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Could Ukip overtake the Lib Dems?

Lib Dems fall to seven per cent in new poll, just two points ahead of Ukip.

Lib Dems fall to seven per cent in new poll, just two points ahead of Ukip.

A year ago even the most ardent Ukip supporter wouldn't have suggested that their party could overtake the Lib Dems in the polls. But they're now just a few points between the two. The latest YouGov poll puts the Lib Dems on seven per cent (their joint lowest rating since the election), with Ukip two points behind on five per cent (down from six per cent the previous day). As Europe rises up the political agenda, there's every possibility that Nigel Farage's party could eventually overtake Nick Clegg's.

The main explanation for the surge in support for minority parties (their combined support is 15 per cent) is the entry of the Lib Dems into government, which has left them unable to compete for the protest vote. Their supporters have mainly defected to Labour (backed by 41 per cent of 2010 Lib Dem voters) but also to Ukip (backed by four per cent) and to the Greens (backed by seven per cent).

The problem for Ukip, of course, is that however strong their headline support is, they'll be lucky to win a seat at the next election. As for the Lib Dems, they may want to reassess their support for proportional representation. As things stand, on a uniform swing, they'd win nine seats.

52 comments

Old Man's picture

What I found a tad worrying on the Andrew Marr show 4/11/12, when Mr Farage was asked about his expenses he said oh erm ! I must do them !!, UKIP said it's expenses would be done every 3 months !!, it's over 6 months, Mr. Nuttall has not done his expenses for about a year, they are just two things they have put in stone, and have done neither, I have changed my mind Mr. Farage.

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Matt's picture

Ha! Easily.. Lib dems are a joke.

Clegg probably knows this is possible and whilst remains in the coalition will do his best to ruin the UK.

He knows he is on his way out for sure come the next election, so for now he will remain an annoyance to the British public.

Anthony's picture

Vote ukip !!!!

swatantra's picture

The Lib Dems must not lose their nerve. It really doesn't matter that they drop down in the polls and fear they could end up with only 10 seats.
Even with 10 they could hold the balance of power in a hung Parliament and have seat at the Cabinet table. The fact is we are in an era of coalition politics and we could have a Coalition Govt composed of say 5 Parties. And that is no way a bad thing.

Anthony's picture

We can only hope the limp dicks fade away completely from British politics, they are completely out of touch with the British people , Nick the dick Clegg goes out of his way to counter every comment DC comes out with, and more disturbing is the whiff of anti-Britishness running through the party and their sick fanaticism for the EUSSR!!!

C Baker's picture

The lib dems have some very well liked local people promoting them on the door step. They are good at dealing with local issues and this often does them some good, especially at local council level.

They will likely lose the student vote, they previously gained on the false hopes for tuition fees. Clegg was always extremely pro europe and i think many lib dems voters were too. Ukip are more likely to gain from the conservatives and Labour, that are seen to be dithering on Europe. Indeed being pro Europe, may give the lib dems some extra voters, from the die hard euro fans.

Confused's picture

How is 7% of 600 seats 9? Have I worked it out wrong?

Steve Emmens's picture

UKIP is the only real alternative to LibLabCons and Greens all support the status quo with the EU. We need an alternative to the failed 4.Vote UKIP

Mizar's picture

The usual rubbish from swatantra nandanwar. Why don't you go and join the LibDems, who you admire so much?

Heretic's picture

Looks like the NS has been invaded by the angry blazer wearers of UKIP!
I hate UKIP and their Tea Party brand of right wing politics.
As a lifelong Socialist I have far more in common with Socialists and Social Democrats form across the Channel than I will ever have with these latter day Colonel Blimps.
You lot would condemn another generation to war,. The EU has brought peace to mainland Europe for the first time in centuries.
I am English and a citizen of Europe - until I die!

heinz's picture

If UK withdraws from Europe, it would be better, for Europe.After finding a decision amongst 26 member states , there's Britain and spoils the party.
Why UK ever joined the EC is a puzzling issue.UKIP might help to decide, if UK wants to be a part of Europe or the 51st state of the US.
Real independence is an illusion.

lastfreemanineurope's picture

UKIP would have to steer clear of Lobby. but just getting Free of EU would produce a Renaissance and stop failed MEP's Pensions,sinecures,like 14 Private schools funded by taxpayers for their children,when UK is cutting outtings,Swim lessons etc..

