It's not just the eurozone that could push the UK back into recession

The NIESR predicts a 70% chance of recession if the eurozone crisis is not solved -- and a 50% chanc

Most of this morning's papers reported on the latest study from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The figure they've chosen to lead on is that the UK has a 70 per cent chance of recession if policymakers fail to resolve the eurozone crisis. What gained less attention was the prediction that there is around a 50 per cent chance of a recession even if the crisis is successfully resolved.

Interestingly, the focus on the eurozone plays into the government's new emphasis on global factors in the UK's sluggish growth. When confronted with growth of just 0.5 per cent in the last 12 months at PMQs yesterday, Cameron responded that any growth was good amid the "global storm in the world economy". This is an important shift, given that in opposition Cameron slammed Gordon Brown for making the same argument, and that the coalition has repeatedly refused to acknowledge the role of the banking crash in creating the deficit, instead blaming Labour's spending.

The NIESR warned that the economy was in for the slowest recovery in 100 years, and that UK fiscal policy was "too tight" in the short-term. While the eurozone crisis is a concern, the fact that there is a 50 per cent chance of falling back into recession regardless shows that the problem is not just global, but that our leaders are not dealing with it in the right way. If global factors created the crisis, George Osborne's aggressive deficit reduction strategy has ensured we will not be the first out of it.

 

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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David Cameron is enlisting a tactic from a Private Eye cartoon to get young people to vote

CringeyMcCringeFace. 

Your mole was heartened to learn last week David Cameron is concerned about the youth vote in the upcoming EU referendum – so much so that he has recruited some bona fide yoof experts to get them to the polling station.

We waited with baited breath to see what the experts – Facebook, Uber, a brand called Snap Fashion, and purveyors of blokey news The Lad Bible – would come up with in their brainstorming session. A sophisticated Facebeook ad campaign? Polling station Ubers? Get the lads out on the doorsteps?

Instead, the wise millennial prophets (specifically the founder of Snap Fashion) came up with "VoteyMcVoteFace", a campaign in which young people would share pictures of their "vote face" on social media, which launched over the weekend. Because the young love selfies, you see. And they all wanted that boat to have that silly name

According to the Financial Times, a source said David Cameron was pleased with the idea. "The PM believes it is essential that we all do everything we can to encourage more young people to register to vote in a referendum that will have such a huge impact on their future."

He may be less pleased to know that the idea was in fact touted before - according to James Cook's Twitter feed, in Private Eye:

Great minds think alike. Your mole would have opted for Quiet Millennial Batpeople, personally. 

I'm a mole, innit.