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RSSWhat if ... Gordon Brown was leading the Eurozone crisis?
The former PM's reputation deserves to be reconsidered in light of Europe's current economic problem
By Guy Lodge Published 17 November 2011 13:23
Not since the Second World War have the eyes of the world been so fixed on watching events unfold in Europe. There is a palpable sense that history is being made in front of us. Will the leaders of the old continent finally get their act together and solve the sovereign debt crisis - or will their inaction push the global economy off a cliff? This crisis has been going on too long. People are getting impatient. Obama is not alone in wondering what on earth Merkel, Sarkozy, Barroso, Van Rompuy and the others are doing. Summit after summit has failed to bring closure. The recent G20 in Cannes was depressingly and predictably a non-event.
No one denies the intimidating magnitude of this crisis but it is escalating out of control precisely because EU leaders are not doing "whatever it takes" to avert disaster. Many are simply not up to it. Papandreou and Berlusconi have been swept from office. Who will be next?
Reflecting on this display of inept leadership Jonathan Freedland rightly and boldly suggests that it calls for a re-evaluation of Gordon Brown's much maligned premiership. He should be congratulated for offering an important corrective to the standard media portrayal of our last prime minister. As Anthony Seldon and I argue in our book Brown at 10 despite being so hopelessly unsuited to the job of Prime Minister, history will be kinder to Brown because of the way he handled his major test: his response to the global banking crisis of 2008-09. Of course Brown was responsible for profound errors, of which the most significant was probably his contemptible failure to come to power equipped with a distinct programme of his own, but Brown's record as Prime Minster demands candour and honesty.
Brown's unrelenting determination to block Blair's ambition to take Britain into the euro illustrates how the records of political leaders can be transformed by the passage of time. As the crisis in the eurozone deepens day-by-day who can deny that the country owes Brown a debt of gratitude for keeping us out? Tory eurosceptics should do the decent thing and acknowledge Brown's historic role in safeguarding Britain from monetary union.
Brown is known to be deeply frustrated that he must sit and watch from the sidelines as Merkel and co fiddle around as the eurozone burns. His advice is still sought by the big players, but he once again wants to be leading from the front. Had he secured the top job at the IMF he would have been able to influence events. But this was never really a runner - partly because Brown himself did little to advance his own candidacy and partly because George Osborne in particular would not stand for it and actively lobbied his fellow finance ministers to kill the idea. However, had the course of history taken a different turn back in the autumn of 2009 things might now look very different for Brown - and possibly for the eurozone itself.
In that autumn Europe was once again locked in a series of crisis meetings, but this time the dilemma concerned the decision over who should be appointed to the newly created post of EU President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs. As is well known Tony Blair was desperate to become EU President but his bid was always a non-starter: hell would have had to freeze over before Sarkozy and Merkel allowed him to strut the European stage.
Much less well known is that the prospect of a British President had one final flare before being finally extinguished. At a meeting in Berlin Sarkozy, with Merkel's support, told Brown that there was one Briton they were prepared to support: Brown himself. A startled Brown immediately turned down the offer. To have accepted would have meant resigning as prime minister, and whatever else Brown might be he is not a quitter.
Sarkozy and Merkel were both fans of Brown. Naturally they found him difficult and irritating, but they admired the leadership he had shown during the financial crisis, indeed they leaned on him heavily. Merkel would regularly call him to pick his brains about how to save the banks. At the height of banking crisis Sarkozy took the unprecedented step of inviting Brown to attend a meeting of Eurozone leaders so he could explain his plans for banking recapitalisation, a plan they subsequently used to devise their own rescue packages. The contrast with the highly marginalised position of David Cameron, who Sarkozy recently berated for trying to muscle in on crucial talks a couple of weeks ago, is striking.
Might Brown now regret the decision? Had he taken up the offer he would have the big post-No 10 job he so obviously craves. He would also have an opportunity to resuscitate his reputation after the dark days at No 10. Above all he would be in pole position to help steer Europe away from economic catastrophe. Whatever his other short comings - and there were many - his record during the 2008-09 global banking crisis, and in particular during the 2009 London G20, revealed his potential as a statesman. It was not pretty but Brown's tenacity and refusal to take no for answer in April 2009 saw him hammer out a deal that helped rebuild confidence in the global economy.
