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The battle for growth

Slower growth in 2011 is not due to the eurozone crisis; slower growth in 2012 will be.

George Osborne was reported recently by the BBC as saying: "It is a very, very difficult and dangerous situation in the eurozone - Britain is impacted by what's happening. There's no doubt that growth in Britain, jobs in Britain, have been hit by what's going on in the Eurozone."

This is probably only true of the last few months, and then only to a limited extent. The slowdown in growth in Britain began in the fourth quarter of last year, since when real GDP has only increased by 0.5 per cent, and employment growth began to falter earlier this year. The crisis in the eurozone has been rumbling on for some time, but it only came to a head sufficiently to affect the UK over the summer months.

This can be seen in the latest trade data. UK export volumes to other EU countries increased by 5 per cent over the last year; exports to the rest of the world were up just 1 per cent over the same period. If the eurozone crisis was to blame for weak growth in Britain, these figures would be the other way round.

Other explanations are needed for the underperformance of the growth in Britain and two stand out. First, higher oil and food prices - and the increase in VAT - have squeezed households' spending power. This is evident in the latest retail sales data. Sales values increased by 5.4 per cent over the last year - a healthy rate of increase - but sales volumes were up just 0.6 per cent. The difference is inflation. Second, the Chancellor's tough fiscal plans have taken demand out of the economy and dented business confidence about future levels of spending. Hiring and investment spending have slowed as a result. Hopes that the private sector would respond to a tough fiscal policy with a burst of entrepreneurial activity have proved totally misplaced.

The worry in all this is that the effect of the eurozone crisis on growth and jobs in Britain is yet to come. Even if the crisis does not worsen - and it would be a brave person who argued that this categorically will not happen - demand in the eurozone is going to weaken in coming months and many forecasters believe it will slide back into recession. This will affect UK exporters: around two-thirds of UK exports go to the rest of Europe. Harder to measure, but possibly more important for growth and jobs in the UK, will be the effect on business confidence. Few company directors will feel comfortable implementing expansion plans at a time when the news headlines are dominated by the risk of Armageddon on the UK's doorstep.

And if the crisis does get worse, the prospect of the banking system freezing up again, followed by another credit crunch, will be a real one.
This is already being reflected in economic forecasts. Earlier this week the CBI revised down its estimates for growth in the UK to 0.9 per cent in 2011 and 1.2 per cent in 2012 and the European Commission predicts growth of just 0.7 per cent in 2011 and 0.6 per cent in 2012. If the Commission is right then the UK is going to come perilously close to a recession in the next few quarters.

This is a challenging backdrop for the Chancellor as he prepares for his Autumn Statement on 29 November. The Government has published a Growth Review, a Plan for Growth and is now reviewing the Plan for Growth. But the economy is barely growing and the outlook is for things to get worse not better. Each of these documents suffered from the same basic weakness. It started from a set of measures agreed between the coalition partners - cuts in corporate tax rates, an increase in the personal tax allowance, aggressive budget deficit reduction - and attempted to build a growth plan around them. This is the wrong approach.

A plan for growth should not be based on a set of miscellaneous policies agreed in coalition negotiations. It should identify what is needed for the economy to grow - additional demand in the short-term and increasing supplies of capital, labour and land in the medium-term, together with better ways of utilising them - and then work out how the government can help deliver them.

We are promised "credit easing" and a focus on housing and infrastructure. These are welcome but more, much more, is needed.

Tony Dolphin is the Senior Economist and Associate Director for Economic Policy at ippr

30 comments

matthew fox's picture

Awake, I feel your angry, it is so pathetic.

swatantra's picture

... and Tory MP Mercer seems to have lost it completely, according to The Mirror, faith in Cameron that is.

Mark's picture

I suppose 0.5% growth in Europe next year is to do with Osborne as well.

David seriously you're becoming a laughing stock. We have some of the lowest interest rates on bonds in Europe, in case you've not been watching there has been near oblivion in Europe.

Argh nevermind, let's just borrow more - who cares all that matters is more GDP growth, nevermind the debt

Luddite's picture

matthew fox
It was Gordon Brown himself that set-up the disastrous system that allowed the banks to regulated themselves which in turn left the country with this gigantic financial headache.

