Tory minister Blunt blunders again

Prisons minister says that the riots were a "one-off" event. How can he be so sure?

The prisons minister, Crispin Blunt, who seems to make a habit of embarrassing the government (he promoted the idea of "prison parties" and suggested that soldiers could be used by probation chiefs as cheap labour), has just left a huge hostage to fortune and described the riots as an "exceptional" event that will lead to a "one-off increase" in the prison population. Given that there is every possibility of further civil unrest, his comments are premature to say the least. As Tom Watson observes, there is now a "newly primed timebomb under his career".

Blunt said that he was "completely confident" that the system could cope but the prison population is now at a record high of 86,654, just 1,439 places below operational capacity, and a recent Ministry of Justice memo warned of outbreaks of violence between rioters and serving prisoners. Two young prisoners, who were arrested after the disorder, were hospitalised last week after a "nasty" assault at Cookham Wood Young Offenders Institution in Kent. As the Prison Reform Trust has warned, parts of the system are "becoming human warehouses, doing little more than banging people up in overcrowded conditions, with regimes that are hard pressed to offer any employment or education."

The coalition still plans to cut more than 2,500 prison places but Blunt declared that there would be places "for all those sent to prison by the courts", adding that "we will continue to do that regardless of how many people are sent to prison." Blunt is almost certain to be moved by Cameron at a future reshuffle, so it will be left to his successor to reconcile this pledge with Ken Clarke's ambitious justice reforms.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.