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Greek bailout sets Europe on collision course with Tories

There's an aspect of the eurozone crisis that has yet to register with the British public.

The leaders of eurozone member countries did a deal to bail out Greece for the simple and compelling reason that failure to do so would have indicated that the entire single currency project was unsustainable. It doesn't take much effort of imagination to picture how financial markets would have responded to that revelation. Few things concentrate the mind like the threat of total economic meltdown.

So, for their European leaders' ability to recognise imminent catastrophe and avoid it at the last minute two cheers at most. Greece will be allowed to default in a relatively orderly fashion; its creditors will be cajoled, bribed and strong-armed into sharing some of the pain. (A good summary, of the deal, not too laden with technical jargon, is here).

Bear in mind that a lot of Greek sovereign debt is held by European banks, so while everyone is calling this a bailout of Athens, really Germany and France are staving off a financial crisis in their domestic markets too -- indirectly they are bailing out themselves.

That fact underlies an aspect of the eurozone crisis that has yet to register with the British public. The essential flaw that has been revealed in the architecture of the single currency is the lack of institutional mechanisms to correct economic imbalances between member states. Or, in English, you can't have a currency union without much closer coordination of economic policy. In that respect, the eurosceptics were right about one big thing: this was a political project from the start, demanding something like a European federal system to work.

That is now surely what will start to emerge. The systems being put in place to bailout Greece are only meant for Greece - in theory. In reality they provide the basis for a longer term structure for transfers between euro members in difficulty. The question then becomes: what are the penalties for those members that end up needing bailing out? The answer, inevitably, is some surrender of control over economic policy. This has already happened in Greece. Athens is implementing a brutal austerity package designed according to the demands of financial markets and foreign creditors, not the will of Greek politicians or voters.

In other words, if euro members collectively want to retain some control of their economic affairs and not be constantly reacting in disorderly panic to the whim of global capital markets they need to pool more sovereignty. They need to form something like a euro finance ministry and you don't have to be a fanatical eurosceptic to see in that the birth of a euro state.

Where does that leave Britain? The EU now looks very likely to head towards the "two tier" model that some French and German politicians, endlessly frustrated by British ambivalence, have long advocated. We would have an inner core with a single currency and closer political integration and an outer layer with different money but still a single market. To many Conservatives that sounds like a dream come true -- the open trade part of the EU but without the constant nagging of Berlin and Paris to harmonise every law and policy in sight.

But the idea that Britain could customise a perfect semi-detached relationship with Europe is a bit of a fantasy. Most of out integration with Europe -- those legendary regulations that Ukip and the Tory right seem to think render us all in perpetual bondage to Brussels -- are driven by the demands to harmonise standards and thereby allow free movement of goods within the single market. In other words, forget the single currency. Even as an "outer tier" member we'd want to retain a seat at the top table in order to have a say in the drafting of regulation. Brussels as the political bogeyman wouldn't just go away -- and our relations there would be tougher because the eurozone "inner tier" countries would (quite reasonably) try to exclude Britain from all sorts of crucial decisions.

In particular, it is hard to imagine Berlin and Paris accepting the continued dominance of European finance by the City of London. There is already a lot of muttering in the City to the effect that France has tried to use the credit crunch and banking crisis as an excuse to pursue a longheld agenda of smothering Britain's competitive financial advantages in regulation. That is bound to become a fault line in the next few years as European leaders try to build new institutional remedies to the crisis out of the short-term fixes agreed in relation to Greece.

What this all means is that there is going to be (yet) another round of negotiations over political integration. Britain might want to look on from the sidelines, but it will have to get involved in some capacity. That in turn will give the Tory right ample opportunity to demand the referendum it has always wanted on the whole question of EU membership. Like it or not, this Greek bailout has started a chain of events that brings European politics to the door of 10 Downing Street, via backbench Conservative MPs in a frenzy of righteous indignation. When that happens, David Cameron will be nostalgic for the phone-hacking scandal.

17 comments

trev1959ad's picture

Don't run away with the idea that its just the Tory right that are concerned with this question. As a Socialist there aren't many things I can agree with the true blue Tories on but,on the question of a referendum,I agree completely.The sooner the British people get the chance to have their democratic voice heard the better and I,for one,want us OUT.

south pacific's picture

On our TV news i heard Cameron say British export of 40% go to Europe.

Two things. I am amazed that Britain still has something other countries want to buy apart from Scotch Wiskey.

If you still suppose to export 40% to Europe and you are shut out economically you better prepare yourself for third world conditions.
I don't live in Europe. Where I live the only thing British i see in the shops is HP sauce and Scotch Wiskey.

I don't consume either.

There are plenty of German cars and beer plus spirits about.

My advice produce something others want to buy. The Chinese do that's why they don't have debts.

