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Will Osborne pick the wrong tax cut?

Rather than abolishing the 50p rate for the few, Osborne should reduce VAT for the many.

Last night George Osborne admitted what everyone already knows to be true: that the Office for Budget Responsibility will be forced to downgrade its growth forecasts for a fourth time this autumn. At best, Britain faces a sustained period of anaemic growth, at worst, it faces a double-dip recession. Consequently, the debate about how to stimulate growth has restarted this morning. In a widely publicised letter to the FT, 20 economists call on Osborne to "drop the 50p tax at the earliest opportunity" and return to an "internationally competitive tax regime".

They are, of course, pushing at an open door. Barely a week goes by without Osborne hinting that he will abolish the 50p rate in the near future. He recently told the Today programme: "I don't see that as a lasting tax rate for Britain because it's very uncompetitive internationally, and people frankly can move." In the US and France, billionaires volunteer to pay more tax. In the UK, the Chancellor suggests that they should pay less.

But leaving the politics of the issue aside, (and 69 per cent of voters, including 60 per cent of Tories, support the retention of the 50p rate), how effective a stimulus would this be? The 50p rate is only paid by the top one per cent (who earn more than £150,000 a year), many of whom will save, rather than spend, any windfall they receive. Rather than prioritising the abolition of the top rate, Osborne should cut those taxes that fall hardest on the low-paid, who spend a higher proportion of their disposable income.

One option, as Ed Balls has argued, is to introduce a temporary reduction in VAT. That would boost consumer spending, lower inflation, protect retail jobs and increase real wages. When Alistair Darling reduced VAT to 15 per cent during the financial crisis, consumers spent £9bn more than they would otherwise have done. A VAT cut today would be a similarly effective fiscal stimulus. As Boris Johnson wisely observed in his Telegraph column in July, "[I]f we were to cut taxes now, it might be best to start with VAT to get people shopping again." Osborne's decision to raise VAT (a measure he described as "permanent") by 2.5 per cent to an all-time high of 20 per cent automatically knocked 0.3 per cent off annual growth (OBR figures).

Osborne is unlikely to scrap the 50p rate until at least 2013, when the public-sector pay freeze ends. The Chancellor, a keen political strategist, won't want to hand a tax cut to the richest 1 per cent until he can provide relief elsewhere. But even then there are other political obstacles.

The Lib Dems are rightly insisting that the 50p rate, if abolished, must be replaced with a range of new property taxes, perhaps including a version of Vince Cable's "mansion tax". Some on the right are also beginning to recognise the case for greater taxation of wealth. Even Osborne, in his Budget speech, promised to look at "the taxation of very high value property".

But if growth is his priority, there is no doubt that the tax Osborne needs to reduce is not the 50p rate but VAT.

38 comments

Neil's picture

Why has the BBC been headlining on this non-story ALL day? I smell a rat.

Andy's picture

Perhaps we can organise a special benefit concert for those affected by the 50% tax-rate? Billionaire-Aid - sponsored by Topshop. Those private jets and luxury yachts aren't going to pay for themselves!

Dave C's picture

Deanne Julius, one of the 20 signatories to the letter, was on the Today programme this morning. When pressed for any evidence for her assertion, she was extremely vague.

swatantra's picture

Of course we all know that the 50% rate is really a political tax o show that 'we're all in this together. It doesn't raise much but compensates for what is lost.
But has Osborne got the decency to admit he was wrong and cut VAT? No.
He'll carry on regardless to save his face, not the country.

Andy's picture

This poor chap has just had to sell his Ferrari Enzo and makes do with just an S-Class Mercedes... please give £2 a month to RichAid, or whatever you can afford to help him.

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

George Osborne should get rid of the 50p Tax rate it was only ment to be a temp measure and it is holding back the economy.
I have heard that you can merge NI and Income Tax with a personal allowance of
£10,000 and a Tax Rate of 40-45% above that You could give 50% rebate on pension income and 25% on rebate for self-employment, a far more progressive system.
Rates would be lower for high earners ,but that means they would have more to spend and invest so generally growth and jobs will be a result of that,but you should only help people who employ others and their should be away to monitor that. There must be other ways of dealing with the rich and tax dodgers but the 50% Tax rate will just damage the country as a whole.

