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What the anti-immigration lobby doesn't tell you

Immigration has been stable since 2004 and Britain is far from "full".

Last week's farcical debate on EU membership wasn't triggered by an e-petition (it was an old fashioned paper petition) but it has encouraged every reactionary going to submit one. The latest e-petition, put forward by Migration Watch head Andrew Green, calls on the government to "to take all necessary steps" to reduce immigration and prevent the UK population reaching 70 million by 2027. As usual, he has enlisted the support of Labour MP Frank Field and Conservative MP Nicholas Soames, who have penned a joint piece for today's Sun encouraging readers to "tell the Government what they think about mass immigration".

But here are some relevant facts that all three men conveniently chose to omit. First, the recent rise in net migration - the difference between the number of people entering and leaving Britain - is almost entirely due to a fall in emigration, not a rise in immigration. As the graph below shows, annual immigration has been stable since 2004 - not a fact you'll read in most papers. In 2004, immigration stood at 589,000, last year it stood at 575,000.

With demagogic glee, Field and Soames point to "net immigration (sic) last year of nearly 240,000" as evidence that "the Government clearly needs to act urgently." Nowhere do they say that it was net migration that rose to 239,000 and that this was due to a

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Second, there is every reason to doubt that the UK population will rise as fast as expected. Green's dystopian diatribe in today's Daily Mail was prompted by an Office for National Statistics report suggesting that the population would reach 70 million by mid-2027, with two-thirds of the increase coming from new immigrants and their children. But it's important to note that these numbers should not be treated as forecasts, since they merely extrapolate current trends into the future.

Here's the ONS disclaimer in full:

The national population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (whether in the UK oroverseas) might have on demographic behaviour. They simply provide the population levels and agestructure that would result if the underlying assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration were to be realised.

The disclaimer is crucial because, as Philippe Legrain noted on The Staggers last year, "previous projections have proved wildly wrong". In 1965, for instance, statisticians estimated that Britain's population would reach 75 million by 2000. But, owing to a reduced birth rate, It turned out 16 million lower.

By far the most significant factor driving long-term population growth is increased life expectancy. The number of people over the age of 85 is expected to more than double from 1.4 million now to 3.5 million within 25 years. But short of imposing compulsory euthanasia, there isn't much that the neo-Malthusians can do about that.

Finally, even if, like Green, we assume that the population will reach 70 million by 2027, Britain is far from "full". To quote Legrain again: "Three-quarters of it [Britain] is agricultural land. Contrary to the belief that it is about to be concreted over, building 3 million new homes at the government's target density would take up only 0.3 per cent of the UK's land area -- and much less if houses were built on brownfield sites."

Green's fact-free crusade against immigration would be unremarkable were it not so sinister.

Tags: Immigration

93 comments

vwewwygg's picture

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gerry's picture

McQuade - I dont accept Migration Watch's stats but the mass immigration of the last 15 years, with over 2-3 million people coming to the UK from eastern europe and elsewhere is destroying the social fabric of this country as never before.

I simply dont want to live in a country of 70 million people! London and other major cities are overcrowded as it is, what with the decline in social housing which is unlikely to be reversed for a generation..

No country can absorb this level of migration, which has undercut the British labour market,and has only benfitted the rich and those businesses which love to use those migrant workers as cheap labour...

Immigration policy has been sheer madness..and with over a million illegals, once you get to the UK it is very unlikely that you will ever be removed from it..unbelievable!

Sir Michael's picture

@Stuart - the accusations of racism against some commenters is certainly justified. When people draw arbitrary lines through the population based upon skin tone that is pure and simple racism. The problems related to immigration (and I am certainly not going to deny that this is actually quite a serious problem for a lot of reasons) are being used as an excuse to justify that hatred.

If people want to argue it in terms of community cohesion, or in terms of population density vs the infrastructure set up to service said population (as you did), that is a mature and necessary debate. If someone wants to scream that immigrants are less capable than British people, or that "they take our jobs" (jobs aren't taken, they are given to whomever the employer chooses), or that a persons skin colour has any bearing upon their status as a citizen what-so-ever then that's just Daily Express style racism at work. The "us" and "them" attitude is culturally toxic and inherently sectarian.

