Osborne squeezes benefits again

Benefits will not be raised in line with September inflation in order to cut fuel duty.

It is indicative of George Osborne's political beliefs that when forced to choose between squeezing the rich and squeezing the poor, he squeezes the poor. Having already cut welfare payments by uprating benefits in line with the Consumer Price Index rather than the (generally higher) Retail Price Index (see James Plunkett's Staggers blog on the coalition's "£11bn stealth cut"), a move that cost families hundreds of pounds a year, he has changed the rules again.

I speculated last month that higher-than-expected inflation meant benefit payments would not be uprated in line with September's figures (when CPI inflation stood at 5.2 per cent) but a lower set of figures. Today's Times (£) confirms that Osborne is planning to do just this. Rather than increasing benefits in line with September inflation (as is traditional), he will increase them in line with a six month average (currently 4.5 per cent). Osborne has wisely exempted pensioners' benefits from the move - no government can afford to alienate the grey vote - but the policy change will still save the government around £1bn a year.

The money will reportedly be used to scrap the planned 3p rise in fuel duty this January, a populist measure that makes a mockery of the government's claim to be the "greenest ever". Moreover, it will do nothing to help the poorest, many of whom cannot afford to use a car. It is they who will suffer most from a real-terms cut in benefits. Those receiving disability benefits, carer's allowance, income support and jobseeker's allowance, will lose £50 to £100 a year. As Alison Graham, the chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, points out:

Increasing benefits below inflation will mean even more poor families having to choose between heating and eating. The costs of heating and electricity have gone up well ahead of inflation, with electricity up by around 10 per cent and gas up by around 15 per cent, so the Government should consider above-inflation increases to protect the health and well-being of children.

With unemployment at a 17-year high, the government should be increasing, not reducing benefits, a policy for which there is an economic as well as a moral case. Low earners spend a greater proportion of their disposable income than high earners and stimulate growth as a result. Once again, Osborne has adopted a policy that is neither economically wise nor socially just.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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