumbling points in trade deals is agreeing on similar regulatory standards. The UK currently shares regulations with the rest of the UK, so this should speed up the process.

But another obstacle is that national or regional parliaments can vote against a trade deal. In October, the rebellious Belgian region of Wallonia nearly destroyed Ceta. An EU-UK deal would be far more politically sensitive. 

The only way is forward

Lawyers working for the campaign group The People’s Challenge have argued that it will legally be possible for the UK Parliament to revoke Article 50 if the choice is between a terrible deal and no deal at all. 

But other constitutional experts think this is highly unlikely to work – unless a penitent Britain can persuade the rest of the EU to agree to turn back the clock. 

Davor Jancic, who lectures on EU law at Queen Mary University of London, believes Article 50 is irrevocable. 

Jeff King, a professor of law at University College London, is also doubtful, but has this kernel of hope for all the Remainers out there:

“No EU law scholar has suggested that with the agreement of the other 27 member states you cannot allow a member state to withdraw its notice.”

Good luck chanting that at a march. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.