The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Why Cameron called it right

Ignore today's headlines, the PM was right to take on his backbenchers over Europe.

By George Eaton Published 25 October 2011 12:17

Today's headlines are predictably terrible for David Cameron. "Bloody nose for Cameron", "80 Tories humble Cameron" and so on. Most of the left and the right, albeit for different reasons, believe that the Prime Minister blundered badly by imposing a three-line whip on Conservative backbenchers. Even if it is erroneous to compare last night's vote with the Maastricht rebellion, which was over government legislation, this was still the largest ever Conservative rebellion over Europe.

But for several reasons it was Cameron, not his critics, who called this one right. For a start, the likely consequence of allowing a free vote would have been an even larger rebellion. As John Rentoul noted yesterday, the number of rebels could have exceeded 120, a majority of Tory backbenchers. Today's headlines would have been even worse for the PM.

By refusing to vote in favour of an EU referendum, Cameron has also demonstrated that he has a better grasp of public opinion than his right-wing opponents. British voters might be the most eurosceptic in the EU (54 per cent believe that the UK has "not benefited" from its membership of the EU, more than in any other country) but they are not obsessed with the subject.

Polling by Ipsos-MORI shows that less than half a per cent of voters believe that Europe is the most important issue facing Britain today. When asked to select "other important issues" this figure rises to just 3 per cent. For this reason, Cameron was right to tell his party in 2006 that it had to stop "banging on about Europe". Voters might have shared William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith's euroscepticism but they didn't share their fixation with the subject. They were more interested in hearing how the Tories would improve the NHS than how they would repatriate employment powers from Brussels. True, 70 per cent of voters want a referendum on EU membership, but then the polls invariably show majority support for a referendum on any subject. A long debate over EU membership would have seemed eccentric at a time when there are 2.57m people unemployed and the economy is flat-lining.

Cameron should not be absolved of blame for the rebellion. He pandered to the euro fanatics in his party by withdrawing the Tories from the mainstream European People's Party and forging a sinister alliance with the nationalist right. His aloof and haughty style has alienated many backbenchers. But today my (admittedly low) admiration for him has grown. He has shown that he is prepared to adopt a position - that a referendum on EU membership is not in Britain's interests - and stick to it. It is he, not his opponents, who has demonstrated political strength.

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Tags: David Cameron

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20 comments

Tue, 2011-10-25 12:46 — David (not verified)

This ridiculous episode merely serves to underline one aspect of David Cameron's character: that he is basically incompetent. Imposing a three-line whip on a back bench procedural motion makes him look weak, not strong and decisive. I also get the impression that he did not understand the motion before the House. It called for a referendum "in the next Parliamentary session". We were not going to have to have one within the next six months or so, and even without the whip being applied, was it likely that the motion would be carried? We'll never know now, but all he has served to do is stir up a hornet's nest within his party, and we'll be truly back to the Nasty Party days where the Tories are deeply divided and concerned with infighting while the country burns. Well done Mr. Cameron.

Tue, 2011-10-25 13:07 — PJW (not verified)

The majority would've been bigger without a 3-line whip is not a convincing argument:

1. Some backbenchers angered into rebellion by the heavy-handedness would have voted with the govt if persuasion was the only pressure.

2. John Rentoul is not an authoritative guide to parliamentary numbers. He called the actual vote badly wrong yesterdy. Why assume his "what if" guesses are any better?

Tue, 2011-10-25 13:31 — Paul Hillyard (not verified)

A bizarre article, George.
I cannot for the life of me see how Cameron comes out of this as the strong man, it stretches credulity.

Tue, 2011-10-25 13:51 — frances smith (not verified)

i think the damage cameron has done is to his relationship with his backbenchers. the problem he now has is that with such a large number voting against him once, they may well do it again, because they now see themselves as having nothing to lose. by being so confrontational in his relationship with his own parliamentary party it may briefly make him look strong in the eyes of a few cameron admirers, but at a high cost.

Tue, 2011-10-25 13:53 — lionel (not verified)

"He has shown that he is prepared to adopt a position - that a referendum on EU membership is not in Britain's interests"

In other words, he, just like the rest of the political elite know best and DO NOT CARE what the voters think. They are going to do what THEY want to do regardless of what the electorate want them to do. Dictatorship

Tue, 2011-10-25 14:12 — David (not verified)

For Cameron to do this with what has already been documented to been the most rebellious government back benches for generations, shows just how stupid the man is. He has tried to take on his party, but his party have decided to take him head-on.

As for John Rentoul, I would believe what he'd written if he were to address an envelope.

Tue, 2011-10-25 14:15 — Paul (not verified)

The most politically ill-informed man in the street can grasp the fact that there is nothing credible about Camerons methods. A three line whip; flagrant, blase, blundering and cynical way to force the hands of the back benchers is just another nauseating act from the current government. And that doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of Mr lionels points above concerning the gloomy realism of politicians ignoring the constituents.