Andrew Smith's picture

An electoral system which gave the Greens an MP on a quarter of the vote UKIP attained last time is not (sorry to use a Brown-ism) sustainable. If UKIP do better next time, and very likely exceed the LibDems national vote, and fail to get an MP, there will be a constitutional crisis.

RGoepel's picture

Surprised how many right-wingers seem to read the NS blogs, judging from the comments...

Stuart Eels's picture

RGoepel

What is right-wing or left wing now? Can you see the gap between Tone and Call me Dave? I can't, no doubt Call me Dave will go on a Public speaking tour after he's thrown out and make millions. For some reason Vince Cable will become the darling of the left once out of power and Clegg a European Commissioner.

Maybe we need someone like Nigel Farage who tells you to your face what he thinks after these wasters!

jean shaw's picture

As a YouGovpanel member their results will always underestimate UKIP support.
Their first question which asks which Party you support lists the Lib/Lab/Con trio , SNP , Plaid Cymry and any other Party .Such prompt questions will always bias respondents to pick one of the named choices. Only if you tick "Other Parties" do you go to a second question which lists other parties incl UKIP.
I have asked YouGov why this is their setup and they have given 2 answers
1) Their methodology doesnt allow it , this is rubbish
2) Whoever commissions the research doesnt want to know UKIP's share.

swatantra's picture

UKIP had the perfect op in 2010 o unseat he extremely unpopular Bercow, and yet failed even with a charasmatitic oddball like Mr UKIP himself Farage. They will have another op in Feltham, and I can predict they will fail. Because the penny has finally dropped. We need Europe as much as the Germans need us. What happens on the dirttrack roads of the Dordogne or Alsace Lorraine impacts hugely on us. Never has the phrase 'we are all in this together', been so apt, but it applies to all of Europe.
What Britain could do with now is a Ministy of All Talents, a Govt of National Unity, to get us out of the mess the Bankers got us into.
Suspend the punch n judy politics for 2 years, and all work together.

FreetheUK's picture

It is puzzling why more people are still not supporting the UKIP. I am sick and tired of reading that it is a one-policy party. It isn't. With today's Internet providing so much information, there is no excuse for anyone to not acquaint themselves with UKIP's website.

Maybe the people have to suffer a lot more before they finally realise that Lib-Lab-Con are all the same. None of them will extract the country from the EU, no matter how hard their supporters might wish and dream.

All three have bought into the EUtopia; all three have sniffed the gravy-train and are only too happy to dispense with the needs and will of the people in order to get what they want.

People must change their habits at the ballot box otherwise they will simply get more of what we already have. Unfortunately the way Brussels is going right now, I fear that elections in the future may not even happen; they will be deemed "unessential" as B-EUrocrats move into the highest positions.

Alex's picture

A recent report showed that people of a third world immigrant background are now the MAJORITY in English secondry schools. This is a direct result of Labour's purposeful open door mass migration policies, and the enormous birth rates and sham marriages of these third world migrants, and yet you all still want to vote for the mainstream parties who have done this to us. They are making US the ethnic minority for gods sake! UKIP just won't do anymore. The BNP are the future.

Des Demona's picture

@ALEX
What utter rubbish. There may be a tiny proportion of schools where this is the case, say in areas where certain nationalities are prevelant, but to posit that it is all schools simply shows the credulity, if not ignorance, of BNP supporters.

Richmond's picture

Can any of you "progressives" tell me a single benefit of staying in the EU? UKIP have been right all along.
Also it disgusts me when the left resorts to name calling. If your against the EU why does that make you a "little Englander" or a "colonal Blimp"? I have an International role for a global French company and I think Im well placed to see what an un-democratic disaster it is which is destroying jobs and growth!

Awake!'s picture

UKIP gets more attractive evryday- most movements have to start a little on the fringe to get attemtion...

