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The tuition fees effect

University applications plummet by 9 per cent after fee cap is raised to £9,000.

By George Eaton Published 24 October 2011 13:04

The biggest test of the coalition's decision to raise the tuition fee cap to £9,000 is whether it leads to fewer people applying to university. Despite abolishing Labour's target of sending 50 per cent of young people to university, ministers are insistent that they still want more to go.

But the figures published by UCAS today suggest that fewer will do so. Compared with the same period last year, total applications are down by 9 per cent, with applications from UK residents down by 11.9 per cent and applications from EU residents down by 9.3 per cent (applications from non-EU residents are up by 8.8 per cent).

Fees rise, applications fall

(Click graph to enlarge)

It's important to note that these are interim figures and only cover applications to Oxbridge, medicine, dentistry and veterinary science, which must be received by 15 October. As Nicola Dandridge, the chief executive of Universities UK, points out:

Historically, the application figures at the end of October have proven to be unreliable indicators of the final numbers. It may also be that students are taking longer this year to consider their options.

But the figures do suggest that the fees rise is deterring at least some prospective students from applying (47 of England's 123 universities plan to charge £9,000 for all courses). As the graph above shows, this is the first time that applications have fallen in the last five years.

The only comfort for ministers is that student numbers also fell when fees were raised to £3,000-a-year in 2006 but recovered in subsequent years. But if there is a sustained fall in applications (particularly from poorer pupils) then the policy will be viewed as a failure. As Steve Smith, the recently departed head of Universities UK, told me when I interviewed him earlier this year, "If lower socio-economic class participation goes down, we've made a major mistake".

Update: A commenter (The Law) asks why applications to Scottish universities are also down (by 11.8 per cent) if higher fees are deterring pupils. The likely explanation is that English, Welsh and Northern Irish students, unlike their Scottish and EU counterparts, all pay full fees at Scottish universities.

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Tags: tuition fees

More from George Eaton

View the discussion thread.

13 comments

Mon, 2011-10-24 13:30 — John (not verified)

Make the tuition fees infinite, drop the payment threshold to £7k per year, write off the remaining 'debt' at age 65, force on every adult in the country with immediate effect = income tax.

Suddenly this 'debt' doesn't seem like such a terrible burden anymore. Tuition fees are such a bogus issue created by stupid governments who should have simply renamed it a 'capped graduate tax' or suchlike (that's what it is) and opportunistic oppositions claim that fees are ruining the life chances of the young. They are the people really to blame, not the reality of fees.

Imagine if the terms of a mortgage were that pleasant; would the left be whining about their ruining the poor's chances of owning a home?

Mon, 2011-10-24 14:07 — The Law (not verified)

If it is because of the fee increase why are Scottish applications also down? How come applications by 18 year olds for courses with a 15 October deadline are up 1.1%?

It is also worth noting that there was a significant spike last year due to people wanting to get in before the fees came in. If you compare to previous years this isn't much of a change.

The New Statesman used to read behind the hype. This type of story is sadly the reason that I cancelled my subscription.

Mon, 2011-10-24 14:49 — joetheplumber

Without equality society will always be divided. Marxism is the only decent and coherent socio-economic creed. It is the only from of democracy.

Mon, 2011-10-24 14:57 — damianneum

On the fall in Scottish applications, it's worth remembering that English, Welsh and Northern Irish students all pay full fees.

There was not a "spike" last year. In fact, applications went up by just 2.1% (some mistakenly assumed that fees had already gone up).

I did note that these are only interim figures but it seems clear that at least some prospective students are being deterred by the fees rise.

Mon, 2011-10-24 16:07 — The Law (not verified)

Hi George. Thanks for your reply. I was referring to Scottish residents attending Scottish HEIs who pay zero fees - this group is down 10.2%.

Regarding the statistics, the October on October comparison shows a 4.2% increase from 2010 to 2011. http://www.ucas.ac.uk/about_us/media_enquiries/media_releases/2010/20111025

Mon, 2011-10-24 17:23 — Stu (not verified)

would be interesting to know what they have decided to do... apply for jobs, apprenticeships etc...

Mon, 2011-10-24 18:05 — Adam (not verified)

"The biggest test of the coalition's decision to raise the tuition fee cap to £9,000 is whether it leads to fewer people applying to university."

Um, why? I can think of a few bigger tests, such as whether it leads to better or worse quality education, or whether it creates a sustainable model of education capable of competing with the American system.

But if we're worried about social justice and distribution of education, I still don't see why number of applicants is the key test, surely we should be more concerned with whether it discourages people from particular demographics from applying, or whether it changes the distribution of people entering university.

Mon, 2011-10-24 21:02 — Flashbuck (not verified)

So there's fewer taking up useless artsy fartsy so-called degrees? Brilliant!

Mon, 2011-10-24 21:22 — P (not verified)

@Flashbuck
No... there's fewer applying to Oxbridge and taking up medicine, dentistry and veterinary science

Mon, 2011-10-24 21:43 — Eddy S (not verified)

we should charge full fees for all the arty farty degrees and waiver all fees for engineering/engineering design degrees, these are the skills we need to be world class and compete in the global economy, we need to think of how we are going to create the next apple and also a centre for start-ups.

vocational courses should not be sniffed at either and are worth far more than the arty farty ones to the economy.

Mon, 2011-10-24 23:31 — Flashbuck (not verified)

You're talking rubbish. All reports in the quality newspapers state the opposite to what you're saying. Stop making up stuff you loser.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8846236/Univers...

Tue, 2011-10-25 01:27 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

@george

Please could you confirm applications to degrees which improve job prospects the most -- engineering, law, business studies, oxbridge etc have seen an increase in demand?

The drop is applications has hit the lower tier (the old poly technics) colleges and weaker degrees.

Tue, 2011-10-25 01:30 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

@george

Do you think that private sector Unversities have a place in the UK if they can offer much better value for money or would you obstruct them on principle?