Mizar's picture

We must look after the rich. The poor? We will dispose of them.

That about sums it up.

Andy's picture

I feel so guilty claiming £67.50 JSA a week when I know there are people earning £150k per year that have to pay 50% tax. Where can I donate something to help them? It just isn't fair that they have to pay this much - soon they'll have to send their children to state schools and they'll end up having to get jobs in the City rather than an internship at Tory HQ. How are they going to get a nice safe seat in the House after that?

Gogo's picture

Whether you like it or not people will avoid paying 50% tax; most of the super rich doesn't even pay any tax. Rather than trying to stop avoidance Osborne wants get rid of 50% tax.

Following Osborne's logic one could say if you make over £1 million a year you don't have to pay any tax. This is what is happening in this country.

swatantra's picture

It would be interesting to compare the CV's of an ordinary bloke on JSA and a high flying bizzwizz, and what they've actually done to earn and deserve the enormous salaries they are getting. A lot of them would already had money in the family private elite education and a helping hand into the job market, besides picking up the necessary professional qualifications, which all take time and effort.
The point is that they can afford to pay a higher rate and a wealth tax and a mansion tax without hurting their overall finances. The ordinary Joe can't.

Marcus's picture

A mansion tax would be just as destructive for the economy as the 50% tax band. The only difference is that it would hit more people, raise more taxation and could be lowered easier in order to hit more and more people.

VAT seems the obvious one, or perhaps corporation tax, if the EU would allow us. How about Road Tax?

If we were to lower Corp Tax then we would grow the economy, create jobs and reduce the burden on the state.

Why is nobody talking about this?

Marcus's picture

@JohnP - Unfortunately, we dont. Most of our wealth creators and talent left for the new world during the last brain drain, which occurred during the last top level tax hike..

Awake!'s picture

The UK is now seen as a high tax economy globally.In 25 years gas and oil will run out in UK.
Interstingly, the news on Ireland re debt gone quiet- anyone know why? Why is it that their monstrous debt which is NEVER repayable (simly to big), isn't in the news? I wonder why that is...

kenelm's picture

Marcus ... the new world? Sounds you would educated in the 1930s.

Hugh Markey's picture

Wonderfully disinterested advice.
"Take my case, governor!" The Taxpayers' Alliance advocates fairer taxes not lower taxes. We wouldn't want these bloodhounds on our case looking into our accounts. Never know what they might find.

Flat Cap

matthew fox's picture

@Fast Asleep

It is a well known fact your not my mate.

Marcus's picture

Kenelm ... Sounds you would educated in the 1930s? Sounds like you were not educated.

Awake!'s picture

no one wanting tax hikes will answer the question re Ireland. We must all aspire to the level of the lowest common denominator!! In this way we can all be equal since this goal is achievable... and Rousseau said 'men are born free!'
erm, hang on, he folowed with 'yet everywhere he is in chains'

The chains of imperialist and aristocratic classes, he meant, surely cries the mob... OR are the chains self imposed- was he referring to a spiritual freedom that empowers the individual to further himself and by extension his society, a freedom crushed by the illusion of money and it's 'one-upmanship'... the power of the attention consumed by materialism, then worse turning in on itself, it's own brothers, the green eyed monster rearing it's ugly head...
we defecate into a grade of water that would save the lives of 30 thousand children daily, and yet the outrage of someone paying less than 50%...based on 150K lol- not that peole are starving here, with a 110bn welafre bufget- nope, the argument is based on 150k. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Kenelm's picture

Marcus, a typo, but "the new world" seems from an age ago. In any event, the idea that wealth creators have mostly gone is a fantasy.

mike cobley's picture

As the Independent might have put it: "George Osborne should scrap the 50p top rate of income tax "at the earliest opportunity" to boost richness, a group of leading rich people have said." Yeah, that's right - cut the revenue take while public sector job cuts are also lowering the revenue take. Who's writing Coalition economic policy - the Chuckle Brothers?

