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Hollande wins

How centrist will the French Socialist candidate be?

The headline in this morning's Le Monde read: "Triomphe de la gauche réaliste" (Triumph of the realist left). That was how France's newspaper of record greeted François Hollande's victory over Martine Aubry in the second and decisive round of yesterday's socialist primary. Hollande won with nearly 57 per cent, on a turnout - remarkable for an election of this sort - of 2,860,000 (an increase of 8 per cent on the 2,661,231 who voted in the first round).

As for Hollande's "realism", it's certainly true that he tacked to the centre against Aubry and the left-wing Arnaud Montebourg in the campaign leading up to the first round of voting. And he belongs to a generation of Socialist politicians scarred by the electoral beating the Socialists took when François Mitterand's government turned to austerity early in 1983, abandoning the Keynesian economic activism of 110 Propositions pour la France, the programme on which Mitterand had run and won two years earlier.

Nevertheless, as I wrote last week, Hollande couldn't ignore the surge of enthusiasm for Montebourg, stoked by his fulminations against globalisation and his calls for much tighter state supervision of the banking sector. And indeed he didn't. Between the first and second rounds, Hollande made a number of public entreaties (especially on financial policy) to Montebourg and his supporters, most of whom would, it was assumed, vote for the more left-leaning Aubry second time around. It seems to have worked: last week, Montebourg endorsed Hollande as the candidate most able to build a winning coalition against Nicolas Sarkozy in next year's presidential election.

Hollande has said he won't throw himself into campaigning straight away. For one thing, the organisational apparatus of the PS, of which Aubry is first secretary, needs overhauling. Hollande's first act as presidential candidate is likely to be to attend today's commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the police massacre of Algerians demonstrating in Paris.

6 comments

Zadoc's picture

I think Mr. Sarkozy will be spending his last year as president of France.

POLL: Can François Hollande and the socialist party defeat UMP and President Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 presidential election?
Vote: http://www.wepolls.com/p/4014065

maxinemf's picture

The key question for me is where does he stand on Israel. Will Hollande like all other French presidents defend Israel no matter what?????

Daniele1's picture

maxinemf:
As opposed to..?
Name me one British prime minister, no,name one western leader who hasn't or is not now supporting Israel?
Apparently even Mme Lepenn, leader of the French Fascist party, is now defending the Jews and Israel and some of them have started voting for her! Every one united against the new enemy, the Muslims.
If the French Jews fall for Lepenn, they will deserve everything they get,as the racist NF is obviously as anti-Semitic as it has always been.
But Mme Lepenn is a brilliant liar and very persuasive.

swatantra's picture

Mention of 1983? Longest suicide note in history? Msr Hollande is an Party aparatchik with no charisma at all; but it was an Open Primary so he must have some appeal with the General public and not just his loyal PS. But I fear that if Mde Le Penn the Facist runs, then it'll be a re-run of 20 years ago, where socalists had to hold their nose and vote for Chirac the Crook in the 2nd round to keep the Facist out.

DK's picture

It was in 2002, not 20 years ago, that LePen beat out Jospin for the right to run against Chirac. And clearly, the Socialist Party and its supporters have learned nothing since. That Montebourg supported Hollande rather than Aubry shows that personal ambition drives all the major socialist players far more than principle, that every stance has to be read above all as cynical and tactical until proven otherwise. The French probably deserve better than this, but they're doing little to demonstrate it. I hope the small leftwing parties come forward--5 more years of Sarkozy is a price worth paying for putting the current socialist leadership out of its misery.

swatantra's picture

The French deserve the Govt they voted for, like the British Greeks or Italians. Perhaps next time they might use their vote with a bit more discretion and thought. But thats democracy.
I was reminded of the absolute corruption that ran through Italian politics and still does under the Christiam Democrats in particular Andriotti 11 times PM, but cleared of links with the Mafia and involvment in several murders like the Vatican's Banker.
There was an excellent film about Andriottis rise and fall on Film 4 yesterday.

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