Shinsei67's picture

"But the economy is barely growing and the outlook is for things to get worse not better."

Yes and no. The macro economic environment will certainly weaken but the issues you mention that have squeezed household incomes (VAT rise, higher oil price, higher food prices and other imported parts of inflation) should all reverse quite significantly next year.

Livers's picture

@Shinsei67

Can you explain why you think the impact of VAT and higher oil and food prices will reverse next year?

Are we all going to get a pay rise?

Luddite's picture

matthew: What's wrong with working in a brewery. I would imagine it's quite interesting and rewarding.. Matthew... are you a closet snob, i think you really want to be a Tory.. I certainly could organiser a piss-up in a brewery, it's just a pity your wonderful Labour party couldn't..

matthew fox's picture

come on Luddite, you imagining, that would be a first.

I doubt you could organise a bread fight in a bakery Luddite, I mean you wanted to know what action Brown had taken to curb bankers bonuses.

Only someone like you could ask such a question.

Awake!'s picture

@ Luddite
I didn't say cut it out completely- it's just that there's WAy to much of it making crazy costs... you want to open a small business on a hight street right now, your business rates are 40% of the rent AGAIN, paying for the numpties to turn up and insist u put in wheelchair access for your human cannonball classes...
@ Fox
'Osborne adds to the welfare spending on a daily basis. Why are so many conservatives relaxed with this.'
that's because they are ensuring that the truly weak and poorest in our society are going to get extra help as the cuts sink in- pupil premium, increase tax threshold, the POOREST uni applicants go free maintenance grants or something, it goes on. The point is that asswipes like yourself will be encouraged to fuck off and die whilst the needy get access to the resources u were previously consuming, and therefore wasting- stuff like oxygen, water, a job...

matthew fox's picture

The OBR growth figures have been rewritten more times, then the Gone With The Wind script.

They have been over optimistic from the moment Osborne came into power.

The OBR is a vanity project, that offers a multitude of excuses for Osborne.

swatantra's picture

Correct.
But it was an attempt to make OBR a body independent of Govt.

matthew fox's picture

You haven't the first idea about JSA Luddite, if you put as much effort researching as you do swearing, people could read your posts.

1.6 Million people claim JSA, Luddite, just remember that. That is a just a starting point of what other benefits,they will be able to claim, eg, Free School meals, Housing benefit.

You might try to skim over this unpleasant fact, then again, facts aren't your strong point, are they.

matthew fox's picture

The Conservatives and Lib Dems, had no problem blaming Gordon Brown every time it rained.

Osborne has sleepwalked into another crisis, he has attended G8 and G20 meetings and still has nothing productive to say, always attacking the eurozone leadership.

Osborne blamed the snow for last year's Q4 contraction,that how poor he his.

With unemployment at a 17 year high, and welfare spending 5% higher then last year, Plan A is really working.

The consequence of lower growth means more government spending and lower tax revenues, the last time I checked, the JSA was paid by the government.

matthew fox's picture

Sorry, it should read " that is how poor he his "

Luddite's picture

matthew fox: Why would i wish to wast bread? As for 'Gordon Brown'... The less said about that embarrassment the better.. "bankers bonuses" Matthew them bonuses that you hate so much are paid to all bank workers from the wanker at the top to the hard working lad & lass on the desk and in the back room.. And lets not forget in the good times the banks made and still do make billions for the treasury. Money! Gordon Brown in his time as chancellor squandered on the unreformed and inefficient public sector.

Awake!'s picture

'It should identify what is needed for the economy to grow - additional demand in the short-term and increasing supplies of capital, labour and land in the medium-term, together with better ways of utilising them - and then work out how the government can help deliver them.'
help...

matthew fox's picture

@Stu

If this comedy hour?

When Labour came to power, unemployment at 2.5 million, don't tell me you have swallowed all this guff about Labour taking over a "Rolls Royce " economy.

I don't know if you understand how graphs work Stu, but the false argument about a " Massive Rise in Unemployment " during the boom years, really doesn't hold any weight whatsoever.

Unemployment actually rose for the first time, under Labour in 2007, a stonking 10 years into government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

Luddite's picture

matthew fox:
Job Seekers Allowance, Free School meals, Housing benefit, Council tax rebate, Free bus pass.. Free entry into most public swimming pools and leisure centers. I get your point, but i prefer to paid my way, and work for a living... i don't care much for day time TV... don't you get bored...

