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The end of the Scottish Conservatives?

Leadership favourite Murdo Fraser vows to disband the Scottish Conservatives and set up a new centre

It is the ultimate detoxification strategy. Murdo Fraser, the frontrunner for the leadership of the Scottish Conservatives, has announced that he will disband the party if he wins the contest next month. The Scottish Tories will be replaced by a new centre-right party that will contest all elections north of the border - council, Scottish Parliament and Westminster.

In a relationship analogous to that between the German CDU and the Bavarian CSU, the new party would be affiliated to the Tories and any MPs elected would take the Conservative whip in the Commons. There is also a historical precedent. Until 1965, when they merged with the Conservative Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Tories were a separate party known as the Unionist Party.

It's not hard to see why Fraser believes this dramatic step is necessary. The Tories have not managed to win more than one seat in Scotland for 19 years and have haemorraghed votes to the SNP. Fraser's calculation is that a new party will win the financial support of business leaders reluctant to associate themselves with the Scottish Tories, as well as the electoral support of the country's middle class.

Whether his strategy will succeed is another matter. It may well be dismissed by voters as a cynical rebranding exercise. "Different name, same shit," is one slogan you can imagine doing the rounds. The move also has significant and potentially dangerous implications for the Union. In calling for the creation of a new centre-right party, Fraser has effectively conceded that Scotland is a no-go area for the Conservatives. A separate party for a separate country is the conclusion that some will draw. Michael Forsyth, who served as Scottish Secretary from 1995 to 1997, argued: "I think the strategy is one of appeasement of the nationalists and I think it is one that will fail. Any policy which appeases nationalists is damaging to the union by definition."

But it's worth noting that Fraser enjoys the support of several senior Conservatives at Westminster, including Francis Maude, who has long argued for a breakaway Scottish party. David Cameron was informed of the plan in advance but intends to remain neutral during the contest.

No one doubts Cameron's sincerity when he vows to defend the United Kingdom with "every fibre in my body", but not everyone in his party feels the same way. A 2009 ConservativeHome poll of 144 party candidates found that 46 per cent would not be "uncomfortable about Scotland becoming independent". This laissez faire attitude is hardly surprising. Of the 59 Westminster seats in Scotland that would automatically be lost, 41 are Labour-held but just one is Conservative-held.

But whether Fraser's plan is enacted or not, it's clear that Scottish politics, neglected by Fleet Street for so long, is about to become very interesting indeed.

28 comments

raymond392's picture

The Tories can call themselves whatever they like they will still be Tories, if it looks like a rat, smells like a rat and acts like a rat, its a rat whatever you want to call it. The Scots have nothing in common with the Tories and would never vote for them to represent them, they know nothing of the working class, look at their policies now, on the disabled, the homeless, the sick, the unemployed, council house tenant's welfare payments.Like the LibDems they could hold their next party conference in a telephone box, and still have room. It is a real shame that we could not have got rid of the one Tory MP that we have, the list MSP are a joke and only got there because of the PR and list system in the Scottish Parliament, I look forward to their extinction just like the Dodo.

Stuart Eels's picture

Lox and Ecosseman

I absolutely agree with you both, as an English Nationalist I believe that both countries will benefit and thrive on their own. The UK Parties would also need to rapidly change and hopefully it would be the end of them.

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

I think this may be a good idea, people up in Scotland prehaps feel they have little choice, the middle of the road people who do not like the conservatives who would not wish to vote for Labour so they end up voting for SNP. So in principle it seems like a good idea and this Murdo chap is a decent hard working man who clearly has Scotlands best interests at heart, i understand the fishing industries and countryside issues are very important in Scotland ,yet down hear we give them very little thought! or prehaps the conservatives in Scotland should work harder and not just place a kilt on the westminster manifesto. The Conservatives have changed alot in the past decade and they needed to do so , people in scotland still mention that Margaret Thatcher woman yet all political parties have changed since her day, even Labour are completely different and prehaps that is the reason people chose to vote for the SNP or this could just represent the decline of Left Wing goverments in the whole europe these days , so yes Scotland and even we in England need more choice then the usual two or if not break away completely have some kind of annex to the main party's that concentrates on the local issues.