No one would suggest that one person could fix Europe's current troubles, but had he accepted to become Europe's president back in 2009 who can honestly say that he would not have gripped the current economic crisis more effectively than the woeful leadership currently on display? The irony of Brown, the man who twice vetoed British membership of the euro, saving the same currency from oblivion makes for an intriguing 'what if' in contemporary political history.
Guy Lodge is an Associate Director at IPPR, and co-author (with Anthony Seldon) of Brown at 10.
Tags: Gordon Brown
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Guy Lodge is associate director at IPPR. He is co-author with Iain McLean and Jim Gallagher of Scotland’s Choices: the referendum and what happens afterwards and with Anthony Seldon of Brown at Ten.
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39 comments
Cameron's and Osborne's protestations are looking puerile and pretty thin now. Not only are people waking up to the fact that they have been lied to and manipulated and used, they are also starting to realise that Cameron and Osborne have prevented us from having someone that could have probably stopped this crisis becoming this bad. Brown remains the only person capable of leading this lot out of this dreadful situation. http://www.grantsforcollege101.com/
Utter tripe
What if Brown,the worst UK Prime Minister in 100 years, was in charge of even more than one country. What would happen ? Do me a favour. Gordon Brown was an utter disaster, the one single great achievement he had to his record was to keep the UK out of the Euro.
He didn't have the guts to stand for an election and undermined his own Party Leader and Government for 13 years in pursuit of his own lust for power. He should be a back bencher and that's it.
Brown reacted well to the financial disaster, (using tax payers money t bail out the banks). Remember Fred, the injunction Shred? but Brown should have made more noise and stuck to prudence, not go along with the bankers in the run up to the crisis. He was part of the cause. All those bank dos and city lunches and euro meetings. Any fool knew it would end in tears.
I'm fed up with the european leaders ruining what should be a great trade zone. They've sold out all the hard work of the people both in the public and private sector to the casino style bankers.
Germany has great engineers. So what? when their hard work and export capability is negated from the banks bad decisions.
Germany has had 10 of it's banks downgraded I believe and one of the top people in europe has warned of Germany's debts being a worry, if todays article in Das Zeit is anything to go by.
This is what I just don't get. Europe owes trillions. The rates at which they have to pay this back are getting higher. Now how are the technocrats, politicians etc going to get these debts paid off? Raising taxes, cutting wages, getting in owed taxes, cuts, work till we are 100, austerity etc, will make so little difference. The debts can't be paid. Please somebody realise that.
war is the answer... 'can't pay back well you're gonna make me?... lets 'ave it out then...', destroy the loan company in this case China, WW3 and then boom! no more debt we all start from a clean sheet... what are the chances?
ok that was stupid... but then to even think about Brown having all that power is ridiculous!
John Major was easily the worst Prime Minister in 100 years.
His government levied VAT on utility bills, create a scam where people where shuffled from the unemployment to sickness, at the stroke of a pen.
John Major's leaving present to the Nation? a National Debt of £400 Billion, 1 million people on a NHS waiting list.
According to Patrick Mercer, its Cameron who is the worst PM ...
Personally, I think it was Balfour, who left us with an appalling legacy.
"John Major was easily the worst Prime Minister in 100 years" Matthew fox the worst Prime Minister in 100 years was Gordon Brown. Now stop being silly.
Gordon advised on Euro-rescue packages? And they used it? No wonder they're in trouble.
As for rejecting Britain joining the Euro, I can only think that he was waiting for a worse time . . . like now.
Cameron's and Osborne's protestations are looking puerile and pretty thin now. Not only are people waking up to the fact that they have been lied to and manipulated and used, they are also starting to realise that Cameron and Osborne have prevented us from having someone that could have probably stopped this crisis becoming this bad. Brown remains the only person capable of leading this lot out of this dreadful situation.
If Italy can install an economist as their prime minister unelected, then Europe can call on Brown and put him into a position where he can help, this is no time for stupid pride
WE need Gordon Brown and so does the EU - fast!
Quantitive easy sounds like a laxative but you can still piss other peoples money against the wall!
Gordon played his hand in 2008, he has nothing more to show. However I don't agree with the troll-like comments above. He was a better PM than many we have had and he will be remembered, and thanked, by many working families who benefit from Child Tax Credits and, incidently, who have been stitched up by Giddy.
