IMF warns that Osborne may need to delay cuts

UK should consider slowing "planned adjustment" if growth continues to disappoint, says the IMF.

It's only Tuesday but this has already been a bad week for George Osborne. Yesterday it emerged that the structural deficit could be £12bn higher-than-expected, now the IMF, hitherto a strong supporter of the Chancellor's economic strategy, has slashed its growth forecasts for the UK, and has warned that Britain, the US and Germany (all countries where governments can borrow at historically low rates) should "consider delaying some of their planned adjustment" if growth continues to fall short of expectations. In other words, Osborne might well need a "plan B".

Just a month ago, the IMF said that the UK should only consider slowing its deficit reduction plan if it looked as though the economy was headed for a "prolonged period of weak growth, high unemployment and subdued inflation." But now it suggests that weaker-than-expected growth would be justification enough. The consensus, however slowly, is beginning to turn against Osborne and against extreme austerity.

The IMF now predicts that the UK will grow by just 1.1 per cent this year (down from an earlier forecast of 1.5 per cent) and by 1.6 per cent in 2012 (down from 2.3 per cent). If the fund is right, growth will be worse than in 2010 and significantly lower than the OBR's forecast of 1.7 per cent. The IMF has now cut its 2011 UK growth forecast four times in the last year (from 2 per cent, to 1.7 per cent, to 1.5 per cent, to 1.1 per cent). There is every likelihood that it will do so again. The "grey skies" that Vince Cable spoke of yesterday are looking even greyer today.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Donald Trump tweets he is “saddened” – but not about the earthquake in Mexico

Barack Obama and Jeremy Corbyn sent messages of sympathy to Mexico. 

A devastating earthquake in Mexico has killed at least 217 people, with rescue efforts still going on. School children are among the dead.

Around the world, politicians have been quick to offer their sympathy, not least Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose wife hails from Mexico. He tweeted: "My thoughts are with all those affected by today's earthquake in Mexico. Pensando en todos los afectados por el terremoto en México hoy" in the early hours of the morning, UK time.

Barack Obama may no longer be an elected politician, but he too offered a heartfelt message to those suffering, and like Corbyn, he wrote some of it in Spanish. "Thinking about our neighbors in Mexico and all our Mexican-American friends tonight. Cuidense mucho y un fuerte abrazo para todos," he tweeted. 

But what about the man now installed in the White House, Donald Trump? The Wall Builder-in-Chief was not idle on Tuesday night - in fact, he shared a message to the world via Twitter an hour after Obama. He too was "saddened" by what he had heard on Tuesday evening, news that he dubbed "the worst ever".

Yes, that's right. The Emmys viewing figures.

"I was saddened to see how bad the ratings were on the Emmys last night - the worst ever," he tweeted. "Smartest people of them all are the "DEPLORABLES."

No doubt Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto will get round to offering the United States his commiserations soon. 

I'm a mole, innit.