Tue, 2011-10-25 14:22 — Tom (not verified)

I agree George I think he made the right calls and looked strong , but those backbenchers will have his head on a silver platter for this

Tue, 2011-10-25 14:37 — David C (not verified)

What about the other 3 line whips, all on a debate requested by electors.
That says a huge amount about the contempt the political classes have for the voters, and precisely why they dont ever want to give a referendum.
Yes, the timing was far from perfect, but it was the only opportunity so far to do this, and if not taken now then might not happen again. How would parliament then be looked at, if, having set up a system to allow public opinion to start a debate in parliament, then parliament shelved that.
Surely people want more democracy, not less, if you want them to be involved at all, which is necessary to give any legitimacy to parliament.
David Cameron is strengthened, not weakend, in Europe, as it emphasises that were more powers to be suggested to be transferred to Europe then the British People would likely vote no.
And if European bureaucrats then had the nerve to demand that we go back and vote again, until we get the answer right (as is the European understanding of democracy) then i suspect the british public would treat it with the contempt it deserved.

Tue, 2011-10-25 14:40 — Malcolm Redfellow

"As John Rentoul noted yesterday, the number of rebels could have exceeded 120, a majority of Tory backbenchers."

Well, Mandy Rice-Davies Applies.

So sum it up: 81 broke the Whip, two voted both ways (apparently, it's a way of "abstaining in person") and another fifteen didn't show. We're two shy of three figures.

Now consider the pay-roll vote (I reckon that's in the mid-60s at least), those who have been discreetly promised promotion in next year's re-shuffle — provided noses are clean, and those whose self-estimation of their own talents convinces them they should be. Oh, and are there any jollies coming up, at the Whips' disposal?

At some point there we came pretty close to half the parliamentary party.

I'm a fan of Mr Rentoul, but I suggest he is setting the bar — let alone any whiff of morality — a trifle too high..

Tue, 2011-10-25 14:52 — Awake!

George i agree- if Europe implodes, which it will next year, he can walk away having done his best to support the ideal blah blah blah and in the meantime he gets the best trading agreements possible with the zone. It was undemocratic but the right thing to do- pesky paradoxes...

Tue, 2011-10-25 15:12 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

This has episode has strengthed Cameron.

Machiavelli rule #1: if you are going to stab someone in the back make sure you kill them.

The Tory rebels have weakened their position by not wounding Cameron. The next Europe issue they complaign about, people will see them as winging moaners and not take them seriously.

The 100 or so Labour Euro sceptics have also weakened themselves by not contesting the issue - Labour has reinforced its public perception as the politically correct biggot friendly party driven by opportunism rather than values.

Tue, 2011-10-25 15:28 — David Lindsay

Tristan Garel-Jones has just told them to join "a little party somewhere that wants to leave the EU". That is the word from the grandees, including Cameron: they can all clear off to UKIP.

Then they can all lose their seats the way the SDP did; large numbers of Labour supporters wholly or broadly agreed with the SDP, just as large numbers of Conservative supporters wholly or broadly agree with UKIP, but voting in this country is tribal.

And the numbers will be made by the Lib Dems, organisationally absorbed into, but ideologically absorbing of, the Tory machine like the Liberal Unionists, Liberal Imperialists and National Liberals before them.

That is what Cameron actively wants to happen.

Tue, 2011-10-25 16:17 — roy little (not verified)

Most people I know do not support the EU. As for trade , we import more from the EU than we export to it. So it is with in their interest even if we came out , to keep a close workingrelationship . As for a vote. I voted for the tories and will not do so ever again. They have not kept their word. I think we will find that at the next election it could go the way of Denmark.

Tue, 2011-10-25 16:42 — martybee (not verified)

Missing punctuation surely.."Why Cameron called it, right."

Tue, 2011-10-25 16:46 — Extranea (not verified)

What a nonsense.

http://bit.ly/rBtdi4

All of this could have been avoided. Where was his political skill this time. Over Liam Fox he played it clever keeping the right of his party sweet. This time he took on a fight that has made him look ridiculous and stirred up a hornets nest.

Not very clever!

Tue, 2011-10-25 16:46 — martybee (not verified)

ooops and mine..Missing punctuation surely.."Why Cameron called it, right?"

Tue, 2011-10-25 18:46 — Hugh Markey (not verified)

Had Cameron any option? He's passionately hoping something will come along - anything. Talk about clutching at straws.
Anyone with the slightest grasp of demographic movements knows that The EU population is moving westwards.
On Europe's soft underbelly, on the North African rim of the MED, a huge build-up of peoples is evident. Turkey with almost 70 million deserves to be in the EU and it is pretty obvious why the Caucasian EU is denying this country entry.
People from as far away as Afghanistan are making it to the most westward countries in the EU.
In addition the Mid-East is more than ready to export its surplus and troublesome populations to the EU.
Some United States civilians claim this situation is not all bad.
The US could do with mass immigration of Western Europeans to counter-balance the HIspanic peoples moving up from Central and South America.
Everybody in the UK senses something is amiss. But what is to be done?
Cameron hasn't a clue; but the big corps want in and the small firms want out.
Guess which side Cameron has come down on? It seems to be a case of 'lie back and think of England!'

Rule Britannia

Wed, 2011-10-26 10:43 — brook boysen (not verified)

Hopeless middle of the road article... Cameron - and Eaton - do not realise that many people in Britain are so hard hit by the financial crisis, followed by IDS's cuts, that their own "houses are on fire" already... Cameron sounds here like Billy Bunter trying to take the stand of a hero. And Eaton approves. Pathetic.