The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Drawing lessons from 15 October 2007

An era before the rise and demise of Cleggmania.

By Jon Bernstein Published 15 October 2011 13:19

Four years ago today Menzies Campbell stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats. Faced with increasingly vicious briefing against him from within his own party and a realisation that his last chance to regain authority as leader went once Gordon Brown decided not to call a snap election (thus depriving him the opportunity to bring his party together in common purpose during a general election campaign), Campbell decided it was time to go.

What really undermined Campbell, however, were the party's dreadful ratings in the opinion polls -- the percentage of voters who said they would vote Lib Dem declined from the mid and high teens earlier in 2007 to the very low teens by the autumn. The final poll conducted prior to Campbell's departure was carried out by BPIX for the Mail on Sunday. The field work was completed on 13 October and showed the following ratings:

Conservative: 41%

Labour: 37%

Liberal Democrats: 11%

(BPIX/Mail on Sunday, 13 Oct 2007)

It's intriguing to compare those numbers with polling today. Take UK Polling Report's most recent average:

Conservative: 37%

Labour: 41%

Liberal Democrats: 10%

(UK Polling Report Average, October 2011)

The numbers are strangely familiar -- an opposition with a four point lead over the governing party and the Liberal Democrats barely above single digits.

Opinion polls need to be treated with caution -- some sensible commentators say they are only worth noting a few months out from the election. Nevertheless, these numbers do suggest there are reasons for hope across all three major parties. Much can change between now and 2015 as it did between 2007 and 2010.

The Conservatives already draw comfort from the fact that they have Labour within touching distance (and almost within the margin for error). Yet for Labour too, for whom conventional wisdom demands a much clearer poll lead, there is room for optimism.

That Tory poll lead in October 2007 was the result of one piece of bold, if contentious, policy making (George Osborne's commitment to an inheritance tax cut) and a jittery response from government (Brown's election that wasn't). Prior to that point the Conservatives were trailing badly to Labour. One piece of bold and coherent thinking -- and the policy details to back it up -- from the Labour leadership this time around could change the game in a similar way.

As for the Lib Dems, mid-term slumps are a regular feature of parliamentary cycle for them. What helped them last time was a change of leader and a bout of Cleggmania. The latter is off the agenda. The former? Unlikely but not impossible.

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Tags: Nick Clegg

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15 comments

Sat, 2011-10-15 14:33 — Dave C (not verified)

"That Tory poll lead in October 2007 was the result of one piece of bold, if contentious, policy making ..."

You have forgotten that from Friday 14 September 2007 onwards, we saw the spectacle of people queuing around the block trying to get their money out of Northern Rock.

A feeling that things are collapsing hardly helped the Government of the day, as Osborne will come to understand.

Sat, 2011-10-15 16:25 — mark j (not verified)

Rise and demise? More like rise then despise!

Sat, 2011-10-15 16:51 — swatantra nandanwar

Highly unlikely. Situation is completely different.
Ming was completely detached from reality and ordinary folk and had to go; he simply could not connect with the man and woman in the street.
Clegg grasped the nettle. Took the difficult step of coming to the aid of a country in crisis; accepted responsibility, even though he knew it would damage the Party, putting the country before Party. History books will be a lot kinder to Clegg than the knockers.

Sat, 2011-10-15 17:30 — gerry (not verified)

Swatantra - Clegg openly and blatantly lied and lied once his party did that deal with the Conservatives in 2010! Before the election, the Lib Dems 100% condemned the Tory austerity plans and rapid deficit reduction by massive public sector job losses..after May 2010 he and Laws and Huhne and Alexander then signed up that plan with even more glee and vigour than many Tories themselves!

The public will never forget this - he put party and the chance to get in a cabinet BEFORE the country..and you know what? The Tory/Lib Dem plan isnt working anyway...

History will say that the Lib Dems helped to destroy the social and economic fabric of the country, much in the same way as Thatcher did in the early 1980s..

Sat, 2011-10-15 18:46 — Mizar (not verified)

swatantra is a Tory or a fool.

Sat, 2011-10-15 20:22 — swatantra nandanwar

I don't think I need any drawing lessons from a pair of blunt pencils.

Sat, 2011-10-15 22:41 — Dickie1

swatantra nandanwar

"History books will be a lot kinder to Clegg than the knockers."

Only if the coalition plan goes well, which it isn't doing. Do you imagine that history books will describe Clegg as the great leader who knew the right path when others doubted him. Truly a man ahead of his time, a visionary thinker able to steer a country through hard times - but always fair to the less fortunate. Perhaps even a Nobel Prize eh?

You are deluded. He is a mere footnote so far as history is concerned.

Sat, 2011-10-15 23:00 — swatantra nandanwar

More than a footnote. Clegg brought about an era of coalition politics, and a realignment on the Parties. He's had an effect on both Tory and Labour. With the Tories he's achieved a working relationship, and with Labour a reexamination of where in the political spectrum they stand. The fulcrum has shifted. He's given his members an experience of Govt, the first time for 70 years. The downside for him is that the Lib Dems are not really a centrist Party but a Party of the Right, more like the old Liberals or Whigs. The members that thought it was a Radical Party discovered they were in the wrong Party and deserted it in droves. But there you go,you can't plaese all of the people all of the time, which is a valyble lesson for Lib Dems.

Sat, 2011-10-15 23:13 — Dickie1

Clegg didn't bring about anything of the sort, it was a hung parliament that that caused it. Okay so the Lib-Dems get a taste of power, but this is the country we're talking about, it isn't work experience. He may be important in Lib-Dem history, but that's all.

Sun, 2011-10-16 09:11 — tuttifrutti (not verified)

Swatantra nandanwar
I tend to view Cleggs actions as selling the country out (and also the ideals of many of his party members) for a taste of power rather than a selfless act in the interests of the country. Maybe I am alone in that...then again maybe not.

Sun, 2011-10-16 09:25 — swatantra nandanwar

I don't think 'a taste for power' or self agrandisement had anything to do with it: Its more of what you can do for your country. Ok, it may have been the parliamentary situation that forced his hand, but you don't stand idly by when you can serve the country.
But whatever you or I think, Clegg has changed the way we do politics in Britain.

Sun, 2011-10-16 10:25 — tuttifrutti (not verified)

swatantra
Well, that will be a matter of opinion for all voters come the next election, but perhaps you can say in exactly what way Clegg is serving his country? For the positive anyway, because I am not seeing much good coming from Cleggs involvement but a huge amount of damage due to the support he is giving the Tories.
Clegg has not changed British politics at all, only the way the Lib Dems do their politics.

Sun, 2011-10-16 10:35 — kenelm (not verified)

swatantra was or perhaps is a member of the Labour Party. So why all this crap from him? He should go and join his new friends.

Sun, 2011-10-16 10:51 — Luddite (not verified)

Let's not forget it was just three TV debates that put the Liberal-Democrats in government.. And let's never forget why Labour is languishing in opposition. Ooh let's just remained you about Labour's tax and squandering ways.. Labour's foreign wars.. Labour's insane immigration policy. Labour's dumbing down of our eduction system. Labour's rewarding of the idle and the work-shy at the same time kicking the hard working in the teeth. Labour's love affair with the city of London and Labour's hatred of the blue collar workers.