I don't want apartheid in my country, thanks.

Flashbuck's picture

Oh, and let's not forget another fat the Pro-Immigration Lobby doesn't tell you...

For example, in the UK 1 in 3 of every baby born with genetic recessive disorders is a moslem baby. Fact!

In other words, tribal moslems in Yorkshire are breeding mentally deficient and genetically disorder babies at an alarming rate.

Their screwed up kids then cost the NHS millions.

Oh the joys of immigration, eh? Inbreeding moslems producing geneticist disordered children, costing the NHS stacks, while also hacking off clitorises because moslem men have great respect for women...

Oh ye who believe: Cut off your daughter's clitoris in case she's tempted to flick her bean. Yea - Allah knows best.

marvyn's picture

sarah smith you are a fool.
plenty of white racists like yourself have made precisely the arguments you describe - africa and latin america were to be 'settled' by whites in order to 'imrove the racial stock'. this was standard 19th and 20th century eugenics, and one can see the results quite plainly in south africa or peru (places where genocide actually took place).
you appear desparate to claim the mantle of victimhood, and attatch it to your white skin. why? why are you so aggressively insecure?

jankaas's picture

@Sarah Smith

"Multiculturalism and mass immigration into White countries and White countries only is GENOCIDE."

bet you got aroused when you typed that, perhaps you even climaxed with that last word in CAPITALS? you naughty little madam. grrrr

jankaas's picture

@Flashbuck

"For example, in the UK 1 in 3 of every baby born with genetic recessive disorders is a moslem baby. Fact!"

and your evidence.....?

Marc's picture

The UK may not be full, but our cities are. We need more housing with millions on social housing waiting lists, so lets release some greenfield land to build more houses!

Flashbuck's picture

@jankaas - "your evidence.....?"

"...children of first cousins are ten times more likely to be born with recessive genetic disorders which include infant mortality, deafness and blindness... British Pakistanis constitute 1.5 per cent of the population, yet a third of all children born in this country with rare recessive genetic diseases come from this community." - http://tgr.ph/bZyTLF

"British Pakistanis are 13 times more likely to have children with genetic disorders than the general population - they account for just over 3% of all births but have just under a third of all British children with such illnesses." - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/4442010.stm

See also: http://www.nature.com/hdy/journal/v88/n6/full/6800090a.html

Oh, and by the way, do you know how much costs to treat each and every one of these children born with genetic disorders, eh? More than £80,000 per child, and that's for the relatively less disordered kids!!! Fact!

So, let's hear it for immigration and how it does so much for the NHS. HaHaHa!

Next time, do your own googling.

Sarah Smith's picture

@ marvyn
You anti-Whites talk about my race as though we are particularly evil. Hitler spoke in similar terms about the Jews.

"Because of history" is not justification for White GENOCIDE. You anti-Whites say that White people don't have a right to Europe either. So let's not pretend that this is about the rights of native peoples.
You're not really anti-racist, you're just anti-White. Anti-racist is really just a code word for anti-White.

Sarah Smith's picture

@jankaas

It is true, people here are JUSTIFYING the ELIMINATION of a unique human GENOtype, a GENOcide.

Anti racism is really just a code word for anti White.

Orthodoxcaveman's picture

The few times I've come to this site there's the same nutters (who are probably the same person) like Flashbuck sitting in their filthy Y-fronts commenting like mad, spittle fecked mouth hanging open, ranting in a way that would make the nazi Richard Edmonds blush. Just make your point and move on. You sound like the mentally ill brother of Richard Littlejohn.

jaded1's picture

Let's have a referendum on mass immigration and see how many "little Englanders" there are in the country.
Won't ever happen as the liberal elite will not get the answer it wants-just like the Euro and EU membership.

Flashbuck's picture

@Orthodoxcaveman -

"...nutters... mentally ill... bla bla bla..."

That's right, sonny, when you can't refute the facts pile in with plenty of cheap ad hom. Go for it!

jaded1's picture

People leaving the UK;Retired people with money;Brain drainers;Decent middle class taxpayers.(No poverty stricken asylum seekers)
People coming into UK;Who knows?.
Just because the numbers balance does not make it equal.

