Will Osborne produce a credible plan for growth?

Amid the gloom, one good news story isn’t enough and the Chancellor knows it. He must act to stem th

Tuesday's ONS release provided a rare slice of good news for George Osborne. Public sector net borrowing, excluding aid to the banking sector, totalled £6.5bn last month compared to £7.7bn in October 2010, leading analysts to predict that the Chancellor will meet his target this year for net borrowing. Now is not the time to clink the champagne flutes, however.

The timing of this news is important. It follows David Cameron's disclosure on Monday that getting the finances in order is "proving harder than anyone envisaged" and comes ahead of revised forecasts from the OBR next week, which are expected to confirm what others have been saying for months: the Chancellor's plans to eliminate the current structural deficit by 2014/15 are going to have to wait an extra year, probably even two.

Whether Tuesday's data will cushion the impact of the impending blow to be delivered by the OBR remains to be seen. The Chancellor will no doubt use it to reiterate the claim that his plan is broadly on track and the country must stay the course to keep the markets at bay. But deep down, he knows he faces an even bigger problem: an economy starved of growth. As he will no doubt be reminded going into next Tuesday's Autumn Statement, GDP increased by just 0.5 per cent over the year to the third quarter of this year and it remains 4 per cent below its peak level of Q1 2008. Following in the tracks of the Bank of England, the OBR is expected to downgrade its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 for a fourth time.

There is no shortage of reasons that have been given to explain the current slowdown. The government would like everyone to think that it is the fault of the Eurozone crisis, despite the fact that our GDP slide started far earlier than the rumblings in Athens and Rome. But the cause of the slowdown is less important than the fact of it. If there is a role for policymakers to play in responding to fluctuations in growth then action is needed now.

Thankfully, Cameron, Clegg, Cable and Osborne have started to acknowledge this, which is why we are likely to see announcements in next week's Autumn Statement to bring forward planned capital spending and further details on how "credit easing" will be implemented. These steps are welcome, yet on their own insufficient. The package would be made worse if -- as is expected -- it includes a series of measures to curb employment rights in the view, mistakenly held by those on the right, that this will magically spur job creation in the private sector.

On Tuesday, IPPR published our top 10 ideas for how the Chancellor can revive the stagnant economy and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. Some of our proposals are concerned with the lack of demand in the economy right now, while others focus on what needs to be done to address the long-term structural weaknesses that have plagued our economic performance.

In the short-term, the priority is plain and simple: generate more growth to reverse the recent rise in unemployment and set the economy back on the path to full employment. Hence our call for the Chancellor to pledge an additional £5 billion for infrastructure spending in affordable housing and transport in 2011/12, reverse plans to cut capital allowances which will disproportionately affect manufacturers, and offer a job guarantee to every long-term unemployed young person by injecting an extra £2 billion into a ramped-up 'Green Deal'. In our view Osborne must also ensure that further fiscal tightening not only heeds to market concerns, but is also response to business and consumer confidence, and the outlook for growth.

In the medium-term, there is a need to ensure that any growth is sustainable -- taking advantage of our strengths, whilst not being dependent on a handful of bubble-prone sectors -- and that the benefits are shared broadly. To help achieve this, we propose the creation of fully-operational National Investment Bank by 2013, a revamped Export Credit Guarantee scheme to support SMEs and giving the service sector better access burgeoning overseas markets, and a rethink of immigration rules that restrict students and skilled migrants entering from outside the EU, which hampers businesses and our world-class higher education sector.

Faced with the prospect of a decade of stagnant growth, the government must now act. It must first put out the fire and then rebuild the house. This will not be a straightforward task, but it must happen. No amount of good news should distract the Chancellor from the urgent need to announce a credible and comprehensive plan for growth -- of the sort we prescribe -- this coming Tuesday.

David Nash is Research Fellow at IPPR

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Four times Owen Smith has made sexist comments

The Labour MP for Pontypridd and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour leadership rival has been accused of misogynist remarks. Again.

2016

Wanting to “smash” Theresa May “back on her heels”

During a speech at a campaign event, Owen Smith blithely deployed some aggressive imagery about attacking the new Prime Minister. In doing so, he included the tired sexist trope beloved of the right wing press about Theresa May’s shoes – her “kitten heels” have long been a fascination of certain tabloids:

“I’ll be honest with you, it pained me that we didn’t have the strength and the power and the vitality to smash her back on her heels and argue that these our values, these are our people, this is our language that they are seeking to steal.”

When called out on his comments by Sky’s Sophy Ridge, Smith doubled down:

“They love a bit of rhetoric, don’t they? We need a bit more robust rhetoric in our politics, I’m very much in favour of that. You’ll be getting that from me, and I absolutely stand by those comments. It’s rhetoric, of course. I don’t literally want to smash Theresa May back, just to be clear. I’m not advocating violence in any way, shape or form.”

Your mole dug around to see whether this is a common phrase, but all it could find was “set back on one’s heels”, which simply means to be shocked by something. Nothing to do with “smashing”, and anyway, Smith, or somebody on his team, should be aware that invoking May’s “heels” is lazy sexism at best, and calling on your party to “smash” a woman (particularly when you’ve been in trouble for comments about violence against women before – see below) is more than casual misogyny.

Arguing that misogyny in Labour didn’t exist before Jeremy Corbyn

Smith recently told BBC News that the party’s nastier side only appeared nine months ago:

“I think Jeremy should take a little more responsibility for what’s going on in the Labour party. After all, we didn’t have this sort of abuse and intolerance, misogyny, antisemitism in the Labour party before Jeremy Corbyn became the leader.”

Luckily for Smith, he had never experienced misogyny in his party until the moment it became politically useful to him… Or perhaps, not being the prime target, he simply wasn’t paying enough attention before then?

2015

Telling Leanne Wood she was only invited on TV because of her “gender”

Before a general election TV debate for ITV Wales last year, Smith was caught on camera telling the Plaid Cymru leader that she only appeared on Question Time because she is a woman:

Wood: “Have you ever done Question Time, Owen?”

Smith: “Nope, they keep putting you on instead.”

Wood: “I think with party balance there’d be other people they’d be putting on instead of you, wouldn’t they, rather than me?”

Smith: “I think it helps. I think your gender helps as well.”

Wood: “Yeah.”

2010

Comparing the Lib Dems’ experience of coalition to domestic violence

In a tasteless analogy, Smith wrote this for WalesHome in the first year of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition:

“The Lib Dem dowry of a maybe-referendum on AV [the alternative vote system] will seem neither adequate reward nor sufficient defence when the Tories confess their taste for domestic violence on our schools, hospitals and welfare provision.

“Surely, the Liberals will file for divorce as soon as the bruises start to show through the make-up?”

But never fear! He did eventually issue a non-apology for his offensive comments, with the classic use of “if”:

“I apologise if anyone has been offended by the metaphorical reference in this article, which I will now be editing. The reference was in a phrase describing today's Tory and Liberal cuts to domestic spending on schools and welfare as metaphorical ‘domestic violence’.”

***

A one-off sexist gaffe is bad enough in a wannabe future Labour leader. But your mole sniffs a worrying pattern in this list that suggests Smith doesn’t have a huge amount of respect for women, when it comes to political rhetoric at least. And it won’t do him any electoral favours either – it makes his condemnation of Corbynite nastiness ring rather hollow.

I'm a mole, innit.