The tuition fees effect

University applications plummet by 9 per cent after fee cap is raised to £9,000.

The biggest test of the coalition's decision to raise the tuition fee cap to £9,000 is whether it leads to fewer people applying to university. Despite abolishing Labour's target of sending 50 per cent of young people to university, ministers are insistent that they still want more to go.

But the figures published by UCAS today suggest that fewer will do so. Compared with the same period last year, total applications are down by 9 per cent, with applications from UK residents down by 11.9 per cent and applications from EU residents down by 9.3 per cent (applications from non-EU residents are up by 8.8 per cent).

Fees rise, applications fall

Applications are down by 9 per cent compared to last year 

(Click graph to enlarge)

It's important to note that these are interim figures and only cover applications to Oxbridge, medicine, dentistry and veterinary science, which must be received by 15 October. As Nicola Dandridge, the chief executive of Universities UK, points out:

Historically, the application figures at the end of October have proven to be unreliable indicators of the final numbers. It may also be that students are taking longer this year to consider their options.

But the figures do suggest that the fees rise is deterring at least some prospective students from applying (47 of England's 123 universities plan to charge £9,000 for all courses). As the graph above shows, this is the first time that applications have fallen in the last five years.

The only comfort for ministers is that student numbers also fell when fees were raised to £3,000-a-year in 2006 but recovered in subsequent years. But if there is a sustained fall in applications (particularly from poorer pupils) then the policy will be viewed as a failure. As Steve Smith, the recently departed head of Universities UK, told me when I interviewed him earlier this year, "If lower socio-economic class participation goes down, we've made a major mistake".

Update: A commenter (The Law) asks why applications to Scottish universities are also down (by 11.8 per cent) if higher fees are deterring pupils. The likely explanation is that English, Welsh and Northern Irish students, unlike their Scottish and EU counterparts, all pay full fees at Scottish universities.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Green party calls on Labour, Lib Dems, and Plaid Cymru to form a "progressive alliance" next election

Will Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Leanne Wood agree to meet for talks?

The Green party leadership have called upon Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru to work together to challenge the Tories at the next election. In an open letter, the Green leaders stress the exceptional circumstances occassioned by the vote to leave the EU:

“In a spirit of openness and transparency, we are writing to you as leaders of parties which oppose Brexit, to invite you to a cross-party meeting to explore how we best rise to the challenge posed by last week’s vote to Leave the EU.  

“We have a UK Government in chaos, an economy facing a crisis and people up and down the country facing serious hardship. There is an urgent need to make a stand against any austerity and the slashing of environmental legislation, human and workers’ rights, that may come with Brexit. 

“With the growing likelihood of an early General Election, the importance of progressive parties working together to prevent the formation of a Tory-UKIP-DUP government that would seek to enact an ultra-right Brexit scenario is ever more pressing.

Caroline Lucas shot down a rumour that she would be joining Corbyn’s shadow cabinet. But her party has decided to call for a progressive alliance and an early general election. 

Key to such cross-party talks would be the demand for electoral reform, as the leader Natalie Bennett added in a statement:

“Central to such a progressive alliance would be a commitment to proportional elections for the House of Commons and an elected second chamber.”

The call for a more plural politics follows a post-referendum surge in Green party membership, with up to 50 people joining per hour.

Here’s the letter in full:

Open letter to: Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron, Leanne Wood on behalf of Green Party of England and Wales,

In a spirit of openness and transparency, we are writing to you as Leaders of parties which oppose Brexit, to invite you to a cross-party meeting to explore how we best rise to the challenge posed by last week’s vote to Leave the EU.  

Britain is in crisis and people are scared about the future. Never have we had a greater need for calm leadership to be shown by politicians.  

We have a UK Government in chaos, an economy facing a crisis and people up and down the country facing serious hardship. There is an urgent need to make a stand against any austerity and the slashing of environmental legislation, human and workers’ rights, that may come with Brexit. 

With the growing likelihood of an early General Election, the importance of progressive parties working together to prevent the formation of a Tory-UKIP-DUP government that would seek to enact an ultra-right Brexit scenario is ever more pressing.

This is an opportunity to recognise that a more plural politics is in both the Left’s electoral and political interests. This crisis exposes the absurdity of our first past the post electoral system.  Just 24 per cent of those eligible to vote elected the government that called the referendum. The only fair way to proceed is to have a proportional voting system where people can back the politicians who they believe in, rather than taking a gamble and not knowing who they will end up with.  

The idea of a progressive alliance has been floated for several years, and proposals have once again been put forward in the context of the current crisis.  We believe that the time has come to urgently consider such ideas together in the context of a Westminster Government. We recognise the very different political situation in Scotland, given the strongly pro-EU majority there. We hope that co-operation between progressive parties their can ensure that this mandate is respected, and we will support them to keep all options open.

We look forward to your response,

Natalie Bennett, Leader of The Green Party of England and Wales

Steven Agnew MLA, Leader of the Green Party of Northern Ireland

Alice Hooker-Stroud, Leader of Wales Green Party

Caroline Lucas, MP for Brighton Pavilion

India Bourke is the New Statesman's editorial assistant.