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The coalition's £11bn stealth cut

A technical quirk will allow the government to skim small amounts each year from lower income households.

What's the biggest cut George Osborne has made as Chancellor? Scroll through the Budget Red Book and the answer may surprise you. There's the removal of child benefit from higher rate taxpayers, clocking in at £2.5bn by the end of the parliament, and there's the time limiting of incapacity benefit which will save, eventually, around £1.2bn. But the biggest cut of all makes both moves look like minnows. It's the switch from the Retail Prices Index (RPI) to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) as the measure used to calculate tax credits, benefits and public service pensions. It will save a colossal £11bn a year by 2015-16 -- and you won't be alone if you know nothing about it.

The switch to CPI is the biggest single stealth move by a chancellor in recent memory. And with the money coming mostly from the budgets of lower income households, it's beholden on us to give it a little more attention. The decision was made in Osborne's first budget as Chancellor in June 2010 and it was effective from April this year, at which point the indexing of all benefits, tax credits and public service pensions switched from the higher RPI measure of inflation (currently at 5.2 percent) to the lower CPI (currently at 4.5).

Although the annual differences in the two measures are small -- on average, the CPI has been around 0.7 percentage points lower than the RPI in the past decade -- they quickly get big over time. Cumulatively, prices under the RPI have risen 53.6 per cent since 1996 and by 35.6 per cent on the CPI. Those are dramatic differences in public spending, and they feed through directly into household budgets. If, for example, you're a working parent who received £500 a month in tax credits in 2010, then under the old system, your payments would rise to around £720 by 2020; under the new rules they'll rise to around £625. Have no doubt that a direct cut in benefits of the same level would have aroused considerably more ire.

To date, what little argument there's been over this issue has come down to technical details about the way the two measures of inflation are calculated. Put simply, there are two main differences. First, the CPI covers a smaller basket of goods than the RPI, excluding, for example, mortgage interest payments, Council Tax, vehicle excise duty and TV licenses. Second, each measure is calculated using a different mathematical formula. Now, as you might suspect, this quickly gets horribly complicated (for the masochists there's a full explanation here). But the important point is that, because of this difference in methods, the RPI would be (currently) around one percentage point higher than the CPI even if it covered the same set of goods. That, say some, means that the RPI overstates inflation.

No doubt the stats geeks among us could stay up all night debating such things. But amidst all the back and forth over "RPI versus CPI", there remains an awkward truth for the CPI gang: the reason the CPI is a poor measure of the cost of living is that was never intended to be one. It was invented by statisticians as a macroeconomic tool, not least for use by central banks, that would give a comparable measure of price-changes across different countries. In fact, the reason the CPI excludes certain important costs related to housing (unlike the RPI) is not that they're unimportant, but that European countries couldn't agree on a comparable way of measuring them.

For anyone who's still with me, it should be clear why this has proved such an effective stealth cut. It's complex, it's slow and it's technical. But in this fog of confusion, something critical is at stake. The impact of changes to indexing rules may not be immediate, but it is profound. As Britain's pensioners discovered to their cost in the 1990s, after Margaret Thatcher broke the earnings-link of the state pension, the result of slower annual increases in income reveals itself only slowly; it takes the form of a strange and uncomfortable sense, growing over time, that you're falling behind.

Of course, ultimately this is a decision made in the pursuit of fiscal sustainability. As the Chancellor is fond of saying, in times like these there are tough decisions to be made. But the truth is this £11bn stealth cut is not tough -- it's easy. It means skimming small amounts each year from the budgets of lower income households, in the hope you'll be out the door before they notice. Had the CPI not existed, the Chancellor would have found himself making these decisions up front, and having to justify them, instead of hiding behind a fortuitous statistical quirk.

If there's a lesson in history here for the Chancellor, it's perhaps to take care. Thatcher's decision on pensions is well remembered, and not fondly. And if Osborne is a fan of retro movies, he might do well to the heed the lessons of that 1990s classic, Office Space. In the film, three humdrum office workers come up with a plan to make billions by skimming a fraction of a cent from every transaction at a major US bank. Within hours the money floods in. But then they take too much and start to panic -- and rightly so. If there's one thing that's dangerous about stealth cuts it's the anger of those who find out.

James Plunkett leads the Resolution Foundation's Commission on Living standards.

Tags: Spending Cuts  George Osborne

18 comments

Dave C's picture

The Bank of England links it own pension to RPI, not CPI. Something of a double standard, what what?

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/06/01/bank-of-england%E2%80%99s-pension...

Sid Cumberland's picture

It would be a double standard if the Government was responsible ...

Dave C's picture

So the Government doesn't control the Civil Service?

Luddite's picture

"A technical quirk will allow the government to skim small amounts each year from lower income households". More lies from the discredited left!! Let's not forget every workers over a certain age will have to work one year longer because of Labour's appalling financial mismanagement, that's about £5500 in lost pension payments, and thats no lie!!

