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The Chinese banking accident waiting to happen

An IMF report suggests Beijing is storing up huge problems in its disordely and opaque financial sys

A number of newspapers yesterday reported a warning by the International Monetary Fund about the health of China's banking sector. I'm surprised it hasn't been more widely discussed in the context of the generally dismal outlook for the global economy.

The IMF's analysis has some quite frightening implications. The general message is that the Chinese financial sector is full of hidden liabilities and is vulnerable to shocks from the bursting of a property bubble. It is written, as IMF reports always are, in arid technical prose, but the picture that emerges is one of a system that has become bloated and irresponsible thanks to a lack of regulatory and commercial rigour. Anyone know any other financial systems that meet that description?

The system is becoming more complex and inter-linkages between markets, institutions, and across international borders are growing. In addition, informal credit markets, conglomerate structures, and off-balance sheet activities are on the rise.

The scale of the risk was hard to assess because of a shortage of good data, which hardly encourages a generous interpretation of the situation.

Perhaps most alarming is the suggestion that Chinese banks have made heaps of loans based on political rather than commercial imperatives.

Banks' large exposures to state-owned enterprises, guaranteed margins provided by interest rate regulations, still limited ability and willingness to differentiate loan rates, coupled with the implicit guidance on the pace and direction of new lending, undermine development of effective credit risk management in the banks. It is important that banks have the tools and incentives to make lending decisions based upon purely commercial goals.

Given China's well-documented problems with corruption, that would imply that Chinese bankers have been doling out cash to their patrons and friends in state-owned companies. That situation can run along unchecked for a while, but at some point in its transition to a functional market economy Beijing will have to enforce some discipline in terms of which enterprises are bona fide and which are unprofitable make-work schemes - or worse, empty shells funneling cash to corrupt officials - supported by loose credit. It sounds as if any serious rigour along those lines would risk bank failures and even a systemic financial crisis. That can't be good.

26 comments

Buckskins's picture

If China calls their note who cares. We will print all we owe them. They can have it in $bills by the boatload.

El Sid's picture

Obviously there is corruption. But the bigger problem is the inefficiency of a centralised state, hinted at in "the implicit guidance on the pace and direction of new lending". The real problem are the bureaucrats whose careers depend on building x,000 new housing units and creating y,000 new jobs. It doesn't matter whether these are real jobs or whether anyone wants to live in the new houses, all that matters is that the mayor or whoever can report that it has happened to his superiors. Beyond that, they have no real interest in the sustainability of the building they order, or the lending that is needed for it to happen. It's the Communist equivalent of NINJA mortgages, and is why you get all these "ghost cities" being built like Zhengzhou New District and New Ordos, and why there's 65 million empty houses in China.

That's not corruption as such, it's just the way the political system works in China. In order to save the world economy, perhaps the Staggers could persuade China to be a bit more capitalist and a bit less socialist about this kind of thing?

south pacific's picture

western commentators are always looking for ways to criticize the Chinese.

If they stuff up it is their problem to solve.

What these people really should say is that if China stuffs up it will affect us.

The writers don't give a stuff about any effect on China.

The Chinese do things their way and why not.

They are successful because of hard work and industry.

Something the West is no longer capable of.

The result is envy by the West.

The Chinese are beating them at their own game. They select from the systems of the West what they find useful and ignore what they find useless.

Take the currency. Its value is regulated. It is in their interest.

There is nothing to stop the West to regulate its currency. All it would do is that currency traders no longer have a business and make loads of money.

China is merely looking after its own interest and refuses to dance to the tune of the West.

If China's present course will not be of benefit to them I am convinced that will change course but not necessarily to one the West would like.

kjpower's picture

they definitely need a market system like ours which no corruption, real transparency, leadership, etc. after all look how well we are doing!

Bill Bradbury's picture

The "Inscrutable Chinese" RIP?

Dr Ross Grainger's picture

I roughly agree with the writer's analysis of the Chinese financial system. However, he failed to mention the fact that the Chinese central bank, Peole's Bank of China, requires all the banks to lodge over 20% of their reserves with them. Also the 'big four' Chinese banks, as they are known, do not have a liquidity problem. Besides the dangers pointed out by the IMF many local authorities borrowed money to build what are in effect, just prestige projects which have little or no economic value in terms of returns. However, despite the problem of largely uncoverable debts and the problems identintified by the IMF, the still rapid growth of the Chinese economy will mean many of these problems will become increasingly less important over time. China's greatest danger is if it's economy slows to less that 5 to 6%. If that happens the issues identified by the IMF will become more important.

Matthew Hall's picture

Much of the chinese gov't holdings are in depreciating dollars they can't use inside china. That isn't an asset to them, its a liability.

