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Germany holds the key to the euro's future

Angela Merkel is the most powerful and most vulnerable player in the debt crisis.

We have had yet another day of turmoil on the markets and yet another example of "kicking the can" by the eurozone's leaders. This morning, with great reluctance, the European Central Bank (ECB) started to buy Italian and Spanish government bonds to pacify panicked financial markets. It has worked today -- bond yields on Spanish and Italian paper have reduced -- but it won't hold for long.

In the last few days, the likes of Herman Van Rompuy and Economic Commissioner Olli Rehn have taken to the airwaves to state that the markets should not be attacking Italy and Spain. On paper, their credit-worthiness looks reasonably sound: Spain's debt to GDP ratio of 60 per cent is lower than that of Britain, Germany and France, while Italy runs, at 4.6 per cent in 2010, one of the lowest budget deficits in the EU.

But this doesn't matter. The banking sector crisis in Spain may not be finished yet, and the country is suffering from chronic unemployment levels. Italy's debt burden is 115 per cent, second only to Greece. More importantly, the markets know that the 21 per cent haircut on Greece's debt burden is probably just the start of large private sector losses, the price of reckless lending. A significant restructuring of Italian or Spanish debt would bankrupt numerous European banks. In particular, Franco-German banks are exposed to nearly €1 trillion of Spanish and Italian debt.

The bond market won't stabilise until the financial sector is satisfied that eurozone debts, or at least most of them, are underwritten. With Germany the largest and richest country, the responsibility for the eurozone's future lies with them, and with the choices facing the eurozone being expensive and politically toxic, this makes Angela Merkel the most powerful and most vulnerable player in the debt crisis.

Maintaining the current eurozone arrangement can only be achieved by swallowing some very bitter pills. Firstly, the funding capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) would need to be increased from €440bn probably to around €1.5-2 trillion so that it could, if required, underwrite a large chunk of Spanish and Italian debt as well as the smaller EU nations.

Secondly, the euro area countries will have to issue common eurobonds. Eurobonds have suddenly become very popular in the UK -- George Osborne, Ed Balls and Nick Clegg now all think they're essential, even though the Treasury was implacably opposed to them a couple of months ago -- and they enjoy support from most centre-left and some liberal parties across the EU. Merkel's Christian Democrat party and their coalition partners, the neo-liberal Free Democrats, view eurobonds with terror. During negotiations on the EU's economic governance package, government ministers and the European Parliament demanded the establishment of a European debt agency to issue eurobonds. Germany was totally opposed, although the European Commission will submit draft legislation on eurobonds to the Parliament and Council this autumn.

Both measures make economic sense. With bond spreads on 10 year paper at over 6 per cent, Italy is not far away from being unable to fund its debt, while Greece, Ireland and Portugal may need to restructure their debts. Guaranteeing a large chunk of that debt and allowing the EFSF to buy Italian (or indeed other country's) bonds would ease the fears of large sovereign defaults. Moreover, with the markets becalmed, EU leaders could reform the governance of the Eurozone and try to resolve the bank capital crisis that has helped create the government debt crisis.

But the costs of these measures are very high, both economically and politically. Germany has already committed guarantees of €119bn out of the €440bn EFSF. Increasing the EFSF's funding capacity to €1.5 trillion or more would require a contribution of up to €500 billion. If that isn't enough to make the German taxpayer's eyes water, then common eurobonds, even with an AAA credit rating, could still be more expensive than Germany's current bonds. To borrow the language of Yes, Minister's Sir Humphrey Appleby, forcing these measures through the Bundestag would be 'brave'. In other words, it would cost Merkel the next election or lead to the collapse of the coalition.

The other alternative is for the eurozone to divide between, broadly speaking, the north and the south using a "hard" and "soft" euro. The economic consequences would be unknown and, to all intents and purposes, this would end the euro project launched less than twenty years ago by Germany and France.

So Chancellor Merkel has the fate of the euro in her hands and we will soon find out how much Germany is prepared to pay for the euro. Don't expect swift resolution of the crisis because kicking the can down the road for a few more months is theoretically possible, even though it is an increasingly expensive exercise in futility.

Ultimately, saving the euro will be expensive and unpopular, but the costs are known. The price of the euro's demise doesn't bear thinking about.

Ben Fox is chairman of GMB Brussels and political adviser to the Socialist vice-president of economic and monetary affairs.

8 comments

Hugh Markey's picture

Several days age, Michael White of the Guardian explained on BBC television that the euro has been a decided advantage to Germany in-so-far-as its exports are concerned. A highly-valued DM would not give Germany the same edge over its competitors. Sneaky!
Once out in the open this currency boost to German exports is pretty obvious. Nevertheless, we can't recall anybody else making this cogent point. Certainly not the Germans.
And how many foreign assets have the Germans snaffled within Europe as a result of this income stream?

Reichsmarschall

Buckskins's picture

"Germany holds the key to the euro's future"

Germany holds the key to Europe, and has done since the 1960's.

LightShaft's picture

Common Merkle get your tits out for the boys...

Luddite's picture

Mrs Merkel seems to be sleepwalking into danger. For all her sound instincts and skills as a politician, she appears to have no vision for the EU. She has been woefully slow to get to grips with the euro zones troubles, largely because German voters do not want to bail out weak countries such as Greece, Ireland and potentially Portugal. And, in her efforts to assure her countrymen that she is imposing Teutonic discipline on the profligate peripherals, she is allowing the euro zones role in forming the EU’s economic policies to be greatly enlarged

Adam's picture

And this week's most self-evident headline is...

Adam's picture

@Hugh Markey, Germany's interest in the Euro wasn't so much as a devalued DM as a stable DM (Germany has in fact typically avoided currency deflation and international demand for its renowned, high quality exports is relatively inelastic).

The DM used to be considered a safe currency and as such varied inversely with the US dollar (much like the Swiss Franc today). By creating what was essentially an expanded DM, the Euro insulated the German export market from random currency fluctuations.

Hugh Markey's picture

@Adam - Appreciate more thorough account of Germany's currency pros and cons.
Suspect the East German mark has had a lot to do with this debacle.
And Angela Merkel is also a product of East German education.
No excuse for rebuilding the Wall!

Ossis

swatantra's picture

Once again Germany seems to be establishing itself as the powerhouse of Europe; Europe's Banker in effect. Europe is in the hands of Germany. This could be a dangerous precedent. Wars have broken out for less. And Britain is powerless to do anything because it is not in the Euro and at the top table. But Bitain will feel the fallout if the Euro were to collapse.
Lets hope that Merkel wins the argument.

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