AlastairX's picture

"The switch to CPI is the biggest single stealth move by a chancellor in recent memory"

Only if you have a very short memory.

Brown's removal of the pension fund tax credit was raising £5.4bn from pension funds in 1999 money. That is £7.6bn in 2011 money - using your preferred inflation measure, RPI. That compares to the £1.5bn saved this year from the benefits indexation change.

Both have a compounding effect, since leaving the £5.4bn in pensions would have compounded returns over time. And could have boosted the sadly pathetic levels of investment in the economy over the last decade.

Welshwizard's picture

This Coalition move is the biggest misappropriation of earned Pension income, benefits, terms and conditions by a sitting Government since the English Civil War. It represents a disgraceful attack on the incomes of some of the most modest people who have spent a lifetime of public service in the expectation that the Government would honour the contributions they have made. Osborne, Webb, Alexander and their minions insult us by pretending that pensions will still be protected from inflation when it is clear that pensioners will lose thousands of pounds during the course of their retirement as a consequence of the change to CPI. It is called the Government's and the Bank of England's 'preferred measure of inflation' but, guess what boys and girls, MPs and the B of E Monetary Policy Committee's pensions are uplifted by the RPI! Well, it's good enough for the plebs isn't it? However, all is not lost, a Judicial Review will be taking place this October in the High Court to test this measure in law. Let us hope that justice, fairness and integrity triumph in this case, otherwise it will end up in the European Court of Human Rights. There is also an e-petition on the RPI/CPI issue currently on all Public Sector Union Websites and an interesting discussion can be found on WWW.MoneySavingExpert.com. Pensioners past, present and future literally cannot afford to ignore what the Government have done!

Fraziel1's picture

@Luddite, how is it a lie? And this is a tory decision so no need to deflect by bringing in labour.

David Quinn's picture

Obviously a bit of entryism by Coalition wonks here. For example it is obvious that although 0.7% is small in one year the power of compounding makes it very large over a number of years. Todays pensioner may lose 15% by the time he goes to his rewars. A 20 year old today would lose about 40% by the time he retires. Moreover, the reason there is currently only 0.7% difference at the moment is that the things that are left out of CPI have not risen for some time. When the mortgae rate of interest and Council Tax start rising again the difference in the indexes will balloon. Finally, it is not just what is omitted which makes the indexes different; it is the wat CPI is calculated using something called the geometric mean. This is based on the notion that as prices rise we can all go out and buy cheaper things with no loss of quality. It is called substitution. practically speaking it is rubbish and the Royal Statistical Soc say that even if you accept the principle the way the ONS calculates CPI - to do with the size of the baskets of goods they use - makes the difference far too large. So this IS merely a government scam. It is not legitimate. It is infact one of the most wicked scams devised by the Treasury and Chancellor. Like Thatcher's cutting of the income link it will eventually be recognized.

Sid Cumberland's picture

Not sure why you think this is stealthy - it was in all the papers.

thinkov's picture

us union members are well rehearsed in this ridiculous machination

Dave C's picture

Funnily enough the government uses the higher RPI when it suits them. For example, fares in London:

"From 2 January 2012, fares on TfL's services will rise by an average of RPI + 2 per cent, the assumption outlined in TfL's Business Plan in October 2009.

"Based on July's RPI figure of 5 per cent, this represents an average 7 per cent fare increase across TfL services and Oyster pay as you go."

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/media/newscentre/21005.aspx

Dave's picture

Ultimately, they are still going up at a higher rate than pay rises, nobody is currently getting 4.5% pay rises, so i don't see what the problem is.

mcquade's picture

It affects those too who receive no benefits too, Dave. The accountants KPMG have calculated that private-sector and public-sector pension savers will lose up to £250bn over the next 40 years in lost inflation-linked rises.

mcquade's picture

The Royal Statistics Society recently pressed the Office for National Statistics into a review of its use of CPI for benfits and pensions calculations.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/18/cpi-review-benefits-pensi...

mcquade's picture

"it was in all the papers."

With no explanation from the government what the exact impact would be on people's income.

swatantra nandanwar's picture

Fascinating. The differnce between CPI and RPI is quite small 0.7% relatively speaking, so slight that hardly anybody will notice. And if Danny is counting the pennies then skimming off £11bn over several years is chickenfeed. Will the ordinary shopper notice this sleight of hand, or even care? Probably not.
What they will notice is the scale of cuts to public services, like surestartcentres, cuts to school budgets and social care.

Sid Cumberland's picture

You mean no explanation like this: "Pensions minister Steve Webb said there were plans to link pension payments to the typically slower-growing Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation instead of using the RPI."???

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10557675

Sid Cumberland's picture

Oh yes, and there's this: "As Britain's pensioners discovered to their cost in the 1990s, after Margaret Thatcher broke the earnings-link of the state pension ..."

Link now restored by this government.

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