Luddite's picture

Awake! there's nothing wrong with health and safety in the work place, after all.. you don't go to work to die..

matthew fox's picture

You couldn't get my point Luddite, you don't have the intelligence.

There is no swearing on daytime tv Luddite, is that why you give it a miss?

You prefer to rant for the sake of it.

Osborne adds to the welfare spending on a daily basis. Why are so many conservatives relaxed with this.

Mark Allan's picture

Mark,I'm all for paying off the debt but how can you do that with poor growth,reduced tax incomes due to increased unemployment and an ever increasing welfare bill because of those job cuts?
Why cant people understand when you implement austerity you strangle growth its as simple as that. Its a question of how much you implement it over how long that matters.
Take Spain last week,savage cuts, result? Zero growth! How will they pay their debt back on that basis? They cant.

Awake!'s picture

Mark allen
Why do u think cuting health and safety will lead to a dangerous working environment???
And u want more red tape!! Not even Balls is asking for that,can u explain why or how more red tape will stimulate the economy??

Luddite's picture

matthew fox: There's a fundamental difference between paying a unproductive government worker £25.000 plus pension, and paying them £67.50 Jobseeker's Allowance. You do the maths your intelligence one?

"There is no swearing on daytime tv Luddite, is that why you give it a miss?" No i'm to busy working...

"Osborne adds to the welfare spending on a daily basis. Why are so many conservatives relaxed with this" The coalition isn't relaxed about rising unemployment no one is, it's awful and soul destroying, but to create sustainable employment one has to make painful and difficult decisions. All governments can do is to make life easier for employers, and create the conditions for sustainable employment. Something our previous economically discredited Labour Government never did! 1%.. and with 1 million of our young people unemployed why are we still allowing any economic migration? Go-on Matthew call me a racist...

Luddite's picture

matthew fox: You'll know all about Job Seekers Allowance.. 1% Greece is bankrupt and will default. Italy likewise, and now the speculators 'that's money men to you' are looking closely at France.. Unemployment will keep rising, so lets close the door on the millions of economic migrants that will be flooding out of Europe and Ireland. Germany already have plans in place... Typical Germans.... The Germans are the greatest winners here and French the greatest losers, the fogs will hate that... The British look-on in amazement at the German out-maneuvering the French again..

Awake!'s picture

mark allen
economically u can have austerity and grow an OPEN economy- blanchflower and gang won't admit that (well blanch MIGHT) . We have an open economy.
th whole of europe including us is heading for zero growth, the US not far behind- these are ALLmajor indebted economies. Asia is still growing at 7-9%- do u see a pattern?

Awake!'s picture

cut tax, cut red tape, promote economic zones, simplify tax codes, reduce health and safety and u get 1.5 to 2.5% just there

matthew fox's picture

Luddite, your not a racist, you hate everyone, I can tell that from all the bad language you use.

Awful and soul-destroying, do you mean like the 80's when there was 3 million plus unemployed.

Interested to know where you work Luddite, is it the White Lightning brewery? Are you a failed party organiser there?

matthew fox's picture

Come Luddite, stop talking in riddles.
Your on the record, asking what Brown did on bankers bonuses.

Please don't deny it.

Stu's picture

@ Matthew Fox
"With unemployment at a 17 year high, and welfare spending 5% higher then last year"

Apparently under Labour there was a massive rise in unemployment during the 'boom' years, even when Britain 'had' money Labour couldn't reform the benefits system.

There are companies now moving their business ventures away from the Eurozone and US, opting for Asian countries like China and India whilst keeping their operations in the UK - a good example is Landrover as we have seen on TV. I think businesses need to follow suit, the future has always been China, UK was too slow to capitalise on this fact, France however wasn't.

Mark Allan's picture

Awake,cut taxes eh? So Osbourne,increases VAT,forcing inflation up! Good start! Less red tape? And let the financial institutions carry on as before and firms sack people at will. Less health and safety so people can work in dangerous enviroments unfettered. And all that will get nearly 2% growth. Dream on!
We're here now because there wasn't enough red tape not too much!

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