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Stop the housing Ponzi scheme

The government's new housing policy will collapse sooner or later like a fraudulent investment strat

Yesterday the government unveiled its housing strategy to "get the housing market moving again". The centrepiece was a mortgage indemnity scheme to help first-time buyers to get on the property ladder. But this policy is a disastrous waste of taxpayers' money that will satisfy nobody.

The mortgage indemnity scheme is set to make it possible for first-time buyers to borrow if they can find a deposit of just 5 per cent of the property value. Lenders, meanwhile, will offer the remaining 95 per cent, safe in the knowledge that the first 14 per cent of losses on a house that later sells for less than its initial price will be taken by either the buyer's deposit, or the taxpayer and house-builder's guarantees that cover the other 9 per cent. Whatever happened, you might ask, to the Government's mantra that "you can't get out of a debt crisis by taking on more debt"?

This is a bad deal for taxpayers. There are good reasons why lenders are currently unwilling to offer 95 per cent mortgages on the open market, and 90 per cent loans are rare. Mortgage providers are signalling that they expect prices to fall, and don't want to lose their money when they do. The current housing market very closely resembles a Ponzi scheme where new investors to the scheme (in this case first-time buyers) pay for the returns to existing members (higher house-prices for owners). As with all Ponzi schemes, this scam can't go on forever -- sooner or later you run out of unsuspecting new investors and the whole thing collapses. It's unfortunate, then, that the Government feels that it's wise to devote taxpayers' cash to one final round of pumping up the property bubble.

For similar reasons, the scheme is a false friend for first-time buyers. The current scarcity of highly leveraged loans for first-time buyers is a helpful signal to them to stay away from the precarious housing market. By meddling with those signals, the indemnity plan risks tempting hard-up young people into a falling housing market -- fodder for the last round of the Ponzi scheme.

Even business is likely to be disadvantaged by the scheme. With government offering attractive guarantees for residential mortgage lending, it would be unsurprising to see banks diverting funds away from vital lending to UK businesses in favour of unproductive property. This is the last thing we need in the current business lending drought.

Meanwhile, the real beneficiaries of the policy will be house-builders, who will be able to continue to sell over-priced property. But then there's always someone who benefits from a Ponzi scheme.

So at best, by buttressing house prices with taxpayer cash, this policy will be a simple transfer of wealth from young people without assets to older citizens with lots of housing wealth. At worst it will tempt vulnerable young buyers with little money into a falling market, wiping out their nest-eggs, and making the rest of us pay for it through our taxes.

Instead of this we need a real solution to the problem of unaffordable housing. House prices are high right now for two reasons: the emergency measures in place to deal with the credit crunch, and excessively restrictive planning laws. Rock-bottom interest rates are allowing existing home-owners to sustain huge mortgage debts -- for now. But this support for prices is temporary, simply postponing the day of reckoning when some owners will have to crystalise the losses on their over-priced properties. When that happens first-time buyers will find property much more affordable.

In the medium term, if we want our citizens to live in civilised conditions, the answer is to liberalise planning laws to allow house-builders to create homes where people actually want them. How often do you appreciate, say, the fallow scrub land of the green belt just south of Junction 26 on the M25? And now contrast this with how often you lament the absurd sums needed to afford that bigger house that would better suit your family's needs.

Until we recognise that these things are connected and have a level-headed discussion about the trade-offs, we will never be able to give our citizens the "dream of home-ownership" the Prime Minister aspires to, at a reasonable cost. But whatever your view on the long-term trade-off, one thing we should all agree on is that politicians should stay out of housing finance. It's time the government stopped trying to prop up the absurd UK property Ponzi scheme.

Ian Mulheirn is Director of the Social Market Foundation.

10 comments

David's picture

Surely the most sensible solution would be to wean the country off its addiction to owning property? No other country in Europe has this crazy culture of home ownership, and it's madness to encourage people to take on yet more debt when personal debt is at record levels. All this will do is give yet more money to the banks. Time for a reality check, guys.

swatantra's picture

Agree. Stop this poncy scheme now before it collapses around our ears like a house of cards.
We need to redefine the Green Belt; that means building on scrubland and scrap metal yards. Proper houses, not more poncy flats.
And, more properties at affordable rent.
And, scrap the Right to Buy
And, hammer those profiteers that Buy to Let. The current Planning Laws are a disgrace.

Lox's picture

Spot on. This scheme to underwrite mortgages is completely insane. Housing is overpriced: would the government intervene to support the price of any other commodity?

Minimise planning regulations, scrap them completely for conversion of industrial/retail property or land to residential use within cities.

Kath Howard's picture

Developers are already sitting on acres of land with planning permission. There are hundreds of thousands of empty homes. Deal with those before doing away with planning controls. Also, developers are building homes that housing assocs. reject as substandard. Set standards for all new build.

Tesco Shelf Stacker's picture

Falling house prices will help first time buyers - not government intervention. Misguided government meddling in the property market is just going to create more problems. Let the free market adjust itself and fix the problem. The banking collapse was caused by government involvement in the housing market. Get the government out of the way and let house prices fall to levels people can realistically afford. Stop tampering with the property market - it was tampering that caused the housing bubble and it is tampering that is prolonging the housing woes for first time buyers.

Nilsey105's picture

Tesco Shelf Stacker
22 November 2011 at 22:31

"The banking collapse was caused by government involvement in the housing market."

Can you please provide evidence of this statement. Thanking you in advance

Part Man Part Washing Machine's picture

Tesco Shelf Stacker-how's that free market working out?

Cyprian Latewood's picture

If you can only get 5% of a deposit together, should you really be buying a house/flat?

ukpoliticalreform's picture

The sad truth is that the government know that this is not going to work but like most politicians in power they will clutch at any temporary fix as it looks good (to some) that they are tackling an issue.
What we truly need is a coalition that ignores party politics and concentrates on putting the people first and the people must be the poorest and hardest hit by recession. Unfortunately we do not have this as we only have the illusion of a democracy.
Investing into 2.5 million new council houses around the country would be a massive boost to the economy and serve both public and private yet doing that would be pure socialism and that is just a dirty word in politics and private business. So instead we have to put up with more ideas from the parasites who help feed the bigger parasites.

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