Debt was coming down in the later Major years and carried on so whilst Brown was following Tory spending plans and selling 3G licences.
Thereafter it went up, certainly by over 200 billion before the crisis hit. It depends I suppose where you date that.
It should have carried on going down.
Brown was an inept Chancellor and PM in so many ways one wonders where to start.
We must be grateful Blair wanted into the Euro because that ensured Brown would be against it.
"Sarkozy and Merkel were both fans of Brown."
Breathtaking. In other breaking news they were reported as favouring Fred & Rose West to be placed in charge of child-care, and for King Herod to run the post-natal units.
Brown was poor in many areas. Not least his willingness to throw away Labour's guiding principles in the New Labour project. That said, would the Tories have regulated the banks? Would they he'll.
In all honesty Brown probably should have been running a slight surplus in the run up to the crash. The Tories did say though they would spend everything Labour was.
Brown acquitted himself well during the crisis and only those blinded by hatred for the man would not concede that. What Osborne and Cameron are finding out now is that there are limits to what cheap simplistic political opportunism and slick presentation can achieve.
Cameron and Osborne are political lightweights. It's blindingly obvious that they're totally inappropriate leaders for the time. Brown was better in some respects but inadequate in others. I suspect Milliband and Balls would have a better grip on the situation (they understand economics better than people realise) but they are still too tainted by the their complicity in New Labour. We need a real departure from economic policy of the past 30 years. Tinkering round the edges won't cut it.
The model has failed and only real changes in taxation and wealth distribution can put us on the right track.
Gordon Brown has a PhD in history and spent his early career working as a lecturer in a further education collage and was also a television journalist. So what qualifies our Gordon to be the saviour of the world? lets also not forget it was Gordon Brown that transferred responsibility for banking supervision to the FSA many would say this decision exacerbated the severity of the banking crisis in Britain. Our Gordon will be fondly remembered for increasing the tax burden on the working poor. '10% starting rate of personal income tax'. Benjamin Rae: I fully understand that this isn't what you meant by "changers in taxation" Rae: we need to start creating real wealth not imagined wealth. We need to start investing in genuine wealth creation not wealth manipulation. Tax reform will play it's part, but not in the way you believe.
@Mrs Nobody
Its easy to borrow public money and spend it pleasing people to win their support.
Its harder to live within your means whilst remaining popular.
The government needs to cut back on public sector spending by around £4k per year for every single working person in the country. Thats to break even on the deficit even before trying to pay down the massive national debt. There arent enough rich people to break in order to pay for the deficit reduction.
I dont think most people realise just how bad a situation the country is in. Thanks to Gordon.
@union Steve
Largard says we should cut public sector pensions to reduce the deficit and Milibandwagon agrees. Italy, spaind and france are all looking at cutting the pensions.
Do you agree with them?
I can't believe this article! If Brown were still in charge, we would be scavenging firewood to keep warm and eating grass by now - and having to learn German.
O happy days! If only.
Calculating, scheming and a plotter; a non-people person and a non-team worker he may have been.
But Brown came into his element with the collapse of Capitalism: Commeth the crisis commeth the man.
Seddon is right History will be much kinder to Brown than in fact to Blair.
Pity just at the moment when the EU is thinking about being more accountable like an elected President, even an elected Council of Ministers, etc.
If Brown had stepped forward to serve Europe and not just Britain as President in '09 instead of Rumpoy stepping down as PM of Belgium, we would be well on the way to intrducing some basic reforms in Europe by now.
And we would have had that leadership in Europe that is so lacking with currencies steadily sinking into the sunset.
Kismet as they say, or, thats Show Business.
The man who boasted there would never be a return to the old boom and bust has been utterly discredited, and fully deserves his exile into the political wilderness.
An end to boomb and bust !!! LOL
The man was a walking economic disaster area.
If Gordon Brown had got the job he deserved, head of the IMF, the Eurozone would have been sorted by now.Just a pity that our incompetent Chancellor lobbied against it for political reasons.
Brown did his bit to stop the meltdown and that is how history will remember him.