Armiter's picture

This isnt a matter of Left or Right, or party politics. It is about democracy pure and simple. The vast majority of the British People demands an IN or OUT referendum on the EU. Politicians no longer have a mandate to keep us in the EU against our national will.

Luddite's picture

The European financial crisis is far from over. It's time to give the British people that long promised democratic vote. Speaking as a socialist' i don't fear the will of the majority, unlike many on the political extreme-left.

lusina's picture

The Euro zone has only patched up its troubles temporarily. Soon we'll have other defaulting countries. Italy, the third largest economic power in Europe (and also a world power in that regard)has avoided a crisis by passing an urgent "austerity" plan. Be assured,and I, for one, knows Italy quite well, this is all whitewash. Italy will not implement the plan - not with its present weak government surviving only on its PR ability, not with its political infighting both internally in terms of coalition government as well as externally with an energetic but disparate opposition. In a few months Italy will be on the brink. A strong alternative government seems a far-fetched dream. In this scenario it is likely that Europe will implode because a defaulting Italy will leave a huge gaping hole in Europe's financial markets. The European Banks will simply throw up their hands unable to stop the ensuing tsunami. This will drag the world to an unprecedented crisis. So far our smiling politicians (in ex-conference photo sessions)have proved incapable of structuring a long-lasting solution to the constantly emerging problems in the Euro zone. One great crisis follows the other. I can perceive that Europe and the world will soon face a 1929 situation. It will come suddenly on one black Monday morning. With regards to the UK, it will be dragged along in the huge tsunami of events. Sitting on the sidelines as this article implies will only worsen the situation for the UK. As the storm breaks the UK government can only cry foul, but otherwise prove totally ineffective and its strident voice completely sidelined. Osborne is proving to be not only a 'vanishing' chancellor in the local scenario but also an inconspicuous European (and more so) a world figure.

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Indu Pendent's picture

"But the idea that Britain could customise a perfect semi-detached relationship with Europe is a bit of a fantasy"

Rafael, didnt know you were a Libdem.

Lox's picture

Lusina, I don't think you can blaim Osborne for being ineffectual in this situation. The populations of the EU countries-almost all of them-have been betrayed by politicians on both left and right. Was there a belief that fiscal union would follow on inevitably from monetary union before the cracks started to show?
At the next general election in every country in Europe, I hope this will be the major issue-that some Greek politician will have the balls to say to bailouts and urge a devalued drachma instead, and that some German will admit to the German people that Greek, Irish, Spanish and Italian debts are neither their fault nor their responsibility .

South Pacific, you're arguing for a free trade zone-which is exactly what Europe (and, indeed, the entire world) should be. Political integration really isn't necessary to make that work.

Eddy S's picture

the UK just needs to ensure it can wind down it's exposure to the mess that will ensue - if this is possible, this obviously means reducing any gov't debt we hold in euro zone countries whether held by banks or our government. this will mean interest in all western gov't debt will increase including our own.

in terms of pro-growth it needs to reduce business taxes, increase gov't spend on infrastructure but reduce significantly gov't spend on admin style jobs.

Lox's picture

If you think this can be used in some partisan argument in UK politics to lash the Tories with, you're wrong. Hopefully it'll polarise pro and anti EU opinion in both major UK parties: the sooner Europe reaches a tipping point, the better.
The EU-with it's drive for continuing integration-is a malformed abortion; ill-conceived, corrupted, and profoundly immoral in it's cynical protectionism and internal horse trading. Within months, I'd bet there'll be yet another summit where the European political class will try to hold the whole shitty edifice together. Fiscal union might be a result at some point-but it'll never last, thankfully.

Whig's picture

Let's let the EU do to our financial services industry what they did to our fishing industry. The financial industry in the UK pays pensions, wages and taxes and it employs tens of thousands of people.

We know we pay in to the EU more than we get back. We know it devastated our fishing industry. We know the Common Agricultural Policy is wasteful, unfair to poor countries and inefficient. We know the single currency is not suitable for the UK economy. We know we have a trade deficit with Europe. So those are all the disadvantages.

Can anyone mention the advantages of being in the EU ? Nothing airy fairy please just measurable, tangible economic benefits. Let me save you some time - there are none!

Livers's picture

Wow. The most shocking claim I have seen here in a long while. Luddite claims to be a socialist!

Tom's picture

Part of the problem is that much of the U.K. MSM refuses to look at facts in these bailouts. They're necessary, the Euro will survive this and other talking points.

Actually, none of that's true. The Euro is one of the weakest currencies. Germany is NOT happy to be carrying much of the Greece bailout burden. But the media refuses to deal with reality.

Mr Danger's picture

spell check:

"by the City of London if the UK."

"Most of out integration with Europe"

Mladen Matosevic's picture

Rather simple question: Does UK prefer to be one of big boys in federal Europe, satellite of USA or EU, or Chinese lunch? Time when you could do it alone is over...

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