Vince Cable's speech to conference: Live blog

The Business Secretary addresses Liberal Democrat delegates in Birmingham.

QUICK VERDICT: Cable's delivery today was low-key, but were some unmistakeable jibes at the Tories -- the repeated references to fairness, stimulus, and, of course, the reference to the "ideological descendants of those who sent children up chimneys". There was also a sprinkling of Lib Dem populism with the emphasis on social justice, and fairness -- particularly on limiting executive pay and taxing the rich. Notably, he didn't use the Jaguar and Landrover contracts he opened with to say that the economy was on the home-stretch; nor did he indicate that the next phase of difficulty for ordinary citizens is going to be over any time soon.

12.37: Cable has reiterated his commitment to a mansion tax. "When some critics attack our party policy of a tax on properties over £2 million by saying it is an attack on ordinary middle class owners, you wonder what part of the solar system they live in." Greater tax of land and property was a key theme of his speech last year.

12.36: He keeps returning to the idea of "responsible capitalism".

12.35: "Some of you may have noticed one of the big media companies has had a spot of bother" -- Cable makes a nod to his anti-Murdoch stance without courting controversy too much.

12.32: Living costs are falling, he says, and there is a sense of grievance that workers are paying for a crisis they did not create.

12.31: Cable is talking about investment in infrastructure -- the "stimulus" section of his speech. It's not a word used often by George Osborne, it must be said.

12.29: How do we progress from financial stability to growth, asks Cable. "Panic in the markets will not be stopped by stopping maternity rights," says Cable, assuring delegates he will not provide cover for unscrupulous business-people -- the "ideological descendents of those who sent children up chimneys". This is a jibe at Steve Hilton for some of his more unconventional ideas on workers' rights.

12.26: Cable is criticising the idea that cutting taxes for the wealthy will improve the country's wealth. On the idea that this will encourage tax avoiders back from Monaco, he says: "Pull the other one". Playing to the Lib Dem faithful here.

12.23pm: Vince Cable is calling for "stability, stimulus, and solidarity" to help the economy recover and create a "responsible capitalism". He is criticising Labour's record and saying that financial discipline is not necessarily "right-wing" or "ideological". He says he thinks they are following in the steps of Roy Jenkins. "The progressive agenda of centre left parties cannot be cannot be delivered by bankrupt governments" -- but the really important word here is "stimulus".

12.05pm: Join us at 12.20pm for live updates on Vince Cable's speech. You can read the full transcript of it here.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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Debunking Boris Johnson's claim that energy bills will be lower if we leave the EU

Why the Brexiteers' energy policy is less power to the people and more electric shock.

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have promised that they will end VAT on domestic energy bills if the country votes to leave in the EU referendum. This would save Britain £2bn, or "over £60" per household, they claimed in The Sun this morning.

They are right that this is not something that could be done without leaving the Union. But is such a promise responsible? Might Brexit in fact cost us much more in increased energy bills than an end to VAT could ever hope to save? Quite probably.

Let’s do the maths...

In 2014, the latest year for which figures are available, the UK imported 46 per cent of our total energy supply. Over 20 other countries helped us keep our lights on, from Russian coal to Norwegian gas. And according to Energy Secretary Amber Rudd, this trend is only set to continue (regardless of the potential for domestic fracking), thanks to our declining reserves of North Sea gas and oil.


Click to enlarge.

The reliance on imports makes the UK highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of the pound: the lower its value, the more we have to pay for anything we import. This is a situation that could spell disaster in the case of a Brexit, with the Treasury estimating that a vote to leave could cause the pound to fall by 12 per cent.

So what does this mean for our energy bills? According to December’s figures from the Office of National Statistics, the average UK household spends £25.80 a week on gas, electricity and other fuels, which adds up to £35.7bn a year across the UK. And if roughly 45 per cent (£16.4bn) of that amount is based on imports, then a devaluation of the pound could cause their cost to rise 12 per cent – to £18.4bn.

This would represent a 5.6 per cent increase in our total spending on domestic energy, bringing the annual cost up to £37.7bn, and resulting in a £75 a year rise per average household. That’s £11 more than the Brexiteers have promised removing VAT would reduce bills by. 

This is a rough estimate – and adjustments would have to be made to account for the varying exchange rates of the countries we trade with, as well as the proportion of the energy imports that are allocated to domestic use – but it makes a start at holding Johnson and Gove’s latest figures to account.

Here are five other ways in which leaving the EU could risk soaring energy prices:

We would have less control over EU energy policy

A new report from Chatham House argues that the deeply integrated nature of the UK’s energy system means that we couldn’t simply switch-off the  relationship with the EU. “It would be neither possible nor desirable to ‘unplug’ the UK from Europe’s energy networks,” they argue. “A degree of continued adherence to EU market, environmental and governance rules would be inevitable.”

Exclusion from Europe’s Internal Energy Market could have a long-term negative impact

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Amber Rudd said that a Brexit was likely to produce an “electric shock” for UK energy customers – with costs spiralling upwards “by at least half a billion pounds a year”. This claim was based on Vivid Economic’s report for the National Grid, which warned that if Britain was excluded from the IEM, the potential impact “could be up to £500m per year by the early 2020s”.

Brexit could make our energy supply less secure

Rudd has also stressed  the risks to energy security that a vote to Leave could entail. In a speech made last Thursday, she pointed her finger particularly in the direction of Vladamir Putin and his ability to bloc gas supplies to the UK: “As a bloc of 500 million people we have the power to force Putin’s hand. We can coordinate our response to a crisis.”

It could also choke investment into British energy infrastructure

£45bn was invested in Britain’s energy system from elsewhere in the EU in 2014. But the German industrial conglomerate Siemens, who makes hundreds of the turbines used the UK’s offshore windfarms, has warned that Brexit “could make the UK a less attractive place to do business”.

Petrol costs would also rise

The AA has warned that leaving the EU could cause petrol prices to rise by as much 19p a litre. That’s an extra £10 every time you fill up the family car. More cautious estimates, such as that from the RAC, still see pump prices rising by £2 per tank.

The EU is an invaluable ally in the fight against Climate Change

At a speech at a solar farm in Lincolnshire last Friday, Jeremy Corbyn argued that the need for co-orinated energy policy is now greater than ever “Climate change is one of the greatest fights of our generation and, at a time when the Government has scrapped funding for green projects, it is vital that we remain in the EU so we can keep accessing valuable funding streams to protect our environment.”

Corbyn’s statement builds upon those made by Green Party MEP, Keith Taylor, whose consultations with research groups have stressed the importance of maintaining the EU’s energy efficiency directive: “Outside the EU, the government’s zeal for deregulation will put a kibosh on the progress made on energy efficiency in Britain.”

India Bourke is the New Statesman's editorial assistant.