Who still thinks Britain should join the euro?

Ashdown, Heseltine, Blair and others are rallying to the euro's defence.

Paddy Ashdown has a thoughtful piece in today's Times (£) making the counterintuitive argument that Britain would be better off if it had joined the euro. He argues that joining the single currency would have forced Britain, like Germany, to improve its economic competitiveness and maintain fiscal discipline since it would no longer have been able to devalue its currency or borrow to maintain living standards.

The weakness of Ashdown's argument is that the Stability and Growth Pact, which prohibits eurozone members from running deficits larger than 3 per cent, was repeatedly flouted by France, Germany and other European Union members, who went unpunished by the EU. There would have been nothing to stop Britain doing the same (or worse). But Ashdown's piece remains an important corrective to those who simply indulge in the politics of Schadenfreude.

Ashdown is one of several British europhiles who have rallied to the single currency's defence in recent days. Michael Heseltine declared yesterday that Britain would be forced to abandon the pound and join the euro "faster than people think". I've compiled a list below of prominent figures who continue to argue that the UK could join the euro. Do let me know of any I've missed.

'If you're looking at the very long term and assume the euro stabilises, we should certainly always keep the option open of doing it".

Tony Blair, 13 November 2011

"I think we will join the euro. I think the chances are the euro will survive because the determination, particularly of the French and the Germans, is to maintain the coherence that they've created in Europe."

Michael Heseltine, 20 November 2011

"So should Britain join the euro now? Of course not. But we should not exclude the possibility. This is what separates us from the eurosceptics. We still say that if it becomes in Britain's interest to join we should. They say that even if it were in Britain's interest to join we shouldn't.This could -- sooner than we think -- become much more than just an academic question."

Paddy Ashdown, 21 November 2011 (£)

"If and when the economic circumstances were right and to Britain's advantage, we should certainly consider doing so [joining the euro]."

Peter Mandelson, 14 November 2011

Certainly nothing is going to happen in the next decade but I find never say never in politics is a very good rule

"He [David Cameron] should say that while it was right for Britain not to join the single currency as it was previously constructed, if Germany were to act responsibly, Britain would peg sterling to a reformed euro and in the long run even consider joining the regime."

Will Hutton, 13 November 2011

"Certainly nothing is going to happen in the next decade but I find never say never in politics is a very good rule."

Ken Clarke, 25 July 2011

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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