Ken Hall's picture

I am now a supporter of UKIP Not for the EU stance, or their real promise of a referendum assigning real democratic accountability to a nation choosing to embrace our sovereignty, or relinquish it to a foreign power forever. No, I have looked at their manifesto and I am impressed at the breadth and extent of policies which they propose.

UKIP supporters are going to have to get used to tory charges of UKIP being a "single issue protest party". Sadly, the mentality of these types of tory is that party comes before everything. It comes before policy, insofar as to these people, they will enthusiastically defend any policy the party pursues, but would equally as vehemently oppose the identical policy if it were implemented by another party. It comes before principle, reason or sense. (labour have just as many people with exactly the same mentality).

When we are arguing against such a mentality it is difficult to breakdown the wilful blindness of one who is firmly set upon believing a certain point, regardless of fact or reason. They see UKIP as a threat and will only attack with the easiest lie they can find. They cannot understand that the only way to vote for actual right wing, conservative policies now, is to vote UKIP.

On immigration, crime, defence, environment, economy, tax and spend, education etc.... ONLY UKIP offer conservative policies. The Conservative party only offers labour policies, slightly re-written.

I think that the best line for those is to ask them to actually read the UKIP manifesto and then ask which of UKIP's policies from the following:

The Economy:
Tax...
Budget & Regulation...
Jobs...
Enterprise & Skills...
Immigration & Asylum...
Law & Order/Crime...
Defence...
Healthcare & the NHS...
Education & Training....
Pensions...
Welfare & Social Security...
Foreign Affairs & International Trade...
Energy & the Environment...
Transport...
Housing & Planning...
The Constitution & How We Are Governed...
Culture & Restoring Britishness...
Food, Farming & the Countryside...
Fishing...
And lots of Other Specific Policies...

Is the single issue to which they refer?

The sad fact is, as it currently stands, it is impossible to vote for conservative policies by voting conservative. We get re-worked labour polices. If you are a conservative in the UK, you cannot vote against the implementation of labour policies by voting conservative.

How do I vote for lower taxes? Lower spending? Smaller more responsive government? Less ridiculous, offensive, sexist, racist political correctness? Realistic policies regarding science and climate change? More democratic accountability at every level of government? Better policies supporting those in education who want to work hard and better themselves? Propper law and order policies, real punishment for criminals? and so much more besides?

The ONLY way I can vote for a national party offering me the policies I support, is to vote UKIP.

Matt Thompson's picture

UKIP & the Greens - the only real choice we have now. Whatever you political stance, vote for either of these. LIBLABCON are a fascist dictatoral consortium who think ordinary British people are 2nd class. Farage has alot of charisma, says what he thinks and does not care about the consequences - GOOD.

Geoff Courtenay's picture

Only UKIP has the policies that people want.
This is why Cameron lies about us & calls us 'Racist'
The Conservatives abandoned their best policies & they are to be found within UKIP
This Parralels Woolworths abandonining their fixed price concept & many of their shops being occupied by Poundland. "If it Ain't Bust, Don't Fix It"

Adrianne's picture

Heretic's assertion that the EU has brought peace to Europe rather cuts the ground from anything else he cares to say. It was not the EU but NATO which has assured peace in Elurope since the last war. I don't recall the influence of the EU having any effect in Bosnia or the Balkans where a particularly nasty war raged. Heretic has probably swallowed the rewriting of history so enthusiastically promulgated by the EU itself in which "the Berlin Wall came down because the peoples of Europe were so inspired by the EU".
I was in the Parliament in Brussels last year when they were celebrating the fall of the wall and the ridiculous speeches gave a very rewritten version of history. They have airbrushed Reagan, Thatcher and Star Wars out of history.
Nigel Farage is the only leader with the guts, courage, honesty and determination and understanding of how economies work to lead us out of the ghastly EU mess our last thirty years of politicians have got us into.

Robert Eve's picture

The Lib Dems are the hopeless selfrighteous party.

UKIP are on the march.

Go Nigel.