Lox's picture

Swatandra, your post was just as clueless second time round. You really don't know what you're on about, do you?

Alexander Mitchell's picture

The Scots Parliament is odd in that out of the 5 groups and 1 independent sitting in it, only one can truly be said to be centre-right. All the others, be it the Greens, Labour, SNP, LibDem or Margo MacDonald all position themselves on the centre-left or centre of the spectrum. Its odd that this is the case.

I'm a Scot by the way. The Tories up here brought this up at the beginning of their review process a year ago, and Annable Goldie didn't sound too opposed to it, but they did say in passing that the Scottish Progressive Party or the Progressive & Unionist Party would be there name (tapping the historic link from the 1930s-50s in which theirs was the more dominant party in Scotland as they were the Unionist Party).

If it succeeds in successfully creating a centre-right block in Scotland then it'll have two likely consequences;
1. The further demise of the LibDems/SNP rural seats. As many of those seats, out with the Inverness/Sutherland area were historically blue. Most likely Perthshire, North-Fife and the Borders, where most 'list' MSP tories come from.
2. The improvement in the number of blue patches on the westminster electoral map out with the borders and a shot in the arm to Unionism.

If it fails, which if it's not done properly it may well, it will be a shot in the arm of Salmond who'll play it as even the Tories don't want a UK anymore as they are now no longer that in Scotland....

Unionism is kind of a dead word though, it should be devolutionism vs independence. The idea that power in Scotland is good within the Union framework. Hopefully Ed Miliband and UK wide Labour catch onto this as Welsh and Scottish Labour are much more different in attitude to UK wide labour on the market in the NHS, education and other social areas.

The real killer thing for independence though would be federalism. And that is what we really need in the UK.

swatantra's picture

If Murdo is elected then it looks very much like the Scots 'Tories' will declare Independence ... from the Conservative Party.
If Murdo returns them back a century to the Scots Unionists Party then the right could stage a comeback.
Even the SNP is now dampening its drive for Independence. And its more likely and better if we do end up with a Federal Structure for the UK.
We could also do with Regional Govt as well eg Yorkshire, Cornwall and the Eastern Counties are very different in nature.

Marcus's picture

The very last thing the world needs is another Conservative Party.

Arthur Williamson's picture

If there are some, but not all, current Conservative policies which could appeal to the Scottish vote, and this new party focusses on these policies, then this (I think) would be a good idea.

Drew Edward's picture

Interesting tactic but clearly the Tories haven't been paying attention. The reason the Lib Dems were all but wiped out in Scotland is because they collaborated with the Tories. So any deal or alliance with the Westminster Tories will result in a similiar disdain. The reason former Labour heartlands finally started to shift to the SNP after years of courting was because they were finally convinced the 'Tartan Tories' smear was a myth. Still, watching Cameron's party effectively run up the white flag in Scotland will be well worth watching, hope it is televised.

Alexander Mitchell's picture

The thing is the SNP have taken votes from the Tories for years. Tory leaders in Scotland in the Holyrood context are generally quite popular in polling data. It's evident this could work and may help the right in Scotland. But the key opposition group is still Labour and if they don't start to get a grip of where they're going there'll be big problems for any future no campaign. They too need a degree if independence from London, as do Welsh Labour. Not this nuclear option that the Tories seek but more control over policy, campaign tactics and positioning in the political spectrum.

john woods's picture

Good riddance. I'm fed up with subsidising the Glasgow underclass. Let someone else keep em in booze and deep fried mars bars.

Bill Easson's picture

The Scottish Tories may call themselves whatever they wish, but it wOn't stop us SCots despising them

thomcross's picture

the new party title: Conservative Unionist: Tory Scotland (CUTS) Of course it could be :No Tory Scotland

swatantra's picture

Smart fellow. toryism oes not extend its writ to Scotland but the Scots Unionists might get more of a fighting chanceacross the Border. Just like in NI they can create a stink. In fact the Unionists on both sides of the Irish Sea are two of a kind birds of a feather accomplices in keeping the native Scots down in te past.
But having said that the Scots Tories in fact have already morphed into the SNP. Not for nothing is Salmond commonly known as 'Thatcher in a Kilt'.

