The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Economic confidence at its lowest since the financial crash

Polls show increasing public discomfort with the economy -- but Labour is not capitalising on this opportunity.

By Samira Shackle Published 22 November 2011 10:03

Two polls today show that the public is increasingly pessimistic about the economy. A Guardian/ICM poll found economic confidence at its lowest level since just before the financial crash in 2008. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents said they were not confident about the state of the economy, while 42 per cent did, giving a net confidence index of -15 points. Since ICM began measuring financial confidence in 2001, it has only been lower once (July 2008).

A Times/Populus poll (£) has similarly poor results, with 79 per cent of voters saying they believe the country will fare "badly" over the next year, versus only 18 per cent who think it will do "well". This gives a net optimism score of -61, a 21 point drop since September. While the questions and indexes are slightly different in each poll, this too is the lowest score Populus has found since the time of the banking crisis, in January 2009.

There are clear reasons for this: unemployment is steadily increasing, growth predictions are constantly lowered, and the eurozone crisis is unsettling markets. All of this would appear to be bad news for the government and its austerity package, and a blessing for Labour.

However, this is not the case. The ICM poll found that 30 per cent still blame the slowdown on debts accrued by Labour, with only 24 per cent blaming the coalition's spending cuts. Meanwhile, the Populus survey found that 40 per cent of people trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to run the economy, while just 26 per cent said they had more faith in Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.

While both polls saw Labour keep its narrow lead (two points ahead with ICM and eight with Populus), these results on the economy show the extent to which the party is missing an open goal. Yesterday, Cameron admitted that the government may not reach its deficit reduction targets, telling the CBI conference that "getting debt under control is proving harder than anyone envisaged", partly because of sluggish growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its forecast -- again -- next week, when Osborne makes his Autumn Statement.

The coalition's narrative that Labour's profligacy is entirely to blame for this crisis should not hold for much longer: their policies are doing little to help the recovery; indeed, are compounding the problem. As Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman put it: "Austerity in Britain is going really, really badly." Labour must step up its visibility and present a clear, thought out alternative strategy if it wants to seize the opportunity of growing public discomfort with the way the economy is headed.

Tags: British economy Economy Polls

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8 comments

Tue, 2011-11-22 23:58 — Awake!

do peolle really think cameron and osborne, merkel, sarkozy, obama don;t get that austerity and cuts put the economy at risk??
Do some of the commenters above REALLY believe that ALL those people mentioned haven't spotted what they know??? Gosh folks, balls must be right- I get it now!! duh!!
The egos are indeed large here...

Wed, 2011-11-23 01:07 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Nah I just think they're far too worried/constrained by what the wealthiest people think to contemplate putting the worlds resources to better use. Some of us don't necessarily believe that those holding prominent political positions have the best interests of ordinary people as their top priority.

Tue, 2011-11-22 10:47 — swatantra nandanwar

The fact is nobody is trusting nobody.
In Spain thy've just voted out a Govt which wasn't responsible for the crisis and voted in a Govt that is going to impose even more savage austerity on te public. Gluttons for punishment, just like the Briish Public, which implies that even the public don't know what the hell they want, and are as confused as everybody else about the economic conditions, who is responsible and what to do about it.
The fact is that its only the West which is in crisis and not the East which is growing at 7%.
Time I think for a Govt of National Unity.

Tue, 2011-11-22 10:57 — stephenH (not verified)

"However, this is not the case. The ICM poll found that 30 per cent still blame the slowdown on debts accrued by Labour, with only 24 per cent blaming the coalition's spending cuts"

I believe that has reduced from 50% in 2010 and 40% about 6months ago.

Tue, 2011-11-22 12:16 — Stu (not verified)

Samira, stop being a sh1tstirer! at a time of crisis you're telling Labour to take advantage of it and play some political games and score some points?! Swatantra is correct, we need a unity in govt now.

1)Labour CANNOT deny their part in the crisis
2) Labour so far has no credible policy for economic recovery or growth
3) Labour wouldn't have faired much better if they were in power

It's a bloody miracle that the UK aren't in deeper sh!t than the PIGS after all the austerity cuts the Tories are imposing and as we see the globe close to meltdown we should be unified in finding a solution and saving the UK first!

Tue, 2011-11-22 13:57 — Sam (not verified)

How can Labour take advantage though?

No government can stop us from facing a difficult time in the next few years. Neither governments committed to austerity nor spending governments like the US.

We could spend more money but how much would we get for it? The US is coming under increasing pressure from the markets precisely because their spending isn't giving them the growth they need to justify their deficit.

Because most people recognise there are serious problems with no easy answers, Labour are going to have to try a lot harder if it wants to be listened to.

Tue, 2011-11-22 16:10 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

The conditions would be difficult for anyone, that much is true. The question is , do we have the best people available taking the lead? The answer has to be an emphatic no. Part of the problem was that Osborne and Cameron thought they had a golden opportunity to further advance the cause of Thatcherite economics.
They were of course wrong on so many levels. Their selfish class driven policies have made things worse than they needed to be. The fact that they were so consumed by the Blairite tactic of presentation above substance says alot about them. Osborne, a man totally unqualified to run an economy is so far out his depth it's scary he's still in position.
At least Balls and Milliband understand economics. Osborne clearly doesn't and Cameron appears not to either.
The idea that after the monumental failure of the neo liberal era what need is a further lurch to the right beggars belief. Utter madness. The public has to be made aware that there are alternatives to all the pain being lopped on the poorest.
We know this doesn't work and it's proved again that it doesn't. Time for a real change.