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Miliband's best defence of Plan B

The Labour leader's latest speech shows he is growing in confidence.

Take another look at us. That was the message of Ed Miliband's speech at the ippr this morning. With growth almost non-existent, youth unemployment at 1 million and the government set to borrow £109bn more than planned, Miliband believes that there is a newly receptive audience for Labour's economic alternative. Still suffering from the cold that was evident at yesterday's PMQs, he began by reminding his audience that George Osborne had promised "a steady and sustained economic recovery, with low inflation and falling unemployment." But Britain now has the highest inflation in the European Union and a lower growth rate than every EU country except Greece, Portugal and Cyprus.

The problem, as Miliband conceded, is that many still believe there is no alternative to Plan A: "You hear it a lot these days. People saying, we're just in for a bad few years. It's one of those things. It can't be helped." But the Labour leader, who taught economics at Harvard before he entered parliament, cited the experience of the 1930s as proof that government was not "powerless in the face of hard times". He went on to deliver one of the best defences of Plan B we've heard.

The Conservatives insist that one more pound of additional borrowing would send Britain the way of Greece, Portugal and Italy. But Miliband rightly rebuked thoe who "peddle simplistic parallels". Britain, with the ability to devalue its currency and to print money, has far more room for manoeuvre. Osborne argues that Labour has no credible deficit reduction plan but, without growth, neither does he. When the Chancellor delivers his autumn statement next Tuesday, he will be forced to announce tens of billions in extra borrowing. With the government certain to miss its deficit targets, the question voters will ask is "what was all the pain for?"

Miliband's cause was aided by Tory MP David Ruffley, who revealed on the Today programme this morning that "there is even talk on the backbenches of temporary tax cuts, even VAT being cut for a period." A temporary cut in VAT, of course, forms the centre point of Labour's now ubiquitous "five-point plan for jobs and growth". (To the evident relief of the audience, Miliband didn't recite all five points.) The plan also includes bringing forward capital spending and levying a bank bonus tax to fund a job creation programme.

But the problem for Labour remains that voters view these measures as individually wise but collectively foolish. They continue to believe that there is little or no room for fiscal stimulus, not least because, in their eyes, it was overspending by the last Labour government that got us into this "mess". Indeed, some in Labour continue to believe that the party will not earn the right to be heard on the economy until it apologises for the profligacy of the Brown administration. But those waiting for an apology for Miliband do so in vain. He vowed that he would never accept "the propaganda" of the Conservatives, which suggests that it was overspending that lead to the crash, rather than the crash that led to overspending.

In spite of this, he remains determined to counter the perception of Labour as fiscally irresponsible. In one of the final sections of his speech, he acknowledged that the failure of Osborne's plan means that "the next Labour government is likely to inherit borrowing levels that still need to be reduced." Indeed, if, as seems likely, the Office for Budget Responsibility concludes that the structural deficit - the part of the deficit that remains even after growth has returned to normal - is far larger than first thought, that will have major implications for Labour's own plan.

In these straitened times, Miliband recognises that you can no longer spend your way to social democracy. He spoke of the need for a "different way of delivering social justice" and for "long term change in the way our economy is run." If he is to be seen as a credible prime minister-in waiting, it is that agenda he must flesh out in the coming months.

Tags: Ed Miliband

9 comments

Leftwing Weak's picture

What tosh does Ed speak!!! Total nonsense!

Eddy S's picture

@Scotty, entirely agree. benefits and entitlements introduced in good times are very difficult to reduce later. most govts are negligent and cant be trusted to run the economy on a sound basis - we need rules to enforce govts to run a budget surplus when an economy grows at trend. the rules are required as govt break promises - such as gorden's golden rules.

Michael Dixon's picture

So what is it to be for Labour? Plan A spend more and increase the deficit, or Plan B cut deeper to decrease it.

Seems like they are moving to Plan B because the country, having rejected Labour at the election, still do not trust them 18 months later.

The idea of Labour reducing the deficit more successfully than the Coalition, when they refuse to apologise for helping cause it and also will not be specific on what needs cutting,("too deep too fast" is meaningless and has no real credibility without detail), has for now anyway, little credibility.

For relatively young men the problem for Labour is their leadership and the baggage it still contains from the Brown Government. Balls especially is a massive handicap to any possible Labour success only surpassed by his leader who, like Iain Duncan Smith when he led the Conservatives, is nowhere near to being Prime Ministerial material.

I believe the Labour Party knows this and the country too. It is going to take a lot to change this situation for Labour, their only hope perhaps the equivalent of Cameron coming from nowhere to lead the Conservative Party.

Awake!'s picture

plan B
bye bye balls.
swantatara, a govt of unity is a good idea in crisis times- ot dosen't deter from democracy. What is required is adults coming together to keep working at the huge proble.
The reason the problem is so big is because the different nations of europe have bickered like kids the last 2 years- the bond schedules were there for all to see, yet they have resolved nothing, and when crunchtime comes guess what, it takes weeks to pass laws in emergenct time, so it's too late.
Darlings plans are pretty much the same as conservatives, so each tme that idiot balls stands up in parliament saying no to everything the coalition put forward, well it's 2 faced for a start... so what is the intention. Why fight evrything if the labour plan is the same?
Balls is willing to destabilise the economy further to get power. because he dosen't grasp the current dynamics , he dosen't get that the conditions are perfect for a perfect storm- a cataclysmic event- maybe he thinks this will herald some new era...it won't, it will just further hurt the generation that he and Brown's reckless ness has already so much damaged.

rebeccabaez's picture

Unemployment in construction is 21.2%, I wish these guys would tell the truth. We all need to education ourself in this tough market only way is a degree or change your career.. search online for High Speed Universities for career advice

swatantra nandanwar's picture

If Chess was popularised more then we might improve the general IQ of the public.
The fact is whatever Labour says today,whatever plan B it has, will need revising by next week, because the situation is so fluid and deteriorating day by day. There should be a clamour for a Gvt of National Unity and Recovery so that we all work with one purpose, and everyboody s on board and nobody is rocking the boat. Osbo's Plan A- is as meaningless as Eds Plan B+ is this crisis of confidence.

Graeme's picture

No, swatantra, you are proposing that democracy should be shelved. Dangerous nonsense.

Scotty's picture

MilliE has a basic problem - every one realises that we can't live beyond our means either as a household or as a country. The problem is of labours making as they should have prepared for a bust instead of arrogantly saying they were presiding over the end of boom and bust. MilliE and balls were at the heart of this failure.
To assume that they could continue to spend a high %ge of GDP when the GDP is entirely dependant upon the health of the economy and could fall, but the amount of spending would stay the same was incompetent and negligent and Millie and co should never be allowed to do this to our economy again.

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