Anthony's picture

YEAH , lets concrete over everything just so we can pack more immigrants in, YAWN another bogus bullshit immigration article by George Eaton , to try and justify the stifling of our country. I wish this rag would hurry up and go under.

Tubby Isaacs's picture

Sarah Smith, look up genocide. Really. Look it up. Look up the holocaust. Notice any slight difference from immigration?

And stop wasting everybody's time.

ang's picture

The Tories use scare tactics to gain support. They talk down the economy so much that it stifles public confindence and then hve the audacity to accuse Labour of talking down the economy. God they are so dumb that they think we can't see, it's so depressing.
British people migrate all the time, so why is it different for people to migrate here.

Tubby Isaacs's picture

Quote: "Oh, and by the way, do you know how much costs to treat each and every one of these children born with genetic disorders, eh? More than £80,000 per child, and that's for the relatively less disordered kids!!! Fact!

So, let's hear it for immigration and how it does so much for the NHS. HaHaHa!"

Were none of those parents British citizens? Ah, right "immigrant"= "non-white" then.

And of course the cost of those handicapped kids wipes out the contribution of foreign healthworkers. Estimated to be 42,000 in 2003, and almost certainly much more now.

Yep, you've really done the maths there. You've no idea how many immigrants you're talking about having handicapped babies, and you've no idea how many foreigners work in health,

Rob's picture

My concerns about the level of immigration, and population growth, in this country are not about race. Many recent immigrants are from Eastern Europe (and i do not bleive the aim of the single market was to encourage mass transplantation from Warsaw to Walsall, although tht is what has happened).

I would like to ask those who claim to be on the left why they support between 1 and 4 million (depending on the figuures they wish to cite) coming to the UK over the last decade. Whichever way you look at it, a large number of people have come to a country which has millions of unemplyed natives. Houses and infrastructure have not kept up with the arrivals. To keep up, we will have to build large numbers of homes on land that is not currently developed, or we will have to make our cities even more densly populated. THis does not have a positve effect on community cohesion. Nor does a rapid "churn" of population make for settled communities.

I will not go into the cultural debate except to say that certain faith groups seem to have beliefs wholly incompatible with secularism, sexual and racial equality.

So please tell me, fellow lefties who haven't seen the light, what the fuck are you doing defending such a damaging policy?

Tubby Isaacs's picture

"People leaving the UK;Retired people with money;Brain drainers;Decent middle class taxpayers.(No poverty stricken asylum seekers)

People coming into UK;Who knows?."

If you're going to make a point then I'd say it's your business to know who is coming in and who is leaving, wouldn't you?

And lots of those pensioners don't have much spending money in the UK. They raise money by selling their houses. That's why the numbers emigrating have fallen as houseprices in Britain fall.

And "brain drain"? None brainy people coming here then? Or are they "cheap labour", as you see it?

Flashbuck's picture

@Tubby Isaacs

British citizens? Hahahaha - what you mean is they aren't indigenous natives. Fact!

As for foreigners working in the NHS. So we've raped and exploited less wealthy countries by appropriating their trained nurses, eh? OK, gotcha!

Oh, and let's not forget the reason why we need so much NHS staffing - all the AIDS and TB your immigrants have imported. Thanks for that. Not to mention all the MRSA we now have. Cheers again for that.

Tubby Isaacs's picture

" Many recent immigrants are from Eastern Europe (and i do not bleive the aim of the single market was to encourage mass transplantation from Warsaw to Walsall, although tht is what has happened)."

It was mentioned in the 1951 Treaty of Paris (within coal and steel industries only), so I think it's always been pretty central.

Maybe I haven't seen the "fucking light" like you, but the economy wouldn't have grown at the rate it did for years without immigrants. How much construction would have been done without EU migrants? Construction has always leaned heavily on migrants, previously from Ireland.

There is no reason why working class British people can't be prepared for these jobs (or indeed for jobs abroad). However, given that "the system" shows not the slightest interest in doing so (and hasn't for about 40 years) then immigration is a positive thing.

Tubby Isaacs's picture

"British citizens? Hahahaha - what you mean is they aren't indigenous natives. Fact!"