Radiance's picture

Nothing distinguishes the LibDems - they are supposed to be the party of what, exactly? I remember their slogan used to be 'The party of Local government' Ha ! Ha ! What a curse that turned out to be ! Here's the LibDems on 'Local Government' in (the tiny area of) South Somerset: Phil Dolan told the Local Government Chronicle in February 2010, ‘anyone who knows me will know that I am passionate about councils finding more efficient ways of working.’

Phil Dolan's departing was made a lot easier by the fact he received a total taxpayer funded package of £569,000. . . not bad for 'wages' . .

lastfreemanineurope's picture

Heinz is a baked has been,Heretic is a stalinist tyrannical statist,a loony locked in a deluded Timewarp,; NATO has brought peace to Europe since 1949;Your brand of nonsense brought Warfare in Croatia,in 1995 read books and history

Helen of Hednesford's picture

Ukip would do far better if the People who Moan about all that is wrong with Britain Got off their Fat Backsides and Voted instead of Labelling all Parties as not worth voting for as they are all the same when UKIP would Lose more by being Supported.

Tancred's picture

Pardon a Yank for dropping his oar where it does not belong, but until voters free themselves from chains of debt-slavery to the international bankers, ordinary lives will be perpetually ground down to powder by empty promises of "socialism" which eventuate to serfdom.

Broga's picture

I have never got over watching a programme on UKIP with my wife. A UKIP MP (may have been a Euro MP) told a "joke" he thought was funny. "Why does a woman need legs?"
Answer: "To walk from the kitchen to the bedroom."

UKIP. No thanks. UKIP are superannuated has-beens living in an Imperial past that was fantasy then and cannot be recaptured now.

UKIP and PROUD!'s picture

Helen of Hednesford, totally SPOT ON! All british seem to do is moan and march on even while witnessing the destruction of thir country. It absolutely sickens me, while people in other countries get together and protest against corrupt governments, Most of the 'so called' Brits just carry on and cry 'ohhh petrol is too high, ive no job etc' sorry, but yuod have my sympathy if you did somethign about it. A repeat of the 2000 fuel protests? Unemployment Protests in your town or city? needs must sometimes... The riots were out of order, any civilised human being knows that, but they were there to show us something.. PEOPLE POWER and a VOTE FOR UKIP!

barbie's picture

Well my faith in the Labour party failed when I learnt about their 'social engineering', which was unforgiveable. We are now suffering from this with jobs and housing, hospital waiting lists, and other services. The Conservatives too, have betrayed us all, their promises so wilingly crushed. So, what others have we to fall back on, well UKIP, seems the only party who offer what we the public have been demanding. They will get my vote from now on, honesty, crediblity, and telling it as it is, and no waffle. Nigel Farage as shown them all up for what they are, he knows what's afoot in the EU, he works there; so what you hear is the truth. We the British public should give them the chance to show us what else they can do. Please when you hear waffle about trade will cease with the EU, watch Mr Farage on UKIPtv, not for the party but a free website, where he explains quite seriously where and why trade will continue and under what treaties we still have from the 90s. Its all waffle what they try and tell us, they will trade with us as they need trade as well as us. Learn about the myths they peddle and make your own minds up.

UKIP and PROUD!'s picture

Furthermore, I'd like to say to all of you British born LibLabCon supporters - You are brainwashed traitors of your own country. You dont deserve to be british.

Des Demona's picture

lol

That last comment pretty much says it all on the UKIP mentality.

brook boysen's picture

A pity Eaton, as usual, has no opinion to air or comment to make - leaving the way open for wild uninformed speculations and recommendations here. He and Laurie Penny together would make the original Fabians turn in their graves. As for me, I'm going to stagger on without The Staggers, which I used to subscribe to, having despaired of a real alternative left solution in Britain these days...Think again, wake up, Eaton & Penny... the pen is mightier, etc.?! No?

