GDP figures offer little relief for Osborne

Growth of 0.5 per cent in Q3 was less than half of what Osborne needed to meet the OBR's forecasts.

The number crunchers at the ONS have just announced that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, a better-than-expected figure but still a sluggish one. In the last 12 months, the economy has grown by just 0.5 (-0.5 per cent in Q4, 0.4 per cent in Q1, 0.1 per cent in Q2 and 0.5 per cent in Q3) and Osborne has no hope of meeting the OBR's forecast for 2011 growth (1.7 per cent), with deleterious consequences for his borrowing targets. Over the same period, the US grew by 1.6 per cent. Britain is still in the growth slow lane.

In political terms, today's figures will change little. George Osborne will continue to stand by his deficit reduction plan and Labour will (rightly) continue to argue that the government is cutting "too far, too fast". In the last year, 240,000 public-sector jobs have been lost and 264,000 private-sector jobs have been created, a net increase of just 24,000. Worse, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has predicted that 610,000 public-sector jobs will be lost by 2016, 210,000 more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Attention will now move swiftly to 29 November and the Chancellor's autumn statement (the equivalent of the old pre-Budget report). In some respects, the government has already adopted a plan B in the form of credit easing, accelerated deregulation and more quantitative easing by the Bank of England (described by Osborne in 2009 as "the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed"). The question remains whether it will change course again by temporarily slowing the cuts or offering further fiscal stimulus (a plan C, if you like). Today's figure was not bad enough to force a change of direction but nor was it good enough to offer any hope that Osborne will meet his deficit reduction targets. The government has already been forced to announce £44.5bn of extra borrowing due to lower growth and higher unemployment. Expect Osborne to announce billions more when he delivers his statement later this month.

And there's every reason to fear that the fourth quarter will be worse. The most recent Bank of England minutes revealed that the Monetary Policy Committee believes growth will be close to zero in the final three months of the year. But so managed have our expectations become that some growth, any growth will be welcomed.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Is the French Left having its Jeremy Corbyn moment?

Benoit Hamon won the first round of the Socialist party's presidential primaries. 

Has the French Left taken a Corbynite turn? That's certainly the verdict of many after the first round of the French Socialist Party's primary.

In first place is Benoit Hamon, who quit Francois Hollande's government over its right turn in 2014, and counts the adoption of a universal basic income, the legalisation of cannabis and the right to die among his policy proposals, with 36 per cent of the vote.

In second place and facing an uphill battle to secure the nomination is Manuel Valls, the minister who more than any other symbolized the rightward lurch of Hollande's presidency, with 31 per cent. That of the five eliminated candidates - under the French system, if no candidate secures more than half of the vote, the top two go through to a run-off round - only one could even arguably be said to be closer to Valls than Hamon shows the struggle he will have to close the gap next weekend. And for a variety of reasons, even supporters of his close ally Sylvia Pinel may struggle to put a tick in his box. 

Still, Valls clearly believes that electability is his best card, and he's compared Hamon to Corbyn, who "chose to remain in opposition". Also making the Hamon-Corbyn comparison is most of the British press and several high-profile activists in the French Republican Party.

Is it merited? The differences are probably more important than the similarities: not least that Hamon served as a minister until 2014, and came up through the backrooms. In terms of the centre of gravity and the traditions of his party, he is much closer in analogue to Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham than he is to Jeremy Corbyn, though Corbynistas and Hamonites bear a closer resemblance to one another than their leaders to.

What will give heart to the leader's office is that Hamon surged in the polls after each debate, when his ideas were given a bigger platform. But what will alarm everyone in Labour is the French Socialists' poll ratings - they are expected to get just 6 per cent in the elections. (And before you scoff at the polls, it's worth noting that they have, so far, performed admirably in the French electoral cycle, picking up on the lightning rise of both Hamon and Francois Fillon.)

That attests to something it's easy to forget in Westminster, where we tend to obsess over the United States and ignore politics on the Continent, despite the greater commonalities: throughout Europe, social democratic parties are in a fight for their lives, no matter if they turn to the left or the right.

The Democrats, in contrast, won the presidential election by close to three million votes and lost due to the electoral college. They have good prospects in the midterm elections and their greatest threat is gerrymandering and electoral malfeasance. But absent foul play, you'd have to be very, very brave to bet on them going extinct.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.