Fact- you can't tell the difference between race and nationality.

Ah right. Hospitals are full of people with AIDS, and no doubt all these people with AIDS caught it off foreigners. Funny, whenever I've been in a hospital, I've noticed a lot of old people with broken bones.

And no I don't think we've raped other countries for their nurses. I think they're moving abroad voluntarily to get a better job in an area with skill shortages.

Sarah Smith's picture

@Tubby Isaacs

You sound like another small minded anti White bigot that has lost their single brain cell.

"Genocide is intended to signify a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves. The objectives of such a plan would be disintegration of the political and social institutions, of culture, language, national feelings, religion, and the economic existence of national groups." - Raphael Lemkin, who first coined the term "Genocide"

You are JUSTIFYING the ELIMINATION of a unique human GENOtype, a GENOcide.

Many people are now saying that anti racism is really just a code word for anti White.

Joe Swann's picture

Sarah, Flashbuck, Anthony, A. Cole ...

I hope I can get this across without sounding condescending.

Your views of immigration, sadly, are quite dated. Its not your fault, its a remnant of the time's when the human race consisted of small clusters of isolated primitive beings, competing with each other for scarce food sources, and with an instinctive phobia for anything new - after all, the neanderthal you spotted in the distance was just as likely to kill and eat you as you to do the same to him. Xenophobia (and yes, you clearly all suffer this given that your arguments against immigration, as presented here, are not really consistent) is part of the human condition - we're programmed to seek out the differences between us. Its not just a skin colour thing - after all, close to a million of black Rwandese were massacred in 1994 by other black Rwandese, and history is littered with similar examples.

The reality is, immigration is a by product of development. The only reason your great great great grandfather (assuming you're of pure Anglo-Saxon stock) didn't marry a beautiful Polynesian girl was that he'd probably never travelled more than 100 miles in his life. 25% of Britain's white population have some immigrant Irish blood, an 'invasion' that was condemned at the time using exactly the same language and rationale you're spouting now. The issues you're attributing to immigration are really symptoms of the inadequacies of the current system - after all, plenty of 'white' taxpayers in the South broadly view the millions of less well off 'whites' in the North as nothing more than benefit scrounging unproductive breeders.

But then again, its your prerogative, given that this is a democracy, to air whatever views you have. I guarantee you this though, your grandchildren will be greatly amused by their grandparent's oddball racist views, and will laugh at them just as I laugh at those that posted those 'No Irish' notices years ago.

jankaas's picture

@Sarah Smith

"It is true, people here are JUSTIFYING the ELIMINATION of a unique human GENOtype, a GENOcide."

and on you drone, clueless yet persistent.

the correct scientific terminology you are after is not genotype but phenotype. or do you not know the difference?

or as you say; PHENOtype not GENOtype.

Joe Swann's picture

Sarah, why do you trouble yourself with big words you do not understand?

Do you think that a 'White English/British' genotype exists? What next, to expel the ginger, the tall, the blonde and the green eyed for trying to poison this mysterious gene pool?

Flashbuck's picture

@Joe Swann -

"bla bla bla bla bla bal..."

Yawn.

Flashbuck's picture

"Thousand people an hour sign up to e-petitions website calling for debate on immigration."

"By 6pm this evening – 18 hours after its official launch – there were 18,000 signatures. It passed 20,000 around 7.30."

"Sir Andrew Green, the MigrationWatch chairman, said: 'This is a very remarkable start with more than 1,000 signatures being added an hour."

Fact: http://bit.ly/skxQKe

Sarah Smith's picture

@Joe Swann

You are an anti White, and quite clearly nothing but a hate filled bigot. Where does such irrational hatred come from?

There is quite clear scientific evidence of a specific genotype for my people of White European ancestry. Do we not have a right for continued existence? Do you wish to eliminate all of my people?

You are an anti White and support White GENOCIDE.

You make it quite obviously clear that anti racism is really just a code word for anti White.

