A poll bounce for the Tories

Latest YouGov poll puts the Tories on 39 per cent, just a point behind Labour.

The latest daily YouGov poll is the most striking for some time. It puts the Conservatives on 39 per cent, just a point behind Labour on 40 per cent. It's the narrowest Labour lead that YouGov has recorded since January and further evidence of a Tory recovery. The party's lead, which stood at nine points on 22 August has gradually eroded over the past week to seven points, five points, three points and now just one point.

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Latest poll (YouGov/Sun): Labour majority of 10

There are various possible explanations for this. The Tories may have benefited from Cameron's robust response to the riots (polls showed that the public favoured disproportionate sentences) and the rebels' victory in Libya may also have aided their cause (public support for the intervention rose as a result). The parliamentary recess also means that there have been fewer of the "bad news" stories that seemed to plague the government earlier this year.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Labour majority of 58

All the usual caveats apply, of course. The poll could be an outlier and we'll have a better idea of the state of play when the next YouGov poll is published tonight. But it certainly sets things up nicely for the conference season.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Sadiq Khan gives Jeremy Corbyn's supporters a lesson on power

The London mayor doused the Labour conference with cold electoral truths. 

There was just one message that Sadiq Khan wanted Labour to take from his conference speech: we need to be “in power”. The party’s most senior elected politician hammered this theme as relentlessly as his “son of a bus driver” line. His obsessive emphasis on “power” (used 38 times) showed how far he fears his party is from office and how misguided he believes Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters are.

Khan arrived on stage to a presidential-style video lauding his mayoral victory (a privilege normally reserved for the leader). But rather than delivering a self-congratulatory speech, he doused the conference with cold electoral truths. With the biggest personal mandate of any British politician in history, he was uniquely placed to do so.

“Labour is not in power in the place that we can have the biggest impact on our country: in parliament,” he lamented. It was a stern rebuke to those who regard the street, rather than the ballot box, as the principal vehicle of change.

Corbyn was mentioned just once, as Khan, who endorsed Owen Smith, acknowledged that “the leadership of our party has now been decided” (“I congratulate Jeremy on his clear victory”). But he was a ghostly presence for the rest of the speech, with Khan declaring “Labour out of power will never ever be good enough”. Though Corbyn joined the standing ovation at the end, he sat motionless during several of the applause lines.

If Khan’s “power” message was the stick, his policy programme was the carrot. Only in office, he said, could Labour tackle the housing crisis, air pollution, gender inequality and hate crime. He spoke hopefully of "winning the mayoral elections next year in Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham", providing further models of campaigning success. 

Khan peroration was his most daring passage: “It’s time to put Labour back in power. It's time for a Labour government. A Labour Prime Minister in Downing Street. A Labour Cabinet. Labour values put into action.” The mayor has already stated that he does not believe Corbyn can fulfil this duty. The question left hanging was whether it would fall to Khan himself to answer the call. If, as he fears, Labour drifts ever further from power, his lustre will only grow.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.