Mr. Divine's picture

TV license .. scrap that. It would save on the cost of admin and detection.

Mr. Divine's picture

Kenelm: Marcus is right, people like me left.

Mr. Divine's picture

Yea Marcus road tax .. again save on the cost of admin and detection and paper.

Any other taxes that could save on government admin? You know little ones. Licenses.

Union Steve's picture

the Robin Hood or transaction tax get on with it!

tuttifrutti's picture

I wonder if this was co-ordinated by Mr. Osborne, seems well timed with his speech last night.

Awake!'s picture

nope- nothing on Ireland. Bit like nothing on Darling. We simply don't want something as obvious as a lump of rock and earth called Ireland spoling these carefully crafted tax arguments. nooo way sireeeeeeee... that's not how we do it ... the next election will be won with spin, no probs- the bust will be over in 6 months anyway

matthew fox's picture

Wealth creators, another term invented in the 80's.

How many wealth creators have swiss bank accounts avoiding tax.

Tax evasions costs other taxpayers £15 Billion a year, and not a peep out of the right.

PeterC's picture

I,m intrigued by the concept of a billionaires' voluntary tax. This could possibly be the economic panacea that we have been looking for in the UK. Who could possibly question its fairness ! So lets scrap the 50p rate for all. Then ask all those new billionaires who will be racing to our shores (or off shores) attracted by the lower rate, and, together with those who are already here to repay such generosity by contributing voluntarily to us prols. Can anyone see a snag in this?

Awake!'s picture

the Uk is regarded as a high tax regime by investors and workforce considering relocating- people can argue till the cows come home, but people think this is the thin end of a wedge- kepp the tax, don't keep it whatever- but stop pretending it's not impacting competitiveness- people should man up and have the honesty to say they simply don't think it'rs RIGHT to earn more that 150k without paying at leats 50%.

Maddy's picture

Really great article. Discussed your points on the Catch21.co.uk blog. Check it out!

http://www.catch21.co.uk/2011/09/the-fate-of-the-50p-tax

wightangler's picture

Instead of pandering to self-interest and backers, abolishing 5op top tax rate will not assist uk internal investment since bank commercial loan rates remain untouched- which is the crux of current problems and the vickers whitewash, on it's own, cannot re-balance the 2 tier uk economy that has emerged since de-reg.
Merely, like QE in practice free up further equity for market speculation that ends up further increasing pressure on the capacity of public and private sector base firms to expand because of high borrowing rates.
Indeed, recent history since 2000 shows that hot money attracted will usually only engage if given disproportionate advantage- PFI's, or use funds to buy pritable services forced by privatisation policies of DCLG and health, existing companies - asset strip, use equity for debt dump- or as in US, outsource and relocate in favourable low wage and tax regimes abroad.
Since the personal interests and alliances of senior tories already operate in such favourable conditions -further tax cuts- we all knew this was tory policy intention from day 1!
Why should people be suddenly suprised now?

Awake!'s picture

ahahaha
'or as in US, outsource and relocate in favourable low wage and tax regimes abroad'
hahahaahah

Awake!'s picture

nothing on ireland....just don't fit with the perceived wisdom so we just won't talk about that... nooo sireeeeee
hahahahahaahahahaah

Freeman2's picture

Marcus - 'wealth creators'. Wealth creators? In which way?

Awake!'s picture

'asset strip, use equity for debt dump'
hahahahahahahahahahaah

Awake!'s picture

wealth creators? wealth creators? in which way?
is that areal question? have u heard of an ipad? apple makes 6 biilon profit a quarter, i pad is the ir second biggest item- yes thats right1.5 years ago they didnt exist, 6 billion a quarter profit.
in case u dont know what profit is numpty its agter uve empoled eberyone to design, souce, byuild , distribute the thing, and the tax revenue on thatm the corp tax, income tac, NI tax, road tax, fuel tax, business rates tax, etc
dumbarse-

Awake!'s picture

fox
yes mate it's a well known fact that the staff in apple shops all fuk lff back to switzerland on their private jets once they've finished flogging u an iphone at the end of thei shift.
moron...

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