A. Cole's picture

We are often told by many liberal/left wing commentators that cultural and racial diversity has made an immensely positive contribution to life in the UK. The late Robin Cook spoke of how chicken tikka masala has become the nation dish of Britain; Tony Benn said the fact that some 20% of schoolchildren coming from ethnic minority backgrounds provide ‘a wonderful snapshot of multicultural Britain’.
However what about the politics of race and multiculturalism? Nowadays freedom of speech is curtailed for the sake of ‘multicultural harmony’ under the fascist restriction of political correctness. This has undermined British identity in many ways including those labour controlled councils of Hounslow and Lewisham who refuse to fly the Union Jack from their council buildings on the charge that the union jack is ‘socially divisive’. The very British feature of humour has also been undermined. For instance do we see Alf Garnett or Jim Davidson on TV anymore? These comics have been replaced by the less inspiring left –wing personalities such as Marcus Bridgstock, Jonathon Ross, Jo Brand and Frank Skinner who will dare offend no one -other than white heterosexual right wing males!
We are told by politicians of the economic benefits of mass immigration to the UK. Indeed it is true that mass immigration has provided a cheap supply of labour to businesses, which has kept prices and inflation low and has helped employers to fill positions where apparently British workers have not had adequate skills to fulfil the role.
However, the cheap supply of labour provided by mass immigration has kept the minimum wage low, helping to sustain higher profits for employers but thereby making the gap between high and low income earners more profound and kept the lowest income earners in a cycle of poverty. The ability of employers to recruit skilled workers from abroad has robbed British workers of the opportunity to be trained to have the skills to undertake certain employment.
In housing the Labour Government has failed to build enough council houses meaning that the supply of housing has been inadequate to meet the need of the settled population to the extent where there are some 1.6 million people waiting for council accommodation. This problem is of course exacerbated by mass immigration where newcomers often seek cheap private and council housing.
The way that attitudes to assimilation into UK life for immigrants has been mismanaged. Indeed look at areas of Luton, Bradford, Birmingham and East London where immigrant communities have transformed the area to match their way of life to the country from which they came. It seems that there is too much emphasis from immigrants on the country from which they are from –and not the one they are in! It has got to the point where a recent opinion poll found that 40% of all Muslims in the UK want to live under Sharia Law, which is in effect holding the established laws of the UK in contempt.

Joe Swann's picture

@Sarah Swann,

You now reference your white European 'people'. I take it you have no objection to your long lost white European 'cousins' from Moldova and Lithuania moving to Britain then?

A. Cole's picture

Just consider this.....

As taxpayers in a democracy we have every right to say who should be allowed into the UK!

Joe Swann's picture

@A. Cole 22.50.

I've answered your question numerous times, you just don't bother reading. The benefits of immigration are well known, no point in repeating them. 25% of Britain comprises descendants of mass Irish immigrants. What more do you want me to add?

A. Cole's picture

Joe

I want to know specifically how white working class UK citizens, doing minimum wage jobs living in (or waiting for) council houses have benefitted from mass immigration.

JAMES's picture

An aussies veiw
I have been to London recently, as I walked down the roads, I was struck by the lack of the natives in so many of their former areas, were they have lived for the past thousand years, this will not end well,I was struck by the arse kissing mind sets the the UK elite, who dont live anywere near the ethnics, while kicking the back side of the whites, that do, endlessly, this will not end well,Enock Powell, was right when he said Thouse that the gods distroy ,first make insane.
We in Australia are, 50 years behind you in this insanity.
just an veiw from an outsider

Sir Michael's picture

40% of Muslims want Sharia law eh Cole? Have you been reading White Power again?

http://www.cracked.com/article_18911_5-ridiculous-things-you-probably-be...

Go read that instead.

Then come back, and expain how it's wrong because it disagrees with the premise of the Daily Express.

Then reveal yourself as the very fundamentalist zealot you claim to despise.

My take on this is that we would be better off boosting the international aid budget than taking in more immigrants. I also don't like the way we are talking about taking skilled immigrants only. Those other nations need their skilled people. If we do have something like this we should renumerate those nations for depriving them of a citizen of skill. Perhaps by taking 10 unskilled who want to immigrate off their hands, offering a free university place to one of their youth, or paying them yearly while their citizen works here.