Mrs Nobody's picture

65 million empty homes in China? That should knock a hole in Chinese property prices.

Perhaps we should built a few more here?

Gideon's picture

I'm sure we are heading for another banking crash as the current one has not been addressed.
But what the hell does the IMF know?

Awake!'s picture

@ matthew hall
having around 2 trillion dollars (reserve curreny of the world) is not what most would define a liability, but agreed, the coming years of printing will mean it gets devalued- it's why the chinese (I belive) are making a mistake- they should SPEND it, order in 1000 passenger jets, 10 metro systems, 5 power grids etc... that way they would avoid the inflationary impact AND aid growth in the west. It seems they are led by numpties as well os they think they can do it themselves. well i won't ride on a chinese jet thanks...

DAULAT RAM's picture

The IMF warns:

"It is important that banks have the tools and incentives to make lending decisions based upon purely commercial goals."

Do me afavour, will you? Tell the IMF to f- off.

China has flourished by DELIBERATELY ignoring the Western capitalist feudal classes and their puerile advice.

DAULAT RAM's picture

The I-M-F????

The obscenely over-paid hacks and servitors and bumsuckers of the obscene rich who totally failed to see the 2008 Crash coming are giving ADVICE?

Excuse me while I vomit.

Captain Sensible's picture

@J Unit CYP UK
23 November 2011 at 16:44
Bonkers mate it will be a nightmare for the Chinese who owed!!!! they will be eating each other within a week. We should default like the Chinese did in 1921. This did not cause the Great depression but it was part of the storm.

Des Demona's picture

The Chinese Government controls the Chinese banks. The Chinese Government is rich as Cresus, sitting on a massive balance of payments surplus.

The banks could give money away by the barrowload and it wouldn't make a dent.

Stu's picture

Well Chinese have enough cash to bail out their own banks if it did happen it would be a good wake up call, much needed.

mhenriday1's picture

Given that the IMF has such a splendid record in predicting the 2008 crisis in the USA, the Icelandic- and Irish crashes, and the current crisis roiling the Euro zone, the Chinese would be advised to listen very closely to the words - or should I say, «pearls» ? - of wisdom issuing from the fund's headquarters in Washington....

crabstix's picture

If they need to bail out theirs, then who, pray tell, will bail out ours?

Exactlty

Ravinder Nath Dhar's picture

If the capitalist system went bust a few years back despite the bailout,there is no guarantee that the communist system is going to survive.

ron moore's picture

they probably have to cheat to keep pace with out cheating

Gerry Tierney's picture

Aren't the Chinese sitting on a surplus balance to the tune of TRILLIONS of dollars?

Yeah, it sounds like they're doing it wrong and should follow our example.

jdd's picture

It is the fact that the Chinese have trillions of dollars which, when the bubble burst, they will need to shore up their banks that is worrying. They will be forced to sell their US Treasury paper which will have a major impact on the dollar and the ability of the US to raise money to cover its yawning current deficit.

Awake!'s picture

Good to highlight problem simmering away.
In answer to why you're surprised it dosen't get more attention it's just that the western indebted countries crisis is way worse, opposition in China is crushed (literally at times), they do have a very large 'cash cushion'also, and an underfunded welfare state so in the event.
Certainly, if their little bubble implodes, really ain't gonna help things. They're now a global player, but the comunist party can't really handle this move into the big league, and this cashes out at international level as not spending enough with western economies since they are still stuck in a mindset that admitedly got them to where they are now. They want to copy our technology instead and build for themselves WHILST funding this by selling to us- they have not realised that equation doesn't hold for ever but they have been advised by the same bunch of clown economists who been spouting in the West for years. Our politicians have been extremely weak with them at the negociating table (which is how the trade imbalance got so large, krugman woudn't know about that), instead our politicians imported deflation vote buying sweeties, and the chinese laughed all the way to the bank. A banking problem will flare up there sure as night follows day, it is part of the cycle of things- very few people are stupid enough to think they can overcome natural laws of growth or motion, and when they try the consequences are disastrous...

Matt Thompson's picture

Expect the next phase of the financial crisis to unfold very soon.

Stu's picture

If China was going under wouldn't they demand their loans back from the american's and EU? just a thought

J Unit CYP UK's picture

It'll be a nightmare if China re calls its loans that it has given Britain.Thanks to balooned borrowing from Labour, we might unwittingly have to fund the Chinese invasion of India.

Daulat Ram's picture

TheIMF scum shoould be told: get lost, you do not have a red cent worth of CREDIT left.

You are grotesquley overdrawn.

You are BANKRUPT.

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