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Fraser Nelson’s voodoo economics

The claim that the cuts are neither "deep" nor "harsh" does not bear scrutiny.

Spectator editor, Fraser Nelson, set sail for his summer holiday in Sweden yesterday with an extraordinary piece for his Coffee House blog. His article claims to show that the coalition's cuts are neither "deep" nor "harsh" and that they are nearly identical to those proposed by Alistair Darling. It could not be further from the truth.

Nelson's key conceit is to base all his figures on Total Managed Expenditure (TME), which include automatic stabilisers such as unemployment benefits and debt interest. In the long run, everyone should want these to come down but there is no easy way to do this in the short run while unemployment hovers around 7.7 per cent and debt is increasing.

A far better measure of the pace and scale of the cuts is to look at Departmental Expenditure Limits where the bulk of the cuts are taking place. This is the government's discretionary spending and includes a real terms squeeze for the education budget and crippling cuts for many departments such as the 25 per cent facing the Home Office or 27 per cent for local government spending. As we all know, this has resulted in cuts to Education Maintenance Allowances, police numbers, affordable housing and many other local services.

The Treasury's own figures show that the government is planning £95 billion of spending cuts between now and 2015-16. This pain has only just started with £22 billion planned in 2011-12 and much more to come in future years. The impact of these cuts is profound. The Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development have said that the cuts will result in 1.6 million lost jobs across the economy. While it is true that Alistair Darling's cuts would have caused plenty of their own pain Labour was proposing a more modest £51 billion by 2014-15. In other words, for every £8 of coalition cuts, Labour would have cut £5.

Nelson goes on to claim that Osborne's cuts are less severe than those of Denis Healey in the 1970s. Again, he does this using TME figures rather than looking at DELs. Thankfully, the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies made precisely this distinction in their post-Budget analysis. The graph below shows what public spending looks like when those non-discretionary items are taken out.

A

The IFS analysis shows in their own words the "longest, and deepest sustained, period of cuts to public service spending since (at least) WW2"". It is also worth noting that under Denis Healey in 1977-78, inflation was rampant and volatile meaning that the public spending settlement (which was set in cash terms) could result in either a real terms cut or rise depending on the level of inflation that year.

In a later point, Nelson seeks to show that Britain's fiscal consolidation is small by comparison to a range of international comparisons. His examples simply don't stack up since they are either from mid-1990s when small open economies like Sweden, Finland and Ireland were able to offset their spending cuts with export-led growth due to global buoyant demand. Or they are countries from the box marked "basket case". Does even Nelson really want us to emulate Ireland or Greece in cutting until the pips squeak, the eyes bulge, and the country stands on the brink of economic collapse?

Nelson goes on to claim that inflation is the "real villain". Again, there is a contrast with the 1970s. At that time, there was a wage-price spiral meaning that - although bad for the macroeconomy and something we should be avoided at all costs - living standards were keeping pace with inflation. This time around, as Nelson's own graph shows, the squeeze on living standards is due primarily to stagnant wages. Indeed, the squeeze long precedes 2010 and - according to research released by the Resolution Foundation this week - goes back as far as 2003.

Core inflation - stripping out the impact of food and energy prices - actually dropped from 3.3 per cent to 2.8 per cent last month. And economists such as Gavyn Davies as well as politicians like Vince Cable are starting to call for additional quantitative easing. Nelson doesn't call explicitly for an interest rate hike to halt inflation but it would be madness if he did so. As Adam Posen of the Bank of England has said:

"The recent consumer price inflation rates above 4 per cent result from this year's value added tax increase and the recent energy price shock. Removing those factors, UK inflation has averaged 1.5 per cent over the past year - including any remaining effects of sterling's past decline. Of course, higher taxes and energy prices shrink British real incomes, but the monetary policy committee was right not to respond to them, and should not do so now."

As an adherent of "voodoo economics", Nelson, in his sixth point, seeks to lay blame for our economic woes on the 50p rate of tax, which affects only those earning over £12,500 per month. The experience of his favourite holiday destination, Sweden, alongside Denmark - where the tax take has risen since the 1960s with no impact on growth - shows that there is little evidence for this theory as Lane Kenworthy has shown in an exhaustive blog on the topic.

Today's growth figures are a wake up call and show that growth has been anaemic since September. Indeed, 2011 growth is likely to come in at less than half the level originally predicted by the Office of Budget Responsibility in June 2010. Fraser Nelson and his friend's remedy of tax cuts, more spending cuts, and interest rate hikes are a recipe from the discredited text books of the 1980s. Only a sensible approach which makes proper use of the available data can lead us out of this mess.

Will Straw is Associate Director at IPPR

Tags: Spending Cuts

15 comments

David Wearing1's picture

Charles Moore said recently that right-wingers had to realise that the left is winnning the big political arguments at the moment. Well here's why. Nelson's little story will convince or comfort people like him, who would feel no pain from the cuts anyway. Ordinary people, losing the services that they and their families rely on, losing their jobs, and taking major hits to their pay and pensions, will be forced to confront the economic reality whether Nelson and his ilk want to or not.