Lox's picture

Yeah, me too John. I'm also sick of subsidising morris dancing rioters. I know that sentence was complete rubbish, but it makes as much sense as your bewildered generalisation.

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

I understand Scottish Labour Are Doing the Same as Scttish Conservatives Good for them!

Iain's picture

@swatantra nandanwar

'Not for nothing is Salmond commonly known as 'Thatcher in a Kilt'. First time I've ever heard the expression and I live in Scotland. It was just this sort of belief in their own distorted utterances that lead Labour to massive defeat in May.

As to the rest of your post: what does it even mean?

duck soup's picture

Murdo Fraser's plan merely reflects the fact that the SNP is now the centre of gravity of Scottish politics and the more realistic unionists are thinking of adapting.The London based media has been trying to understand Fraser's declaration mostly in terms of Scottish Tories trying to free themselves of the Thatcherite legacy.Fleet Street only seems able to think in terms of the unionist parties failing in Scotland because of mistakes in the past.Instead of realising that that is only part of it.The main reason Labour and the Tories did so badly in the Holyrood election was their refusal to accept the welter of evidence showing that most Scots favour independence or full fiscal autonomy.Contrasting that is the utter feebleness of the constitutional measures in Westminster's current Scotland Bill.As well as Scottish unionists parties' leaderships refusing to put Scotland first instead of continually showing obseqiousness to their London bosses.

Murdo Fraser's plan would likely split the already small Scottish Tories.Fraser's party would then have to compete with the social democratic but pro-enterprise SNP as well as,eventually,the centre right and fully nationalist Scottish Democratic Alliance party which has been building up strength and intends to field election candidates.Murdo Fraser's notional party cannot reverse the flow to full self-government but it could concievably have some modest success and win a few seats.

Stuart Eels's picture

Iain

This might just surprise you, I am an English Nationalist with Scottish relatives and it's the first time I've ever heard that as well.

The way I'm reading it it seems that Swatantra Nandanwar is trying to stir up a racist situation, ignore.

Lox's picture

Good post, Ecosseman. It's also worth noting that Eric Joyce, a Scottish Labour MP, was quoted as urging a move towards full fiscal autonomy as official party policy in Scotland-reinforcing your point that not only is the SNP is the centre of gravity in Scottish politics, but that the consitutional question is going to be the key issue here for the forseeable future. There will be some resistance from dinosaurs-both blue and red-in Scotland, with the former decrying a loss of "Britishness" (whatever that is: does it have any meaning beyond the geographic?), and the latter continuing to parrot the line that constitional change is a distraction from other issues-as though it's an end in itself.

Mel Davis's picture

The new Scottish party should be called 'The Ayrheads' lol!

Livers's picture

Google "thatcher in a kilt" and you'll see journo's branding him this as early as '08.

I guess it just never caught on outside EC1.

Campbell's picture

How about rebranding a "The Whigs"? That should upset the Orange LibDems.

ally's picture

'NOT the Conservative Party Party (honest)' .....and a tree made of a Saltire as a logo.

duck soup's picture

You're absolutely right Lox.The unionists are going to divide across party lines between the realists like Murdo Fraser and,as you say, the dinosaurs.

heid the ba's picture

POCS -Party Of Change, Scotland

A. Cole's picture

Good. Hopefully this will pave the way for a Scotland independent of Westminster....and Labour robbed of the support of all of it's Scottish MPs. RIP LABOUR!!

swatantra's picture

Murdo is a smart fellow. The Tory writ does not extend to Scotland. But a Scots Unionist Party might stand a fighting chance across the Border.
Just like in NI, Unionists can create a stink. History shows that Unionists on both sides of the Irish Sea are two of a kind birds of a feather, accomplices in oppressing the native populations of both NI and Scotland.

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