Joe Swann's picture

@A. Cole
I'm sure you'll find plenty of examples these citizens interacting with immigrants, having their children taught by immigrants, having their healthcare delivered by immigrants, collecting their benefits off taxes paid for by immigrants, marrying and having children with immigrants, cheering on their local football team captained by an immigrant, eating fresh fruit picked by immigrants, browsing the internet on fiber technology conceived by immigrants ...

Come on, this is a silly question.

A. Cole's picture

Swann

Your examples are little comfort to low paid white working class people dependant on social housing. It would be better also if those on incapacity benefit were made to work and if necessary were given some assistance with training.

Sir Michael's picture

Cole- "Your latter paragraph at least makes sense. Britain by leeching doctors from India for example may benefit Britain. BUT consider the implications of third World doctors leaving their impoverished countries to work elsewhere??"

Yep. We should really let them take a few of our docs, and take some of their less skilled people into our own country to be given skills. That's the kind of globalization which is constructive rather than destructive. Glad to see you agree with that.

Flashbuck's picture

@Joe Swann -

HaHaHaha -

Unemployment among ethnic minorities costs the economy almost £8.6 billion a year! Fact!

Half of Muslim men and three quarters of Muslim women are unemployed. Fact!

Flashbuck's picture

And let's not forget, the last time England won the World Cup every player in the team was white. But since we started filling the team with non-white players England can't even win an eggcup. Fact!

A. Cole's picture

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Musl...

Bit of inconvenient reading for the apologists!

Ivan White's picture

If you prefer to discuss issues in a more civilised environment, without all the name-calling:-
http://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/

Stuart Eels's picture

Sir Michael

I totally agree, then sadly you get jaded making my point exactly. It's sad that such people from the left and right seem to hog these pages.

Sarah Smith's picture

@Joe Swann

No I'm not an anti White person/bigot like you.

I would have no great objection to moderate numbers of our white European 'cousins' from Moldova and Lithuania moving to the UK if they are highly skilled, able to support themselves independently without any government help, not previously convicted of any criminal activity and bring true benefit to the economy. Such people are much more likely to integrate into our existing White European culture within a generation.

Why, are you against White people? Are you anti White?

Anti racism is often a code word for people that are anti White.

Ben.R's picture

Can you believe the hypocrisy here?
the LEFTIES complain about using statistics yet they're the ones telling us that our population is aging, so we need immigrants! They say this despite the fact that Britain has the highest teenage pregnancy rates in Europe. Whos statistics do we believe?

Putting aside statistics the fact remains that Britain is full, our country is being concreted over, wages are being undercut for mass unemployment. We are being turned into a sweat shop, for the sake of business interests who want cheap labour and so the Labour party and Lib dems can create a new voting base, after they've betrayed the native white working class.

The lefties scream HUMAN RIGHTS, but what about the human rights of our future grand children, who will have to live in an island ghetto because of your policies?

Look at London, Birmingham, that is the future of mass immigration; multi-ethnic segregated zones. If you want to see other cultures, why not visit other countries? why do we need to colonise them here?

Orthodoxcaveman's picture

Rob-

So poverty, over-crowding in slums and mass unemployment before the era of mass immigration was somehow OK or better in some way?

Privet's picture

@Joe Swan 'come on this is a silly question' are you for real Joe??

regarding benefits of mass immigration to white working class

the gap between rich & poor in our country is THE question Joe in current British Politics, & most likley to lead to unrest, someone serving a curry or working as nurse will not change that.

The white working classes have suffered from lack of affordable housing, house prices increase fuelled by increased house demand via immigration, and reduced rates for low to medium paid,

we only have 55 million acres in this country and agriculturaly its best to have at least two acres per person to deliver a high quality food source, im talking decent food like we had back in the day before mass chemical fertilisers and intense farming. Not some sci fi nightmare of polytunnels and fish eating chicken shit like they have in Thailand, thats where we are going we cant feed and water ourselves we are a net importer. Our food is complete crap FACT ask any Polish person who is used to organic food, or French or Italian, Spanish etc
@George Eaton, 70 million is 70 million whatever way you dress it up, they all have to eat & drink on limited acreage, & has doubled from mid century, toooo many people on the rock

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