As for the chants of the economicaly ultra thick "walking economomic desaster area" carry on looking at the pictures in the Daly Mail
Brown should have nationalised the lot in 2008 that was his mistake. As for "scavenging for fire wood" Mr Posh and Mr Pledge have'nt finnished yet. Don't forget Cutting dos'ent work Thatcher left office with a greater deficit than when she started. Learn the lesons from history.
@union steve
Before 2008 and the banking crisis Labour borrowed £350Bn but did not invest the money and now our kids have to pay for it e.g. through cuts to public sector pensions. Does Brown lay claim to the good times before 2008 and how did he achieve them?
Brown exposed the UK tax payer to unlimited liability of the losses accrued by UK banks from 2008. Whilst in the Treasury he eroded the provisions of the UK and took no steps to manage the capital adequacy of the banks.
"stopping the meltdown": He borrowed enormous amounts of money from each UK working family which 2 generations of our kids will have to repay though higher taxes and less state support. He and his family are living comfortably.
Gordon Brown played his hand in 2008, and Osborne made himself look the fool he is.
Osborne criticised the G20 summit, and it's effectiveness.Pure genius.
Lagarde and credit rating agencies are supposed to have criticised public sector pensions, yet Inbrew still can't provide evidence.
@Indu Pendant
Oh please spare us the sanctimonious claptrap. You seriously think the Tories would have done more to shackle the banks?
The Tories had 18 years to do something about it. Heck it was the Tories who introduced The Big Bang of deregulation.
Gordon Brown....mmmmmm...lets see how the current lot perform before making 100 years of judgement....my guess judging on performance so for is that GB will be viewed more sympathetically in the future..
Des you're right... the Tories would have had to borrow to bail the banks just like Labour would need to do what the Tories are doing now. However, having Brown at the helm is a big no no... I mean heres a man who went against Darling and even said the recession would last 6 months! and a man who sold off our gold at record low prices and all the boom/bust comments etc...
hahahaah the same guys who think Brown did his bit by spending 200 billion of their money on the banks are the ones who are upset about the bankers getting state money- u can't write this stuff!!!
Des demona
u call it sanctimonious claptrap but it's exactly what happened- nothing Indu wrote u can argue with, and indeed it's u who needs to spare the sanctimonious claptrap of 'You seriously think the Tories would have done more to shackle the banks?'- what, so u re saying its ok Brown messed up cos the tories would have as well- I am sick of moronic tossers who defend a man who lied cheated conspired against his country and fellow colleagues being hailed as a saviour- the economic waste, the disdain shown for the resources that rightfully was to be invested for future generations, spent shamelessly on vote buying- ok i get it it's politics, but that maniac took it too far, read no warning signs- and u, miserable grubby cheerleaders that can't even read... patheitic. The fact he's your poster boy says it all...
i still can't stop laughing... so many levels.. it's a LEADERSHIP crisis now..hahaha oh no hehe a debt crisis hoho yes he's the man lol.
This is a game of brinkmanship. germany holds the cards. The situation is worse, way worse... Adults only, please. By that I mean open minded, intelligent, knowledgeable and wordly wise people...
@matt
Foxy, so the IQ of foxes is only 40. I've explained it 3 times. Get with the program.
BTW Gordon Brown was instrumental in borrowing the £350Bn before 2008 and the banking crises. Back in 2002 following the dot com bust when credit started to rocket, he did not take the difficult decision to tighten the capital banks need to hold in reserve, not because he did not think it was necessary, but because he did not want to take an unpopular step. His greed to gain power was immense.
I do not think enough people realise how serious this crisis is, and how hard it is going to hit us. This is far worse than the banking crisis of 2008. France is in danger of being picked off by the markets in the coming weeks and months. All bets are now off.......
unfortunately Gorgon Brown,although dubious about the €uro would still have sanctioned Quantative easing,
he made two errors,not having an election after being leader,not having an EU referndum,probably another was having Alaistair Darling as chancellor and bailout of 'Toilet currency' the €
It shouldn't be forgotton that it was Brown and Darling who, having lost the General Election, signed the UK up to contribute towards propping up the Euro. Not in the single currency, but landed with the costs of supporting it. Gee, thanks Brown and Darling.
Whether he would save the Euro is debatable (I don't think anyone can save it). But one thing is certain - he would have finished the job he had almost completed of completely bankrupting and destroying the UK.
Leave him in Kirkcaldy: it's safer for everyone.