UKIP and PROUD!'s picture

UKIP and PROUD!, I agree 100% with you. Des Demona, you should note the concern of this individual has of their country. I'm deciding on whether to vote UKIP because I'm sick of seeing our pubs closing and the last of british industry being sold off with a whole host of other thigns courtesy of this and the previous 'EU arse kissing' government... Yes, I admired UKIP and PRPUD!'s bluntness.. Some things just need to be said...

lastfreemanineurope's picture

One of the most farfetched lies was Simon Hughes saying on LBC last week,that the lib-dems deserved the Credit for keeping UK out of the €uro! what rubbish,its UKIP only that did that.tories took us in Ecu in oct1990 by Maggie with help from Heseltine and Ken Clarke.george Soros desreves credit for taking UK out in Sept 1992

Dave Sargeant's picture

We are in dangerous times, revolution could be just round the corner, I don't wish for riots in the Uk but if Germany and France, I do not hate either of them, keep on shouting their mouths off about the UK our people could take to the streets. When they say we are a little island on the edge of Europe and do not understand Europe they conveniently forget our, with the Commonwealth and the USA liberation of the continent. Other comments that the common market/EU kept Europe from war are equally off the mark. It was NATO that kept the USSR at bay. NATO was mainly USA and British equipped. We were promised a referendum by the three main parties, all three backed down. The coming recession/depression could give us this democratic right.

fatman1001's picture

Yes. Please. Yes.
Like Lib Dems split Labour's vote in 2010 fairly and damaged our core vote, I hope that UKIP can do that to the tory's. I disagree that they will only be able to win one seat.
During the vote on the EU referendum there were still tory backbenchers who voted no and UKIP should expose this and target those backbencher seats who votes no.

Awake!'s picture

Voting UKIP in a 'tactical vote' woudn't be a bad idea- sends a message to the main parties.
They don't have depth, but Farage has campaigned on many issues that have come home to roost. It's easier when you're unwedded to big business I guess...

John Merop's picture

I think the next wave of UKIP support to push the party to say 9-10% will come from the patriotic part of the Labour party who have seen open door EU immigration take jobs from British workers. The Labour Party's stance of EU is always a good thing mantra will result in eventual more defection. I think UKIP has probably taken as many Tory votes as it is going to, might get some more Lib Dems. I think going into 2015 election they will poll 9-10% prior & probably take 7-8% on the day. Remains to be seen whether they will get a seat though.

Benjamin Rae's picture

This isn't necessarily good news for those disgusted at the Lib Dems treachery. The last thing any sensible person would want is for UKIP to become a viable coalition partner for the Tories giving them an excuse to indulge their more headcase wing

lastfreemanineurope's picture

UKIP is in fact neither @left' nor 'Rightwing' by Old Political compass in fact UKIP is not perfect,but it does appeal to the 'Libertarian' in myself,they wanted ID Cards abolished,stop Euro bailout so far cost to taxpayers'36billion£ and £21billion again next year.Osbourne is wallpapering over weakness of €uro by printing £275billion so far,destroying Sterling and peoples'savings.G
GLA elections next May could be fruitful,provided the infighting does not resurface.

Graham Gillis's picture

UKIP can be sure of winning Westminster seats. No other party wants to withdraw from the EU. No one believes powers can be repatriated, If lost powers could be returned you would already be able to name one.
That is how the EU works. One of 27 countries can't change it.

UKIPstan's picture

jean shaw was wondering why UKIP is pushed out of the YouGov surveys. I often wonder this myself. Could it be that the president of YouGov is married to Baroness Ashton the unelected High Representative of the EU? I am sure that he wouldn't want people to support an organisation that would give his wife the sack!

Chris Bateman's picture

I am also a UKIP voter. Been so since around 2005 and not had a single regret. Previously, I was a labour voter which I say whilst I am cringing, literally. This current coalition is a complete and utter shambles. Its Maggie Thatcher MK2 all over again. The only thing the tories have learned since the alst time in power, is to emulate the last labour government with its 'pro european and EU agenda' and to 'bully' the elderly, GENUINE disabled and GENUINE unemployed.

It's always a 'Lose Lose' situation.

British people wake up, LibLabCon DON'T care about you, they DON'T represent you and to be honest, they DON'T even want to know you! The only worse thing than voting for them is to not vote at all. A NO VOTE means you've given up on your country and means years and years of misery by the same evil 3.

Think carefully, VERY carefully.

Turn to UKIP before it's too late.

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