But still, if the right-wing wants to come across as a bunch of swivel-eyed religious fanatics, then why should we stop them?

littlejohnuk's picture

And Labour's solution is what precisely? Can you point me in the direction of the url etc that gives me the detailed figures.Ta.

swatantra nandanwar's picture

I have to say that there is an element of truth in what Frazer Nelson says: Labour would have taken similar measures to the Tory Coalition and their Lib Dem accomplicies, the only difference being that the 'cuts' wuld not have been so severe.
The Tory Coalition had setout in March last year savage cuts, only to retreat and retreat and u turn on practically every thing they had proposed, so the landscape looks pretty much as Labour would have had it.
The Tory rednecks are pretty livid at having backtracked on austerity by dogma; they would have preferred seeing mass unemployment and cuts to wages.

BenM's picture

The Right and its commentariat is only good for dissembling.

Its policy "Prescriptions" have totally failed.

Bill Kristol-Balls's picture

This is a rather long winded way of saying that if your total spending in a given year falls by 1%, but your mortgage payments double, you'll have less money to spend on hookers and coke.

Simplify, simplify as Thoreau said

p j wall's picture

I always laugh when i see Fraser Nelson, he`s so lightweight and so far up the Tories hoop, i can`t take him serious, he`s also got one of those Condescending stupid grins when he talks at you!!, and he talks like Miss Jean Brodie!!, all in all he talks out of his ANUS!!, has`nt got a clue about the real world..

Homo Sapiens's picture

My impression is that Brown, Balls and Ed M are all much more Keynesian by conviction than Darling, and were very reluctant before the election for Labour to be committed to any timetable of deficit reduction until the economy had started to pick up.

I think Darling insisted, and Balls cannot convincingly backtrack now, as he tried to do in his leadership campaign.

Mr Danger's picture

The Left and its commentariat is only good for dissembling.

Its policy "Prescriptions" have totally failed.

FA's picture

But Nelson is correct that the cuts aren't very different to those proposed by Alistair Darling. Darling's plan was slightly less, slightly slower. Only Ed Balls has argued against cutting and he was slapped down for it (for now).

As for inflation being the problem - inflation is government and Bank of England policy. One of the reasons for the cuts is to enable lower interest rates. The government's policy is to inflate our debts away as far as possible.

To an extent its a sound policy. The bit that's missing so far is a growth strategy - and growth and public spending are not the same thing. Something Will Straw should remember. Now let's see what Vince Cable comes up with - he's been better on the economy than any other front-bencher since 1997.

AlastairX's picture

I agree that fiscal stimulus based on tax cuts are "voodoo economics". It is especially true for a temporary tax cut enabled only by borrowing more; necessarily requiring a future tax rise to pay back that debt. As George Eaton said today - consumers are not stupid, they will compensate for this and save the tax cut.

How then is it that the single specific fiscal policy proposal that Labour have come up with is exactly such a piece of voodoo economics - a temporary cut to VAT?

And why on earth should we give Labour any credibility, given their new found conversion to this voodoo economics? The voodoo economics embraced by Thatcher and Reagan, no less; those popular left wing icons.

teacher_'s picture

Whilst I believe Labour's economic policies are badly lacking in certain respects, it is absolutely right to monitor and analyse the techniques of Tory economic spin and not everybody is able or inclined to be as thorough as Will Straw. A good article.

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

George Osborne needs to stick with his plan A with prehaps tax cuts to businesses and a few other adaptions!
With the instability of the world economy it is very important to remove us from the danger zone as soon as possible not the Darling/ Balls idea of keeping us in it for as long as possible.
As mentioned before Labours spending plan would have resulted in the annual deficit being 14% GPD and it would have continued to grow!
Also where is Edward Miliband i know he finds the economy rather boring unlike his hacking moment but he needs to show the country that he backs his shadow chancellor after all The shadow Business Secretary has stated that Labour had done a very good job during the last few years in goverment ( Sorry Tony Blair!)

Mr Danger's picture

I'm glad you liked to the Nelson article, a far better one than this. I recommend people here avoid reading it and instead simply make silly comments about how the Tories want to kill the poor.

The Nelson article makes excellent points that Straw cannot address and therefore does not mention. It is conventional wisdom here that coalition cuts have caused slow growth - yet there haven't cuts of any significance yet. Fraser points out this inconvenient fact.

And I think anyone can understand that 3.4% real terms cuts over 4 years is hardly a wild swing of the axe. Straw can find a way to torture the data until it confesses, but in the end it is 3.4% over four years.

And Nelson also point out that under the lunatic condem slash and burn budget apocalypse, debt rises 51%. Under Brown it would have risen 59%. Straw skips over that inconvenient number too.

In fact the great irony of the Nelson article is that it points out that hardly anyone - coalition or labour, or the media for that matter - ever quantify exactly how large the cuts are. Straw 'refutes' the article by covering up the figures one more time. 3.4% over four years - is Straw afraid to repeat the number?

And finally:

"Does even Nelson really want us to emulate Ireland or Greece in cutting until the pips squeak, the eyes bulge, and the country stands on the brink of economic collapse?"

Wait a second - are you saying that the problems in Greece are a result of too little government spending?

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